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Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Finally. NEW YORK, N.Y.—Roberto Alomar, a 12-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winning second baseman, and Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winning pitcher who ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in balloting verified by Ernst & Young.
See below the fold for the full voting results.
90.0% Roberto Alomar (523)
79.7% Bert Blyleven (463)
—————————————-
62.1% Barry Larkin (361)
53.5% Jack Morris (311)
45.4% Lee Smith (263)
41.7% Jeff Bagwell (242)
37.5% Tim Raines (218)
32.9% Edgar Martinez (191)
24.3% Alan Trammell (141)
20.3% Larry Walker (118)
19.8% Mark McGwire (115)
17.9% Fred McGriff (104)
15.3% Dave Parker (89)
13.6% Don Mattingly (79)
12.6% Dale Murphy (73)
10.0% Rafael Palmeiro (64)
5.2% Juan Gonzalez (30)
—————————————-
4.8% Harold Baines (28)
4.6% John Franco (27)
2.1% Kevin Brown (12)
1.0% Tino Martinez (6)
0.7% Marquis Grissom (4)
0.7% Al Leiter (4)
0.7% John Olerud (4)
0.3% BJ Surhoff (2)
0.2% Bret Boone (1)
0.2% Benito Santiago (1)
0.0% Carlos Baerga (0)
0.0% Lenny Harris (0)
0.0% Bobby Higginson (0)
0.0% Charles Johnson (0)
0.0% Raul Mondesi (0)
0.0% Kirk Rueter (0)
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On a less negative note, hooray Alomar and Blyleven!
RiceBlylevenMorris2 down, one to go
And apparently confessing and apologizing is a bad idea based on McGwire's total.
It's hard to see how anyone else on this ballot - except Bagwell - ever makes it. I personally think Raines, Trammell, and Edgar should make it but they have a lot of ground to cover...
Also can't believe that Kevin Brown only got 1% of the votes. He's a borderline HOF case (great rate stats, questionable career value + intangibles) that deserves a lot more than 1 year on the ballot. Might be the worst 'one and out' since Whitaker and Grich. Same goes for Olerud whose stats trump his perception (good fielding + high OBP will do that)
From the point of view of the writers, Brown:
1) Didn't have great career win total
2) Never won a Cy Young
3) Wasn't anything special in the post-season
4) Failed in New York
5) Had a brutally overpaid contract
6) Was a collosal ####### to deal with
7) Was named in the Mitchell Report
With all that, it doesn't surprise me that he's a one-and-done guy.
I was within 3 percent with 14 of the 18 candidates I predicted a specific voting percentage for.
It's the BBWAA... you'd likely get a more informed electorate down at your local BPOE hall.
He's not allowed to disagree with Bob Costas on how much they helped his career, to paraphrase Costas on MLB Network.
Other MLB Network follies: they had a live remote video interview with Alomar, who was in Toronto for the announcement, but didn't even do a phoner with Blyleven. Was he completely unavailable? Instead we got a live video remote with MLB Network employee Larkin about not getting voted in.
Also, the roundtable discussion at the end with Costas, Verducci, Heyman, and Gammons was comedy gold. Costas launched the thing by saying he wasn't there to pass moral judgments, and then he, Heyman, and Verducci proceeded to spend the next ten minutes passing one moral judgment after another. Gammons was the only one attempting to introduce even a hint of nuanced discussion.
Bagwell, Larkin and Raines all look to be in good shape for eventual induction. I don't see any reason for Larkin not to make it next year.
Brown is a shame, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a special committee sometime in the future putting him back on the ballot. (heck he should find a way to pitch one inning in the majors so he could join Jose Rijo as a player to appear in the majors after receiving a vote)
In recent memory that is at least two people who deserves serious consideration, who have fallen off of the ballot in one and done(Whiatker is the other)
Only 53% of the BBWAA voters ever saw games in the 1980s?
I can think of at least four things that this sentence might mean.
It's a very good starting point. In the history of BBWAA voting, excluding guys still on the ballot, the highest first-year vote for someone who is still NOT in Cooperstown: Steve Garvey 41.6%. Jeff Bagwell just got 41.7%.
So in the history the history of BBWAA voting (again, excluding those still on the ballot) no one's started as high as Bagwell and not gone in eventually. (Sure it's splitting hairs with Garvey, but even round 'em off to 42% and he's doing as good as the highest to ever not go in. That's not a bad sign).
That's no guarantee the BBWAA puts him in obviously, especially with the (totally unfounded, in his case) 'roids rumors, but - getting back to the quote I'm responding to - it IS a really good starting point.
Can you refresh my memory of who comes ON the ballot next year, that provides fresh competition?
And Will Clark.
Raines HAS momentum. His vote totals by year:
2008 24.3%
2009 22.6% (Rickey Henderson shows up, makes Raines pale in comparison)
2010 30.4%
2011 37.5%
Next year has a weak batch of first-year guys, so I'd expect Raines to get around 45%. If he's lucky, he could even squirt to the 50% area.
Then he'll flounder with the rest of the backlog in the 2013-14. Depending how he weathers that storm (and depending how the BBWAA handles that period), Raines could be a Blyleven-esque guy that goes in after over a decade on the ballot.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml
Bernie Williams is the strongest candidate next year, so there shouldn't be much fresh competition.
So it's Bernie, and a whole bunch of guys who won't get 5%.
EDIT: cokes to like everyone
Brown dropping off is a shame. Yes, he was kind of a jerk, he didn't have a gajillion wins, and there's a steroid taint, but the voters still failed here... Brown was damn near twice the pitcher Jack Morris was.
RiceBlylevenMorris2 down, one to go
Just wait until Omar Vizquel joins the ballot.
Yeah. The wild card is the 2013-14 deluge and how that plays out, but they're in good shape as it stands.
Larkin has a ridiculously excellent shot to go in next year.
THREE FUN FACTS ABOUT THE 2012 ELECTION:
1) New guys likely to break 5%: Bernie Williams
2) Total votes/ballot for returning backloggers: 3.98. (This year's total vote was 5.98, but that includes Alomar, Blylveen, Parker (who just ran out of time), and the under 5 percenters).
3) Lowest votes per ballot in BBWAA history: 5.35.
So .. .the backlog as a whole could experience a 25% rise, Bernie could get 25% of the votes (I can't see him doing that well) -- and you could still get the lowest votes/ballot in BBWAA history.
Keep in mind, the guys at the top of the backlog normally have the biggest jumps in their vote.
Yeah, Larkin goes in 2012. The only thing stopping him is some sort of steroid charge or indictment for betting on baseball or some similar massive and unexpected fall from grace. Otherwise, he's going in.
Bagwell is the new Blyleven, so we still have 2.
Congrats to 2 deserving candidates. Larkin next year, I hope. Can Lederer apply his mojo for Trammell perhaps?
I expect he'll do significantly better than Alan Trammell has.
Notable guys who fell under 5% their first year
Kevin Brown
Will Clark
Joe Carter
Ted Simmons
Lou Whitaker
Bobby Grich
Dave Stieb
B. J. Surhoff
Reggie Smith
Bill Freehan
Jose Cruz
Jimmy Wynn
I'm sure there's a few other sabermetric darlings I missed.
Lima Time!
Let's assume for the moment that Bagwell and McGwire have roughly equal credentials (I don't think I'm abusing history too badly comparing them as equals) The way I interpret the voting means that roughly twice as many voters will vote for a strong candidate that is suspected of juicing as one who is sure of juicing.
What that means for Bagwell in the future, I have no clue. But I'll tell you one thing, if he was juicing and wants to get in, he better not admit it and ask for forgiveness.
On Kevin Brown... he never really *felt* like a HOFer to me throughout his career. Of course, that might have to do with the fact that there were some very great pitchers around during Brown's best years (Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro). Of course, looking at his stats shows that he probably should be inducted, but maybe he was just overshadowed by the other greats pitching in the 90s and early aughts.
Fun fact: Alomar set a record -- highest percentage of the vote ever by someone who isn't a first-year candidate. No other such person ever hit the 90%s before.
Sure, but what about Smith and John Franco? Their closer numbers are fairly similar, yet Smith gets over 45% while Franco is shown the door.
I don't think he deserves to be in, but Dan Quisenberry should have merited serious consideration as he was at least as good as Bruce Sutter. But he was a one and done.
Lee Smith is the Jim Rice of relief pitchers. He brings TEH FEAR. He will be elected sooner or later.
Bret Saberhagen. Eric Davis.
This was kind of a big year for Morris. He needed to make a fair jump so he'd have a shot next year. Instead, he only picks up 29 votes. Next year he might maybe crack 60 but then the deluge hits. He's ######.
Wow, Brad Radke is up next year? Crazy how time flies. He's probably the second best new candidate after Bernie.
Jeff Bagwell has good but not great career HR and RBI totals, and his career batting average is under .300. His case as slam-dunk Hall of Famer is dependent on the understanding of (a) park effects, (b) the value of OBP, (c) the value of defense and baserunning from a 1B. He was never going to be a first-ballot guy. I expect Bagwell to get a significant boost next year, up to something in the mid-50s at least.
The guy whose vote total we should watch to determine the percentage of writers who will deny HoF membership based on nothing but intuition is Mike Piazza. He'd be another 95 percenter, like McGwire, if everyone was sure he was clean. That's the guy to watch, so we've still got two years before we get an answer.
Start preparing your plan of attack for the Veteran's Committee. Tram's a lost cause with the BBWAA. He simply doesn't have enough time to make up the ground.
Rock's the better candidate to throw the SABR weight behind.
Vast majority? really? I know a few did (and wasn't one - Jeff Pearlman - not even a voter?)
And Bagwell isn't the sort of person I'd expect to go in the first year anyway. Quoting from my prediction column:
The BBWAA voting process is a 15-year conversation. When the conversation begins with so many saying he belongs, it's a dang good sign.
Again, steroids rumors DO complicate matters. He may end up going in via the VC. That wouldn't surprise me really. But he's off to a good start.
ANOTHER FUN FACT -- here is a complete list of all players who ever topped 50% of the BBWAA vote even once and haven't since been elected into Cooperstown (not including guys still on the ballot):
Gil Hodges.
That's it.
And watch them overreact by skipping the 2013 ballot and going back to the every-other-year arrangement.
As someone with no memory at all of his years with the Rangers, who was unaware of his sub-2 ERA with the Marlins, I just think his career is so different from other great pitchers of his era. Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Mussina, Pettitte all seemed ageless. Brown was so much better in the first half of his career than the last half of his career, it seems like he didn't impress very much overall. Same might happen with...Josh Beckett maybe?
I guess in the end, he'll get the induction he deserves. I'm still not sure Brown deserves induction, but he sure as heck deserved more than 12 votes. I guess I should be more upset about cases like his than cases like Bagwell's, but in the end, leaving Brown out of the Hall isn't a travesty, but Bagwell receiving fewer votes than Lee Smith is insane.
Congrats to the two winners. A richly deserved honor.
I think you might be right that the shape of Brown's career is what did him in (that and the steroids). I'd compare Brown with Dwight Evans and Jim Edmonds, deserving lower-tier Hall of Famers who were passed over and will be passed over far too quickly.
Roberto Alomar...............+126
Bert Blyleven...................+63
Barry Larkin....................+83
Tim Raines......................+54
Jack Morris....................+29
Alan Trammell...................+20
Dale Murphy....................+10
Lee Smith.........................+8
Dave Parker......................+7
Edgar Martinez..................-4
Harold Baines....................-5
Don Mattingly....................-8
Fred McGriff....................-12
Mark McGwire....................-13
Lee Smith's vote totals:
2003 42.3%
2004 36.6%
2005 38.8%
2006 45.0%
2007 39.8%
2008 43.3%
2009 44.5%
2010 47.3%
2011 45.3%
That's a candidate spinning his wheels. He'll be the first reliever the VC will seriously consider. I have no idea what that means for his prospects. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes in. Then again, he's now third in saves (and a distant third). He could fall further by the time the VC looks at him. He's the candidate I have the shakier feel for.
Second things second: BERT FINALLY MADE IT! I'd suggest a primer-wide party in celebration, if we weren't scattered all over the world.
Other things:
The one I'm surprised by is Juan Gonzalez. I was expecting the Primer crowd to moan about how he somehow got 40% of the vote or something. Instead, almost nothing.
Morris has to pick up 20+% of the vote next year or he won't make it in through the front door. He hasn't got enough time left to survive the deluge. It could happen, but it would require a big jump.
Walker's debute looks too low to make it, but BB started at 17%, so there's a chance.
Tim Salmon also has a case for second best new candidate.
Thanks; I was wondering/planning to look that up later - you just saved me the time...
PREDICTION: Sun will rise in east. Water will continue to be wet.
I've been saying for awhile that Jack had almost no shot with the BBWAA, and was a near lock through some future functioning VC. Today only strengthens my opinion.
Yeah. If it wasn't for Repoz's tally, I would've guessed Walker finishing around 3%. Shows what I know.
Exactly.
I thought if he had a nice bump he could make a desperation run next year, but he barely moved. Once the deluge arrives in 2013, Morris won't have a chance and run out of time.
Lucky him the VC has been reestablished in a more induction-friendly format than the old SuperFriends version.
then again, tim raines should have been a first ballot HOFer...
i don't think hodges should have made it - but on the player+manager front, when will joe torre get in?
Tinker/Evers
Rizzuto/Gordon
Reese/Robinson
Ripken/Alomar
Any I'm missing?
He actually had more WAR as an Indian.
As soon as he's eligible. The modern branch of the VC doesn't meet for three more years. Assuming he hasn't taken a job with another team, he'll go in then, and so will Bobby Cox.
Frankie Frisch/Dave Bancroft, 1922-23 NYG
Frankie Frisch/Travis Jackson, 1924, 1926 NYG
George Kelly/Travis Jackson, 1925 NYG
Rogers Hornsy/Travis Jackson, 1927 NYG
:-P
Frish/Durocher, 1933-35 STL. Yes, this is stretching it - but they are both in, albiet one as a manager.
this is a black day for the a.u.b.d.!!!
He only has two more ballots after next year, both of which will be chock full of Hall of Fame worthy ballplayers. Even if he makes up some nice ground next year without a Blyleven in front of him, the deluge will drown him.
I am encouraged by Larkin's vote total. Very promising.
Evers/Maranville, 1914-16 Braves. (Which means they've both been in multiple combinations)
B.Herman/Reese, 1941-42 Dodgers
Doerr/Cronin, 1938-41 Red Sox
Fox/Aparicio, 1956-62 White Sox
Lazzeri/Durocher, 1929 Yanks (again, that's stretching it)
Gordon/Rizzuto, 1946 Yanks
Alomar/Ripken, 1996 Orioles - but NOT 1997 or 1998, when Ripken was at third
That's it for pre-expansion teams, as well as those listed previously.
shows the voters understand positional adjustment and value defense in the outfield more than at first base and give Walker credit for being the better baserunner. I don't really see any thing other than a superficial similarity between these two candidates. Of course Mattingly staying on the ballot while Clark dropped off is a shame.
Whitaker/Trammell
Yeah, it's happening.
Others who got a majority of holdouts won over: Duke Snider, Luis Aparicio, Robin Roberts, Rich Gossage.
According to that logic, Chris, we should add:
Gehrig/Lazzeri
Murray/Ripken
Kelly/Frisch
Bottomley/Hornsby
Perez/Morgan
And then there's Yount/Molitor.
Let's say only Larkin gets in for 2012. In 2013 we get 7 strong candidates (Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton). Based on Bagwell/Mac/Palmeiro's/Brown's performances, there's no guarantee any of the roiders makes it given the steroid stink.
Let's say they elect Piazza and Biggio. There's still 5 big names left from this class, plus the current holdovers. Then in 2014, we get Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mussina, Kent. With five major holdovers from 2013, plus Bagwell and Smith, where is everyone going to go on a 10-man ballot?
Say Maddux, Glavine, Thomas make it in 2014. They are replaced plus one in 2015 by Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, and Sheffield!
Basically, there's just not enough room on a 10-man ballot to prevent Trammell, Mac, RAffy, Walker, maybe even Edgar, Smith, or Raines from sliding off of it.
Go to 15 or 20 names starting in 2013 and the problem pretty much goes away. Hell, they could just make it so they can list as many as they want and the process would work better with so many candidates.
[Edited last sentence for clarity.]
How so? Assuming Larkin gets in next year, Morris will be the top returning candidate, either him or Bagwell. The 2013 "deluge" consists of the following:
Bonds - steroids
Clemens - steroids
Piazza - steroids
Sosa - steroids
Schilling - comparable to Morris
Biggio
I'd happily bet a bbr sponsorship on Morris making it in by 2013.
According to that logic, Chris, we should add:
Gehrig/Lazzeri
Murray/Ripken
Kelly/Frisch
Bottomley/Hornsby
Perez/Morgan
No - B-Ref listed Kelly as the team's starting second baseman that year. (And Jackson, of course, was still their shortstop).
Yeah, it surprised me too, but there it is.
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