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Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Alomar, Blyleven Elected to Hall of Fame

Finally.

NEW YORK, N.Y.—Roberto Alomar, a 12-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winning second baseman, and Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winning pitcher who ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in balloting verified by Ernst & Young.

See below the fold for the full voting results.

90.0% Roberto Alomar (523)
79.7% Bert Blyleven (463)
—————————————-
62.1% Barry Larkin (361)
53.5% Jack Morris (311)
45.4% Lee Smith (263)
41.7% Jeff Bagwell (242)
37.5% Tim Raines (218)
32.9% Edgar Martinez (191)
24.3% Alan Trammell (141)
20.3% Larry Walker (118)
19.8% Mark McGwire (115)
17.9% Fred McGriff (104)
15.3% Dave Parker (89)
13.6% Don Mattingly (79)
12.6% Dale Murphy (73)
10.0% Rafael Palmeiro (64)
5.2% Juan Gonzalez (30)
—————————————-
4.8% Harold Baines (28)
4.6% John Franco (27)
2.1% Kevin Brown (12)
1.0% Tino Martinez (6)
0.7% Marquis Grissom (4)
0.7% Al Leiter (4)
0.7% John Olerud (4)
0.3% BJ Surhoff (2)
0.2% Bret Boone (1)
0.2% Benito Santiago (1)
0.0% Carlos Baerga (0)
0.0% Lenny Harris (0)
0.0% Bobby Higginson (0)
0.0% Charles Johnson (0)
0.0% Raul Mondesi (0)
0.0% Kirk Rueter (0)

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:04 PM | 245 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3724187)
Never mind Morris, Lee frickin' Smith outpolls Bagwell and Raines. Hilarious.

On a less negative note, hooray Alomar and Blyleven!
   2. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:16 PM (#3724188)
substrates for unending primer HOF threads:
Rice Blyleven Morris

2 down, one to go
   3. Esoteric Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:16 PM (#3724190)
Kevin Brown with 2.1% of the vote, one-and-done on the ballot. Oof.
   4. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#3724193)
I'm surprised Bagwell came in that low. Also figured Brown would be in the 10-20% range instead of one-and-done.
   5. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#3724196)
Any of the folks care to enlighten me about the significance of Bagwell's 41%? That seems like a really good starting point. Raines with his second straight big jump too.

And apparently confessing and apologizing is a bad idea based on McGwire's total.
   6. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#3724197)
So is Raines gaining momentum?
   7. Cabbage Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:21 PM (#3724198)
John Franco more than doubles Kevin Brown's vote.
   8. rudygamble Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#3724199)
Happy for Alomar and Blyleven. Good to see Larkin jump 10 points - have a feeling he'll make it next year.

It's hard to see how anyone else on this ballot - except Bagwell - ever makes it. I personally think Raines, Trammell, and Edgar should make it but they have a lot of ground to cover...

Also can't believe that Kevin Brown only got 1% of the votes. He's a borderline HOF case (great rate stats, questionable career value + intangibles) that deserves a lot more than 1 year on the ballot. Might be the worst 'one and out' since Whitaker and Grich. Same goes for Olerud whose stats trump his perception (good fielding + high OBP will do that)
   9. RJ in TO Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:26 PM (#3724201)
Also figured Brown would be in the 10-20% range instead of one-and-done.

From the point of view of the writers, Brown:
1) Didn't have great career win total
2) Never won a Cy Young
3) Wasn't anything special in the post-season
4) Failed in New York
5) Had a brutally overpaid contract
6) Was a collosal ####### to deal with
7) Was named in the Mitchell Report

With all that, it doesn't surprise me that he's a one-and-done guy.
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#3724202)
The cognitive dissonance between Lee Smith and Edgar Martinez's vote totals is astounding.
   11. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:28 PM (#3724203)
Me vs. Reality

I was within 3 percent with 14 of the 18 candidates I predicted a specific voting percentage for.
   12. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#3724204)
Remember how there was a witch-hunt to find people who left Rickey Henderson off their ballots? I kind of want to start another one to find the second person who voted for BJ Surhoff.
   13. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#3724205)
Now let us never speak of him again.
   14. Coot Veal and Cot Deal's cols=“100” rows=“20” Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#3724206)
John Franco more than doubles Kevin Brown's vote.


It's the BBWAA... you'd likely get a more informed electorate down at your local BPOE hall.
   15. Chip Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:30 PM (#3724207)
And apparently confessing and apologizing is a bad idea based on McGwire's total.


He's not allowed to disagree with Bob Costas on how much they helped his career, to paraphrase Costas on MLB Network.

Other MLB Network follies: they had a live remote video interview with Alomar, who was in Toronto for the announcement, but didn't even do a phoner with Blyleven. Was he completely unavailable? Instead we got a live video remote with MLB Network employee Larkin about not getting voted in.

Also, the roundtable discussion at the end with Costas, Verducci, Heyman, and Gammons was comedy gold. Costas launched the thing by saying he wasn't there to pass moral judgments, and then he, Heyman, and Verducci proceeded to spend the next ten minutes passing one moral judgment after another. Gammons was the only one attempting to introduce even a hint of nuanced discussion.
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:31 PM (#3724209)
I was pretty sure Brown wasn't going to make it, just too many other names to vote for and due to character issues, he was going to be the guy left off of the ballot.

Bagwell, Larkin and Raines all look to be in good shape for eventual induction. I don't see any reason for Larkin not to make it next year.

Brown is a shame, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a special committee sometime in the future putting him back on the ballot. (heck he should find a way to pitch one inning in the majors so he could join Jose Rijo as a player to appear in the majors after receiving a vote)

In recent memory that is at least two people who deserves serious consideration, who have fallen off of the ballot in one and done(Whiatker is the other)
   17. Greg Goosen at 30 Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:32 PM (#3724210)
Last year Alomar was within spitting distance of Cooperstown. This year he cruises in comfortably. But when you expectorate in someone's face, you have to expect consequences.

Only 53% of the BBWAA voters ever saw games in the 1980s?
   18. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#3724211)
[5] 41% would be a good starting point if the issue was "not quite a first ballot talent." But if you read any articles, you'd see the vast majority of Bagwell non-votes came from people who thought he did steroids.
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#3724212)
The cognitive dissonance between Lee Smith and Edgar Martinez's vote totals is astounding.

I can think of at least four things that this sentence might mean.
   20. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:33 PM (#3724213)
Any of the folks care to enlighten me about the significance of Bagwell's 41%? That seems like a really good starting point. Raines with his second straight big jump too.

It's a very good starting point. In the history of BBWAA voting, excluding guys still on the ballot, the highest first-year vote for someone who is still NOT in Cooperstown: Steve Garvey 41.6%. Jeff Bagwell just got 41.7%.

So in the history the history of BBWAA voting (again, excluding those still on the ballot) no one's started as high as Bagwell and not gone in eventually. (Sure it's splitting hairs with Garvey, but even round 'em off to 42% and he's doing as good as the highest to ever not go in. That's not a bad sign).

That's no guarantee the BBWAA puts him in obviously, especially with the (totally unfounded, in his case) 'roids rumors, but - getting back to the quote I'm responding to - it IS a really good starting point.
   21. Tim Wallach was my Hero Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:34 PM (#3724214)
No love for MondesiI I mean, he was never a HoFer, but no vote at all? It seems a little radical to me. Also, I expected Olerud and Brown would at least stay on the ballot.
   22. bfan Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#3724216)
Bagwell, Larkin and Raines all look to be in good shape for eventual induction. I don't see any reason for Larkin not to make it next year.


Can you refresh my memory of who comes ON the ballot next year, that provides fresh competition?
   23. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:37 PM (#3724217)
In recent memory that is at least two people who deserves serious consideration, who have fallen off of the ballot in one and done(Whiatker is the other)


And Will Clark.
   24. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3724218)
So is Raines gaining momentum?

Raines HAS momentum. His vote totals by year:

2008 24.3%
2009 22.6% (Rickey Henderson shows up, makes Raines pale in comparison)
2010 30.4%
2011 37.5%

Next year has a weak batch of first-year guys, so I'd expect Raines to get around 45%. If he's lucky, he could even squirt to the 50% area.

Then he'll flounder with the rest of the backlog in the 2013-14. Depending how he weathers that storm (and depending how the BBWAA handles that period), Raines could be a Blyleven-esque guy that goes in after over a decade on the ballot.
   25. Guapo Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3724219)
I'm having this vision of Rich Lederer sitting at a computer laughing maniacally, as he floods ebay with thousands upon thousands of Bert Blyleven baseball cards.
   26. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3724220)
As far as guys you'd expect to get a courtesy vote or two for being a cool guy, Kirk Rueter's goose egg is a surprise.
   27. Sean Forman Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:39 PM (#3724221)
   28. rudygamble Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:40 PM (#3724223)
[12] - I just wish Rollie Fingers hung around a couple extra years with the Brewers because he and Surhoff would've rivaled the Doug Fister-Adam Moore battery for best of all time.
   29. Juan V Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:40 PM (#3724224)
Can you refresh my memory of who comes ON the ballot next year, that provides fresh competition?


Bernie Williams is the strongest candidate next year, so there shouldn't be much fresh competition.
   30. oscar madisox Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:40 PM (#3724225)
Re 22. Only Bernie Williams of any consequence
   31. RJ in TO Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#3724227)
Next year's ballot.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml


So it's Bernie, and a whole bunch of guys who won't get 5%.
   32. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#3724226)
Can you refresh my memory of who comes ON the ballot next year, that provides fresh competition?
Bernie Williams is the best player joining the ballot, and no one else in the 2012 is going to poll over 5% (B-R 2012 HoF eligibles list). Everyone in the top six or seven should get a nice boost.

EDIT: cokes to like everyone
   33. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:41 PM (#3724228)
Also, I'd just like to say: Congratulations Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven!
   34. The Good Face Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:43 PM (#3724229)
Larkin probably goes in next year, and well deserved. Not so sure about Bagwell's longer term prospects. I think a fair number of voters assumed he was a juicer and based their "no" votes on that. If he doesn't see a significant jump in next year's voting, that's the most likely reason.

Brown dropping off is a shame. Yes, he was kind of a jerk, he didn't have a gajillion wins, and there's a steroid taint, but the voters still failed here... Brown was damn near twice the pitcher Jack Morris was.
   35. DL from MN Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#3724230)
Bernie Williams is the only new candidate expected to draw > 5%
   36. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3724231)
Rice Blyleven Morris

2 down, one to go


Just wait until Omar Vizquel joins the ballot.
   37. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3724233)
Bagwell, Larkin and Raines all look to be in good shape for eventual induction. I don't see any reason for Larkin not to make it next year.

Yeah. The wild card is the 2013-14 deluge and how that plays out, but they're in good shape as it stands.

Larkin has a ridiculously excellent shot to go in next year.

THREE FUN FACTS ABOUT THE 2012 ELECTION:

1) New guys likely to break 5%: Bernie Williams

2) Total votes/ballot for returning backloggers: 3.98. (This year's total vote was 5.98, but that includes Alomar, Blylveen, Parker (who just ran out of time), and the under 5 percenters).

3) Lowest votes per ballot in BBWAA history: 5.35.

So .. .the backlog as a whole could experience a 25% rise, Bernie could get 25% of the votes (I can't see him doing that well) -- and you could still get the lowest votes/ballot in BBWAA history.

Keep in mind, the guys at the top of the backlog normally have the biggest jumps in their vote.


Yeah, Larkin goes in 2012. The only thing stopping him is some sort of steroid charge or indictment for betting on baseball or some similar massive and unexpected fall from grace. Otherwise, he's going in.
   38. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:49 PM (#3724235)
substrates for unending primer HOF threads:
Rice Blyleven Morris

2 down, one to go


Bagwell is the new Blyleven, so we still have 2.

Congrats to 2 deserving candidates. Larkin next year, I hope. Can Lederer apply his mojo for Trammell perhaps?
   39. Coot Veal and Cot Deal's cols=“100” rows=“20” Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:50 PM (#3724236)
Just wait until Omar Vizquel joins the ballot.


I expect he'll do significantly better than Alan Trammell has.
   40. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:51 PM (#3724237)
In recent memory that is at least two people who deserves serious consideration, who have fallen off of the ballot in one and done(Whiatker is the other)

Notable guys who fell under 5% their first year

Kevin Brown
Will Clark
Joe Carter
Ted Simmons
Lou Whitaker
Bobby Grich
Dave Stieb
B. J. Surhoff
Reggie Smith
Bill Freehan
Jose Cruz
Jimmy Wynn

I'm sure there's a few other sabermetric darlings I missed.
   41. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3724240)
Next year's ballot.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2012.shtml

Lima Time!
   42. Solly Hemus Use Rogaine Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3724241)
Any of the folks care to enlighten me about the significance of Bagwell's 41%? That seems like a really good starting point. Raines with his second straight big jump too.


Let's assume for the moment that Bagwell and McGwire have roughly equal credentials (I don't think I'm abusing history too badly comparing them as equals) The way I interpret the voting means that roughly twice as many voters will vote for a strong candidate that is suspected of juicing as one who is sure of juicing.

What that means for Bagwell in the future, I have no clue. But I'll tell you one thing, if he was juicing and wants to get in, he better not admit it and ask for forgiveness.
   43. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3724242)
Thanks to the b-ref.com folks for putting up last year's vote alongside this year's percentages. FWIW, Smith, McGwire, Edgar, McGriff, and Mattingly all lost voters this year.

On Kevin Brown... he never really *felt* like a HOFer to me throughout his career. Of course, that might have to do with the fact that there were some very great pitchers around during Brown's best years (Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro). Of course, looking at his stats shows that he probably should be inducted, but maybe he was just overshadowed by the other greats pitching in the 90s and early aughts.
   44. Every Inge Counts Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3724243)
What can we do to get Alan Trammell into the Hall of Fame....or start getting more votes.
   45. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3724244)
Last year Alomar was within spitting distance of Cooperstown. This year he cruises in comfortably.

Fun fact: Alomar set a record -- highest percentage of the vote ever by someone who isn't a first-year candidate. No other such person ever hit the 90%s before.
   46. JE (Jason Epstein) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3724245)
The cognitive dissonance between Lee Smith and Edgar Martinez's vote totals is astounding.

Sure, but what about Smith and John Franco? Their closer numbers are fairly similar, yet Smith gets over 45% while Franco is shown the door.
   47. scareduck Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3724248)
Hallelujah. Congrats to both men.
   48. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3724250)

In recent memory that is at least two people who deserves serious consideration, who have fallen off of the ballot in one and done(Whiatker is the other)


I don't think he deserves to be in, but Dan Quisenberry should have merited serious consideration as he was at least as good as Bruce Sutter. But he was a one and done.
   49. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:56 PM (#3724251)
Sure, but what about Smith and John Franco? Their closer numbers are fairly similar, yet Smith gets over 45% while Franco is shown the door.

Lee Smith is the Jim Rice of relief pitchers. He brings TEH FEAR. He will be elected sooner or later.
   50. Shock Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3724252)

I'm sure there's a few other sabermetric darlings I missed.


Bret Saberhagen. Eric Davis.

This was kind of a big year for Morris. He needed to make a fair jump so he'd have a shot next year. Instead, he only picks up 29 votes. Next year he might maybe crack 60 but then the deluge hits. He's ######.

Wow, Brad Radke is up next year? Crazy how time flies. He's probably the second best new candidate after Bernie.
   51. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#3724254)
Let's assume for the moment that Bagwell and McGwire have roughly equal credentials (I don't think I'm abusing history too badly comparing them as equals) The way I interpret the voting means that roughly twice as many voters will vote for a strong candidate that is suspected of juicing as one who is sure of juicing.
I don't think they have remotely similar BBWAA credentials. Mark McGwire without the roids is a 95% first ballot Hall of Famer - the guy who broke Maris' record and hit homers all the time.

Jeff Bagwell has good but not great career HR and RBI totals, and his career batting average is under .300. His case as slam-dunk Hall of Famer is dependent on the understanding of (a) park effects, (b) the value of OBP, (c) the value of defense and baserunning from a 1B. He was never going to be a first-ballot guy. I expect Bagwell to get a significant boost next year, up to something in the mid-50s at least.

The guy whose vote total we should watch to determine the percentage of writers who will deny HoF membership based on nothing but intuition is Mike Piazza. He'd be another 95 percenter, like McGwire, if everyone was sure he was clean. That's the guy to watch, so we've still got two years before we get an answer.
   52. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#3724255)
What can we do to get Alan Trammell into the Hall of Fame....or start getting more votes.


Start preparing your plan of attack for the Veteran's Committee. Tram's a lost cause with the BBWAA. He simply doesn't have enough time to make up the ground.

Rock's the better candidate to throw the SABR weight behind.
   53. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#3724256)
[5] 41% would be a good starting point if the issue was "not quite a first ballot talent." But if you read any articles, you'd see the vast majority of Bagwell non-votes came from people who thought he did steroids.

Vast majority? really? I know a few did (and wasn't one - Jeff Pearlman - not even a voter?)

And Bagwell isn't the sort of person I'd expect to go in the first year anyway. Quoting from my prediction column:

Bagwell's the best candidate of the new crowd, but he has no chance to go in this year. Forget steroid gossip. It's just hard to go in the first year period. It's the nature of the process: over 500 people tallying their ballots individually and then mailing them in. The guys who make it in their first year need a special hook. It could be a big, glossy number: 3,000 hits, 300 wins, 500 homers. It could be a special distinction: best defensive shortstop ever, the ultimate closer, but they need some special hook to separate them from the "average" great candidate. You need something so that you could look at the guy for three seconds and decide he belongs.

Bagwell lacks that hook. He's the modern-day Johnny Mize: he could hit, slug, and draw walks, but he missed all the magic markers, and his career was too short. Bagwell's numbers were better because there was no WWII, and so he'll do better than Mize (who got into Cooperstown via the VC), but he lacks that hook.

Bagwell's candidacy reminds me a bit of Ryne Sandberg and Barry Larkin. They're not similar players, but both were clear Hall of Famers who got nowhere near 75 percent in their first go-around. Instead, they each finished at around 50 percent. If it wasn't for steroids, I'd put the over/under for Bagwell this year at 50 percent. Maybe a little higher, but around there. Toss in evidence-free steroid suspicion, and I have to mark him down a bit.


The BBWAA voting process is a 15-year conversation. When the conversation begins with so many saying he belongs, it's a dang good sign.

Again, steroids rumors DO complicate matters. He may end up going in via the VC. That wouldn't surprise me really. But he's off to a good start.

ANOTHER FUN FACT -- here is a complete list of all players who ever topped 50% of the BBWAA vote even once and haven't since been elected into Cooperstown (not including guys still on the ballot):

Gil Hodges.

That's it.
   54. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#3724257)
So .. .the backlog as a whole could experience a 25% rise, Bernie could get 25% of the votes (I can't see him doing that well) -- and you could still get the lowest votes/ballot in BBWAA history.


And watch them overreact by skipping the 2013 ballot and going back to the every-other-year arrangement.
   55. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:00 PM (#3724258)
Isn't it odd that Larry Walker gets over 20% when Wll Clark was one-and-done? Both slugggers, both with clutch heroics, both had trouble playing more than 130 games a season, both ended their careers with the Cardinals and didn't try to hang on for too long...

On Kevin Brown... he never really *felt* like a HOFer to me throughout his career. Of course, that might have to do with the fact that there were some very great pitchers around during Brown's best years (Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro). Of course, looking at his stats shows that he probably should be inducted, but maybe he was just overshadowed by the other greats pitching in the 90s and early aughts.


As someone with no memory at all of his years with the Rangers, who was unaware of his sub-2 ERA with the Marlins, I just think his career is so different from other great pitchers of his era. Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Mussina, Pettitte all seemed ageless. Brown was so much better in the first half of his career than the last half of his career, it seems like he didn't impress very much overall. Same might happen with...Josh Beckett maybe?
   56. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:00 PM (#3724260)
Honkbal reigns supreme.
   57. Cat Named Manny Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:02 PM (#3724262)
The Bagwell voting is so atrocious that even Karl Ravitch on SportsCenter, who I've never associated with cutting-edge baseball thought, didn't bother trying to conceal his disbelief that a player with Bagwell's amazing numbers and zero evidence of any steroid use of any kind attached to him (beyond his physical appearance, of course) was left off more than half the ballots. Bagwell is well positioned to eventually be inducted after the glut clears, which is good, but he should be poised to go in with Larkin next year, not sitting below 50 percent.

I guess in the end, he'll get the induction he deserves. I'm still not sure Brown deserves induction, but he sure as heck deserved more than 12 votes. I guess I should be more upset about cases like his than cases like Bagwell's, but in the end, leaving Brown out of the Hall isn't a travesty, but Bagwell receiving fewer votes than Lee Smith is insane.

Congrats to the two winners. A richly deserved honor.
   58. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:04 PM (#3724263)
Crispix - do you mean that the second half of Brown's career was better than the first half?

I think you might be right that the shape of Brown's career is what did him in (that and the steroids). I'd compare Brown with Dwight Evans and Jim Edmonds, deserving lower-tier Hall of Famers who were passed over and will be passed over far too quickly.
   59. Srul Itza Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:05 PM (#3724264)
Changes in raw vote numbers:

Roberto Alomar...............+126
Bert Blyleven...................+63
Barry Larkin....................+83
Tim Raines......................+54
Jack Morris....................+29
Alan Trammell...................+20
Dale Murphy....................+10
Lee Smith.........................+8
Dave Parker......................+7
Edgar Martinez..................-4
Harold Baines....................-5
Don Mattingly....................-8
Fred McGriff....................-12
Mark McGwire....................-13
   60. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:05 PM (#3724265)
Lee Smith is the Jim Rice of relief pitchers. He brings TEH FEAR. He will be elected sooner or later.

Lee Smith's vote totals:

2003 42.3%
2004 36.6%
2005 38.8%
2006 45.0%
2007 39.8%
2008 43.3%
2009 44.5%
2010 47.3%
2011 45.3%

That's a candidate spinning his wheels. He'll be the first reliever the VC will seriously consider. I have no idea what that means for his prospects. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes in. Then again, he's now third in saves (and a distant third). He could fall further by the time the VC looks at him. He's the candidate I have the shakier feel for.
   61. Ziggy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#3724266)
First things first, congratulations to Blyleven and Alomar.

Second things second: BERT FINALLY MADE IT! I'd suggest a primer-wide party in celebration, if we weren't scattered all over the world.

Other things:

The one I'm surprised by is Juan Gonzalez. I was expecting the Primer crowd to moan about how he somehow got 40% of the vote or something. Instead, almost nothing.
Morris has to pick up 20+% of the vote next year or he won't make it in through the front door. He hasn't got enough time left to survive the deluge. It could happen, but it would require a big jump.
Walker's debute looks too low to make it, but BB started at 17%, so there's a chance.
   62. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#3724269)
Has Bernie actually retired yet?
   63. Ziggy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#3724268)
dp
   64. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:08 PM (#3724270)
ANOTHER FUN FACT -- here is a complete list of all players who ever topped 50% of the BBWAA vote even once and haven't since been elected into Cooperstown (not including guys still on the ballot):

Gil Hodges.
PREDICTION: Jack Morris will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2017.
   65. RJ in TO Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:09 PM (#3724271)
Wow, Brad Radke is up next year? Crazy how time flies. He's probably the second best new candidate after Bernie.


Tim Salmon also has a case for second best new candidate.
   66. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#3724273)
Alomar/Non1stYr: No other such person ever hit the 90%s before.
Thanks; I was wondering/planning to look that up later - you just saved me the time...
   67. RJ in TO Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#3724274)
PREDICTION: Jack Morris will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2017.

PREDICTION: Sun will rise in east. Water will continue to be wet.
   68. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#3724275)
PREDICTION: Jack Morris will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2017.


I've been saying for awhile that Jack had almost no shot with the BBWAA, and was a near lock through some future functioning VC. Today only strengthens my opinion.
   69. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:19 PM (#3724282)
Isn't it odd that Larry Walker gets over 20% when Wll Clark was one-and-done?

Yeah. If it wasn't for Repoz's tally, I would've guessed Walker finishing around 3%. Shows what I know.
   70. DL from MN Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:22 PM (#3724285)
Jack Morris will be the new Gil Hodges, close but no cigar.
   71. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:24 PM (#3724288)
PREDICTION: Jack Morris will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2017.

Exactly.

I thought if he had a nice bump he could make a desperation run next year, but he barely moved. Once the deluge arrives in 2013, Morris won't have a chance and run out of time.

Lucky him the VC has been reestablished in a more induction-friendly format than the old SuperFriends version.
   72. DanG Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:28 PM (#3724290)
Start preparing your plan of attack for the Veteran's Committee. Tram's a lost cause with the BBWAA. He simply doesn't have enough time to make up the ground.

Rock's the better candidate to throw the SABR weight behind.
Yes, exactly what I was going to say. Thanks for saying it.
   73. bob gee Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:33 PM (#3724293)
i'm glad blyleven finally made it. *when he retired*, i thought he'd have a 5-7 year wait. i never thought it would be this long.

then again, tim raines should have been a first ballot HOFer...


i don't think hodges should have made it - but on the player+manager front, when will joe torre get in?
   74. AndrewJ Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:34 PM (#3724294)
So the '96-'98 Orioles had a HOF double-play combo... Haven't been too many of those, have there?

Tinker/Evers
Rizzuto/Gordon
Reese/Robinson
Ripken/Alomar

Any I'm missing?
   75. AndrewJ Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:35 PM (#3724295)
And congrats to Alomar and Blyleven.
   76. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:38 PM (#3724298)
Boudreau/Gordon, and if you count having a Bill James list named after you, you can throw in Ken Keltner to that.
   77. Guapo Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:40 PM (#3724301)
Alomar is getting a Blue Jays cap I assume?

He actually had more WAR as an Indian.
   78. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:43 PM (#3724302)
but on the player+manager front, when will joe torre get in?

As soon as he's eligible. The modern branch of the VC doesn't meet for three more years. Assuming he hasn't taken a job with another team, he'll go in then, and so will Bobby Cox.
   79. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:44 PM (#3724303)
Jack Morris will be far and away the best pitcher on the ballot next year (apologies to Lee Smith whose best credential has substantially faded). On that basis alone I think Morris is about to get a big boost. Maybe not enough for induction but probably enough to give hom the momentum for eventual election through the BBWAA.
   80. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:46 PM (#3724306)
Any I'm missing?

Frankie Frisch/Dave Bancroft, 1922-23 NYG
Frankie Frisch/Travis Jackson, 1924, 1926 NYG
George Kelly/Travis Jackson, 1925 NYG
Rogers Hornsy/Travis Jackson, 1927 NYG
   81. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:47 PM (#3724307)
Any I'm missing?
Jeter/Cano.

:-P
   82. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:51 PM (#3724311)
Frisch/Maranville, 1928 STL (both BBWAA picks, so can't blame Frisch here)
Frish/Durocher, 1933-35 STL. Yes, this is stretching it - but they are both in, albiet one as a manager.
   83. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:52 PM (#3724312)
Alomar is getting a Blue Jays cap I assume?

He actually had more WAR as an Indian.
Strike.
   84. phredbird Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:53 PM (#3724314)
Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winning pitcher who ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame


this is a black day for the a.u.b.d.!!!
   85. SoSH U at work Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:54 PM (#3724316)
On that basis alone I think Morris is about to get a big boost. Maybe not enough for induction but probably enough to give hom the momentum for eventual election through the BBWAA.


He only has two more ballots after next year, both of which will be chock full of Hall of Fame worthy ballplayers. Even if he makes up some nice ground next year without a Blyleven in front of him, the deluge will drown him.
   86. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:54 PM (#3724317)
Congratulations to Blyleven and Alomar.

I am encouraged by Larkin's vote total. Very promising.
   87. Best Regards, President of Comfort Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:55 PM (#3724318)
Jack Morris will be far and away the best pitcher on the ballot next year (apologies to Lee Smith whose best credential has substantially faded). On that basis alone I think Morris is about to get a big boost. Maybe not enough for induction but probably enough to give hom the momentum for eventual election through the BBWAA.
I don't see it. He's not going to make it next year, and he's going to get buried by the 2013 ballot.
   88. alkeiper Posted: January 05, 2011 at 10:56 PM (#3724319)
Carl Everett is up next year. Which is crazy to me considering I saw him play in the Atlantic League last season.
   89. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#3724323)
More HoF DP combinations:

Evers/Maranville, 1914-16 Braves. (Which means they've both been in multiple combinations)
B.Herman/Reese, 1941-42 Dodgers
Doerr/Cronin, 1938-41 Red Sox
Fox/Aparicio, 1956-62 White Sox
Lazzeri/Durocher, 1929 Yanks (again, that's stretching it)
Gordon/Rizzuto, 1946 Yanks
Alomar/Ripken, 1996 Orioles - but NOT 1997 or 1998, when Ripken was at third

That's it for pre-expansion teams, as well as those listed previously.
   90. cardsfanboy Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:07 PM (#3724325)
Isn't it odd that Larry Walker gets over 20% when Wll Clark was one-and-done? Both slugggers, both with clutch heroics, both had trouble playing more than 130 games a season, both ended their careers with the Cardinals and didn't try to hang on for too long...


shows the voters understand positional adjustment and value defense in the outfield more than at first base and give Walker credit for being the better baserunner. I don't really see any thing other than a superficial similarity between these two candidates. Of course Mattingly staying on the ballot while Clark dropped off is a shame.
   91. rudygamble Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:14 PM (#3724329)
Should be a HOF DP combination:

Whitaker/Trammell
   92. Shock Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:19 PM (#3724332)
99 Indians Vizquel/Alomar

Yeah, it's happening.
   93. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:20 PM (#3724333)
Alomar set another record: 62% of those who didn't vote him last time went for him this time. The old record was 56% by Yogi Berra.

Others who got a majority of holdouts won over: Duke Snider, Luis Aparicio, Robin Roberts, Rich Gossage.
   94. Don Malcolm Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#3724335)
George Kelly/Travis Jackson, 1925 NYG

According to that logic, Chris, we should add:

Gehrig/Lazzeri
Murray/Ripken
Kelly/Frisch
Bottomley/Hornsby
Perez/Morgan

And then there's Yount/Molitor.
   95. Danny Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#3724336)
I look forward the David Wells/Jack Morris comparisons in 2013.
   96. Don Malcolm Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#3724337)
Chris, how many holdouts would it take for Morris to crack 75% next year? (serious question, but ducking anyway...)
   97. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#3724338)
I'm a little concerned that Mac or Edgar or Palmeiro will fall off the ballot in 2014ish due to the structure of the ballot.

Let's say only Larkin gets in for 2012. In 2013 we get 7 strong candidates (Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton). Based on Bagwell/Mac/Palmeiro's/Brown's performances, there's no guarantee any of the roiders makes it given the steroid stink.

Let's say they elect Piazza and Biggio. There's still 5 big names left from this class, plus the current holdovers. Then in 2014, we get Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mussina, Kent. With five major holdovers from 2013, plus Bagwell and Smith, where is everyone going to go on a 10-man ballot?

Say Maddux, Glavine, Thomas make it in 2014. They are replaced plus one in 2015 by Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, and Sheffield!

Basically, there's just not enough room on a 10-man ballot to prevent Trammell, Mac, RAffy, Walker, maybe even Edgar, Smith, or Raines from sliding off of it.

Go to 15 or 20 names starting in 2013 and the problem pretty much goes away. Hell, they could just make it so they can list as many as they want and the process would work better with so many candidates.

[Edited last sentence for clarity.]
   98. Kurt Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#3724339)
I don't see it. He's not going to make it next year, and he's going to get buried by the 2013 ballot.

How so? Assuming Larkin gets in next year, Morris will be the top returning candidate, either him or Bagwell. The 2013 "deluge" consists of the following:

Bonds - steroids
Clemens - steroids
Piazza - steroids
Sosa - steroids
Schilling - comparable to Morris
Biggio

I'd happily bet a bbr sponsorship on Morris making it in by 2013.
   99. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#3724341)
The question everyone wants to know is - was Bert as gracious as Heyman demanded he be or was he a total dick?
   100. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:31 PM (#3724343)
George Kelly/Travis Jackson, 1925 NYG

According to that logic, Chris, we should add:

Gehrig/Lazzeri
Murray/Ripken
Kelly/Frisch
Bottomley/Hornsby
Perez/Morgan


No - B-Ref listed Kelly as the team's starting second baseman that year. (And Jackson, of course, was still their shortstop).

Yeah, it surprised me too, but there it is.
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