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Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Alomar, Blyleven Elected to Hall of Fame

Finally.

NEW YORK, N.Y.—Roberto Alomar, a 12-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winning second baseman, and Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winning pitcher who ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in balloting verified by Ernst & Young.

See below the fold for the full voting results.

90.0% Roberto Alomar (523)
79.7% Bert Blyleven (463)
—————————————-
62.1% Barry Larkin (361)
53.5% Jack Morris (311)
45.4% Lee Smith (263)
41.7% Jeff Bagwell (242)
37.5% Tim Raines (218)
32.9% Edgar Martinez (191)
24.3% Alan Trammell (141)
20.3% Larry Walker (118)
19.8% Mark McGwire (115)
17.9% Fred McGriff (104)
15.3% Dave Parker (89)
13.6% Don Mattingly (79)
12.6% Dale Murphy (73)
10.0% Rafael Palmeiro (64)
5.2% Juan Gonzalez (30)
—————————————-
4.8% Harold Baines (28)
4.6% John Franco (27)
2.1% Kevin Brown (12)
1.0% Tino Martinez (6)
0.7% Marquis Grissom (4)
0.7% Al Leiter (4)
0.7% John Olerud (4)
0.3% BJ Surhoff (2)
0.2% Bret Boone (1)
0.2% Benito Santiago (1)
0.0% Carlos Baerga (0)
0.0% Lenny Harris (0)
0.0% Bobby Higginson (0)
0.0% Charles Johnson (0)
0.0% Raul Mondesi (0)
0.0% Kirk Rueter (0)

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 05, 2011 at 09:04 PM | 245 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   101. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:34 PM (#3724345)
On Kevin Brown... he never really *felt* like a HOFer to me throughout his career. Of course, that might have to do with the fact that there were some very great pitchers around during Brown's best years (Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro). Of course, looking at his stats shows that he probably should be inducted, but maybe he was just overshadowed by the other greats pitching in the 90s and early aughts.

I hate to use a Morris-like argument, but there was a reason why he received that contract from the Dodgers. I remember thinking of him as a no-question ace who got teams to the playoffs, after he won the World Series with the Marlins in '97 and got the Padres there in '98. There was definitely a stretch where he was in the conversation with those other guys, but it didn't last long enough to overcome all the things Ryan listed in #9.
   102. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#3724346)
More HoF DP combinations:

Evers/Maranville, 1914-16 Braves. (Which means they've both been in multiple combinations)
B.Herman/Reese, 1941-42 Dodgers
Doerr/Cronin, 1938-41 Red Sox
Fox/Aparicio, 1956-62 White Sox
Lazzeri/Durocher, 1929 Yanks (again, that's stretching it)
Gordon/Rizzuto, 1946 Yanks
Alomar/Ripken, 1996 Orioles -

so I guess Gene Michael/Horace Clarke would be a long shot
   103. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#3724347)
I still have trouble believing how screwed Ted Simmons was on the first vote. He and Grich. Inexplicable.
   104. The George Sherrill Selection Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:36 PM (#3724348)
but on the player+manager front, when will joe torre get in?

As soon as he's eligible. The modern branch of the VC doesn't meet for three more years. Assuming he hasn't taken a job with another team, he'll go in then, and so will Bobby Cox.


Lou Piniella would be eligible too, right? Maybe he can throw a base during his induction ceremony.
   105. Greg Goosen at 30 Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:36 PM (#3724349)
I assume Michael Kay is a voter since he used his literary talents for the NY Post before using his vocal talents for the Yankees. Besides him, who were the other three guys who voted for Al Leiter? Not that I mind someone voting for a Leiter, Grissom, Surhoff and I feel bad for those like Johnson who got skunked. But I wonder who these few writers are. It doesn't do any real harm.
Davidoff of Newsday is one of 12 admitting he voted for Kevin Brown. He must never had to deal with him.
   106. AROM Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:40 PM (#3724352)
Let's say they elect Piazza and Biggio. There's still 5 big names left from this class, plus the current holdovers. Then in 2014, we get Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mussina, Kent. With five major holdovers from 2013, plus Bagwell and Smith, where is everyone going to go on a 10-man ballot?


Here's a situation that I've seen considered yet: Biggio gets in while Bagwell is still low on the ballot. They were teammates for every one of Bagwell's seasons. Biggios played before (when he was more promise than production) and after Bagwell (when he was a well below average player hanging on for a milestone). In the meantime, Bagwell was the obvious better player in about 10 of those 15 years.

This will be like declaring Robin one of the greatest superheros ever and calling Batman his sidekick.
   107. Tripon Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:44 PM (#3724354)
NEW YORK, N.Y.—Roberto Alomar, a 12-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove winning second baseman, and Bert Blyleven, a 287-game winning pitcher who ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list, were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in balloting verified by Ernst & Young.

The BBWAA uses the same guys that audited the Leaman Brothers books?
   108. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:02 AM (#3724366)
It'll be interesting to see who survives next year's ballot, to then face the deluge.

I'll assume that Larkin gets in, but nobody else.

Survivors would be Morris (2 years left of elligibility after next year), Lee Smith (5 years left after 2012), Bagwell (13 years left after 2012), Raines (10 years left after 2012), Edgar M. (12 years left after 2012), Trammell (4 years left after 2012), L. Walker (13 years after 2012), McGwire (9 years left after 2012), McGriff (12 years after 2012), Mattingly (3 years left after 2012), Murphy (1 year left after 2012), Palmeiro and J. Gonzalez (13 years each after 2012).

Next year's ballot is going to be pretty crowded, since (with the possible exception of Larkin), it doesn't look like anybody else is going in.

My fear would be that votes are going to be spread amongst a bunch of existing players (including Bernie Williams), so nobody's going to get much traction going forward.

Once the deluge starts, there will be hardly be any space left on the ballot AND getting any traction is going to be difficult, unless you are seen as a squeaky clean, not-particularly-buff candidate (Maddux, Glavine). And even then, what with the particulary idiosyncracies of certain writers (e.g., no anonymous choices), the next HoF elections are going to be buckshot like.

This is no way to run a system, and I suspect there will be pressure for the HoF to increase the number of voting slots (from 10 to 15 or 20), a change in the instructions on how to vote (yes, I know, this is unlikely) or perhaps even an effort to disenfranchise some BBWAA members who get cute and don't vote for anybody (or just one player per year).

P.S. Decaf Skim Milk Cappuccinos all around, particularly to 97.
   109. rudygamble Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#3724367)
Wonder if Raines will be helped/hurt/unaffected when Lofton comes up in 2013.

Their WAR graphs, career arcs (great first 7-8 years, solid after that), and career totals are very close.

If there ever was a graph that shows a double standard when it comes to AVG vs. OBP, here it is (Raines vs. Lofton vs. Gwynn)

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1406&playerid3=246&playerid4=1005166&playerid5;=
   110. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:14 AM (#3724372)
Here's a situation that I've seen considered yet: Biggio gets in while Bagwell is still low on the ballot. They were teammates for every one of Bagwell's seasons. Biggios played before (when he was more promise than production) and after Bagwell (when he was a well below average player hanging on for a milestone). In the meantime, Bagwell was the obvious better player in about 10 of those 15 years.


Assuming the "steroid vote" is relatively low on Bagwell, I could see him getting a decent boost when Biggio appears on the ballot, basically for this very reason: Biggio's an obvious HOFer (3,000 hits) and Bagwell was better when they were teammates. I could also see some voters who like the idea of 'the Killer B's' getting inducted together.
   111. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:15 AM (#3724375)
I'd happily bet a bbr sponsorship on Morris making it in by 2013.


I'll take it.
   112. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:18 AM (#3724379)
Davidoff of Newsday is one of 12 admitting he voted for Kevin Brown. He must never had to deal with him.


Actually, Davidoff said that Brown was every bit as unpleasant as his reputation, but his numbers warranted election.
   113. Solly Hemus Use Rogaine Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:19 AM (#3724380)
I don't see Morris and Schilling as comparable. Schilling's peak was much better.
   114. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:20 AM (#3724381)
Wonder if Raines will be helped/hurt/unaffected when Lofton comes up in 2013.


I'd guess unaffected because I suspect that Lofton will get lost in the crowd and be one-and-done. He's got a decent sabermetric case but it's a damn subtle one and relies on things like defense and baserunning at levels of precision that even most sabermetric-friendly fans aren't particularly comfortable. I think his prime as an Indian was also so long ago that most people remember the nomadic coda to his career where he made a half-season cameo with every team in the majors. His case is the kind that would take time to build to remind people of his prime and get them comfortable with the subtle positives he brings. That would take several years and I don't think he's going to get them.

He'll be one and done; the overwhelming majority of Raines voters and would-be voters won't ever get around to making the comparison.
   115. Kurt Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:21 AM (#3724383)
I'd happily bet a bbr sponsorship on Morris making it in by 2013.

I'll take it.


$20 sound okay?
   116. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:23 AM (#3724385)
Tinker/Evers
Rizzuto/Gordon
Reese/Robinson
Ripken/Alomar

Any I'm missing?


Aparicio/Fox

edit: Been gone for an hour and forgot to refresh
   117. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:24 AM (#3724386)
Chris, how many holdouts would it take for Morris to crack 75% next year? (serious question, but ducking anyway...)

He'd need to convince about 46%. I don't see it, given that he barely moved this year.

In 2010, Morris got 52.3% of the vote. This year, 53.5%. That means he won over 2.5% of the guys who didn't vote for him in 2010. Doesn't sound like someone whose about to convince half his detractors.
   118. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:25 AM (#3724387)
$20 sound okay?


Sure, assuming a) that still covers one in 2013, and b) neither of us is dead by then.
   119. Kurt Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3724389)
I don't see Morris and Schilling as comparable. Schilling's peak was much better.

I don't either; I was speaking from the perspective of a BBWAA voter:

Morris: 254-186, 3.90, 3 ringzz, iconic WS performance.
Schilling: 216-146, 3.46, 3 ringzz, iconic WS performance.

Close enough for BBWAA work.
   120. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:30 AM (#3724391)
I'm a little concerned that Mac or Edgar or Palmeiro will fall off the ballot in 2014ish due to the structure of the ballot.

There's no reason to worry with Edgar, minimal at most w/ Mac. Maybe Palmeiro, but even there I dunno.

Since the creation of the 5% rule, the highest vote total ever attained by someone who went on to fall off the ballot is 13.1%, achieved by Sparky Lyle in 1988. He fell off three years later.

Now, that record can be broken - and I actually expect it to be broken in the 2013-14 fandango, but Edgar? He's over 30%. That's way high of Lyle. Lyle lost most of his supporters, but Edgar has to retain less than one-seventh of the guys who voted for him last year.

McGwire? Well, he isn't as high, but his supporters are pretty solid. There's practically no movement on him at all either way. He'll lose some as people have to make room on their ballots for others, but will he really love over three-fourths his supporters? That's the difference between 20% and under 5%.

Palmeiro's closer to the limit, but people voting for him will vote for someone with a positive test.

The guys really likely to suffer? Dale Murphy could have the ultimate irony: falling under 5% in his 15th and final year on the ballot.

Fred McGriff is the guy in the most trouble. That's my hunch.
   121. Juan V Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:31 AM (#3724392)

I don't either; I was speaking from the perspective of a BBWAA voter:

Morris: 254-186, 3.90, 3 ringzz, iconic WS performance.
Schilling: 216-146, 3.46, 3 ringzz, iconic WS performance.

Close enough for BBWAA work.


Schilling should have Morris' voters plus some of the more sabermetrically inclined. I'll be surprised if Curt doesn't beat Jack.
   122. Norcan Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:34 AM (#3724394)
On ESPN's coverage of Alomar's and Blyleven's selections, they edited out Byleven's dig at the writers, his line of "for, I'm going to say, finally doing the right thing." They just left in his thanks to the writers. I suppose they felt the segment wasn't right for a tone of recrimination but still, at least capture the man right.

I think eventually Bonds and Clemens gets in because there were already hall of famers before they started juicing. It's going to take years of self-righteousness but eventually. I don't buy the argument though that Clemens has a claim to being the best pitcher ever so he should get in. While I'm biased against him, if he had steadily declined and not had a remarkable second wind after leaving Boston, no way does he wrack up more CY Youngs and gets to nearly 350 wins. He would have still been one of the best pitchers ever but not in the argument as greatest ever.

Schilling isn't Morris. He was better. I think he gets in before his fifth year. Mussina maybe take a couple of years longer.
   123. Kurt Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:34 AM (#3724395)
Schilling should have Morris' voters plus some of the more sabermetrically inclined.

Minus the first ballot purists.

I'll be surprised if Curt doesn't beat Jack.

Double or nothing?
   124. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:35 AM (#3724397)
Let's say they elect Piazza and Biggio. There's still 5 big names left from this class, plus the current holdovers. Then in 2014, we get Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Mussina, Kent. With five major holdovers from 2013, plus Bagwell and Smith, where is everyone going to go on a 10-man ballot?

Say Maddux, Glavine, Thomas make it in 2014. They are replaced plus one in 2015 by Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, and Sheffield!

Basically, there's just not enough room on a 10-man ballot to prevent Trammell, Mac, RAffy, Walker, maybe even Edgar, Smith, or Raines from sliding off of it.


We're also going to see a rise in names/ballot. It hasn't been over 7 in decades, but it could happen. The backlog is historically small right now, believe it or not. Picking a year at random, in 1982, 21 guys finished over 5% without getting in. Through the mid-1990s, there were normally around/over 20 such guys. Then it fell off.

Only 11 backloggers appeared on the 2010 ballot - the smallest ever. Next year there will be 14.
   125. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:38 AM (#3724398)
Dag, do you have an historical votes/ballot chart anywhere? I feel like you've printed one before either here or on THT.
   126. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:38 AM (#3724399)
It'll be interesting to see who survives next year's ballot, to then face the deluge.

All of 'em. Except Larkin, who will go in next year.
   127. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:38 AM (#3724400)
I tend to agree that I don't think Morris is going to be harmed by the 2013 deluge. It's almost all sluggers with steroid taints. He might see a big boost next year (into the 60s) and then he'll start to seem inevitable. Biggio is the closest think to a roid-free no-doubter on the 2013 ballot (assuming Larkin in next year ... which I'm not guaranteeing, I could see 72% or something) and isn't likely to steal votes from Morris. With Blyleven off the ballot, the anti-Morris crowd will be less vocal and some of the non-Morris/non-Blyleven voters will reason "well, I may not like it, but if Blyleven's good enough for the HoF, so is Morris."

Anyway, Morris will get buried in the 2014 deluge if not elected before then because that's when all the pitchers arrive. No way he has time to recover from that.

I don't think he'll make it but think about it Chris. A big boost next year is certainly possible -- 2nd highest holdover, best pitcher, no new competition. If Larkin in and Morris at 62% then Morris is the highest holdover, "best" "clean" pitcher (Schilling), lots of new competition but a sizeable chunk not going to be voted for.

I know that under a standard scenario, Morris would drop in 2013. But it kinda looks like roughly 50% of the people who would normally vote for Bonds, Piazza, Clemens, Sosa won't. In a normal 2013, we'd see Bonds and Clemens at 95% or higher and either Piazza or Biggio at 77% with the other and Sosa playing the role of Fisk. But it's looking more like we might see Biggio at 80%, Bonds, Clemans and Piazza at 50%, and Sosa at 20%. That's plenty of votes for Morris to poach.

If he's still on the ballot in 2014, we might see a record decline.

On the results:

Happy for Blyleven & Alomar, duh. Nice to see choking and spitting rewarded. :-)

Happy for Walker. I'm stunned he did better among non-Repoz than Repoz. (Repoz's totals this year did really well) I'm hoping for a big jump next year to maybe 30% which hopefully will be high enough to survive the glut.

Happy for Larkin, he's a shoo-in now. (He was pretty close to a shoo-in before but this seals it)

Good for Raines, nice progress. I wonder how Bernie's entrance will affect him.

Bagwell? Ahh, hell, I'm too confused. Clearly some of this is roid "certainty"; but a good chunk of it is people just not thinking he was that good. A number of voters didn't even bother discussing him in their columns. Carrie Muskat didn't even list him in her HoVG candidates -- which on reflection she might but at least means he wasn't anywhere near the front of her mind as the next candidate most worthy of strong consideration. It would also seem to be a good indication that our glorious sabermetric revolution hasn't made as much progress on our glorious 5-year plan as we'd thought.

Sorry for Edgar but I guess with Bagwell and Palmeiro coming on the ballot, he was expected to lose ground.

Trammell? Chris, how high does he have to get to have a good shot with the VC? I know, tough to answer since the VC is always changing ... and I'll burn several places down if the VC somehow inducts Trammell before Santo ... but best guess. That becomes the goal of any internet campaign for Trammell.

McGwire -- anybody notice that McGriff (-3.6) and Edgar (-3.3) saw the same decline as Mac (-3.9)? Is it possible his confession had no impact one way or the other and they were just all hurt by Bagwell's (and Walker's and Palmeiro's) entrance? Mattingly too (-2.2) who now ranks as the 7th-best corner player on the ballot?

Palmeiro -- better than I thought honestly ... and especially for a year where Mac declined.

Gonzalez -- huh. Thought for sure the blackballers would take him out. In retrospect, I guess this total makes sense. 1/4 of Mac voters also voted Gonzalez. Suggests maybe that, in terms of non-roid HoF standards, Mac voters are fairly similar to non-Mac voters. In a non-roid world, Mac sails in 1st ballot ... and if 25% of them would vote Gonzo, he gets 20-25%. That's Rice territory, perfectly believable for a guy with a couple MVPs and a bunch of RBIs. He may not have been as good as Murphy but no particular reason to think he'd have done worse than Murphy without the roid connection. Don't feel too bad for him, he was still a first ballot inductee to the financial idiots HoF for turning down that Detroit contract.

Franco vs. Brown -- the voters just love relievers all out of proportion. Franco was a very good reliever, arguably at least as good as Smith (so there's inconsistency there) but even by reliever standards he has nothing to hang his candidacy on. A career as a good reliever seems it will trump or at least hold even with a few great years as a starter. Hoffman's starting to look like a shoo-in to me.
   128. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:40 AM (#3724401)
Next year's ballot is going to be pretty crowded, since (with the possible exception of Larkin), it doesn't look like anybody else is going in.

Not really. Again, until 15 years ago or so, 20 names in the backlog was common. It'll be crowded with candidates most of us like, but that doesn't mean two squirts to the BBWAA.

2013 will set a record for fewest names/ballot, though.
   129. Matt Welch Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:41 AM (#3724402)
On Kevin Brown... he never really *felt* like a HOFer to me throughout his career. Of course, that might have to do with the fact that there were some very great pitchers around during Brown's best years (Maddux, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro). Of course, looking at his stats shows that he probably should be inducted, but maybe he was just overshadowed by the other greats pitching in the 90s and early aughts.


So you're saying he's the Bert Blyleven of the '90s/'00s?
   130. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:43 AM (#3724403)
Double or nothing?


That wasn't me. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack finish ahead of Curt during Schill's first year on the ballot (nor would I be surprised to see the opposite). But Curt will ultimately get elected by the BBWAA, which Jack won't.
   131. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:43 AM (#3724404)
This is no way to run a system, and I suspect there will be pressure for the HoF to increase the number of voting slots (from 10 to 15 or 20), a change in the instructions on how to vote (yes, I know, this is unlikely) or perhaps even an effort to disenfranchise some BBWAA members who get cute and don't vote for anybody (or just one player per year).

This could happen - the expansion, that is. I can't see them disenfranchsing voters. Expanding the ballot is better PR than cutting voters.

It depends what sort of pressure the HoF is under. More columns from ESPN writers like Caple or Stark bemoaning how crowded it is helps. As would similar things by Joe Poz.

The Hall historically reacts to loud cries of problems in their voting structure. That said, they haven't changed the BBWAA voting since the 1960s.
   132. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:44 AM (#3724405)
Wonder if Raines will be helped/hurt/unaffected when Lofton comes up in 2013.

Lofton won't get 5%. Raines will go down in 2013, but then again EVERYONE will that year.
   133. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:44 AM (#3724406)
I want to put together a nostalgic photo compilation of Charles Johnson, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Benito Santiago and Lenny Harris playing ball in their Marlins days. It'll be set to dramatic, uplifting music.

Highlights will include Al Leiter's no hitter, Johnson and Brown celebrating their World Series win, Santiago hitting the first Fish homerun and Lenny Harris getting a hit that one time.
   134. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:45 AM (#3724407)
What's the feeling on Bonds and Clemens? Get in eventually but only after sitting in ballot purgatory for ten years?
   135. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:48 AM (#3724411)
Say Maddux, Glavine, Thomas make it in 2014.


300 game winner comparables to Glavine (read: decent yet unspectacular peak) had to wait a few years (thinking of Niekro and Sutton). Thomas has the DH taint, and likely a whiff of the 'roid taint too (despite his public pronouncements), just via the guilt by association thing. Frankly the only guy I see as a mortal lock in 2013-14 is Maddux.

Olerud got jobbed too. McGriff and Palmiero have some magic counting stats, Olerud didn't, only significant difference between them, as peaks are about the same (Olerud arguably has the highest too).
   136. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:49 AM (#3724413)
Dag, do you have an historical votes/ballot chart anywhere? I feel like you've printed one before either here or on THT.

I did from 1988-onward here.

1987 was when they first went under 7/ballot.
   137. Kurt Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:50 AM (#3724415)
That wasn't me.

I know, I just like saying "double or nothing?"

I wouldn't be surprised to see Jack finish ahead of Curt during Schill's first year on the ballot (nor would I be surprised to see the opposite). But Curt will ultimately get elected by the BBWAA, which Jack won't.

I agree that Schilling has a better chance of being elected by the BBWAA in 2014 and beyond.
   138. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:52 AM (#3724416)
I tend to agree that I don't think Morris is going to be harmed by the 2013 deluge. It's almost all sluggers with steroid taints. He might see a big boost next year (into the 60s) and then he'll start to seem inevitable.

He already seems inevitable to me - but from the VC.

Everyone will be hurt by the deluge in 2013. Look what happened in 1999 (Ryan, Fisk, Brett, Yount), or 1989 (Yaz, Bench, Perry, and Jenkins). Enough highly qualified people show up, and everyone in the backlog falls back, even if they're not directly comparable.

I agree Morris won't be hurt as much. He'll barely fall back, but historical precedent makes it difficult for anyone to rise or even stand their ground.
   139. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:52 AM (#3724417)
I agree that Schilling has a better chance of being elected by the BBWAA in 2014 and beyond.


Damn, I definitely would have given you double or nothing on that. Maybe I can get Walt to bite.
   140. Don Malcolm Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:54 AM (#3724418)
No - B-Ref listed Kelly as the team's starting second baseman that year. (And Jackson, of course, was still their shortstop).

Yes indeed, sir, you are absolutely correct. And I used to know that, too...

'25 was a year of moving people around for McGraw (who suffered from a case of sinusitus just like George Sisler's through part of the year and had to turn the team over to Hughie Jennings for awhile). Frisch played a lot of short and third that year, and proved to be a bit too error-prone to hold down either of those positions on a full-time basis. Looking at the numbers, though, Kelly (despite being 6'4") actually could play second base and would have a much better HoF case had he played there his entire career. Who woulda thunk??
   141. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:56 AM (#3724420)
Biggio is the closest think to a roid-free no-doubter on the 2013 ballot

I'm not even sure Biggio goes in 2013. I think back to Yount: just 77% in 1999 (when he was stuck alongside Ryan, Fisk, and Brett). That's the lowest start by a 3,000 hit guy since Brock (and it may be lower than Broc). Well, lowest by a 3,000 hit guy until today anyway.

The mess of a ballot in 2013 could keep Biggio off. Ordinarily I'd expect him to get 85% (which is what Winfield, Molitor, and Murray all got -- all long-career compilers, which is what the BBWAA will probably think of Biggio). But those 85%ers all did it in normal ballots. Biggio loses a little, and he waits until next year - which means he may have to wait anothr year or to with Maddux, Glavine and all that.

That said, Biggio could still go in, just that even he won't be an automatic.
   142. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2011 at 12:59 AM (#3724425)
b) neither of us is dead by then

Thanks for giving the rest of us a rooting interest in this bet. :-)

Schilling should have Morris' voters plus some of the more sabermetrically inclined. I'll be surprised if Curt doesn't beat Jack.

I don't consider that very likely. Remember, Morris debuted around 20-25%. Most current Morris voters are converts (for whatever reasons). Schilling should debut fairly low, drop some in 2014, then start building.

How the voters sort through Mussina, Schilling and Smoltz is going to be "interesting". At least they simplified their task by tossing Brown on the trash heap.
   143. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#3724426)
300 game winner comparables to Glavine (read: decent yet unspectacular peak) had to wait a few years (thinking of Niekro and Sutton).


Tom Glavine won 2 Cy Young awards, a World Series MVP, finished top-3 in Cy voting 4 times(*), and was a 10-time All-Star. Glavine also won 20 games 5 times, leading the NL in all 5 of those seasons.

Phil Niekro only had 2 top-3 Cy finishes and 5 All-Star games. He only won 20 games 3 times and lost 20 twice (once at the same time: he was 21-20 in 1979). Sutton had 1 top-3 Cy finish, 4 All-Star games, and 1 20-win season.

Glavine has a much stronger BBWAA case than Niekro or Sutton.

(*) I'm citing top-3 not to make Glavine look good (although it does), but because there were 3 names on the Cy Young ballot when these guys were pitching.
   144. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#3724427)
I don't think he'll make it but think about it Chris. A big boost next year is certainly possible -- 2nd highest holdover, best pitcher, no new competition.

This is all true and good points. Morris WILL rise up next year and it'll be a bigger rise than this year - but I'm stunned how small his bounce was this year.

Then again - I could look at Blyleven:

2007 47.7%
2008 61.9%
2009 62.7%
2010 74.2%

This could be Morris's 2009 - except he never had a rise like Blyleven's 2007-08. In fact, Morris has had a slow upward move. He broke 40% in 2006 and didn't break 50% until 2010. Now he's at 53%. He's still closer to his 2005 vote total than 75%.

'roids make everything messier, though.
   145. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:03 AM (#3724428)
Paul Molitor played second base for two seasons including making the All Star team in 1979.

So Yount/Molitor I believe qualifies.
   146. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:06 AM (#3724429)
Trammell? Chris, how high does he have to get to have a good shot with the VC? I know, tough to answer since the VC is always changing ... and I'll burn several places down if the VC somehow inducts Trammell before Santo ... but best guess. That becomes the goal of any internet campaign for Trammell.

That's really tough to say. Go back farther in time and you had a completely different VC that put in everyone. Look at more recent times and you have a VC that didn't elect anyone. Making it more confusing, I never did sort by peak for people.

Just scrolling, it looks like getting in the high-mid 30s helps.

Really - Trammell is in a gray area. Simple as that. He'll be on the VC ballot, shoving out guys like Al Oliver. From there, it's all VC Potluck. I wish I could say something more positive - but at least they blew up the Joe Morgan SuperFriends Committee.
   147. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:07 AM (#3724430)
The mess of a ballot in 2013 could keep Biggio off.


I don't see it. I think the steroid issue helps his number, not hurts it. Who's going to leave Biggio off of their ballot? If guys are protesting and not voting for Bonds, Clemens, et al., that just leaves more room on their ballots for clean little Craig. Guys who are willing to include Bonds and Clemens are still going to find room on their ballots for Biggio. Sabermetric-inclined guys will love him - Bill James thought he was the best player in the major-leagues in the late '90s. As you said, guys will be carrying maybe 4-5 holdovers per ballot at most going into 2013. That's plenty of room for Biggio to fit on everybody's ballot (or at least on the 85-90% of them who would be inclined to vote for a clean 3,000-hit guy with a strong sabermetric case as well).
   148. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:08 AM (#3724431)
What's the feeling on Bonds and Clemens? Get in eventually but only after sitting in ballot purgatory for ten years?

The only honest answer: no one knows.

I can't imagine any scenario in which they do worse than McGwire, though. Beyond that, it's an ink blot test - the answer tells you more about the person answering than about the question they're asked.
   149. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:11 AM (#3724432)
Say Maddux, Glavine, Thomas make it in 2014.

300 game winner comparables to Glavine (read: decent yet unspectacular peak) had to wait a few years (thinking of Niekro and Sutton). Thomas has the DH taint, and likely a whiff of the 'roid taint too (despite his public pronouncements), just via the guilt by association thing. Frankly the only guy I see as a mortal lock in 2013-14 is Maddux.

The best comp for Glavine isn't Niekro or Sutton, but Gaylord Perry: many 20-win seasons, multiple Cy Young Awards and enters the ballot in a fiercely competitive year.

Glavine could go in right away. Or he might have to wait a year or two like Perry. I could see it either way. Ditto Thomas, but I think Thomas's anti-'roids crusading will help. I agree Maddux is the only mortal lock in 2014.
   150. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:14 AM (#3724434)
Forgot to respond to this

If [Morris]'s still on the ballot in 2014, we might see a record decline.

Current record holder: Luis Tiant. Man that 1988-89 transfer (Yaz, Bench, Perry, Jenkins, Kaat) was a #####.

Tiant is the worst case scenario for Bagwell or Edgar or anyone else. Tiant had a great start 30.9%. The next year was 1989 - barely over 10%. And that was the first of 11 consecutive ballots with at least one 300-game winner on it. Tiant didn't even top 15% in all that time.

Tiant finally survived the 300-rs, but by then he was running out and it was all he could do to get to 20% before running out of time.

Jeff Bagwell could be this generation's Luis Tiant. It's possible.
   151. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:14 AM (#3724435)
I could also see some voters who like the idea of 'the Killer B's' getting inducted together.


This is one of the dumbest and most correct things said on this thread. I weep for our people.
   152. pinball1973 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:19 AM (#3724438)
To say it again, I only pay attention to the HoF when it does something right.

This year, two rights and no wrongs, and Larkin and Raines look set to move up, while Morris' gain looks like the Littel Engine that Won't.

Congrats, especially to Bert (Alomar was always a shoe-in).
   153. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:20 AM (#3724439)
I don't consider that very likely. Remember, Morris debuted around 20-25%. Most current Morris voters are converts (for whatever reasons). Schilling should debut fairly low, drop some in 2014, then start building.

Sounds reasonable.

One difference: when Morris debut in 2000, it was right after 11 consecutive ballots with at least one 300-game winner on it.

In 2000, aside from Morris voters had to pick from Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Luis Tiant, and Ron Guidry. The first three had career numbers that blew Morris out of the water and the other two had some really big seasons on their part (and Tiant's had almost as many wins as Morris).

At any rate, there were six starting pitchers.

Right now, Morris is it. Schilling may very end up lower in 2013 because that ballot could be such a mess, but at least there are few guys really comparable.
   154. rudygamble Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:20 AM (#3724443)
I'd guess unaffected because I suspect that Lofton will get lost in the crowd and be one-and-done.


Lofton won't get 5%. Raines will go down in 2013, but then again EVERYONE will that year.


I'm not sold on Lofton as a HOFer but that would be the most brutal one-and-done OF since, I don't know, Jimmy Wynn?

Interesting to compare Lofton and Raines to Ichiro (whom I think will make the HOF) and Damon (whom might get in if he can stick around for 3 years to make 3,000 hits). Granted, Ichiro didn't debut until 27 but Lofton's first full year was 25.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1406&playerid3=246&playerid4=1101&playerid5=185
   155. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3724445)
FUN FACT:

Bert Blyleven is the first MLB starting pitcher entering Cooperstown in 12 years.

Quite a drought. They've put in relievers, a hybrid (Eck), and Negro Leaguers, but Blyleven's the first MLB starting pitcher to go in since Nolan Ryan.
   156. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:24 AM (#3724446)
I'm not sold on Lofton as a HOFer but that would be the most brutal one-and-done OF since, I don't know, Jimmy Wynn?

Jimmy Wynn got the ultimate shutout: no votes.
   157. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:27 AM (#3724448)
What's the feeling on Bonds and Clemens? Get in eventually but only after sitting in ballot purgatory for ten years?


It seems easier to pick apart McGwire and Palmeiro than it would be those two, who were pretty certain HOFers before any steroid allegations. I'm not saying that it's fair - or that I agree at all - but McGwire has a fairly short career, low BA, and I can see a writer arguing that were it not for steroid-inflated HR totals, he wouldn't have been a HOFer. Palmeiro had a slow start to his career before putting up the big career numbers, was never considered the best of his era, and I can see a writer arguing that if not for steroid-inflated late career numbers, his counting stats wouldn't have been hall-worthy.

Bonds and Clemens, on the other hand, are pretty much first-ballot HOFers before any steroid allegations. That said, I am sure the writers will punish both and say "well, then they aren't going to be first ballot HOFers then." Alomar got the same treatment for the spitting and whatever else, but only had to wait one year; I suspect Bonds and Clemens will have to wait a bit longer. Ten years? I don't think it will be that long. I think we are going to see a fair number of "they cheated, so they don't get my vote," but also a bunch of begrudging "I think they are guilty, but that doesn't mean they weren't HOFers anyway."
   158. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:42 AM (#3724450)
Look what happened in 1999 (Ryan, Fisk, Brett, Yount), or 1989 (Yaz, Bench, Perry, and Jenkins). Enough highly qualified people show up, and everyone in the backlog falls back, even if they're not directly comparable.

Except with the HUGE difference that we (presumably) won't have 85-99% of the voters ticking off the names of Bonds and Clemens nor 60-75% ticking off the names Biggio, Piazza and Sosa. To that apparently quite substantial chunk of voters to whom McGwire is not an HoFer, those people entering the ballot (with the possible exception of Biggio) won't shift their evaluation of Morris one bit.

Palmeiro, Bagwell, Walker, Brown is a pretty strong entering class. Not up there with Ryan, Brett, etc. but pretty strong. As you note, Palmeiro would normally have gotten about 85% of the vote. Instead he got 11%. It's not clear that his presence on the ballot hurt anybody and, if it hurt anybody at all, it only hurt the other corner sluggers. Sosa's likely to be an afterthought in 2013, I'm not expecting him to do better than Mac.

I simply don't think you can treat 2013 as being similar to Ryan, Brett, etc. Given the voting patterns of the last couple of years, I'm not sure the real impact of the 2013 entrants is any different than what would have been expected in 2011 if not for roids. You've got Biggio (maybe an 85%er) and a bunch of good, not great candidates who are going to debut somewhere between 20 and 50%. The "problem" is there will already be a ton of guys in the 20-50% range but if, after a 2012 boost, Morris is sitting at 60+, then I'm not sure I see why he'd be affected.

In 2014 you've got candidates who I think will get in easily, including at least one pitcher and a second pitcher who should debut at least in the 50-70 range a la Perry and Jenkins (Glavine has 2 CYAs, 10 ASGs and a 600 winning %, he ain't Don Sutton, I think he gets in 1st ballot unless a lot of voters feel that Maddux should go in first). Morris and everyone else will get creamed in 2014. And the pitching onslaught doesn't let up for another couple of years so it's impossible to see Morris making progress.

I could be wrong but I think Blyleven's election this year will have a similar 1-year effect as the election of Eck did for Sutter and Gossage. It's consensus building but some of that consensus was "Blyleven deserves it more than Morris." Some of that consensus now shifts to "first Blyleven, now Morris." I suspect we'll see a few articles along these lines in the next couple of days and a lot next year. Sutton made it clear you could be a good not great career compiler and get in with 300 wins; in the eyes of many voters, Blyleven just made it clear you could be a good not great career compiler and get in with fewer than 300 wins. Well, Morris qualifies.

Finally, there's "strategy" and "the way humans work". On the first, do you think Morris's supporters don't know that the 2013-14 glut isn't coming? They'll do everything they can to win new voters in 2012. On the second -- well, maybe just a repeat of the prvious paragraph. There is going to be this sort of sub-conscious "OK, you let us have Blyleven, we'll give you Morris" thing going on. A little peace offering amidst the endless squabbling we're going to have among voters for the next several years. When Stark et al ask the HoF for more guidance I suspect what they're really asking for is help mending the fences within their own profession.

What does your model say for Morris next year?

And, no, sorry ... I'm not predicting Morris goes in for 2013. I'm just saying I can see it. Get back to me after next year's election and if Morris is sitting 60+, I might be willing to bet on his induction via the BBWAA.
   159. AROM Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:43 AM (#3724451)
"I'm not sold on Lofton as a HOFer but that would be the most brutal one-and-done OF since, I don't know, Jimmy Wynn?"

Lou Whitaker
   160. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3724452)
What does your model say for Morris next year?

I'd tentatively say 65%. That's a WAG right now. Then again, they're all just guesses.
   161. Don Malcolm Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:47 AM (#3724454)
Chris, did you ever examine the weird sequence in Rice's voting percentages in the late 90s (43% in '98, 29% in '99, then up to 52% in '00)? What was going on there? Three-first ballot HOFers in '99 (Brett, Yount, Ryan)--does that account for it? Fisk was also a strong 4th that year. All of the holdovers took a downturn that year, but nothing like Rice's. It should have finished his candidacy...so what happened in '00 to revive it? Is that where we can pinpoint the beginning of "TEH FEAR"??

Vote percentage movement for players who got 40-50% of the vote in their FYOB:

Waner 42-38 in, 5th
Smith 42-37 (out, 9 YOB)
Wilhelm 42-38 in, 8th
Garvey 42-37 (out, fell off ballot)
Carter 42-34 in, 6th
Greenberg 44-38 in, 8th*
Dawson 45-50 in, 8th
A. Simmons 48-50 in, 7th
Cy Young(!) 49-76 in, 2nd
Sandberg 49-61 in, 3rd
Perez 50-55 in, 9th
----------------
Jenkins 52-67 in, 3rd
Hunter 54-68 in, 3rd

*different vote process, no 5-yr waiting period

So Bagwell is in a group where almost everyone gets in via the front door (9 out of 10, with Smith on the fence but likely to go the way of Garvey). I still think that the lull next year might boost him up enough to take advantage of Biggio's coattails. But he'll need to get to about where Larkin is to do that.
   162. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:49 AM (#3724456)
Morris and everyone else will get creamed in 2014. And the pitching onslaught doesn't let up for another couple of years so it's impossible to see Morris making progress.


Morris only has three years left. If he doesn't go in by 2014, it's over for him until he gets elected by the VC.
   163. AndrewJ Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:54 AM (#3724457)
Paul Molitor played second base for two seasons including making the All Star team in 1979.

So Yount/Molitor I believe qualifies.


Indeed.

I'm assuming Evers and Tinker were together longer than any other HOF double-play combination. Until Whitaker and Trammell get in, of course.
   164. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:55 AM (#3724458)
Oh - and a round of applause to Repoz & his assistants, who tallied nearly one-fourth the ballot.

If anyone cares, here's the difference in votes between the writers Repoz tallied and those he didn't. (Neither % below is the full total, just the two compoennts - 138 tallied, and 443 others). Tally first, then non-tally:

Alomar 93.4%, 88.9%
Blyleven 79.7%, 79.7%
Larkin 66.6%, 60.7%
Morris 49.2%, 54.9%
L.Smith 39.1%, 47.2%
Bagwell 40.6%, 42.0%
Raines 47.1%, 34.5%
E.Martinez 31.9%, 33.2%
Trammell 26.8%, 23.5
Walker 13.8%, 22.3%
McGwire 19.6%, 19.9%
McGriff 16.6%, 18.3%
Parker 5.1%, 18.5%
Mattingly 5.8%, 16.0%
Murphy 8.7%, 13.8%
Palmeiro 12.3%, 10.6%
Baines 4.3%, 4.966%
Brown 2.9%, 1.8%

I didn't bother figuring non-Repoz percentages for the others.

Smith and Mattingly can't fall off the ballot soon enough for Repoz
   165. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 01:59 AM (#3724459)
Chris, did you ever examine the weird sequence in Rice's voting percentages in the late 90s (43% in '98, 29% in '99, then up to 52% in '00)?

The easy one is 1999. Everyone collapsed that year. Brett, Yount, Fisk and Ryan showed up.

The incredible thing is 2000. I mentioned last page (I think) that Aparicio has two of the three biggest one year rises in the last half-century. The other is Jim Rice, 1999-2000. Coming off a big down year helps, but as for the rest . . .. well, I've heard the Boston Red Sox started making a concentrated case for him, and giving out info on all his big RBIs in cherry-picked years and all. Maury Brown once posted a list of all BBWAA members and their home region and Boston was unusually heavily represnted.

Basically, he was on the rise before 1999, took a big step backwards that year (probably one of the bigger steps backwards - his value was entirely in his bat and that's three hitters showing up on the ballot) but once they were gone he picked up where he left off. THat's the weird thing: no lingering traces of 1999 once it was over. Usually it takes a while to shake off or something.
   166. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: January 06, 2011 at 02:01 AM (#3724461)
Jack Morris will be far and away the best pitcher on the ballot next year


He's certainly the best candidate, but you know what's funny:

b-ref WAR:

Jack Morris 39.3
Brad Radke 41.4

Think that might get brought up a few times next fall in the lead-up to the voting?
   167.     Hey Gurl Posted: January 06, 2011 at 02:11 AM (#3724465)

Smith and Mattingly can't fall off the ballot soon enough for Repoz


Raines was actually a bigger whiff. Oi.
   168. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 02:24 AM (#3724470)
Here are the big problems for the Jack campaign.

1) He'll never be the story entering an election. Next year the focus will be on Larkin. The 2013 focus will be on the incoming class. Morris may be the top returning vote-getter next year, but the attention will be on the newcomers.

2) He may not ever be the top-returning vote getter. Larkin is not a lock for 2012, and Bagwell could very well pull past him next year.

3) Being the top pitcher on the ballot is nice, but it's hard to see where it really moves the voters. Blyleven became the top pitcher on the ballot during his sixth year of eligibility. That didn't exactly grease the induction skids.

4) He has to make up more ground in his final three years then he has in the last six. It took Bert five years after finally reaching 50 percent to get in. It took Rice nine years after finally reaching 50 percent. Jack just reached it last year, and only has three years left.

5) Jack only has two years left. If he's not in by 2014, then Maddux and Glavine (plus a returning Schilling) leave him little hope.

6) Only moving up slightly this year doesn't suggest the momentum of a runaway freight train.

7) Finally, while it's not a dealbreaker as the Rice election shows, he's not worthy of being in the Hall of Fame. That's going to cut into the number of guys he's able to convert.
   169. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 02:41 AM (#3724477)
I just was trying (not successfully) to make 2 points about Glavine: in a normal year, his 300 wins/2 Cy's/20 win seasons would make him a mortal lock-in a normal year. 2014 will be decidedly abnormal. For those who aren't going to indulge in steroid protest non-votes, he's going to be like 5th-8th on the depth chart, and could get lost in the shuffle on enough ballots to not make it. And the Cy's and 20 win seasons aside, everybody knows who the contemporary starting pitchers are who had the otherworldly peaks*, and he wasn't one of them; one is going to be on the first ballot with him, two will be carrying over from 2013, and the other two show up the next year (and please don't tell me that Unit has been hearing some whispers of a nameless fear wafting in his direction too). He may take several ballots to get in; I'd peg his 2014 chances at no worse than 50:50 (which is much better than a lot of guys will get), but if he doesn't, those odds will drop a ton in 2015 when Unit and Pedro come aboard. The go-in-with-teammate-Maddux thing might be enough to get him elected in the first year however.

*This was the main parallel with Perry, Niekro and Sutton that I was trying to make.
   170. AndrewJ Posted: January 06, 2011 at 02:51 AM (#3724485)
Nobody seems to have brought up an obvious parallel to Alomar's waiting a year due to the Hirschbeck incident: Juan Marichal waiting till his third year on the ballot (1983), largely due to the Roseboro bat assault. Marichal got 58.1% in his first year, then went up to 73.5% the next election (just seven votes shy) and 83.7% in '83. No Roseboro episode, he gets in at least a year earlier, no?
   171. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:01 AM (#3724488)
First Hall of Famer with AIDS?
   172. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:10 AM (#3724491)
2) He may not ever be the top-returning vote getter. Larkin is not a lock for 2012, and Bagwell could very well pull past him next year.

My opinion: Larkin goes in next year. I'd put the odds at 90%. I'd put the odds on Bagwell passing him up at 0.01%.

Larkin's best comp is Sandberg. Both are middle infielders. Both considered the best in the league at their position for a decade. Both long associated with one NL team.

In their first year on the ballot, Larkin got 51.6% and Sandberg got 49.2%

In their second year on the ballot, Larkin got 62.1% and Sandberg got 61.1%.

Pretty impressive in its similarity, isn't it?

In his third year, Sandberg got 76.1%.

Added bonus: Sandberg had a harder ballot in year #3 than Larkin will have. Sandberg went in the year Boggs showed up on the ballot. No one else of note showed up (Willie McGee got 5%, and came back one more time, but that was it). In 2012? It's Bernie Williams and bust.

The backloggers who return to the ballot in 2012 appeared on 3.98 ballots this year. And with just Bernie showing up, that means 2012 will set a record for fewest names per ballot. (Current record is around 5.3).

Upshot: the sparse ballot will help everyone move up. The guys on top of a ballot generally have the biggest increase. In Sandberg's final year on the ballot, it was a much more competitve ballot. He still made it in.

It should help Larkin that Alomar goes in. They were both middle infielders who appeared at the same time, perennial all-stars, not sluggers, not batting average kings - they likely took some votes away from each other. Alomar's entry paves the way. But Larkin won't need it. He's going in regardless of that detail, but this just makes it more convincing.
   173. AndrewJ Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:11 AM (#3724492)
I remember my first visit to the Hall of Fame when I was nine.

Roberto Alomar was born the same year I was.

I now feel incredibly old.
   174. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:11 AM (#3724493)
For those who aren't going to indulge in steroid protest non-votes, he's going to be like 5th-8th on the depth chart, and could get lost in the shuffle on enough ballots to not make it.


How do you get Glavine 8th on his ballot? He's obviously behind Maddux and for guys who ignore steroids he's obviously behind Bonds and Clemens. And who else? Maybe you can drop him down to 8th if you're a strict sabermetric voter (I actually don't know; I thought Glavine's case stood up pretty well to a sabermetric evaluation), but my sense is that strict sabermetric voters aren't going to be the kind to artificially limit the size of their ballots, which is the only way you don't vote for Glavine at #8.

As with Biggio, I'm having trouble seeing who isn't going to vote for Tom Glavine: he's obviously well-qualified by both traditional and sabermetric measures and nobody's going to suspect him of steroid use.

Tony Gwynn got 97.6% of the HOF vote his first and only year on the ballot. That was despite sharing a debut ballot with Cal Ripken and Mark McGwire. Hit a magic number (3,000 hits for Gwynn and Biggio, 300 wins for Glavine), lead the league in something nice a few times (batting average for Gwynn, wins for Glavine) and you're golden with the BBWAA.
   175. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:16 AM (#3724496)
Bagwell/Biggio in 2013
   176. bigboy1234 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:17 AM (#3724497)
Looking at purely Wins Above All-Star level (5 WAR), here are the position leaders since 1960 (left off Mantle, Mathews, Snider because more of their career came in the 50's)

01 71.2 Barry Bonds
02 60.6 Willie Mays*
03 44.9 Hank Aaron*
....44.2 pre-2001 Bonds
04 35.2 Mike Schmidt*
05 33.8 Albert Pujols
06 32.1 Alex Rodriguez
07 28.1 Joe Morgan*
08 28.0 Rickey Henderson*
09 22.5 Wade Boggs*
10 19.3 Frank Robinson*
11 19.2 Cal Ripken*
12 18.8 Ken Griffey Jr.
13 18.4 Ernie Banks*
14 18.1 George Brett*
15 17.6 Carl Yastrzemski*
16 16.5 Ron Santo
17 16.0 Jeff Bagwell
18 15.7 Roberto Clemente*
19 14.8 Rod Carew*
20 14.0 Al Kaline*
21 13.9 Dick Allen
22 13.7 Jim Edmonds
23 13.3 Robin Yount*
24 13.0 Reggie Jackson*
25 12.6 Frank Thomas
26 12.4 Jim Wynn
27 12.3 Jason Giambi
28 12.1 Chipper Jones
29 11.9 Andruw Jones
30 11.7 Todd Helton
31 11.1 Willie McCovey*
32 10.8 Johnny Bench*
33 10.5 Sal Bando
34 10.4 Nomar Garciaparra
35 10.4 Gary Carter*
36 10.3 Ryne Sandberg*
37 10.2 Sammy Sosa
38 10.1 Mike Piazza
39 9.9 Pete Rose
40 9.7 Derek Jeter
41 9.4 Alan Trammell
42 9.2 Joe Mauer
43 8.9 Carlos Beltran
44 8.9 Bobby Grich
45 8.7 Dale Murphy
46 8.5 Edgar Martinez
47 8.5 Brooks Robinson*
48 8.4 Roberto Alomar*
49 8.2 Ichiro Suzuki
50 8.1 Larry Walker
51 8.1 Craig Biggio
52 8.0 Jim Thome

Then there are guys like Brock, Maz, Aparicio who have a combined total of 0.9 in this measurement while Jimmy Wynn got a one and done.
   177. Lassus Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:22 AM (#3724500)
b-ref WAR:

Jack Morris 39.3
Brad Radke 41.4

Think that might get brought up a few times next fall in the lead-up to the voting?

I really believe that every time this gets brought up to a mainstream BBWAA guy over the next year, it will HELP Morris, not hurt. This CAN'T be right to them, proving their point that you had to be there. They'll think of it as a righteous stick in the eye to all of us in our basements with our NUMBERS and MATH and COMPUTERS and STATISTICS and MATH telling them what's really important to baseball history.
   178. Kurt Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:23 AM (#3724501)
1) He'll never be the story entering an election. Next year the focus will be on Larkin. The 2013 focus will be on the incoming class. Morris may be the top returning vote-getter next year, but the attention will be on the newcomers.

Why wouldn't he be the story entering next election? How many Morris threads have we had in the last few weeks, and how many Larkin threads? How much attention will really be on Vinny Castilla, Scott Erickson, Ruben Sierra etc.? Tune in next year as we answer these exciting questions!
   179. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:24 AM (#3724503)
2) He may not ever be the top-returning vote getter. Larkin is not a lock for 2012, and Bagwell could very well pull past him next year.

My opinion: Larkin goes in next year. I'd put the odds at 90%. I'd put the odds on Bagwell passing him up at 0.01%.


I think he was speculating that Bagwell would pass Morris in votes next season, not Larkin.
   180. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:36 AM (#3724507)
Lassus, I agree completely. But you have to admit it's amusing.

(BTW, mourning Caprica's demise at all?)
   181. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:37 AM (#3724508)
I think he was speculating that Bagwell would pass Morris in votes next season, not Larkin.

Oh. More likely, but it'll start be hard to leapfrog people on a year when a weak ballot rises all boats.

Bagwell should pass Smith at least. Raines might even pass Smith. (Depends; Smith is the most stuck candidate that high up, so he might receive the smallest bump next year, but he should still rise somewhat).

At any rate, if Bagwell is the #2 backlogger heading into the Abyss of 2013, it should be easier to avoid the Fate of Tiant mentioned in #151.
   182. Srul Itza Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:41 AM (#3724510)
Or he might have to wait a year or two like Perry.


A la the Hirschbeck deduction for Alomar, and the Roseboro deduction for Marichal, could this have been a Vaseline deduction for Gay Lord?
   183. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:43 AM (#3724513)
Why wouldn't he be the story entering next election?


Do you mean the one coming up? Because he's not expected to get elected next year?

As for why he won't in 2013? Because the story will be the arrival of Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Biggio, Schilling, etc.
   184. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:46 AM (#3724516)
could this have been a Vaseline deduction for Gay Lord?


I've always assumed this, and thought I'd even seen writers admitting as much at the time. But that's hard to confirm 20 years after the fact. (I just tried a Google search on 'Gaylord Perry', 'Hall of Fame', and spit, and the first hit was to an Urban Dictionary definition of a "gaylord perry" - it's, um, pretty much exactly what you think it might be (definitely NSFW))
   185. Kurt Posted: January 06, 2011 at 03:52 AM (#3724519)
If it were quantifiable, I would bet 100 sponsorships on Morris being "the story" entering the 2012 election. Alomar wan't any kind of a "story" this year, he just got elected, and I don't see why Larkin would be any different. With Blyleven out of the way, Morris is the story, if cranky old sportswriters have anything to say about it.
   186. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: January 06, 2011 at 04:01 AM (#3724523)
When it comes to 2012, what's the over/under on votes for Joe Randa?

I think setting it at 1 might be just, since I think the one writer giving Joe a sympathy vote will cause all bets to lose. But I haven't become addicted to Sports gambling yet.

Granted, Surhoff looks a lot better than Randa for the various HOF formulas.
And Randa's most similar was Jeff Cirillo.

But you had to be there.

If Tim Raines were to have retired after 1990 or 1995, would he have made the Hall?
   187. Dag is a salt water fish in fresh water world Posted: January 06, 2011 at 04:07 AM (#3724525)
could this have been a Vaseline deduction for Gay Lord?

I'm sure that played a role. When you fall a little short, there's always more than one cause.

But that was a stretch of some loaded newbies (with total votes per ballot for all newbies given at the end in parathesis):

1989: Yaz, Bench, Perry, Jenkins, Kaat (3.35)

1990: Palmer, Morgan (1.79)

1991: Carew, Fingers (1.72)

1992: Seaver, Perez, (1.76)

1993: Jackson, Niekro, Garvey (2.09)

1994: Carlton, Sutton, Sutter (2.06)

1995: Schmidt, Rice, John (1.54)

Not nearly as concentrated as what'll happen in 2013-14, but it's damn impressive to have seven straight elections with multiple BBWAA picks debuting each year.

There wasn't much chance for backloggers to move up. Sure enough, none did in that span.

Long as I'm looking at it, here are debut years for guys who the BBWAA either voted in or kept on the ballot for the full 15 years (or are still on the ballot for those who haven't had a chance to last 15):

1996: none

1997: none

1998: Carter, Blyleven

1999: Ryan, Brett, Yount, Fisk, Murphy

2000: Gossage, Morris

2001: Winfield, Puckett, Mattingly

2002: O. Smith, Dawson, Trammell

2003: Murray, Sandberg, L. Smith

2004: Molitor, Eckersley

2005: Boggs

2006: none

2007: Ripken, Gwynn, McGwire

2008: Raines

2009: Rickey

2010: Alomar, Larkin, E. Martinez, McGriff

2011: Bagwell, L. Walker, Palmeiro, J. Gonzalzez

You know what really helped Blyleven? That 2005-09 stretch when an unusually small number of candidates showed up. That made it easier for backloggers to rise. Sure enough, Sutter, Rice, Dawson, and Gossage also rose up in those years.
   188. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: January 06, 2011 at 04:29 AM (#3724536)
You know what really helped Blyleven? That 2005-09 stretch when an unusually small number of candidates showed up. That made it easier for backloggers to rise. Sure enough, Sutter, Rice, Dawson, and Gossage also rose up in those years.


Or phrased differently - if you are Mussina, Kent, Smoltz and Sheffield, you would have been advised to have played an extra year or two so as to avoid being dragged by the undertow of the more talented players in the ballot prior to or alongside you.
   189. John DiFool2 Posted: January 06, 2011 at 04:37 AM (#3724541)
How do you get Glavine 8th on his ballot?


If I must reiterate my broader point, I said (implying a rough estimate) "5th-8th". Note Glavine has 67 WAR, not a huge number for a 300 game winner (he does have 176 on the HoF Monitor, which may be more pertinent). 2013 is probably the deepest ballot we will see to date. Absent any sort of steroid adjustment, I personally have him behind

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Bagwell
Hurt

About even with

Biggio
Piazza

Ahead of

Lofton
EMart
Sosa
Schilling (strictly on the strength of the wins gap, mind)
Lofton
Mac
Walker

Of course the writers, in this alternate universe, yes probably would have him at 4th or 5th at worst (definitely ahead of Bags, Thomas maybe-depends on how they view his DH time), and not my 5th-8th. Overall point is that it would be a deep ballot, is a deep ballot anyway, and he'll have lots of competition, which likely will cut into his vote total somewhat, enough perhaps to keep him away from 75%. Add the "none shall pass" statements from various voters who said they won't vote for any of these guys, and it's easy to see him having to wait until Unit, a fellow but clearly superior 300 game southpaw, gets in first. We've seen enough wacky ballots this year to know that some ballots will be pretty wacky.
   190. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: January 06, 2011 at 04:50 AM (#3724548)
yeah, considering the competition, Sammy Sosa should consider a comeback to delay his first trip to the ballot a bit
   191. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2011 at 04:57 AM (#3724551)
Morris only has three years left. If he doesn't go in by 2014, it's over for him until he gets elected by the VC.

Oops, I was thinking he stuck around until 2015.

1) He'll never be the story entering an election. Next year the focus will be on Larkin. The 2013 focus will be on the incoming class. Morris may be the top returning vote-getter next year, but the attention will be on the newcomers.

Good point.

2) He may not ever be the top-returning vote getter. Larkin is not a lock for 2012, and Bagwell could very well pull past him next year.

Agree on the first. Highly doubtful on the second and impossible if Morris sees the sort of jump that I and apparently Chris think is quite possible.
3) Being the top pitcher on the ballot is nice, but it's hard to see where it really moves the voters. Blyleven became the top pitcher on the ballot during his sixth year of eligibility. That didn't exactly grease the induction skids.

Not an appropriate definition of "best" in this context. Blyleven was 13% behind Gossage and Smith, 23% behind Sutter. It would be correct to say that being the best pitcher on the ballot in 2009 did him no good.

4) He has to make up more ground in his final three years then he has in the last six. It took Bert five years after finally reaching 50 percent to get in. It took Rice nine years after finally reaching 50 percent. Jack just reached it last year, and only has three years left.

On Rice, I believe he had at least one first-ballot inductee in all but one year after topping 50. On Blyleven, he was still 4th among the backlog candidates after breaking 50. 2007 saw Ripken and Gwynn push everybody down except Gossage (incl Blyleven below 50 and still 4th in the backlog). 2008 Gossage (#1 in the backlog, +15%; #2 gains 8); 2009 Rice (#1 in the backlog, +4%, #2 even -- Rickey effect); 2010 Dawson (#1 in the backlog, +11; Bert gains 11 -- despite Alomar effect); 2011 Alomar (+16) & Blyleven (+6) (#1 and #2 in the backlog; Larkin gains 10); 2012 Larkin? (#1 in the backlog). I'm seeing a trend. :-)

I don't think Morris has enough time left either, especially since 2014 is the year of the pitcher. But with a big jump next year, he's #1 in the backlog and possibly only 0-1 (actual, not deserving) first ballot guys entering in 2013. 2013 could be a bit like 2010 with Biggio and Morris in the 70-75 range ... then 2014 is really interesting, will they Bunning him?

Gossage is an interesting case. He was at 65% in 2006. Gwynn & Ripken on the ballot in 2007 and he still went up 6% following Sutter's election (passing Rice in the backlog). Then, as mentioned, he added 15% in his election year.

Anyway, my main point is that I don't think it's right to view 2013 as a Ryan, Brett, Yount, Fisk type of year. By the numbers, it should be and then some. But roids screws that all up and I think it's going to be more like a "normal" year with one 1st (or close to it) ballot inductee, some guys in the "everybody who debuts here makes it" range and the rest in the "get back to me in 5 years and I'll think about it" range. That will leave plenty of votes to throw at the #1 backlog, best pitcher on the ballot.

6) Only moving up slightly this year doesn't suggest the momentum of a runaway freight train.

No, it doesn't.

7) Finally, while it's not a dealbreaker as the Rice election shows, he's not worthy of being in the Hall of Fame. That's going to cut into the number of guys he's able to convert.

2007 to hopefully 2012 see substantial jumps and eventual election of #1 in the backlog. 2012 would seem to be bucking the trend if Morris doesn't get a nice boost -- true Bagwell could do to him what Larkin did this year. If he gets a big boost in 2012, 2013 would be bucking the trend if he didn't get another nice boost ... unless 2013 really is the year of Bonds and Clemens.

Can't find the post to quote now but Chris -- on the "size" of the backlog, I wouldn't do it by number >5%; I'd do it by total %age of votes used up. Might not make a difference in these particular cases but clearly having 10-15 guys down around 10% isn't really gonna make a difference.

I get the 2012 backloggers using up 398%. If voters are going to continue at 5.8 names per ballot, that's over 2/3 of the overall vote total -- that would seem to be a big backlog. My guesstimate is that the 2013 backlog will be something like 373% even without a big Morris bump (Larkin cleared off but Bernie at 10%, (mostly small) increases for Bagwell, Raines, Edgar, Trammell, Walker and Murphy (last year)).

Alternatively you could just do something like the number of 20%+ or 30%+ candidates or a simple weighting using the first digit.

Obviously if the average number of votes goes up a lot starting in 2013, there's less backlog pressure.
   192. Ron J Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:00 AM (#3724552)
How do you get Glavine 8th on his ballot?


Oh that's dead easy. The I hate the Union crowd. He's a pretty polarizing figure on a number of fronts. The story of Rick Reed will come up. And there are people who will blame the PA for the whole steroids in baseball. No idea how it'll play out in the end but I expect him to do worse than you'd expect for his stat line.
   193. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:05 AM (#3724554)
Not an appropriate definition of "best" in this context. Blyleven was 13% behind Gossage and Smith, 23% behind Sutter. It would be correct to say that being the best pitcher on the ballot in 2009 did him no good.


That should have said "top starting pitcher" on the ballot, which Bert was for 8 years before election.
   194. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:06 AM (#3724555)
The question everyone wants to know is - was Bert as gracious as Heyman demanded he be or was he a total dick?

Bert Blyleven released this statement today-- you be the judge:
"I consider myself fortunate that I have been voted into the Hall of Fame, and understand that while I had a great career, I am not Tom Seaver or Steve Carlton but rather Don Sutton and Phil Niekro, near-great pitchers who were borderline candidates that gained enshrinement, and I thank the small coterie of Internet zealots who kept calling attention to the value of strikeouts, shutouts, complete games, longevity and durability and helped me rise from 14 percent of the votes in my second year of eligibility to more than 75 percent and so, I now act gracefully upon hearing the good news. Hey, where the white women at? The heart wants what the heart wants. This crap you pull on me with this goddamn phone situation that you would never dream of doing to your mother, and you do it to me constantly... you are a rude, thoughtless little pig. Why are you walking right through, ah dah dah dah, in the background? You should just fucking smile... and blow me! Free Mumia!"
   195. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:13 AM (#3724560)
Hey I want to tell you something, okay, and I want to leave a message for you right now, because again it’s 10:30 here in New York on a Wednesday and once again, I have made an a$$ of myself trying to get to a phone to call you at a specific time. When the time comes for me to make the phone call, I stop whatever I am doing and I go and I make that phone call, at 11 o’clock in the morning in New York, and if you don’t pick up the phone, at 10 o’clock at night and you don’t even have that goddammm phone turned on.
   196. Mayor Blomberg Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:20 AM (#3724564)
McGwire? Well, he isn't as high, but his supporters are pretty solid. There's practically no movement on him at all either way. He'll lose some as people have to make room on their ballots for others, but will he really love over three-fourths his supporters?


He never impressed me as that kind of guy.
   197. Morty Causa Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:31 AM (#3724571)
Look, Marge, you don't know what it's like. _I'm_ the one out there every day putting his ass on the line. And I'm not out of order! _You're_ out of order. The whole freaking _system_ is out of order. You want the truth? You want the truth?! You can't handle the truth! 'Cause when you reach over and put your hand into a pile of goo that was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do! Forget it, Marge, it's Chinatown.
   198. DanG Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:38 AM (#3724576)
Tim Raines comps. All retired players with 430+ SB, 2100+ hits, 2150+ G, and 100+ HR (note that all 4 marks are well below Raines' totals):

Rk             Player   SB  HR    H    G WAR/pos From   To
1    Rickey Henderson 1406 297 3055 3081   113.1 1979 2003
2           Lou Brock  938 149 3023 2616    39.1 1961 1979
3             Ty Cobb  897 117 4189 3034   159.4 1905 1928
4          Tim Raines  808 170 2605 2502    64.6 1979 2002
5        Honus Wagner  723 101 3420 2794   134.5 1897 1917
6          Joe Morgan  689 268 2517 2649   103.5 1963 1984
7         Barry Bonds  514 762 2935 2986   171.8 1986 2007
8        Paul Molitor  504 234 3319 2683    74.8 1978 1998
9      Roberto Alomar  474 210 2724 2379    63.5 1988 2004
10       Tris Speaker  436 117 3514 2789   133.0 1907 1928 

Pretty good company.
   199. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:41 AM (#3724580)
The mess of a ballot in 2013 could keep Biggio off.

I don't see it. I think the steroid issue helps his number, not hurts it. Who's going to leave Biggio off of their ballot?


Around the time he retired, I remember hearing a few comments along the lines of "yeah, he has 3000 hits, but was he ever one of the 5 best players in the league?"

It's crap, of course; nobody could seriously look at Biggio's 1995 or 1997 season and not see one of the best players in baseball. But Biggio didn't have the same perception as Alomar during their careers - 7 All-Star games rather than 12, 1.02 MVP shares rather than 1.91, 4 Gold Gloves rather than 10, no World Series titles. (Also his postseason record is lousy, although I doubt that will make a difference.) And Alomar didn't get in on the first ballot, despite it not being 2013.

I don't know whether it'll keep him out or not, but a BBWAA-type case against him can be made.
   200. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:47 AM (#3724588)
I'm going to blatantly repost this, because nobody reads comment x00:

The mess of a ballot in 2013 could keep Biggio off.

I don't see it. I think the steroid issue helps his number, not hurts it. Who's going to leave Biggio off of their ballot?


Around the time he retired, I remember hearing a few comments along the lines of "yeah, he has 3000 hits, but was he ever one of the 5 best players in the league?"

It's crap, of course; nobody could seriously look at Biggio's 1995 or 1997 season and not see one of the best players in baseball. But Biggio didn't have the same perception as Alomar during their careers - 7 All-Star games rather than 12, 1.02 MVP shares rather than 1.91, 4 Gold Gloves rather than 10, no World Series titles. (Also his postseason record is lousy, although I doubt that will make a difference.) And Alomar didn't get in on the first ballot, despite it not being 2013.

I don't know whether it'll keep him out or not, but a BBWAA-type case against him can be made.
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