It’s hard to imagine Sandy Alderson letting a top prospect jump between three levels of competition in one year, burning arbitration clock, breaking his development schedule.

Who is he talking about?

In the case of the Mets, I don't think "burning arbitration clock" is something they need to worry about. It's not like they can't afford to keep their players when they reach free agency.

I don’t think Sandy Alderson would let a field manager play washed up veterans over promising young players for months at a time.

If you don't want to "burn arbitration clock" or "break development schedule" on your prospects, you've got to play those "washed-up veterans", no?

Who is he talking about?

I assume Mejia - started at high-A in 2009 and was on the big league roster to start 2010.

If you don't want to "burn arbitration clock" or "break development schedule" on your prospects, you've got to play those "washed-up veterans", no?

Depends on who you're talking about. I do think there's a difference between "let's jump our 20-year old top pitching prospect two or three levels so we can have a shiny new toy" and "let's give a guy like Nick Evans playing time in a lost season to assess whether he could be a marginally useful piece going forward."

a seamhead praising our new sabermetric overlord.

If you knew better, you'd join us in welcoming our new Sabermetric Overlords.

The Mets have had three uninspiring, mediocre managers in a row, starting with ex-Athletic Art Howe. I am concerned that the Mets under Alderson will hire dullard #4.

According to Joel Sherman's latest column:

Alderson will work to bring in a few loyalists from his past to help implement his philosophy. According to several sources, he already has reached out to Paul DePodesta, whom he hired in San Diego, to help strengthen the Mets’ statistical department and J.P. Ricciardi, whom he worked with in Oakland, to assist on player personnel. DePodesta, the former Dodgers GM, has to decide if he wants to leave the Padres for whom he is executive VP. A few executives briefed on the subject said they think DePodesta will join the Mets.

J.P. Ricciardi,

JP in New York????

J.P. Ricciardi

Everyone should begin preparing for the greatest PR disaster in history. This is going to be awesome.

JP in New York????

He's getting the band back together!

I mean, the guy managed to get into a non-stop stream of PR problems in Toronto, with his idiot comments on Dunn, his making a mess of the Halladay trade negotiations and the Carlos Delgado FA departure, the "It's not a lie if we know the truth" justification for hiding BJ Ryan's injury, the constant whining about payroll and how hard it was to beat the Yankees, and on, and on, and on....

Putting him in New York does not strike me as a good idea.

EDIT: I also forgot the comments on Gil Meche, when he declined to sign with Toronto.

Putting him in New York does not strike me as a good idea.

How much is he going to speaking to the press as an underling? I think you're worrying too much you nervous Canuck. He hasn't even been hired yet!

JP seems like a guy who knows what he's doing, just says really dumb things. As long as the Mets keep him in the background and away from the press I think he'll be fine.

Of course, if this means he is on the short list to replace Alderson in a few years...I refer you to Ryan's comment in #7.

EDIT: First non-alcoholic carbonated beverage during Spurs/ManU is on me Shooty

Given that I'm not a Mets fan, I'm not worrying at all. Rather, I'm viewing it as a new potential source of free entertainment. Assuming he is hired, I expect him to move into full yammering jackass mode within a couple weeks, making for a season of glorious idiocy.

If you don't want to "burn arbitration clock" or "break development schedule" on your prospects, you've got to play those "washed-up veterans", no?

That's only true if you haven't built a good enough, deep enough farm system to have decent prospects on schedule and actually ready to assume playing time. It is an indictment of the prior regime that the only choices (at many positions, anyway) were (1) washed-up veteran, or (2) unready prospect. Exhibit A for this was second base in 2010, in which it was either Castillo or Cora (Type 1), or Tejada (Type 2). Or we've seen it in the pitching staff, where the back end of the rotation has seen the Mets give critical starts (infamously) to a totally unready Phil Humber and a totally finished Brian Lawrence in 2007.

Wouldn't it be nice to actually have prospects who are ready to assume major-league responsibilities, have proved themselves ready with solid minor league performance that shows the system in place has helped them convert their tools into on-field success? In those cases, you don't mind "burning their arbitration clock" as they finish off their development at the major league level. That's the whole point.

Why haven't the Mets had enough strong prospects? A lot of reasons. Not spending enough on the best prospects, b/c they won't go over slot. They've lost picks to sign FAs. Some years they've drafted really badly, though in fairness they've had other years where the Minaya regime has done OK -- basically it's been a mixed record. Definitely not as good as it should have been, for a GM who came in promising to emphasize this. Some of it is trading away prospects for veterans, regardless of whether those trades were good (Johan), bad (Putz), or indifferent (Church/Schneider). Right now, they have too few prospects that are highly regarded by scout mavens, and too few who are performing lights-out in the minors.

So part of it is having enough prospects to bring them along when they are ready; the other part is managing those you have well. On that latter front, IMHO, the Mets haven't been doing that with their prospects. Look at Mike Pelfrey -- totally rushed, with only 33 minor league games, in which he certainly performed well, but was hardly dominant. He did in the majors a lot of the learning he might have done better and with less pressure in the minors -- and was burning up his arb clock along the way. Have the Mets managed Pelfrey in the way that has maximized his career or his value to the franchise? I seriously doubt it.

If you were to grade the Minaya Mets on the performance of the farm system, in yielding talent that either helped the organization on the field or by bringing back players in trade, it wouldn't be good. Only the Santana trade, and being very generous and optimistic about some of the talent in the pipeline, would earn it a C-. They did a bad job assembling talent, and a worse job developing it. Other than basic organizational management, there is nothing more critical that Alderson needs to improve than this.

I mean, the guy managed to get into a non-stop stream of PR problems in Toronto, with his idiot comments on Dunn, his making a mess of the Halladay trade negotiations and the Carlos Delgado FA departure, the "It's not a lie if we know the truth" justification for hiding BJ Ryan's injury, the constant whining about payroll and how hard it was to beat the Yankees, and on, and on, and on....

Putting him in New York does not strike me as a good idea.

While I'm with you on your assessment, and said this, combined with his poor track record in Toronto, would make him a bad fit for GM in NYC, he would be fine in a lesser role, especially if he was told not to talk to the press, not to single him out for his track record, but as part of a strategy to control the FO's message. And I say this as not a huge fan of JP.

As long as Ricciardi isn't heard from, and is put in the correct role, he can be a definite asset to most any club. He seemed to have a particular knack for pitchers on the scrap heap.

But you don't want his input on signing free agents. He'll sign everyone for 2 years too long at rates based on their past year's fluke season. And throw in a no-trade clause to boot.

JP seems like a guy who knows what he's doing, just says really dumb things. As long as the Mets keep him in the background and away from the press I think he'll be fine.

Like Tony Bernazard for example. :-)

Like Tony Bernazard for example.

Ah, yes. Another of the explanations for Omar's failure to have a productive enough farm system (# 13) . . . Putting a nutjob in charge of the minor league system will tend to cause problems. Sigh.

I think JP will be fine for the reasons already stated in #15, and Alderson holding the leash is another factor to consider.

Whether it's a good idea or a trainwreck waiting to happen, I admit I find the lack of interest in Valentine to be kind of interesting. I mean, again, I'm not even sure it would be a good idea, I'm just surprised we haven't heard more about it.


Right now, they have too few prospects that are highly regarded by scout mavens, and too few who are performing lights-out in the minors.

The latter may be true, but I find the former to be pretty inconsequential. I honestly don't really feel like we ever hear from actual scouts, just people reporting as if they were scouts. I dunno. The endless rankings from Sickels and similar rarely strike me as useful or accurate once people start playing in the bigs.

But how many teams have that "good enough, deep enough farm system to have decent prospects on schedule and actually ready to assume playing time"?

The Phillies this year had injuries to Howard, Utley, Rollins and Polanco and filled in with:

1B - 36-year-old Mike Sweeney, that they had to go outside of the organization to get.
2B/SS - 32-year-old Wilson Valdez, a Mets castoff from 2009
3B - 31-year-old Greg Dobbs
SS - 38-year-old Juan Castro

I think it's an unrealistic expectation that the farm system will be able to contribute productive young players at whatever position you need them, whenever you need them.

During the season the Mets farm system contributed four players who contributed regularly in September:

Josh Thole
Ike Davis
Ruben Tejada
Lucas Duda

Thole was a success, putting up a 99 OPS+ in 227 PA
Davis was a success, putting up a 115 OPS+ (and good defense) in 601 PA
Tejada and Duda were not ready

The production of the system could have been even better if Murphy hadn't gotten hurt on what was described as a dirty play while getting experience at 2B. Murphy would have easily bettered Tejada's production and allowed Tejada to play in the minors where he belonged.

I think it's an unrealistic expectation that the farm system will be able to contribute productive young players at whatever position you need them, whenever you need them.

Well, sure. But you can have a steady flow of talent generally, which if it doesn't quite meet current needs you can reshape via trades to get what you need. And frankly, the Mets haven't been able to produce a real, live second baseman or outfielder of consequence who has actually succeeded (for the Mets or anyone else) since . . . . geez, I can't remember. Is Jason Bay the last really outstanding outfielder to come out of the Mets' farm system? And we didn't even draft him, so at best partial credit to the system for developing him, and that's been since before the Minaya regime. It's been since Fonzie for a second baseman, I think. As for Murphy, there just isn't any evidence he could have handled the position defensively, though I was all for letting him learn it (or try to) in the minors. Who was the last all-star player of any kind the Mets developed? David Wright. I have high hopes for Niese, and see potential for growth in Davis and Thole. But if they are the best you've got currently at the major league level, I think that's more of an indictment than a vindication of the Minaya era.

The Phillies didn't have fill-ins for those injuries, but they had highly-regarded enough prospects to deal for Cliff Lee and then Roy Oswalt. And that's without giving up Dominic Brown, their Golden Boy, who is far more highly rated than anyone in the Mets' system right now. And even after those deals, the Phillies have a much deeper system beyond Brown than we do to restock their aging roster.

I'm sorry, but I just won't don rose-colored glasses here. The system is thin, the prospects haven't performed well enough, and the players who have come to the majors have been weak and haven't yielded much talent in trades. A major fix is needed.

Tejada and Duda were not ready

Duda had a .999 OPS in 264 AAA ABs. He's also 24. He's ready as he'll ever be.

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"Don grey-colored glasses" =/= "won't don rose-colored glasses".

I'm not looking to vindicate Minaya - instead I want to get an accurate gauge of what a farm system should be expected to produce for the major league club.

Of the top 15 players (8 position players, five SP, 2 RP), the 2011 Mets will have at least 8 of those as home grown players) in Thole, Davis, Wright, Reyes, Pagan, Pelfrey, Niese and Parnell. Potentially another starting pitcher and possibly even a 2B. How does that compare to other teams? Here's how the rest of the NL East looks:

Phillies (8) - Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Brown, Hamels, Kendrick, Madson
Braves (10) - McCann, Freeman, Prado, Jones, Heyward, Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Kimbrel, Venters
Marlins (5) - Sanchez, Morrison, Stanton, J. Johnson, C. Volstad
Nationals (8) - Espinosa, Zimmerman, Desmond, Bernardina, Zimmermann, Lannan, Stammen, Storen

Tejada and Duda were not ready

Duda had a .999 OPS in 264 AAA ABs. He's also 24. He's ready as he'll ever be.

Tejada was not ready

Duda had a slump - he had what? all of 92 PAs? He came up and promptly went 1 for 33, hitting .030/.135/.061

Then in his last 51 ABs he hit .314/.345/.647 (I AM NOT SAYING HE'S THAT GOOD)

Tejada had 250 PAs or so and hit .213/305/.282

I'm kind of warming to Tejada as a prospect actually, looks decent in the field, over matched (for now) at the plate but he seems to have a clue, willing to take pitches, seems to have some pitch recognition, decent speed (but not a burner),

I'm kind of warming to Tejada as a prospect actually, looks decent in the field, over matched (for now) at the plate but he seems to have a clue, willing to take pitches, seems to have some pitch recognition, decent speed (but not a burner),

I see Tejada as a utility infielder. I don't think he'll ever hit enough to be a starter. But, he's young, he's cheap and he's good defensively up the middle. So he should be on the roster next year.

I don't think he'll ever hit enough to be a starter. But, he's young, he's cheap and he's good defensively up the middle. So he should be on the roster next year.

If you think he's a non-prospect, then by all means have him on the roster as a defensive replacement, at least if Alderson can't find anything cheap better on the market. There's no long term cost in terms of his development. But if you think he's even a modestly decent prospect, then Tejada's place is in AAA working on his hitting with instructors who can take the time to really help him with it, even if it means hurting his short-term performance while he works on particular points he needs to improve, and not in the majors where the coaches have to be concerned about the short-term and winning.

I'm kind of warming to Tejada as a prospect actually, looks decent in the field, over matched (for now) at the plate but he seems to have a clue, willing to take pitches, seems to have some pitch recognition, decent speed (but not a burner),

Tejada had a strong September/October. He had something like a an .800 OPS with an 11/8 k/bb ratio. He is still 20. He's a prospect.

You heard it here last: Alderson's presser is tomorrow @ 2:00 EDT.

I have high hopes for Niese, and see potential for growth in Davis and Thole. But if they are the best you've got currently at the major league level, I think that's more of an indictment than a vindication of the Minaya era.

Sad state of affairs when the Mets seeming to produce bona fide major leaguers is cause for celebration.

If you think he's a non-prospect, then by all means have him on the roster as a defensive replacement, at least if Alderson can't find anything cheap better on the market. There's no long term cost in terms of his development. But if you think he's even a modestly decent prospect, then Tejada's place is in AAA working on his hitting with instructors who can take the time to really help him with it, even if it means hurting his short-term performance while he works on particular points he needs to improve, and not in the majors where the coaches have to be concerned about the short-term and winning.

His ISO in the minors was never above .100 (not counting VSL) and he's never drawn walks in anywhere close to 10% of his PA. His only redeeming features are good defense, makes contact and has a decent BA. None of that spells prospect to me. He's cheap and can play good D up the middle.