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Sunday, July 25, 2010

Angels acquire Dan Haren for Joe Saunders, 3 others

The first major pitching trade of deadline week came Sunday afternoon when the Los Angeles Angels acquired Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Joe Saunders and three other players.

Haren, 7-8 with a 4.60 ERA this year, was one of the major pitching targets among contenders before the July 31 deadline for non-waiver trades. He won at least 14 games in each of the previous five seasons with Oakland and Arizona, topping out at 16-8 with a 3.33 ERA in 2008. He is owed at least $29 million through 2012, including salaries of $12.5 million in 2011 and ‘12.

Also going to Arizona in the deal are left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, right-hander Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named later.

Saunders, an All-Star in 2008, had had an up-and-down year in the Angels’ rotation, going 6-10 with a 4.62 ERA. He is 54-32 lifetime.

Repoz Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:39 PM | 120 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, arizona

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   1. Justin T is going to crush some tacos Thursday Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:46 PM (#3598798)
I guess it’s contingent on the PTBNL, but I think that is a real shitty haul for Haren. And I don’t know who the PTBNL could be that would change that.

This is like Jose Lopez and other pieces of #### for John Danks.

Which is unfair to Corbin I suppose, but he’s so far away they’re basically just acquiring a roll of the dice.
   2. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3598801)
So can we now assume that when the Yankees are reportedly "close" to acquiring a player that it's not going to happen? First CLee and now DHaren.
   3. Metman died today. Or yesterday maybe, Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:50 PM (#3598804)
Quite possibly the worst trade in recent history. Makes Cleveland's Cliff Lee haul look absolutely balls deep. Oswalt should be available for half a bag of turds.
   4. 33Boots Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:53 PM (#3598809)
Wtf? Since Trout isn't going to be in this, the Angels don't have a prospect that can salvage that deal. Joke. No other word. Congrats to Angels fans for the steal. Sympathies to D'Backs fans.
   5. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:54 PM (#3598810)
Oswalt should be available for half a bag of turds.

Apparently they have asked the Dodgers for Kemp or Ethier.
   6. Metman died today. Or yesterday maybe, Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3598811)
The Angels have no prospect other than Trout that could salvage the deal and it's not Trout. An absolute disaster for Arizona. Wow.
   7. Good cripple hitter Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3598813)
When the Jays were shopping Halladay, one rumor was that he'd be traded to Anaheim with Joe Saunders as the centerpiece. I remember thinking that it was ridiculous to think that Joe Saunders could bring back an ace pitcher. Well, I've been proven wrong.
   8. Metman died today. Or yesterday maybe, Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:56 PM (#3598814)
Apparently they have asked the Dodgers for Kemp or Ethier.


It's Ed Wade. He traded Schilling and Rolen in the primes of their career for Vicente Padila, Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, and Mike Timlin.
   9. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 25, 2010 at 10:59 PM (#3598816)
Saunders was a deserved all-star in 2008. They didn't exactly give him away.
   10. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3598817)
Great long term trade for the Angels, but I don't think it will help them down the stretch. Haren tends to fade once you get to August. I noticed this when he was in Oakland and it has persisted in his time in Arizona. I have no idea what the D-Backs want with Joe Saunders, though.
   11. ColonelTom Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3598818)
Ruben Amaro Jr. has no longer made the stupidest deal of the last 12 months. He still has a chance to regain the title, though - give him time.
   12. hee came hee seop'd he choi'd Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3598819)
He could have success in the NL, but hes no spring chicken with a shitload of upside..
   13. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:00 PM (#3598820)
Was Arizona under some kind of pressure? Did Haren demand to be traded? I thought he was signed at a reasonable price? How do you trade a quality pitcher in his prime? Who trades a rotation anchor unless the organization's back is to the wall?

Sorry for all the questions. I am just puzzled.
   14. AROM Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:01 PM (#3598821)
Holy cow.
   15. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:01 PM (#3598823)
The cost-cutting angle doesn't make any sense. Saunders is about to get expensive. Unless they're just gonna flip him. . .
   16. Dan Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:03 PM (#3598828)
It's a good thing that Arizona dumped Josh Byrnes, so that they could put a braintrust in place to make deals like this.

Re: 15: It really does seem like they must have thoughts of flipping Saunders.
   17. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:03 PM (#3598829)
#7 - as an Angel fan, I totally agree. I am happy that I get to stop watching Saunders after this trade - if nothing else.

#6 - I assume that the prospect is Hank Conger. Conger is probably not going to be able to stay at catcher - he just re-injured his shoulder this week. A shoulder he had surgically repaired a couple of years ago. But, Conger should be able to hit in the bigs. His bat played better at catcher - but it might work at a corner in the NL. He has increased his walk rate and he looked pretty good in the Futures game. He looked like a hitter. His walk rate is solid (40BB in 300 AB's), but his power numbers are down.

Anyway, as it stands this is the steal for the Halos and even with Conger as the PTBNL, this is a clear win for LAAoA.

Nice to be on the right side of a trade for once.
   18. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:07 PM (#3598833)
What an epically terrible trade by Anaheim, unless both of those prospects are really good and I've just never heard of them because of my own ignorance. But it seems everyone else is on the same page on the prospects.
So can we now assume that when the Yankees are reportedly "close" to acquiring a player that it's not going to happen? First CLee and now DHaren.
Seriously. I think Cashman and Theo have switched bodies, Freaky Friday style. Hopefully the Red Sox will acquire a solid-average player for cash and a D-prospect this weekend.
   19. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:08 PM (#3598835)
But Joe Saunders is a 17 game winner!
   20. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:17 PM (#3598845)
Being a Cubs fan is the pits, but I don't envy Arizona fans. I'd be a bit upset if I were a fan of the other potential suitors for Haren's services, considering the relatively low asking price.
   21. Accent Shallow Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:21 PM (#3598850)
When the Jays were shopping Halladay, one rumor was that he'd be traded to Anaheim with Joe Saunders as the centerpiece. I remember thinking that it was ridiculous to think that Joe Saunders could bring back an ace pitcher. Well, I've been proven wrong.

Agreed.

Was Arizona under some kind of pressure? Did Haren demand to be traded? I thought he was signed at a reasonable price? How do you trade a quality pitcher in his prime? Who trades a rotation anchor unless the organization's back is to the wall?

I'll echo this -- I thought the smoke about AZ moving Haren was "if we're blown away". Clearly, this isn't a "blown away" type of package, even if the D-Backs' opinion of Saunders is significantly higher than everyone here's. This seems like a monetary issue, but since Saunders is about to get expensive, maybe they're flipping him.
   22. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:22 PM (#3598851)
I am surprised the Reds didn't make a deal happen. They have young pitching and Haren would crush the NL Central
   23. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:23 PM (#3598852)
Seriously. I think Cashman and Theo have switched bodies, Freaky Friday style. Hopefully the Red Sox will acquire a solid-average player for cash and a D-prospect this weekend.
From what I've seen, the Yankees were only interested in Haren if the Diamondbacks were willing to take part of the contract, because they would prefer to go after Lee this offseason, and don't see how they could sign him and still be under $200 million if they got Haren.
   24. Every Inge Counts Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:23 PM (#3598853)
Good lord, I thought they were asking for Andy Oliver and Jacob Turner as the starting piece from the Tigers.

I would have happily given them Porcello and crap prospects though.
   25. Dan Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:24 PM (#3598854)
I'm just shocked that St Louis, Detroit, Minnesota, Philly, or even the Yankees couldn't or wouldn't top this deal. I mean we all scoffed at the deal centered around Joba Chamberlain, but that deal was amazing compared to this pile of ####.

Everyone else must have been asking Arizona to pick up some of the contract or something, but even so, Saunders is about to enter arbitration and has some shiny W/L numbers for his career (if not this season). This just doesn't make any sense on any level.
   26. steagles Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:26 PM (#3598857)
apparently there's some talk of the PTBNL being tyler skaggs.
   27. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3598858)
Cards fans have to be aghast. Dan is correct. With Carpenter getting up in years Haren is a natural backfill. And makes that rotationa beast.
   28. Metman died today. Or yesterday maybe, Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3598860)
I'm just shocked that St Louis, Detroit, Minnesota, Philly, or even the Yankees couldn't or wouldn't top this deal. I mean we all scoffed at the deal centered around Joba Chamberlain, but that deal was amazing compared to this pile of ####.

Everyone else must have been asking Arizona to pick up some of the contract or something, but even so, Saunders is about to enter arbitration and has some shiny W/L numbers for his career (if not this season). This just doesn't make any sense on any level.


I think you have to conclude that Arizona's decisionmakers are complete morons. Occam's Razor and what not
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3598861)
From what I've seen, the Yankees were only interested in Haren if the Diamondbacks were willing to take part of the contract, because they would prefer to go after Lee this offseason, and don't see how they could sign him and still be under $200 million if they got Haren.

I think with Pettitte reportedly progressing nicely, the Yankees had zero urgency.

They're not going to acquire someone that forces them to put two of Hughes, Burnett and Vazquez in the pen for the postseason.
   30. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:28 PM (#3598862)
From what I've seen, the Yankees were only interested in Haren if the Diamondbacks were willing to take part of the contract, because they would prefer to go after Lee this offseason, and don't see how they could sign him and still be under $200 million if they got Haren.
I'm not saying the Yankees should have completed either of these trades. (Though I do think they should have completed the Haren trade. This is a ######' a trade, and everyone from the Yankees to the Padres should have gone for it.)

I'm just remarking on how the Yankees have been acting just like the Theo-era Red Sox at the trade deadline - rumors flying around all the top players, multiple reports it's "close", and then... nothing. This is what Theo has done just about every single deadline since he's been GM. It's funny that for reasons I don't understand, now the Yankees are doing it.

I don't think Theo should have completed most of the trades he was rumored to have "almost" gotten done, for instance.
   31. Dr. Vaux Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:28 PM (#3598863)
Hughes is looking like he might have to go to the bullpen a lot sooner than the postseason.

Perhaps Arizona has medical information on Haren that made them not want to risk giving him one more start before getting acceptable major-league level players in return for him . . .
   32. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:29 PM (#3598864)
The only way this deal is good for AZ is if Haren's issues this year are chronic and they know it.
   33. ColonelTom Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:29 PM (#3598865)
The only way this deal is good for AZ is if Haren's issues this year are chronic and they know it.

That's Lincecum, not Haren.
   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:35 PM (#3598866)
Hughes is looking like he might have to go to the bullpen a lot sooner than the postseason.

Why? Because he's struggling?

Young starters do that. He has to pitch through it and learn. He's not going to learn anything pitching in the pen.
   35. StHendu Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:35 PM (#3598868)
From MLB.com:
...D-backs team president and CEO Derrick Hall said Thursday that it would require an "A-plus deal" to move Haren,

Sounds like Mr. Hall wants to take credit for this move. This is just a short sighted corporate financial move.
   36. Steve Sparks Flying Everywhere Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:44 PM (#3598872)
Hopefully this deal doesn't turn into Kazmir 2.0
   37. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:45 PM (#3598873)
I'm just remarking on how the Yankees have been acting just like the Theo-era Red Sox at the trade deadline - rumors flying around all the top players, multiple reports it's "close", and then... nothing. This is what Theo has done just about every single deadline since he's been GM. It's funny that for reasons I don't understand, now the Yankees are doing it.

I'm not sure that Theo "did" anything at all those deadlines past, and I'm not sure that Cashman is doing anything this year. It's not like they can stop people from "reporting" any damned thing they please. Some of the same people who told us that the Yankees were on the verge of getting Haren two days ago are now saying that they were "never seriously engaged."
   38. Mattbert Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:46 PM (#3598875)
The GMs on all the other contending teams are wishing this was fantasy baseball right now so they could vote 'object' en masse and scupper the trade. "It's the new guy in the league! He doesn't know what he's doing!"

Chrizzist, that is an eye-spinningly horrible deal for Arizona.
   39. Rich Rifkin Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:48 PM (#3598879)
With Haren, Anaheim is now the third best team in the AL West.

Go A's! Oakland is the hottest team in the AL, now. They just finished off the White Sox, who were supposedly playing well coming into the series.
   40. 1k5v3L Posted: July 25, 2010 at 11:59 PM (#3598883)
+ Carlos Quentin, Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson + 6 kidneys
- Joe Saunders + 6 kidneys
= Profit!

D-backs team president and CEO Derrick Hall said Thursday that it would require an "A-plus deal" to move Haren,

Derrick Hall's definition of "A-plus deal" is getting 3 free tacos after the Dbacks score 6 runs.
   41. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:00 AM (#3598884)
"It's the new guy in the league! He doesn't know what he's doing!"
But his people kept saying "Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps."
   42. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3598887)
levski:

That's a pretty good promotion. Who doesn't like free tacos?
   43. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:07 AM (#3598889)

Sounds like Mr. Hall wants to take credit for this move. This is just a short sighted corporate financial move.
This is most likely the key driver for the trade. Word is their payroll will be at 60m or less next year. Granted, they get some stupid money off the books (I'm looking at you, Eric Flipper Byrnes), plus Webb's 8+m comes off too, and I'm sure they'll do their best to move Snyder and LaRoche.

My guess is they're looking at the Padres and thinking "Hey, Jeff Moorad did it over there, why can't we do it over here?" There are some basic problems with their thinking, of course, namely the fact that Jeff Moorad has people who know what they are doing, and they have some really good talent evaluators. I think Dipoto is a smart guy, but this is DHall and KKendrick calling the shots, and this won't end well.
   44. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:08 AM (#3598890)
That's a pretty good promotion. Who doesn't like free tacos?
Of course, the Dbacks have that promotion so Joe can round up illegals at Taco Bell after each game and ship them south of the border.
   45. BWV 1129 Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:11 AM (#3598894)
I am satisfied with this trade, though we still only have four real starters.
   46. shoewizard Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:13 AM (#3598896)
The problem for the D Backs is they are selling low. While those inclined to use FIP and xFIP and WAR as their barometers for current and future pitching performance still see him as an elite, ace like pitcher, the potential buyers for Harens services for the most part don't put as much emphasis on those things and he is not really viewed as Elite. He is viewed as a rung or even two below the elite pitchers in the game by most front offices.

Haren has been pretty darn mediocre for a year now. He had a bad 2nd half last year and a bad first half this year.

Over his last 35 Starts, 240 IP he is 12-13 with a 4.73 ERA, and has given up 38 homeruns amongst his 260 hits allowed Of course he has a stellar K/BB ratio, 227/49, so that would seem to indicate it's mostly bad luck with BABIP and HR/FB ratio. But I'm not so sure it's that simple. I think there has been a slight degradation of his stuff. Also, NL hitters are being more aggressive with his first offerings now......Haren always throws strike one.

His stuff has seemed straighter and more hittable, and there might be some evidence of that in pitchfx, especially with the cutter, which he was using for so much of his success his first year and a half in AZ.

This doesn't look like a good deal for AZ at first....it will look better if they get Skaggs. Maybe they should have just held out for more or not traded him, but clearly that was not an option financially. If it's true that they are planning to go to 60-65 million payroll, then they HAD to trade Haren.

Salary dump, with some potential return is about the best they could do when selling a guy low under duress.
   47. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:14 AM (#3598897)
isn't there some foul-mouthed dude around here who roots for the D-Backs?

edit: whoops! coke to the dude himself....
   48. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:14 AM (#3598898)
has given up 38 homeruns amongst his 38 Homers allowed

76 homers? No wonder they traded him!
   49. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:15 AM (#3598899)
JOE ####### SAUNDERS?
   50. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:16 AM (#3598900)
shoe:

What duress?
   51. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:16 AM (#3598902)
Seriously, I've noticed this season that Haren often is left in longer than would be allowed a non-ace, mostly because the D-backs currently live in holy terror of their bullpen.
   52. crict Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:17 AM (#3598904)
That looks like Bartolo Colon for Jeff Liefer, Rocky Biddle and Orlando Hernandez.
   53. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:17 AM (#3598905)
D'backs beat writer for the AZ Republic says the PTBNL is Skaggs.
   54. nick swisher hygiene Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:18 AM (#3598906)
Over his last 35 Starts, 240 IP he....has given up 38 homeruns amongst his 38 Homers allowed


over my last 35 starts I've given up 38 home runs: only allowed 23, though.
what's my secret? pitching coaches everywhere ask........
   55. BWV 1129 Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:20 AM (#3598907)
Seriously, I've noticed this season that Haren often is left in longer than would be allowed a non-ace, mostly because the D-backs currently live in holy terror of their bullpen.

That's not really going to change in Los Angeles of Anaheim.
   56. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:21 AM (#3598908)
What duress?
They are broke.

76 homers? No wonder they traded him!
Check back at the end of the year; his total won't be far off.

D'backs beat writer for the AZ Republic says the PTBNL is Skaggs
Nick speculated that earlier, seems like it's confirmed. He did write "barring something unexpected" - which to me, at least, says the Dbacks may opt out for 12 flea infested blankets instead.
   57. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:36 AM (#3598911)
Man, the Diamondbacks are the best run, most gratifying to watch, team of the enlightened fan. Bravo.
   58. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:44 AM (#3598912)
As a Mets fan, you definitely should know about best run, most gratifying, teams to watch.
   59. bads85 Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:56 AM (#3598921)
Not sure where else to post this:

Twenty-two year old Kenley Jansen picked up his first major league save today. This time last year, he was just being converted from a A ball catcher to pitcher (he was the Dutch's catcher in the WBC). In the brief time he was in the minors (56.7 IP), he had a K rate of 15.4/ 9 IP. Last year, his K/9 IP was 14.7, and he mostly was a starter. When Dwight Gooden struck out 300 batter in his A ball season, he K rate was 14.1. Granted, Gooden was just 19, but the Dodgers have something special in Jansen.
   60. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 12:58 AM (#3598924)
Not sure where else to post this:
Maybe in the "Kershaw, Jansen shut down Mets, 1-0" thread?
   61. hokieneer Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:10 AM (#3598927)
I am surprised the Reds didn't make a deal happen. They have young pitching and Haren would crush the NL Central

My neither Harvey. I've had hopes the Reds were in the Oswalt market, but c'mon if this is all it took to get Haren the Reds could have blown this offer out of the water (in fairness to LAA, I'm sure they would have gave up more for Haren if they had to).

I think you could make a very reasonable argument that, given the contracts, that Haren was worth than Lee this trading deadline.

Joe Saunders??
   62. Buford Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:18 AM (#3598933)
No way to evaluate this trade until Skaggs and Corbin perform in AZ. Also Saunders could be traded at next year's trade deadline if he performs well in the weaker NL. Come to think of it, Saunders could be traded at THIS year's trade deadline.
   63. BWV 1129 Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:19 AM (#3598935)
Saunders isn't that bad. He's a mid-rotation guy who can rack up some innings and win you a few games.
   64. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:19 AM (#3598936)
Over his last 35 Starts, 240 IP he is 12-13 with a 4.73 ERA, and has given up 38 homeruns amongst his 260 hits allowed Of course he has a stellar K/BB ratio, 227/49, so that would seem to indicate it's mostly bad luck with BABIP and HR/FB ratio. But I'm not so sure it's that simple. I think there has been a slight degradation of his stuff.


The Dbacks *must* think this is indicative of his true performance going forward. But his BABIP is by far the highest of his career (.350). This could be due to a degradation of stuff, though. It's hard to say without a scouting analysis or an analysis of the Dbacks defense.
   65. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:24 AM (#3598937)
The Dbacks *must* think this is indicative of his true performance going forward. But his BABIP is by far the highest of his career (.350). This could be due to a degradation of stuff, though. It's hard to say without a scouting analysis or an analysis of the Dbacks defense.
I hope Haren's not watching the Angels-Rangers game going on right now. The Halo outfield has less range than William Hung.
   66. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:26 AM (#3598941)
After hearing all the proposed potential deals for pitchers this year I'm wondering why teams that are out of contention don't start entering into some of these trade talks.

(I understand some guys have a no-trade clause)

This is basically the equivalent of signing Haren to a 2 year deal at $16mil/per with an option, if he was a free agent this offseason he'd easily get a contract at least twice as long.


That has to be worth a package better than what the angels gave u (even one beter than he proposed yankees ones).

Couldn't the royals have thrown together a package? Haren would be better than any free agent signing they could possibly make, and would be cheaper too.
   67. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:29 AM (#3598942)

Couldn't the royals have thrown together a package?
I believe their focus is on acquiring Frenchy and Ollie Perez.
   68. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:30 AM (#3598943)
The Halo outfield has less range than William Hung.
That's OK, they'll mostly exercise their necks anyhow...
   69. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:31 AM (#3598944)
Also,
Arizona's struggles the past few years have to be a bit of a surprise don't they?
weak division, a system loaded with prospects, two great pitchers etc etc.
   70. Craig in MN Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:32 AM (#3598947)
I'm just shocked that St Louis, Detroit, Minnesota, Philly, or even the Yankees couldn't or wouldn't top this deal.


FWIW, I think he had Minnesota & Detroit on his no-trade list.
   71. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:39 AM (#3598952)
Great deal for the DBacks.

Counterintuitive Malcolm Gladwell explanation to follow.
   72. Greg Franklin Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:42 AM (#3598956)
Wrong Hole Buster allegedly opined on "Baseball Tonight" that Corbin is the real prize prospect of the bunch from AZ's POV, most likely based on that impressive 13-3/3.87 A-ball season mentioned in the article. Is flouting TINSTAAPP the new Moneyball strategy?
   73. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:44 AM (#3598957)

Arizona's struggles the past few years have to be a bit of a surprise don't they?
weak division, a system loaded with prospects, two great pitchers etc etc.

Two great pitchers? Well, Billy Buckner thinks you're too kind.

Brandon Webb has started exactly 1 game over the last two seasons, and he was already toast mid-way through the 2008 season as well. They've had one great starter in Haren, and he's been pretty mediocre this year to boot.

Additionally, they traded the better prospects to acquire Haren; since being traded, Quentin has put up 127 OPS+ in Chicago, and CarGo has put up 117 OPS+ the last two seasons in Colorado. For comparison, the best hitter on the Dbacks roster since the Haren trade has been Upton, with 118+ OPS. All the other guys (Reynolds, Drew, Young, Jackson) have underwhelmed.

It didn't help that they invested 30m in Eric Byrnes. Heck, the Byrnes extension, followed by the Haren and Valverde trades, did so much damage to the Dbacks organization that it'll take them years to recover - by which time Upton, Reynolds, et al, will be nearing free agency, so they'll be traded for some projectable guys to fuel the inevitable run in 2019.
   74. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:49 AM (#3598960)
levski:

If I am reading you correctly, and I could be mistaken here, you are unhappy with the direction of the Diamondbacks?
   75. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:52 AM (#3598963)
weak division


Such a weak division that it includes the teams with the 1st and 3rd best records in the NL?
   76. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:55 AM (#3598964)
Harvey, I've been pissed off about the direction of the Diamondbacks since the Eric Byrnes extension 3 years ago.
   77. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:57 AM (#3598965)
Harvey, I've been pissed off about the direction of the Diamondbacks since the Eric Byrnes extension 3 years ago.
Oh, but the merchandise sales! And the kids, they loved Byrnsie's TV show...
   78. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 26, 2010 at 01:59 AM (#3598967)
levski:

Sh*t son, I was born angry. And it just kept building. Ha!
   79. Lassus Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:03 AM (#3598970)
I'm suspecting you guys don't trust our man on the inside, Carlos, hmmmm?
   80. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:07 AM (#3598971)
leviski et al,

I kind of meant the D-Backs over the last 5-6 years (I do agree that the NL west is now a strong division).

I remember back in 2005 their system seemed loaded.
Even now when I watch them I expect them to be better, just because I see all the old prospects I used to think would be super stars.

Is it just a fluke? did they just trade away the wrong prospects and keep all the guys who flopped?
   81. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:12 AM (#3598975)
Is it just a fluke? did they just trade away the wrong prospects and keep all the guys who flopped?
A disaster like this has many reasons.
Staff ace gets hurt; a stupid signing hamstrings the budget; the hiring of an unproven manager goes poorly; bad trades (Valverde, for one); black swans, such as CoJack coming down with Valley Fever, of all things...
   82. akrasian Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:15 AM (#3598979)
Such a weak division that it includes the teams with the 1st and 3rd best records in the NL?

The NL West has the best overall record of any division in the NL this season, despite the Dbacks.

They had the best overall record of any division in the NL last season, despite San Diego.

As you correctly point out, they haven't been weak for a while now. The average division in the NL is still weaker than the average in the AL, but that difference seems to be shrinking, and the NL West has been the strongest in the NL at least for the past year and a half. That may change if the Dodgers have to cut payroll because of the divorce, although losing Manny's contract will help. He still is hitting, but not at the same level, and can't stay healthy and can't play defense, so a cheaper option could replace him fine.
   83. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:22 AM (#3598986)
Is it just a fluke? did they just trade away the wrong prospects and keep all the guys who flopped?
That's a part of it - see post 73. Post 81 sums up the rest.
   84. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:27 AM (#3598989)
Thanks, it's kind of embarrassing how little I pay attention to the NL west, no idea why it is.
   85. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:32 AM (#3598992)
Thanks, it's kind of embarrassing how little I pay attention to the NL west, no idea why it is.
You're better off that way, trust me.
   86. AROM Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:34 AM (#3598993)
On the MLB trade rumors post:

Corbin, who turned 21 on Monday, is a lefthander with "much of his value tied to the development of his fastball", according to Baseball America's Prospect Handbook. At 6'3", the super-athletic hurler can dunk a basketball without a running start.


I like Corbin, he's a very good prospect, but that does not make you a super athlete. I'm 6'3". I can't jump now but when I was Corbin's age I could dunk with or without a running start. Two hands was easy, could almost but not quite dunk backwards. You can see where all that super-athleticism got me.

I suspect the majority of 6'3 athletes under 200 pounds could do the same.
   87. Darren Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:44 AM (#3598995)
Who was the guy who they used to say could dunk a shotput? Bo Jackson?
   88. Ozzie's gay friend Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:45 AM (#3598996)
Aron,

Really? I'm 6'3" and could never dunk.

Many of the guys I played with (or more accurately watched play) who were my height couldn't dunk.

Two guys I came up with who were both 6'3" ended up playing scholarship ball at well-known colleges couldn't dunk without a running start (and not two handed).
   89. Dan Posted: July 26, 2010 at 02:55 AM (#3599002)
I wonder if this trade will be the kick in the ass that one of the Oswalt suitors will need to get a deal done.

Alternatively, the Astros will overplay their hand and demand too much for Oswalt since they know that most people's fallback position is no longer available.
   90. Downtown Bookie Posted: July 26, 2010 at 03:09 AM (#3599009)
That may change if the Dodgers have to cut payroll because of the divorce, although losing Manny's contract will help. He still is hitting, but not at the same level, and can't stay healthy and can't play defense, so a cheaper option could replace him fine.


So you're saying that you expect Manny Ramirez to join the Mets any day now?

DB
   91. shoewizard Posted: July 26, 2010 at 03:39 AM (#3599031)
shoe:

What duress?


Harvey, maybe duress is too strong a word. But attendance has completely tanked. If they "need" to lop 15-20 million off the payroll...which is looking likely.....then they had to start with Haren. There was no other way.
   92. Rich Rifkin Posted: July 26, 2010 at 04:07 AM (#3599040)
Haren's great xFIP supposedly says he will be great going forward. However, there may be a problem with that for the Angels down the stretch. I expect he won't live up to his xFIP.

Haren has a habit of getting worse as his seasons have gone along. His strike out-rate and walk-rate tends to hold steady. His problem is that his home runs allowed per AB goes up as the season drags on and he gets tired. His BABIP also inflates a lot (by .051 for his career) and I think that is mostly due to the fact that he is getting hit much harder when he gets hit--more line drives, more hard hit fly balls to the outfield, more home runs. I doubt his BABIP regularly inflates in the second half of Haren's seasons because each year the defense behind him goes bad.

So while it is true that his Tango numbers say he projects very well going forward, they don't account for his usual second half swoon. Go A's!
   93. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: July 26, 2010 at 04:17 AM (#3599043)
But attendance has completely tanked. If they "need" to lop 15-20 million off the payroll...which is looking likely.....then they had to start with Haren. There was no other way.

But trading your best pitcher for a lousy return will surely hurt attendance for the rest of the year and have an adverse impact on season ticket renewals next year. If this really was the best package they could get for Haren now -- which seems unlikely -- it's not obvious that they wouldn't have been better off holding onto him at least for the rest of the year and trying to make a better deal in the off-season.
   94. Good cripple hitter Posted: July 26, 2010 at 04:33 AM (#3599047)
Is the attendance problem really so bad? Baseball Reference has Arizona losing 622 fans per game compared to the same number of home games last year. That sounds bad, but not so catastrophic that it'd require millions in payroll to be slashed in a fire sale.
   95. shoewizard Posted: July 26, 2010 at 04:43 AM (#3599050)
The seats are empty and season ticket holders aren't showing up and even their friends that they try to give them away to aren't showing up. They have projections for single game sales the rest of the year that I'm sure are not rosey....

Then there are season ticket renewals, which actually go out pretty soon...like in another month or so.

The only thing that is going to keep season ticket renewals from completely collapsing is the All Star game.
   96. Greg Franklin Posted: July 26, 2010 at 04:56 AM (#3599051)
Joe Sheehan just weighed in, all but calling the D-Backs EIB's:

Link

Kudos to Zuvella (#71) and GS4RB (#81) for the Gladwell and "black swan" references. If someone makes an allusion to street-gang economics, this thread will be complete!
   97. shoewizard Posted: July 26, 2010 at 05:03 AM (#3599052)
But trading your best pitcher for a lousy return will surely hurt attendance for the rest of the year and have an adverse impact on season ticket renewals next year. If this really was the best package they could get for Haren now -- which seems unlikely -- it's not obvious that they wouldn't have been better off holding onto him at least for the rest of the year and trying to make a better deal in the off-season.


Valid arguement. The Royals and Pirates say hello. I'm just trying to offer some possible insight into what they MAY be thinking. Of course they may think that Corbin and Sakggs(?) are going to be great, and in the meantime Saunders is going to win 15 games the next two years. I have no idea.

One point .......Haren's market value is/was lower than everyone here and at fangraphs thinks....because the people who set the market value are the buyers. And the buyers look at his last year of poor results and feel he is not as sure a bet as he was 12 months ago. So there was never any chance that the d backs were going to get as good a haul as everyone thinks they should have. This deal appears to fall short of even pessimistic expectations though, I agree. You almost never make a good deal when you feel you HAVE to make a deal. That seems to be the case here.
   98. shoewizard Posted: July 26, 2010 at 05:18 AM (#3599056)
Joe Sheehan just weighed in, all but calling the D-Backs EIB's:


In the article he mentions briefly Haren's HR/FB rate...(13.9% vs. lg avg 10%) The Fangraphs article referred to Haren's HR/FB rate as "unsustainable". That may well be the case in Anaheim. But in Chase Field, it's been pretty high the last two years running, and is high for his career. (Over 11%)

His HR/FB rate was over 12 the first two years he was a starter in Oakland, that bastion of the long ball. He had a two year "dip" in HR/Fb to just a bit better than league avg.... and now it's back up over 12 over the last two seasons combined.

So the HR problem Haren has is not a "fluke". His HR/FB rate is only about 1-2 percentage points higher than it should be expected to be.

The other point Sheehan tried to make is Harens batted ball profile hasn't changed. Thats not true. Haren is inducing a career low rate of GB. In fact the GB rate has dropped every year for 5 straight years. His LD rate has held steady. So the .350 BABIP of course looks unlucky, and is.......to a point. But Haren has definitely been more "Hittable" the last 12 months. It's not ALL bad luck. Nobody watching his every start would think it was bad luck. The quality of contact against him is clearly better. These aren't just bloopers falling in.

Still....a change of scenery and getting out of Chase Field and back in the NL West should help him.
   99. Walt Davis Posted: July 26, 2010 at 05:38 AM (#3599059)
I could dunk with or without a running start

We're talking donuts right?
   100. 1k5v3L Posted: July 26, 2010 at 05:46 AM (#3599061)
Shoewizard, you really should stop watching the games and go back to your spreadsheets.
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