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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Angels and Trout agree (Report)

Seems like Trout will spend his whole career in LA. Money seems reasonable, but I’m curious if this supersedes the last two years of his current deal, or is an add-on starting in 2021.

Awaiting confirmation from the team…

JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:35 AM | 134 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, hall of fame, mike trout, money

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   1. Shredder Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:43 AM (#5823678)
This may come as a shock, but I'm kinda happy about this.
   2. JRVJ Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5823680)
I certainly thought that he was going to end up with the Phillies, but in any case, good for Mike.

What this DOES mean is that the quality of FAs reaching the market in the near future (with Arenado and Innerest HoF Trout not testing the waters) is going to be a lot more lackluster than it seemed a month ago (hopefully Mookie Betts does test the FA waters)
   3. jmurph Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:51 AM (#5823681)
Seems like Trout will spend his whole career in LA. Money seems reasonable, but I’m curious if this supersedes the last two years of his current deal, or is an add-on starting in 2021.

Seeing on twitter that it's counting the final two years of his current deal- unclear if those are being torn up (that's not usually a thing in MLB, right?) or if it's frankly just being misreported to sound bigger, NFL-style.
   4. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5823682)
It seems that this does supersede his current deal. So, he’s 39 when it’s done, and makes $35.8 million per year.

Damn reasonable deal from the club perspective.

Wow.
   5. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5823683)

This may come as a shock, but I'm kinda happy about this.


I'm not an Angel fan, but I am too.
   6. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5823684)
(hopefully Mookie Betts does test the FA waters)


Why would this be a good thing? I think it's nice when teams have long-term home-grown stars.
   7. Shredder Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5823685)
Seeing on twitter that it's counting the final two years of his current deal- unclear if those are being torn up (that's not usually a thing in MLB, right?) or if it's frankly just being misreported to sound bigger, NFL-style.
Weird, though, since he's already making over $34MM the next two years. You'd think they'd just call it a 10 year extension for $360MM or something. It would be one thing to tear up the next two years if he was still making $20MM (which was his 2017 salary).

BTW, I'm assuming this makes him the highest paid player for his entire career in MLB history, right? He's basically just over $500MM now. Who's next?
   8. Cris E Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5823686)
This way he gets to wear Harper's cool new Highest Paid crown.
   9. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5823687)
A-Rod is number one at 399 million. But, uh, Trout hasn't actually been paid all this money yet, so by the time this happens I wouldn't say it's guaranteed he will be the longterm record holder.
   10. caspian88 Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:09 AM (#5823688)
So Trout needs to be worth around 45-50 WAR over the rest of his career to be "worth" this contract, right (at $8 M/WAR, over his entire career Trout has already been worth this deal)?

That's certainly plausible.
   11. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5823689)
I will add that Miguel Cabrera is at 246 and has 5 years left at 154, so he'll be the first to hit 400 million. (Exactly!)
   12. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5823690)
This has luxury tax implications if it replaces previous contract. The AAV of the first extension was about $25 million. Now it’s $35.8. So, a tax hit of about $11 million this and next year. It does make me wonder if it supersedes his previous deal - because that could limit what they can do this next offseason.

And Shredder, adding up the money puts him at $575+ million in his extensions.

Not sure about pre-arb money, but $580 million seems about right.

Wow.
   13. JRVJ Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5823691)
Why would this be a good thing? I think it's nice when teams have long-term home-grown stars.


Because an active hot-stove is fun !
   14. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5823696)
Vast overpay. Dude hasn't even won an MVP in 2 years!
   15. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5823697)
Why would this be a good thing? I think it's nice when teams have long-term home-grown stars.



Because an active hot-stove is fun !


I know I am very excited for the next copy and paste batch of articles and discussions about how free agency is completely broken and players are getting ######, all because Betts wasn't signed at the winter meetings.
   16. Shredder Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5823701)
And Shredder, adding up the money puts him at $575+ million in his extensions.
I'm seeing just shy of $80MM to date, with the Angels on the hook for about $70MM more. But if those years get torn up and replaced with this deal, that puts him just over $500MM, correct? That's what I was assuming, not counting any signing bonus.
   17. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5823702)
How long before Trout buys The Weather Channel? Over-under of 7 days.
   18. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:24 AM (#5823703)
I can't imagine the Sox let Betts see free agency unless something catastrophic happens in the interim.
   19. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5823706)
Couple of tweets now saying it's basically a 10 year extension, as he still gets paid the same amount the next 2 years. Full no trade, no opt outs. I kinda like that trend.

Something like this should make teams like the Sox (with Betts) and Cubs (with Bryant) try even harder to get those guys to sign extensions, IMO.
   20. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5823714)
Shredder - good point. Just over $510. I forgot to remove the two years that got superseded.
   21. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:36 AM (#5823716)
This may come as a shock, but I'm kinda happy about this.

I'm not an Angel fan, but I am too.

I like it any time a superstar stays with the team that signed him.
   22. caspian88 Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:43 AM (#5823718)
Active stars still with their original teams (player, age, team, seasons under contract, age at end of contract):

Joey Votto (35), Cincinnati Reds (2007-2023/24, 39/40)
Mike Trout (27), Los Angeles Angels (2011-2030, 38)
Adam Wainwright (37), St. Louis Cardinals (2005-2019, 37)
Yadier Molina (36), St. Louis Cardinals (2004-2020, 37)
Dustin Pedroia (35), Boston Red Sox (2006-2021, 37)
Ryan Braun (35), Milwaukee Brewers (2007-2020/21, 36/37)
Alex Gordon (35), Kansas City Royals (2007-2019/20, 35/36)
Brett Gardner (35), New York Yankees (2008-2019, 35)
Ryan Zimmerman (34), Washington Nationals (2005-2019/20, 34/35)
Buster Posey (32), San Francisco Giants (2009-2021/22, 34/35)
Stephen Strasburg (30), Washington Nationals (2010-2023, 34)
Jose Altuve (29), Houston Astros (2011-2024, 34)
Nolan Arenado (28), Colorado Rockies (2013-2025, 34)
Corey Kluber (33), Cleveland Indians (2011-2019/21, 33/35)
Felix Hernandez (33), Seattle Mariners (2005-2019/20, 33/34)
Elvis Andrus (30), Texas Rangers (2009-2022/23, 33/34)
Clayton Kershaw (31), Los Angeles Dodgers (2008-2021, 33)
Freddie Freeman (29), Atlanta Braves (2010-2021, 31)
Madison Bumgarner (29), San Francisco Giants (2009-2019, 29)

Some of these guys are all but guaranteed to spend their entire careers in one uniform.
   23. Esoteric Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5823720)
Intellectually I want to object to the dollar value on this deal. My GALAXY BRAIN is telling me that it will be a disaster should one errant mishap take place. Or even the natural aging curve.

My GALAXY HEART, however, is happy as hell for Trout and Angels fans. He is our greatest player in the modern era and it now looks like he'll quite possibly be an Angel for life. Let's just hope they put enough talent around him to get him a ring.
   24. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5823721)
Oh, he'll be a part-time DH for the Monterrey A's in 2032. We all know it.
   25. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5823722)
A-Rod is number one at 399 million.


I will add that Miguel Cabrera is at 246 and has 5 years left at 154, so he'll be the first to hit 400 million. (Exactly!)


Where are you getting your numbers? BBREF has ARod at $441 mil.

edit: OK, BBREF has ARod at $399 mil on their career earnings leader board, but his player page has $441.
   26. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:54 AM (#5823723)
I got them from BBREF too...?
   27. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5823724)
I got mine from this list
   28. JAHV Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5823725)
YES!!!!!! This makes my day. So happy right now!

Trout is halfway to either Ted Williams (fWAR) or Stan Musial (bWAR) in WAR for a player who played for only one franchise. He's at 64 wins and those guys are at 130 and 128, respectively. Those marks are attainable. He's got some work to do if he wants to catch Willie Mays for most WAR with one franchise at 155.

This seems like a great deal for both sides. And Trout will be revered in Anaheim no matter what happens, even if he goes full Pujols.

That said, please don't go full Pujols, Mike.
   29. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5823729)
He's got some work to do if he wants to catch Willie Mays for most WAR with one franchise at 155.


This Mays guy was pretty good.
   30. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5823730)
As for someone beating Trout to $500 mil, who's that going to be? As you said, Miggy will top out at $400. Pujols about $350. He's unlikely to make any more after that. Kershaw will be barely halfway there after age 33. Greinke will be at $317 when his deal is up age age 38. price will be at $271 when his deal is up at age 37. Scherzer at $239 at the same age. Chris Sale could get a Bryce Harper contract after this year and not clear $400. Strasburg can opt out after this year and get a Harper contract and not get there. Ditto Heyward. It won't be Stanton, $323 through age 38.

I don't see anyone.
   31. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5823731)
Going to be awfully hard for any future free agent to make more than $36M a season. The negotiations will include a "Do you think you're better than Mike Trout?" question.
   32. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5823732)
any future free agent


No one playing right now, but by 2030, is it not possible that inflation changes the picture? I dunno about that.
   33. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:17 PM (#5823733)
I got mine from this list


Yeah, I saw that. Don't know which is correct. This site. has him at $445, including incentive bonuses which BBREF may not count.
   34. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:20 PM (#5823736)
By 2030 there probably will be someone in MLB better than Mike Trout. Of course Mike Trout will be 38 years old then.
   35. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5823741)
Yeah, it is hard to call paying someone $35.83 million per year for the next 12 years a steal, but, I think this is a steal for the Angels. At 8 million per war he will have paid for himself by the time he is 32-33 years old.
   36. DCA Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5823745)
As for someone beating Trout to $500 mil, who's that going to be?

Two possibilities:

(1) Betts. If he puts up two more years like 2018, and then goes on the FA market having earned ~$60m through 2020, there could be a bidding war.

(2) Machado. Per B-R, if he opts out he'll be at $174m after 2023. Maybe 7/$326 would be on the table at that time.

But both seem like long shots. Either guy might be able to beat Trout's career total eventually, but not beat him to $500m (by 2030).
   37. TDF, trained monkey Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:38 PM (#5823746)
So Trout needs to be worth around 45-50 WAR over the rest of his career to be "worth" this contract, right (at $8 M/WAR, over his entire career Trout has already been worth this deal)?
Fangraphs has Trout as worth $494.5M, so he needs 2 WAR over the next 12 seasons for the Angels to break even on everything they have, or will, pay him.
So Trout needs to be worth around 45-50 WAR over the rest of his career to be "worth" this contract...That's certainly plausible.
Of Trout's 10 most similar hitters thru age-26, six put up 49+ bWAR over the remainder of their career, and Cabrera's at 43.4 and counting. So, yeah entirely plausible.

Upside? #4 comp Aaron put added 96.4 bWAR after turning 27.
This seems like a great deal for both sides. And Trout will be revered in Anaheim no matter what happens, even if he goes full Pujols.

That said, please don't go full Pujols, Mike.
Even though he's been replacement level over the past 3 seasons, Pujols has put up 53.8 bWAR since turning 27. I think the Angels will take that.
   38. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:47 PM (#5823749)
Two possibilities:

(1) Betts. If he puts up two more years like 2018, and then goes on the FA market having earned ~$60m through 2020, there could be a bidding war.

(2) Machado. Per B-R, if he opts out he'll be at $174m after 2023. Maybe 7/$326 would be on the table at that time.


Betts. As you say he will be ~$60 mil by 2020. By 2020, Trout will be at $146. Betts would have to get paid about $10 mil more/year to beat Trout to $500.

Machado. He'll be at $174 through 20203. No details yet on Trout's contract, but assuming the yearly salary is simply $36/year, he's at $254. He would have to get $13 mil more per year to beat trout to $500.
   39. Zonk Didn't But He'd Do It Again Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:49 PM (#5823751)
I suppose it's a hard to say that being guaranteed half a billion ISN'T a good deal for a player... But man - I think this is a GREAT deal for LA. There's a non-zero chance he might still be worth something at 39. This deal doesn't really even have an obvious dead weight backend bonuses on it.

Anything can happen, but I think this is an absolute bargain for LAA and I cannot imagine them thinking anything other than "QUICK SIGN IT!!!!"
   40. bfan Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5823752)
As for someone beating Trout to $500 mil, who's that going to be? As you said, Miggy will top out at $400. Pujols about $350. He's unlikely to make any more after that. Kershaw will be barely halfway there after age 33. Greinke will be at $317 when his deal is up age age 38. price will be at $271 when his deal is up at age 37. Scherzer at $239 at the same age. Chris Sale could get a Bryce Harper contract after this year and not clear $400. Strasburg can opt out after this year and get a Harper contract and not get there. Ditto Heyward. It won't be Stanton, $323 through age 38


Here are players named in this post: Trout; Cabrera; Pujols; Kershaw; Greinke; Price; Scherzer; Sale; Harper; Strasburg; Heyward; Stanton. One of those names sort of stands out to me, as different from the others; does it to other people?
   41. JAHV Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5823753)
Even though he's been replacement level over the past 3 seasons, Pujols has put up 53.8 bWAR since turning 27. I think the Angels will take that.


Of course, but I'm talking about the out years at ages 36-38 when Pujols has been replacement level. The fact that Trout will have spent his whole career with the Angels and given them somewhere between 100 and 150 wins will mean even three years at no value aren't unforgivable. He'll be a legend.
   42. SandyRiver Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:54 PM (#5823754)
How long before Trout buys The Weather Channel? Over-under of 7 days.

Nah. TWC jumped the shark years ago. Mike should line up some serious scientists and start his own.

(1) Betts. If he puts up two more years like 2018, and then goes on the FA market having earned ~$60m through 2020, there could be a bidding war.

And that's a big if. Mookie has put up 2 seasons similar to average Trout, though 2016 was probably too defense-heavy for full belief. When he's notched 4-5 total years of that type, then it's a better time to talk. Also, he started a couple years older than Trout. OTOH, slim sluggers like Willie and especially Hank, tend to age better than the huskier ones.
   43. Blastin Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5823755)
OTOH, slim sluggers like Willie and especially Hank, tend to age better than the huskier ones.


Is this true, aside from these data points? I am not doubting you, I wonder if someone has looked at this.
   44. DCA Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5823757)
Here are players named in this post: Trout; Cabrera; Pujols; Kershaw; Greinke; Price; Scherzer; Sale; Harper; Strasburg; Heyward; Stanton. One of those names sort of stands out to me, as different from the others; does it to other people?


Trout?

He's the best of the bunch. And the only one to play a premium defensive position.
   45. Rusty Priske Posted: March 19, 2019 at 12:59 PM (#5823758)
An underpay.

Good for Trout for committing to his team.
   46. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5823759)
Here are players named in this post: Trout; Cabrera; Pujols; Kershaw; Greinke; Price; Scherzer; Sale; Harper; Strasburg; Heyward; Stanton. One of those names sort of stands out to me, as different from the others; does it to other people?


yes, it does. I was merely listing players who have already made a ton of money, and either have a ton more guaranteed, or have the potential to make a lot more, however implausible.
   47. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5823760)
Is this true, aside from these data points? I am not doubting you, I wonder if someone has looked at this.


Bill James said it once.....
   48. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5823762)

This Mays guy was pretty good.


I have always thought of Trout as White Willie Mays.
   49. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:06 PM (#5823763)
OTOH, slim sluggers like Willie and especially Hank, tend to age better than the huskier ones.

Is this true, aside from these data points? I am not doubting you, I wonder if someone has looked at this.


Griffey started out as a slim slugger, but didn't age as well as he put on heft. Playing on turf for so many years probably didn't help. Bonds of course aged nicely after he put on some weight.
   50. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5823768)
OUR LONG REGIONAL NIGHTMARE IS OVER
   51. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5823772)
As a fan of baseball, this makes me happy.
   52. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5823773)
What a dumbass. He probably left a hundred million dollars on the table so he could keep playing for a franchise that’s put a playoff team around him once in his career. All he’d have to do is move an hour up I-5 in two years to cash out a half billion dollar contract.
   53. JAHV Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5823778)
Griffey started out as a slim slugger, but didn't age as well as he put on heft. Playing on turf for so many years probably didn't help. Bonds of course aged nicely after he put on some weight.


I'm not sure that the comparison is apt anyway, since Trout isn't that slim. He's built like a strong safety in football. He'd have to put on a bit of bulk to play linebacker, but not that much. Trout's a muscular dude.
   54. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5823779)
What a dumbass. He probably left a hundred million dollars on the table so he could keep playing for a franchise that’s put a playoff team around him once in his career. All he’d have to do is move an hour up I-5 in two years to cash out a half billion dollar contract.


Takes all kinds I guess. There's posters here who take bad teams to task for not signing high priced free agents, and posters who take high priced free agents to task for signing with bad teams. There's posters who take players to task for leaving their team to sign with the highest bidder, and posters who take players to task for signing extensions and not going for the most money.
   55. SoSH U at work Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5823780)

I'm not sure that the comparison is apt anyway, since Trout isn't that slim.


The original comment referring to slim sluggers was about Mookie, not Trout.
   56. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5823785)
I'm not sure that the comparison is apt anyway, since Trout isn't that slim. He's built like a strong safety in football. He'd have to put on a bit of bulk to play linebacker, but not that much. Trout's a muscular dude.


The 'slim slugger' reference was to Betts.

ETA:
Shoulda refreshed...
   57. JAHV Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5823787)
The original comment referring to slim sluggers was about Mookie, not Trout.


Sorry, I missed that. Thanks for the correction.
   58. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5823788)
I have always thought of Trout as White Willie Mays.


Their value numbers are comparable, certainly, but they got there in very different ways. Mays doesn't appear on Trout's Similarity Scores at all, not overall and not in the top 10 for any season Trout has played. Trout's most similar batters as of today are:

Frank Robinson (955.4) *
Ken Griffey Jr. (940.0) *
Mickey Mantle (935.5) *
Hank Aaron (909.7) *
Miguel Cabrera (896.6)
Orlando Cepeda (877.8) *
Mel Ott (877.3) *
Eddie Mathews (866.2) *
Andruw Jones (863.5)
Albert Pujols (858.8)

Note that only a couple of those guys aged well (Robinson and Aaron).
   59. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5823789)
slim sluggers like Willie and especially Hank, tend to age better than the huskier ones.
Slow slim sluggers' slopes are slipperier, though.
   60. Tin Angel Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5823790)
What a dumbass. He probably left a hundred million dollars on the table so he could keep playing for a franchise that’s put a playoff team around him once in his career. All he’d have to do is move an hour up I-5 in two years to cash out a half billion dollar contract.


I wouldn't put it this harshly...but as a Trout fan/non-Angels fan this kind of bums me out, unless the Angels can figure out how to put a competing team around him. From a selfish standpoint I'd rather watch the best player in decades be playing in the postseason every year instead of just watching random isolated highlights of his throughout the regular season.
   61. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5823792)


Where are you getting your numbers? BBREF has ARod at $441 mil.

edit: OK, BBREF has ARod at $399 mil on their career earnings leader board, but his player page has $441.


For some reason, the BBREF career earnings leaderboard doesn't count the last two years of A-Rod's contract ($21M per season for 2016-2017), even though the Yankees released him so they were still on the hook for his full salary for those years. In fact, he was released and retired in August 2016, so even if BB-Ref wanted to exclude salary paid after that, A-Rod should be at something like $414M, not $399M.
   62. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:29 PM (#5823798)
What a dumbass. He probably left a hundred million dollars on the table so he could keep playing for a franchise that’s put a playoff team around him once in his career. All he’d have to do is move an hour up I-5 in two years to cash out a half billion dollar contract.

Trout got a record-setting contract without ever having to go through free agency. All the injury risk has been transferred to the team. Pretty good deal, even if he might have done better by waiting. One bad slide, collision with a wall, HBP, slip in the shower, or traffic accident could have knocked tens of millions from his bargaining power.
   63. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5823801)
Just to add to 58, I see Trout as what Mickey Mantle should have been.
   64. DCA Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5823803)
Note that only a couple of those guys aged well (Robinson and Aaron).

Mantle and Ott aged very well too. They were done after their age 36 seasons (10 years after this comp list) but were elite all the way until the end.

Pujols and Cabrera each added a pair of MVPs after their age 27 season as part of 6 or 7 years of consecutive elite performance. Mathews also 7 elite seasons, but without the MVPs. That's not bad.
   65. eric Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:36 PM (#5823804)
Trout got a record-setting contract without ever having to go through free agency. All the injury risk has been transferred to the team. Pretty good deal, even if he might have done better by waiting. One bad slide, collision with a wall, HBP, slip in the shower, or traffic accident could have knocked tens of millions from his bargaining power.


Trout is definitely not a Boras client. I doubt it's coincidence that this new contract both closely follows and exceeds Harper's in total value, and barely exceeds Greinke's in AAV. Trout, not known for his intellect, and his agent, Craig Landis, otherwise not known for representing any big name players, both get a quick and easy "largest contract ever" while still leaving lots of money on the table. If it goes through as reported, this contract is a big win for the Angels.

Edit: looking more closely, Trout is apparently Craig Landis's *only* client. Landis previously represented Paul Konerko, JJ Hardy, Randy Winn, and a few others with similar name recognition.
   66. DCA Posted: March 19, 2019 at 02:36 PM (#5823805)
48/58/63

Trout is better, but I can definitely see him coming out of the FRob/Griffey mold. He's starting to comp well to young Bonds as well (took a while for young Bonds to hit this level).
   67. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:01 PM (#5823811)
Trout's most similar batters as of today are:

Frank Robinson (955.4) *
Ken Griffey Jr. (940.0) *
Mickey Mantle (935.5) *
Hank Aaron (909.7) *
Miguel Cabrera (896.6)
Orlando Cepeda (877.8) *
Mel Ott (877.3) *
Eddie Mathews (866.2) *
Andruw Jones (863.5)
Albert Pujols (858.8)

Note that only a couple of those guys aged well (Robinson and Aaron).


Sean really needs to update the similarity scores algorithm. Trout is nothing like Cepeda. They have vaguely similar batting averages, HRs, doubles, and games played, but that's about it. Trout has twice the triples, twice the SB (with fewer CS), almost 3X the walks, not to mention CF vs 1B. OPS+ 34 points higher.

The not aging well thing has been addressed. If Trout has the post 26 career of everyone on that list but Griffey, Cepeda and Jones, the Angels will be happy. I think only Cabrera has less than 50 WAR, and he can still get there.
   68. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5823813)
Joe Sheehan @joe_sheehan 3h3 hours ago

Feel bad for Kenny Williams, who was all set to offer 8/190 to Trout in two years.


Oh, how I laughed.
   69. Rally Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5823817)
By 2030 there probably will be someone in MLB better than Mike Trout. Of course Mike Trout will be 38 years old then.


Reminds me of back in high school when I was a better basketball player than Lebron James. Of course Lebron was 5 years old when I graduated. Plus he totally would have kicked my butt by the age of 6.
   70. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5823818)
Mantle and Ott aged very well too. They were done after their age 36 seasons


By "aged well", I meant how they did after the age of 35. I think that's the common usage, but maybe I misunderstood.

Sean really needs to update the similarity scores algorithm.


I've made that point here several times, to the point that I feel like I'm nagging. I'm happy to have someone else bring it up.

If Trout has the post 26 career of everyone on that list but Griffey, Cepeda and Jones, the Angels will be happy.


Agreed. The contract is a good one for the Angels absent some terrible accident. The "aging well" issue only really affects Trout's exact placement among the 10 or 20 best players of all time.

   71. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:30 PM (#5823822)
#67, isn't that list basically just guys who were stars at age 20 (or in Cabrera's and Pujols' case, age 21). Mays missed most of ages 21-22 to military service, which I assume is why he doesn't appear on that list.
   72. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5823829)
That's quite possible, but Mays was back for his age 23 season, and yet he isn't among Trout's 10 "most similar" in any season from 23-26.
   73. Obo Posted: March 19, 2019 at 03:55 PM (#5823832)
...you can't pay too much for a good pair of shoes.
   74. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5823837)
That's quite possible, but Mays was back for his age 23 season, and yet he isn't among Trout's 10 "most similar" in any season from 23-26.


but he missed his age 21 and 22 seasons, so, he would basically have to make up 2-3 seasons worth of production to get into Trout's 10 most similar by age 23, 24, 25, 26. It is not the 10 most similar players at age-26, but, thru age 26.
   75. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:06 PM (#5823838)
That's quite possible, but Mays was back for his age 23 season, and yet he isn't among Trout's 10 "most similar" in any season from 23-26.


Because it's not most similar at that age season, but most similar career through that age season. Case in point, Griffey is one of Trout's most similar players through age 25, but their age 25 seasons are nothing alike. Trout hit 16 more HR, 18 more doubles, stole 18 more bases, played 42 more games, batted 50 points higher, and OPSd 200 points higher.

edit: Just missed.
   76. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5823841)
Ah. I thought that column was for the individual season. My bad.
   77. SandyRiver Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5823844)
Just to add to 58, I see Trout as what Mickey Mantle should have been.

And Trout already has 3 major advantages over Mantle:
1. His male relatives didn't all die before reaching 40 due to working in the mines.
2. He didn't have osteomyelitis, a form of bone cancer, before reaching HS age.
3. He didn't suffer a major knee injury early in his career. Mantle stated that, after that injury, he was in pain every time he stepped onto the field.
I think all of these contributed to Mick's "eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die" attitude and actions.
48/58/63

Trout is better

Maybe. His career OPS+ is 175 while Mantle's was 172. However, after Mantle's age-32 season (1964) it was 178. (Was a good-not-great 149 his final 4 seasons.) I see Trout as the better fielder, Mantle as the better hitter, and near equality in baserunning when considering team philosophy. (Mantle's Yanks were not into SB.) In any case, we're comparing two players putting up inner circle Hall numbers which look pretty similar when compared to their peers. Going deeper, like comparing respective league strengths, would seem to help Trout's case, but he's yet to post a season quite like Mantle's 56 and 57. That said, Trout appears to be taking better care of himself than did Mantle (not a high threshold) and may well end up with the better career. (Changed "bar" the "threshold" to avoid the double entendre.)
   78. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5823851)
That's a good summary.
   79. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5823853)
That's quite possible, but Mays was back for his age 23 season, and yet he isn't among Trout's 10 "most similar" in any season from 23-26.


Mays is about to start an 8-year, 80 WAR run from age 27-34. If Trout comes anywhere close to that he will have been criminally underpaid. :-)
   80. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5823855)
but he missed his age 21 and 22 seasons, so, he would basically have to make up 2-3 seasons worth of production to get into Trout's 10 most similar by age 23, 24, 25, 26.


Through age 26, Mays is 300 games, 285 hits, and 53 HR behind Trout. If Trout keeps up his pace, it will take Willie a while to catch up, but he should start appearing on his age based most similar lists sooner as lesser players like Cepeda and Jones drop off.
   81. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: March 19, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5823862)
Also, 331 bb, 262 runs, 68sb, 139 rbi behind Trout. Hell, even with way more attempts, Trout has fewer CS. Willie goes crazy though from 27-34, averaging around 121r, 111rbi, 40hr per season, while only missing a few games per year.
   82. DL from MN Posted: March 19, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5823869)
Trout is apparently Craig Landis's *only* client.


Craig Landis is 60 and he is getting a commission on the largest contract in MLB history. I don't think he needs any more clients.
   83. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: March 19, 2019 at 05:20 PM (#5823874)
Sean really needs to update the similarity scores algorithm.

It's not Sean's to update. Similarity Scores are one of those "fun stats" Bill James was churning out in the 1980's like Game Score, Power/Speed Number, etc, as Sean elaborates.
Similarity scores are not our concept. Bill James introduced them in the mid-1980s, and we lifted his methodology from his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.
   84. TDF, trained monkey Posted: March 19, 2019 at 05:48 PM (#5823876)
Trout is nothing like Cepeda.
You'd be surprised.
They have vaguely similar batting averages
2 points of BA in 1000+ games is "vaguely similar"???
HRs
They differ by 18, or just over 2 per season. That's pretty similar.
doubles
One double in 1000+ games is "vaguely similar"???
and games played
Two games played thru age-26 is "vaguely similar"???
Trout has twice the triples
Neither have enough 3B to really move the needle in the score - the difference is worth only 5.5 points.
twice the SB
Similar to 3B, worth just under 5 points.
(with fewer CS)
Not part of the equation.
almost 3X the walks
That actually matters - almost 18 points.
not to mention CF vs 1B
OF are grouped together. Worth 36 points.
OPS+ 34 points higher
Not part of the equation.

   85. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2019 at 05:51 PM (#5823877)
On why it's "replacing" the current 2-year, per Cot's there is a signing bonus, but no details yet. If it's a large bonus, then is much behooves Trout that this is not an extension.

And yeah, looks like the Angels got a bargain here. Betts might top this in AAV; not out of the question that Lindor or maybe Correa (if he ever gets fully healthy) could top it as well.

Quick NPV, ignoring the niceties, puts it around $320 (5%) to $360 (3%) so about 40-45 WAR. This looks like a massive bargain. The guy is really risk-averse but to roughly quote Mike Trout "when somebody offers you $30 M a year, it's hard to say no."

On "aging well" -- I suppose it means different things at different points in the career. Votto is about to turn 35 and sure, for him, the question is whether he's got 0, 1, 2 or 3 elite years left. But for a guy like Trout or for most of these long-term contracts, "aging well" is (give or take) about ages 32-36. In Trout's case I suppose there's also the question of super-inner-circle, inner-circle or "geez there have been a lot of great OFs" HoF status which is also often about how a player does after 35.

A starting OF (in the Walt HoF) of Bonds, Mays, Ruth is tough to crack. The second-string of Williams, Cobb/Mantle, Aaron isn't too shabby. The Musial, Cobb/Mantle, FRobinson tier had its moments.

On Mookie and "slim sluggers" and "aging" ... let's not get carried away yet. His career OPS+ is "just" 134. He's 13 points of OPS+ and 79 HR behind Griffey through age 25 ... or 13 points of OPS+ and 22 HRs behind Reggie through 25 in about the same PT. As I've said before, anybody who wants to put Mookie in elite circles is not allowed to question Rfield numbers for any other player for the rest of his career. :-) I see Mookie as more the modern equivalent of Clemente** except a version who was already Clemente at 22.

Also while obviously listed heights have a bit of chicanery (not nearly as much as weight), Mookie's listed at 5-9 so unless he's the second Mel Ott, I'm not sure we can really consider him a "slugger." He indeed might get to 500+ (Murray, Beltre, Manny Ramirez, Frank Thomas has similar totals for ages 22-25) but it's more likely to be of the slow, steady variety (later Beltre and Murray are also decent comps for the type of hitter he is). In that groupp you've also got Brunansky, Willie Horton, Rolen, Santo, Ripken, Tex. One of those HR comps is Grady Sizemore and Mookie is a good bit like Grady with better defense. (He's currently tied for 48th in HR ages 22-25.)

All of which is a great, great player of course, not dissing Mookie. But it's not "slugger" great, it's Clemente/Beltre great but with a much better start.

** Nobody hits 329 anymore as Clemente did from 1960-72 while everybody hits 25-30 HRs a year now. Clemente 1960-72: 329/373/503/144 OPS+; Mookie 22-25: 304/370/524/134 OPS+. Clemente 84 WAR (about 7/650), +10 Rtot per year; Mookie about 8 WAR/650, +12 Rtot per year (Rtot likes him much less than DRS, for Clemente we only have Rtot so that's the fairer comparison).
   86. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 05:54 PM (#5823879)
Not part of the equation.


I wasn't arguing the score wasn't calculated correctly given the formula. I was saying they aren't really similar players. I understand the formula. I understand Bill James created it. I understand it's original intent was for it to be a fun, throw away stat. I'm just saying I wish Sean would come up with something more relevant.
   87. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 06:02 PM (#5823881)
If Sean can't change that exact formula because it's Bill's, then he should take it out. It's not all that useful as is. Replace it with a better design and call it by some snappy (and proprietary) name.
   88. cardsfanboy Posted: March 19, 2019 at 06:06 PM (#5823882)
I'm just saying I wish Sean would come up with something more relevant.


Exactly, the similarity score really does need an update with the amount of data we have discovered since the original similarity scores were created, and a different emphasis on certain tools.

I don't think it's a completely useless stat, but each year we keep finding more and more players who aren't really similar beyond a few superficial numbers. The lack of an era adjustment is a big part of that, and a lack of an inclusion of war/waa is another start, add in that there isn't really a method to evaluate defense in it other than by position, and you are looking at often players who are minimally similar. Still Trout has 9 hofers on his most similar through age 26 list(yes I'm including Pujols as a hofer, it would be dumb not to) and Andruw Jones... At the same time he's hitting pretty similar to one of the best offensive first baseman of all time (Albert) while playing centerfield at an above average level, the true similarities really don't exist other than Mantle and maybe Mays. (I guess Cobb and Griffey might also meet it in some ways)
   89. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2019 at 06:21 PM (#5823884)
Well, the other way they are misused is that people focus only on the ordinal ranking and not the scores. As James wrote when he first introduced the stat in one of the 80's Abstracts, great players tend to be unique and have few if any similar players. Take Cepeda, Trout's 6th most similar player with a score of 877. Now look at a more ordinary player. Say Mark Trumbo. Trumbo's 6th most similar player is Tony Clark with a score of 921. Clark is a lot more relevant to Trumbo than Cepeda is to Trout.
   90. cardsfanboy Posted: March 19, 2019 at 06:27 PM (#5823885)
Well, the other way they are misused is that people focus only on the ordinal ranking and not the scores. As James wrote when he first introduced the stat in one of the 80's Abstracts, great players tend to be unique and have few if any similar players. Take Cepeda, Trout's 6th most similar player with a score of 877. Now look at a more ordinary player. Say Mark Trumbo. Trumbo's 6th most similar player is Tony Clark with a score of 921. Clark is a lot more relevant to Trumbo than Cepeda is to Trout.


I thought about mentioning that, but I couldn't remember the range of where it becomes 'less' unique, I mean he still has several players that I don't think are too far off him in the score... while others might argue that the gap is huge, but even Cabrera at 896 feels fairly close to him... especially when you realize that the real big difference in their numbers is positional based and speed based, and the fact that the stat is pretty much offense only with a positional adjustment. If you see a guy playing shortstop or center or even second, and he's getting similarity scores with corner hitters, it's a pretty good indication he'll probably age better than the corner hitters he's being compared to.
   91. Baldrick Posted: March 19, 2019 at 06:31 PM (#5823887)
Not part of the equation.

Which is why he said the equation should be changed.
   92. Mefisto Posted: March 19, 2019 at 07:33 PM (#5823893)
I think that running the batting numbers off of neutralized stats would go a long way towards improving the Sim Scores. Maybe adjust for rBat. Then you need to account for defensive position. My suggestion would be to use the positional adjustments and count each as 1 point (at least). Then factor in dWAR.

Something like this, anyway.
   93. cardsfanboy Posted: March 19, 2019 at 07:39 PM (#5823897)
I would also create a 'tier' for defensive quality at the position. Where the difference in tier has an adjustment, similar, but lesser than the positional adjustment.

A better defender is going to stick around longer relative to a lesser defender producing the same stats at the same position.
   94. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: March 19, 2019 at 08:38 PM (#5823906)
Going to be awfully hard for any future free agent to make more than $36M a season. The negotiations will include a "Do you think you're better than Mike Trout?" question.

Probably right. For years and years, the top average salary kept going up and up in part, I think, because a big contract would be given to a player past his prime (and maybe not really as good as commonly perceived). Within a year or two, a new free agent would come along with an easy claim that he was a better player than the previous recordholder, who was clearly declining. When A-Rod signed for $25M/year at age 25, obviously set to remain among the best players in MLB for years to come, I thought it might set an artificial cap on individual salaries. And for many years, it did.
   95. Khrushin it bro Posted: March 19, 2019 at 09:26 PM (#5823910)
Trumbo's 6th most similar player is Tony Clark with a score of 921


Tony Clark is the 6th best ever executive director of the MLBPA too.
   96. bunyon Posted: March 19, 2019 at 09:44 PM (#5823912)
It's risk averse on Trout's part but I can definitely imagine taking that route. Free agency looks like it sucks and the grass is always greener. If he's happy with the Angels, he may not want to risk going elsewhere and hating it. I mean, if, a year from now, Harper hates Philly, what does he do? And there is no way to know how you'll like working for an organization until you work for them. If you're happy with your current job and you're happy with your salary, you don't leave.

Anyway, I also wonder what effect sharing a locker room with Pujols has. Pujols made a lot more money by moving to LA. Is he happier? More respected? I have no idea but could imagine that he is not and I have to think the two of them have discussed it.

I think it's good for baseball and certainly good for LA. But, damn, put a real team around him already.
   97. eric Posted: March 19, 2019 at 09:56 PM (#5823914)
On Mookie and "slim sluggers" and "aging" ... let's not get carried away yet. His career OPS+ is "just" 134.


Barry Bonds through the same age: 133. While it's far more likely Mookie will regress, although remain a great player, it's also possible he just found his new level.

When A-Rod signed for $25M/year at age 25, obviously set to remain among the best players in MLB for years to come, I thought it might set an artificial cap on individual salaries. And for many years, it did.


A-rod's contract blew so far past any other contract at the time it was ridiculous. Trout would have had to sign for nearly $700 million for his contract to have the same effect that A-rod's had--Alex's total more than doubled the previous record and his AAV was nearly 70% higher. That's why it took so long for others to catch up.

Trout has only squeaked past the previous records, relatively speaking. I would guess someone beats his AAV in the next few years, although it would very likely be for less years. Heck, if the rumors are correct, Harper turned down a contract from the Dodgers at over $40MM AAV.

   98. JRVJ Posted: March 19, 2019 at 10:08 PM (#5823915)
Looks like Bregman and the Astros have reached a 6 year, $100MM agreement.


@Ken_Rosenthal

Bregman deal with #Astros, as reported by @MarkBermanFox26, would cover this season, all three arbitration years and two free-agent years. Would be eligible to hit open market entering age 30 season.
   99. Meatwad Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:00 PM (#5823918)
5 years doesnt supersceed this years deal. Per MLBTR.
   100. Shredder Posted: March 19, 2019 at 11:10 PM (#5823920)
I think it's good for baseball and certainly good for LA. But, damn, put a real team around him already.
Well, it wasn't that long ago they had a team that finished with the best record in baseball. They gave up a lot of future value trying to put a good team around him, they just did a terrible job of it. Say all you want about the Hamilton and Wilson deals, but you can't say they weren't trying to make the team better.

They can't keep a pitcher healthy at the moment. The Upton deal was a good one, and the brought in Ohtani. They made moves that looked good last year, just by trying to improve a couple positions from awful to around average, but then Cozart got hurt and Kinsler sucked. They're not going be great overnight, but they're on the right track.
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