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Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Angels’ Shohei Ohtani Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award

Shohei Ohtani didn’t show anything during spring training. And when he finally got it going for the Los Angeles Angels during the regular-season, the two-way sensation short-circuited, suffering a Grade 3 tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow.

Despite it all, Ohtani became the first player since Babe Ruth in 1919 to pitch at least 50 innings and hit 15 home runs in the same season.

For that alone, Ohtani was the well-deserved runaway winner of the Rookie of the Year Award in the American League, now named after the legendary Jackie Robinson.

QLE Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:46 AM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: rookie of the year, shohei ohtani

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   1. Man o' Schwar Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5786435)
Poking around the internet reading comments on this, Yankee fans are very salty about this result. Between this and Judge losing to Altuve last year, this is pretty much confirmation of the world's anti-Yankee bias.
   2. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5786446)
[1] It makes sense why they're upset. They wanted Gary Sanchez to win in '16 when he seemed to be (clearly) the best rookie, but he was penalized for not playing the full season. Then, in '18, Andujar loses to a guy who does not play a full season.
   3. McCoy Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:53 AM (#5786448)
So Andujar is the guy they thought should win the RoY award? Meh, that would have made for a perfectly forgettable winner. Might as well give it to Ben Grieve again.
   4. PreservedFish Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5786452)
Fans of every other team: "Of course Ohtani deserved it, guy's a ####### phenomenon."
   5. PreservedFish Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5786453)
By the way, here's the way to totally eviscerate the argument: in #2

Andujar had 600 PAs.
Ohtani had 367 PAs ... and 211 BFs! ... for a total of 578.
They got essentially the same amount of playing time.

Of course if you include Andujar's time on defense, you have to concede that he overall had more opportunities to impact the game, but if you're an Andujar booster, the less said about his defense the better.
   6. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5786455)
Andujar's numbers were better than I thought, but Ohtani still beat him by about .6 WAR, which ain't nothing. Add the fact that he was a plus on the mound (till the injury) AND as a DH?

Expecting any other result is silly.
   7. Blastin Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5786457)
As a Yankee fan... Ohtani was the best.
   8. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5786458)

Looks to me like they picked the right guy in both 2016 and 2018. There's a difference between a rookie who plays 104 games (including 10 pitching starts) and one who plays 53. And it's not like the writers are being inconsistent -- Fulmer, who won in 2016, didn't play the complete season in the majors either.
   9. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5786460)

Andujar's numbers were better than I thought, but Ohtani still beat him by about .6 WAR, which ain't nothing. Add the fact that he was a plus on the mound (till the injury) AND as a DH?

Ohtani beat him by 1.7 WAR when you include his pitching value.
   10. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5786471)
Ohtani also has a very significant Awesomeness Quotient bonus. You'd have to beat his other numbers by a fair bit before I'd be willing to give the award to someone else.
   11. BrianBrianson Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5786476)
Reasonable.

And I think one does have to give rookies a bit of playing-time forgiveness and not do a straight WAR comparison.

And I think one does have to be batshit insane not to want Ohtani to win this award.
   12. sotapop Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5786478)
I'm a Rays fan, but wow, this guy (from the BBWAA vote breakdown) is the definition of a "homer" vote.


Dick Scanlon - Lakeland Ledger - TB - 1st) Andújar 2nd) Wendle 3rd) Yarbrough

blah blah take children and/or voting privilege away
   13. RickA. Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5786482)
Also a Yankees fan, and I agree that Ohtani should have won it.
   14. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:40 AM (#5786483)
Dick Scanlon - Lakeland Ledger - TB - 1st) Andújar 2nd) Wendle 3rd) Yarbrough


Actually, wow - Wendle posted 4.3 WAR and 2.4 WAA. 300/354/435 (118 OPS+) with what also appears to be plus defense. I'm actually more shocked he's still rookie eligible... I remember him from one of Beane's "him?" trades.

If the award was "most valuable rookie" - it might very be Wendle!

Yarbrough is... less of an inspired choice.
   15. Blastin Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5786487)
Wendle is also 28, so I'm sorta like... I think that's his best.
   16. puck Posted: November 13, 2018 at 10:46 AM (#5786488)
And I think one does have to be batshit insane not to want Ohtani to win this award.


I am less than enthused about giving RoY to veterans of the Japanese league. Sure they're eligible but they don't seem like rookies the same way. The Japanese league is quite good.

I'd have chosen Torres over Andujar anyway.
   17. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5786529)

I am less than enthused about giving RoY to veterans of the Japanese league. Sure they're eligible but they don't seem like rookies the same way. The Japanese league is quite good.

I could see this objection to someone like Nomo or Ichiro winning the ROY award, but Ohtani is only 23 (the same age as Andujar). Hard to justify not giving it to him due to his level of experience.
   18. Red Voodooin Posted: November 13, 2018 at 11:40 AM (#5786538)
I am less than enthused about giving RoY to veterans of the Japanese league. Sure they're eligible but they don't seem like rookies the same way. The Japanese league is quite good.


Is the Japanese league markedly better than AAA?
   19. BDC Posted: November 13, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5786541)
Six of the first seven Rookies of the Year from the NL had Negro League experience, a couple of them (Sam Jethroe and Joe Black) quite substantial. Jethroe was 33 when he won.

Not that that precedent needs to be followed anymore, necessarily, but it's interesting that the award originated right at a juncture when the best rookies had been high-level professional stars before coming to MLB.
   20. villageidiom Posted: November 13, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5786543)
Poking around the internet reading comments on this, Yankee fans are very salty about this result.
You might be surprised to learn this, but there are many Yankees fans who firmly believe that the better team did not win the AL East this year.
   21. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5786545)
Meh, Best First Year in the American Major Leagues Otherwise Known as Major League Baseball doesn't quite have the same ring to it.
   22. sotapop Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:00 PM (#5786558)
If the award was "most valuable rookie" - it might very be Wendle!

Zonk - Yeah, he looked terrific this year every time I saw him from spring through September. (And as Blastin said, it's probably his peak.)

Plus, added value for playing multiple positions. (He's their new Zobrist.) But even for me it's hard to put him ahead of a guy who put up a .527 SLG with 27 HR, at a premium position no less. And then combined with that Yarborough vote...
   23. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5786565)
Poking around the internet reading comments on this, Yankee fans are very salty about this result. Between this and Judge losing to Altuve last year, this is pretty much confirmation of the world's anti-Yankee bias.

I would've complained only if Andujar's and Torres' defense hadn't been so horrific.
   24. Blastin Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5786567)
I think Torres will improve. Andujar is just... clumsy.
   25. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:08 PM (#5786569)
Zonk - Yeah, he looked terrific this year every time I saw him from spring through September. (And as Blastin said, it's probably his peak.)

Plus, added value for playing multiple positions. (He's their new Zobrist.) But even for me it's hard to put him ahead of a guy who put up a .527 SLG with 27 HR, at a premium position no less. And then combined with that Yarborough vote...


I suppose that's the big question on RoY.... Is it "most valuable" qualifying rookie? Best future projection rookie based on his first year? Most famous rookie? Probably some combination of all three.

Honestly, if I had a vote? I'm not sure exactly how I would have voted... If I hadn't just looked up Wendle - I suspect I'd have gone Ohtani-Andujar-???? But - if I did have a vote - I would have looked it all up before voting (and I'm an NL guy, so forgive some level of AL ignorance).

Now?

Yeesh... Probably Ohtani-Wendle-Andujar.... But it would be close - and there's a good chance that I just flip a coin on the top two spots.
   26. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5786572)
You might be surprised to learn this, but there are many Yankees fans who firmly believe that the better team did not win the AL East this year.

Don't conflate Yankees fans with callers to WFAN. The Yankees had plenty of opportunities to prove they were the best, and blew them all one after the other.

   27. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5786575)
I think Torres will improve. Andujar is just... clumsy.

He reminds this (very) old time Yankees fan of the late Hector Lopez. I still haven't gotten over this horrific memory.
   28. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5786576)
So - rank and divine the proportions that should influence a RoY vote:

1) Pure player value (as measured via whatever metric you prefer)
2) Fame - regardless of value, did the rookie do something or have a lot of "big" moments
3) Projection - how likely is this RoY to add more hardware during his career?


My gut says something like 50% - 35% - 15%.
   29. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5786580)
Ohtani : 114 games

Acuna : 111 games
   30. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5786581)
So - rank and divine the proportions that should influence a RoY vote:

1) Pure player value (as measured via whatever metric you prefer)
2) Fame - regardless of value, did the rookie do something or have a lot of "big" moments
3) Projection - how likely is this RoY to add more hardware during his career?

My gut says something like 50% - 35% - 15%.


100% - 0% - 0%. But then I include "big" moments in the player value category.
   31. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:25 PM (#5786587)
100% - 0% - 0%. But then I include "big" moments in the player value category.


Well, in that case - it's Wendle (at least using bWAR and bWAA).
   32. PreservedFish Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:28 PM (#5786589)
I'm probably at 70/20/10, but recognizing that "fame" and "projection" are often inextricable, it becomes a fairly weighty item.
   33. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5786595)
Brad Keller didn’t receive a single ROY vote?

This is an outrage!
I am outraged!
   34. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5786603)
I'm probably at 70/20/10, but recognizing that "fame" and "projection" are often inextricable, it becomes a fairly weighty item.


IDK... I'm not at all saying David Bote should get any real consideration in the NL - but I do think there's a pretty big gap between his game (kid had a knack for key late inning HRs) and his projection (I expect him to have a nice 6-7 year utility career).
   35. sotapop Posted: November 13, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5786629)
So - rank and divine the proportions that should influence a RoY vote:

1) Pure player value (as measured via whatever metric you prefer)


and that's pretty much what's happening here... they're comparing Ohtani vs. Andujar vs. Wendle, not each Wendle vs. all other 2B, Andujar vs. all other 3B, etc. (and so Ohtani has no comps, or something).
Put their slash lines or traditional stats next to each other, and this is the outcome you'd expect. That said, Zonk, you've got me convinced that it's OK to vote for the guy from my local team...
   36. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5786679)

So - rank and divine the proportions that should influence a RoY vote:

1) Pure player value (as measured via whatever metric you prefer)
2) Fame - regardless of value, did the rookie do something or have a lot of "big" moments
3) Projection - how likely is this RoY to add more hardware during his career?
75/0/25. Or something like that.
   37. asinwreck Posted: November 13, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5786685)
Yankees fans should be happy that the Babe Ruthiest rookie got the award.
   38. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 13, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5786708)
Fulmer, who won in 2016, didn't play the complete season in the majors either.


For a second, I thought this was about Blue Jays bicep legend Brad Fullmer.
   39. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5786726)
I'm rather surprised that the 'fame' component seems to be getting no love.

I mean, I'm not advocating for some September callup who mashes a dozen HRs... I'm just saying - imagine if Ohtani had been a bit less of a hitter and a pitcher, maybe being within a few 10ths of a win or so of Andujar (or Wendle!).

I'd be willing to give him some two-way "fame" bonus points... Or hell - if the Rays had had a really bonkers September, somehow managed to get past the Yanks or A's for the WC - and Wendle had been particularly hot.

I was probably too glib assigning my own proportions - though, I do think "projection" ought to be last... Maybe it's more like 60-25-15, IDK.

Just feels like there's probably some room in the RoY for "fame" - even if that might too often mean rookies from the usual suspects get a leg up.
   40. Rally Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5786820)
If fame is what you're looking for, I'm calling the 2019 NL ROY right now for Tim Tebow.
   41. BrianBrianson Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:45 PM (#5786832)
Fame isn't exactly right, but rate stats have to be given a lot of weight. I'd rather 81 games of awesome than 162 games of mediocrity for RotY. Penalise MVPs or Cys for not playing, but not rookies.
   42. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5786842)
I'm rather surprised that the 'fame' component seems to be getting no love.


I'm surprised that anyone would think that there is any reason to give it consideration. Note: what Ohtani is doing might be 'famous' but more important it's valuable.... A clutch homerun or a guy having a 4 homerun game as a rookie is not really anything to get too excited about other than it was a good day, you don't give out seasonal awards for that.


Ohtani clearly wins this because he was valuable and he was a rookie.
In regards to the question about who should be rookie of the year and how you rate it... I go with 70% value, 20% playing time 10% other... I have a hard time considering anyone for a seasonal award who doesn't have at least 400 pa or at least 300(depending on the quality of the competition...I had a real hard time going with Ryan Howard over Willy Taveras even though he was the much better candidate because of the 312 pa vs 592 pa thing...and I think if I had a vote today for those two it would still be a toss up, even knowing how their careers ended up)
   43. Zonk is One Individual Posted: November 13, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5786882)
OK - well, don't blame the concept on my poor branding... maybe "other" is a better way to put it.

I just chose fame as a sort of conglomeration of "did something cool and unusual" + (wholly unfair) "played for the right media market" + "had some big moments" + "counting stats gloss not really supported by the advanced metrics".


Now break down those proportions within the "other" 10% :-)
   44. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 13, 2018 at 06:15 PM (#5786902)


Fame isn't exactly right, but rate stats have to be given a lot of weight. I'd rather 81 games of awesome than 162 games of mediocrity for RotY. Penalise MVPs or Cys for not playing, but not rookies.


I dunno, I think 81 games of awesome can be enough if we don't think it's just a small sample size illusion. But looking back, I'm fine with the fact that Kevin Maas didn't win the AL ROY in 1990 (although in retrospect, Kevin Appier probably should have won it over Sandy Alomar, Jr.). And frankly, if people were willing to vote for Maas and his 150 OPS+ in 79 games they probably should have thrown some votes to Frank Thomas for his 177 OPS+ in 60 games.
   45. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2018 at 08:06 PM (#5786991)
I dunno, I think 81 games of awesome can be enough


Maybe, but if you have a guy who played 150 games vs a guy who played 80 games and you want to argue for the guy who had 80 games, you better be able to show that the guy with 150 games didn't have an 50 game stretch roughly equivalent to the guy who had only 80 games.
   46. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5787035)
I'm rather surprised that the 'fame' component seems to be getting no love.

I've always thought that "fame" could be defended as a HoF tiebreaker,** but I can't see where it should apply to single season awards, unless it just means a series of spectacular September performances that pushes the player's team over the finish line. Say (hypothetically) if Ohtani had trailed Andujar after 162 games, but then pitched a complete game shutout and hit 3 home runs in an AL West tiebreaker, at that point I'd say just give it to him.

** Dizzy Dean, etc., though there really aren't too many other etceteras out there.
   47. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:52 PM (#5787039)
I've always thought that "fame" could be defended as a HoF tiebreaker,** but I can't see where it should apply to single season awards,


Is "all-star" considered a "single season award"? I feel like if two players have similar first halves of a season that I'd choose the more famous player as a tie-breaker for the all-star game nod.
   48. cardsfanboy Posted: November 13, 2018 at 09:54 PM (#5787041)

Is "all-star" considered a "single season award"? I feel like if two players have similar first halves of a season that I'd choose the more famous player as a tie-breaker for the all-star game nod.


I think of it as a single season award, which is why first half of the season is only about 50% of the determining factor in my vote. (with roughly 20% being second half of last season, 10% last season in it's entirety and 20% career)

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