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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Sunday, September 09, 2007
The Milwaukee Brewers became only the third team in major league history to open a game with three straight home runs when Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy and Ryan Braun connected Sunday off Cincinnati’s Phil Dumatrait.
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Braun also homered in the second for a 7-1 lead, giving him 30 homers this season.
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San Diego’s Marvell Wynne, Tony Gwynn and John Kruk became the first trio to open a game with consecutive home runs, on April 13, 1987, off of Roger Mason in a 13-6 loss to San Francisco at San Diego.
Atlanta’s Rafael Furcal, Mark DeRosa and Gary Sheffield hit consecutive home runs off of the Reds’ Jeff Austin to start a 15-3 win at Cincinnati on May 28, 2003.
Dumatrait’s line: 0 IP, 5H, 4R, 3HR, 12 pitches (7 strikes: 3 HR, 2 singles, a foul ball, and a called strike)
NTNgod
Posted: September 09, 2007 at 09:43 PM | 16 comment(s)
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1. Halofan Posted: September 09, 2007 at 09:50 PM (#2517797)Until Ned Yost gets that extension for a job well done!
To nitpick, the Brewers had been in first place (a tie) for a few days now... ever since the Cubs did the sort of thing that NL Central leaders have been doing all season - namely, cough up a 2.5 game lead in a couple of days.
For historical comparison:
Roger Mason's line:
2.2 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 3 HR
Jeff Austin's line:
0.2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 4 HR
You may be amused to know that I have to avoid following the games "live" due to the impact it has on my blood pressure. I spent today at the Sheep and Wool Festival in Jefferson, WI.
Just thought you would get a chuckle out of that turn in events.
And yes, since I have stopped following the games while in action my blood pressure has returned to normal.
Correct, Ned Yost is trying to kill me....................
Having them average 8 runs a game in September doesn't hurt either...
(And one Mr. Weeks is about a year removed from his surgery now, and while his season's BA is still ugly, his OBP has surged all the way up to .372)
I mentioned in the Lounge that despite everything he has scored 68 runs on 81 base hits. That's a Gary Redus/Rickey Henderson type ratio. If he could ever just stay healthy for a full season. Which I think entails not getting hit by pitches quite so much.
Have you noticed that he is drawing walks but the HBP thing has subsided? I wonder if he has realized the risk he is placing on his career by constantly getting nicked up?
The season HR totals for those three was 2, 7, and 20. What are the odds they would all three homer in the same game, let alone consecutively in the first inning?
Weeks, Hardy, and Braun coming into the game were 7, 23, and 28, and Furcal, DeRosa, and Sheffield were 15, 6, and 39.
Well, scratching some numbers on a pad of paper, I have the odds of all three hitting a HR in the same inning as about 1-in-15000.
That's based on the idea that Wynne is the key member, only getting 2 HR in 213 PA. So therefore, the other two guys would only get 213 PA each to match him, which means that Gwynn would hit about 2HR in that many PA, and Kruk would hit about 8HR.
So I calculated 1/[(2/213 * 2/213 * 8/213)*2] (the last number because they could do it on Wynne's 1st OR 2nd HR).
That comes out to about 15000, so 1-in-15000.
I'm sure someone else will show the error in my ways and calculate it correctly.
That calculation seems far too high. It is for the odds of them hitting 3 consecutive HR, not 3 consecutive HR in an inning, let alone the first inning. In any season, there are 4860 (or less, depending on the year) team first innings. If the odds for a trio including 2 such low HR guys hitting 3 in a row to be so high, it probably would have occured more often.
For example, I figure the odds of the 1996 Orioles doing it at 1 in 683, or once every 4 years, given the HR propensity of their top 3.
I knew I should have picked him up when I had the chance, but I thought "Noooo, every time I pick up a prospect before their debut, they always suck and get sent back down the next week." D'oh!
So aside from the unlikely 3 hr's already mentioned there were 4 more hr's, by Will Clark, Jeff LEonard, Robby Thompson and Bob Melvin. Being that the season was just a week old for 5 of the players to hit HR's it was their first of the year. Will Clark's was his 2nd of the year, but for Bob Melvin it was his third, and the next day he would hit his fourth, leaving him bating .381/.409/.952 halfway through april...so he got a lot of playing time that year...and from tax day on he hit .182/.235/.311....ouch, can we say Chris Shelton?
And I traded him for Bob Wickman a couple of months back. That's what I get for reading BTF...
How many teams with a one-game lead on September 10 have wound up in first place? ;-)
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