White Sox: see post #105 above.
Jays: Aside from the issues with Burnett, Hillenbrand, and Thomas, didn't their hot-headed manager get in a physical fight with Ted Lilly? Also Ricciardi, like certain members of the White Sox organization, has made a few questionable public comments over the last few years.

JPWF posted Carps' MLE in another thread.

BPro have him at an untranslated EQA of 331, a regular translated EQA of 298, and an age adjusted translated EQA of 314.

I agree with platooning Delgado though. That needs to happen.

Aside from the issues with Burnett, Hillenbrand, and Thomas, didn't their hot-headed manager get in a physical fight with Ted Lilly?

I'm still not entirely sure what happened with Lilly, but I agree that there was most likely something there.

Also Ricciardi, like certain members of the White Sox organization, has made a few questionable public comments over the last few years.

Can you expand further on this? The only one that doesn't relate to the players listed above that I remember was the Gil Meche one.

I agree with platooning Delgado though. That needs to happen.

and....

Trot can't hit LHPs to save himself (.224/.286/.286 in 2007, .204/.336/.312 in 2006 and .214/.308/.322 for his CAREER)
Endy is .290/.327/.380 versus LHPs for his CAREER (.262/.304/.366 versus RHPs)

Schneider for his career is at .244/.309/.325 versus LHPs, Castro is .265/.348/.417)

humble suggestion:
Strict L/R platoons:
C: Schneider & Castro
1B: Delgado & Pascucci
LF: Nixon & Chavez

I think the Mets miss Anna Benson.

I have not read the whole thread yet, but I assume there was or will be a reason stated for firing Randolph et al in SoCal, rather than in NY. Has that surfaced yet?

I think the Mets miss Anna Benson.

Why? Did she find out that Kris was cheating on her?

So, regardless of what you think of what should have been done and how it was handled, do the Mets make the playoffs?



I'm inclined to think no. To me, the Mets just aren't getting enough offense from too many prime offensive positions, and there's just not enough depth available to cover these positions from the bench. They're also not likely to get enough from the back of the rotations, as I'm not a believer in Perez. However, that's the opinion of someone who doesn't closely follow the Mets.

I'd also be inclined to think no. But then I look at the rest of the NL. I don't think the Mets can catch the Phillies. But they must have a decent chance to win the Wild Card. If they can scrape together the wild card and have their rotation in order going into the playoffs, anything can happen.

BP's translation seems pretty aggressive. I have Carp at a still-good, but significantly lower 304/360/458, mainly because the model I worked out this winter pays close attention to BABIP (high BABIP players are the biggest misses with most people's translations).

My favorite quote from Anna Benson:

"They got a bleeping bag of balls for Kris. They didn't get expletive. Julio Jorge and John Maine. They traded a number one stud pitcher who was 30 for at the time, and they blame the red dress."

I have Carp at a still-good, but significantly lower 304/360/458

and he doesn't turn 22 until June 30....

pity that he's allegedly a big slow clumsy oaf...

Why the Ozzie hate? Despite all his talk of smallball and bunting, he manages pretty well and doesn't make too many "did he really do that" in-game moves. He seems well liked by players. He told Mariotti what people here have been saying for ages.
He usually protects his players, and last month's rant was the first time he threw players under the bus. He gets results, players seem to like him and he is entertaining in the media. And the rants helps take the heat of the players and let them be. Well all of them except Shitzynski.
If anything, we need more Ozzies

I'd also be inclined to think no. But then I look at the rest of the NL. I don't think the Mets can catch the Phillies. But they must have a decent chance to win the Wild Card.

You've got a good point here. Of the teams ahead of them in the wild card, I just can't believe that Florida or Saint Louis will keep it up, and Atlanta is done without Smoltz. Really, they'll only have to keep pace with Milwaukee to make a run at the WC.

Everyone keeps hating on the Cardinals but they are always greater than the sum of their parts. LaRussa and Duncan always do a good job. All they do is win.

Everyone keeps hating on the Cardinals but they are always greater than the sum of their parts. LaRussa and Duncan always do a good job. All they do is win.

Do they? I mean, it's not unusual for a sub-.500 team to play .550 ball for the first 70 games of a season, especially if they get the breaks. I haven't see the newer Cards play often enough to know how good they are.

Great, now I will have the Cards fans angry at me in addition to the ChiSox fans.

Really, they'll only have to keep pace with Milwaukee to make a run at the WC.

If they platoon at C, 1B & CF, & Church comes back and puts up a churchlike 116 OPS+ the rest of the way, and the rotation stays, Johan, Maine, Pedro, Perez, Pelfrey... there's nor eason they shouldn't play .550-.575 ball the rest of the way

They are 34-35 (pythag 35-34) now, that's with their LFs collectively hitting .243/.295/.316, their 1Bs hitting .251/.321/.412... and non-Church RFs hitting .276/.329/.345

Right now only 2 Sps have ERA+s over 100, Maine at 104 and Johan at 142

You know when Pedro gets his BABIP below .350 he'll be over 100
and Perez (ok I have no idea what to expect from Perez...)
Well Tony Armas has made 14 starts in the PCL, his K/bb is 75/16 and his ERA is 2.23

I'm kind of mystified as to why he's still down there to be honest, even if the Mets don't like him you'd think some other team would liberate him the way the Mets liberated Trot- teams always need SPs

Everyone keeps hating on the Cardinals but they are always greater than the sum of their parts. LaRussa and Duncan always do a good job. All they do is win.

I didn't mean to imply that I think the Mets are any kind of lock for the WC. I meant the opposite actually. They certainly have a shot, but I'd think they aren't a favorite. You'd have to say the Cards, just with the head start alone, are the favorites. However, they don't look that good on paper and they have serious health issues. The same is doubly true of the Braves. Are the Marlins for real? Hard to believe. Plus the Mets get to play the Braves and Marlins. So, if we're talking about the Mets making a run, you have to eliminate them. The Cards would seem to face tougher competition in the Cubs and Brewers. The WC looks to me to come down to the Mets or Cards. I'd give it 3 to 1 to the Cards.

Is that enough of a hope to hang onto if you're a Mets fan? I dunno. If I were a Mets fan, I think I'd hope for either a run or a full out collapse by July 20.

This had to be done, both Randolph and Peterson. Willie was like a bad football coach, who sticks to his "game plan" even as it proves to be faulty. Think Mota "that's his role and he'll be fine", Heilman (see Mota), Wright batting 6th for much too long, Delgado batting 4th until it was beyond obvious he shouldn't, etc etc etc. A good manager adapts on the fly, Willie couldn't. Peterson, IMO, fell too in love with changeups to the detriment of Heilman and Pelfrey especially and didn't really seem to understand his pitchers. I hope Warthen uses Guy Conti more. He really seems to communicate with the guys.

The most dysfunctional moment for the Sox wasn't hiring Guillen. It was having Lenny Dykstra root for the big league club to lose so he could get the manager's job.

Chris, I must admit this baffles me, and Google is no help. When did this happen?

I'm kind of mystified as to why he's still down there to be honest, even if the Mets don't like him you'd think some other team would liberate him the way the Mets liberated Trot- teams always need SPs

I like the idea of having Armas and Vargas as backups. We will need them later this year, and this year we're better equipped to handle rotation problems.

BPro have him at an untranslated EQA of 331, a regular translated EQA of 298, and an age adjusted translated EQA of 314.

Keep in mind that he's repeating his level and has floundered upon moving up more than once. Too big of a jump might absolutely kill him. MLEs be damned, I bet his OPS is in the .650 range if he's called up to the majors right now. Some players just need a lot of adjustment time, and Carp appears to be one of those players.

Keep in mind that he's repeating his level and has floundered upon moving up more than once.

More than once? Other than last year, when did he flounder upon moving up? And didn't he start last season injured and then out of shape? Not that he should get a pass for allowing himself to get out of shape.

The most dysfunctional moment for the Sox wasn't hiring Guillen. It was having Lenny Dykstra root for the big league club to lose so he could get the manager's job.

Chris, I must admit this baffles me, and Google is no help. When did this happen?

It was Wally Backman when he was managing the Sox AA team in Birmingham IIRC.

and has floundered upon moving up more than once

he has?
No he hasn't, in fact, except for one year he's tended to have fast starts upon being promoted.

As an 18 year old he was sent to the GCL and hit .267/.343/.393

at 19 he went to the Sallie League where he hit .249/.358/.476 (league average: 22 years and .261/.328/.393)

at 20 he went to the FSL where he hit .287/.379/.450 (league average: 23 years and .255/.326/.375)

at 21 he went to the EL- and "struggled", hitting .251/.337/.386 (league: .263/.330/.399)
(he missed 6-7 weeks in the middle of the year with a broken finger- he was hitting .264 when he went out, never got in a groove on his return)

at 22 he went back to the EL and is hitting: .361/.427/.555

He now has 667 AA PAs, at the very least I think he's shown he's mastered that level.

Everyone keeps hating on the Cardinals but they are always greater than the sum of their parts. LaRussa and Duncan always do a good job. All they do is win.

Do they? I mean, it's not unusual for a sub-.500 team to play .550 ball for the first 70 games of a season, especially if they get the breaks.

I think they do. In 2004 THT preseason predictions, the Cards were the consensus third-best team in the NL Central. They won 105 games.

In 2005 they were supposed to be the best team in the league and they were.

In 2006 they had a winning record despite getting all the bad breaks. Only one player appeared in 150 games. Only 3 pitchers tossed over 100 innings - one of whom was Jason Marquis with a 6+ ERA.

In 2007 they were worse than expected.

In 2008 they were (at THT at least) the popular choose for 5th place. They have the second best record in the NL and tied for the 3rd best in all MLB.

And they're not playing .550 ball. They're playing .590 ball. Big difference.

And how often does it really happen that a sub-.500 team plays that well anyway? It's nearly half a season. Think they're a sub-.500 team? Well, they have to play .420 from here on out to go 80-82. They have an absurdly excellent shot to end the year better than expectations. Again.

It's nearly half a season.

They are exceeding their pythag by 4 ( no big deal)
Yadier Molina, a career 73 hitter is putting up a career high 94
Pujols, a career 168 hitter is putting up a career high 190
Adam Kennedy blows- but is better than last year
2008 Glaus is outplaying 2007 Rolen
Izturis is a step down offensively from Eck, a step up defensively- Izturis is also hitting better than he had in 2006 and 2007
Duncan blows
Ankiel is as good as expected
Ludwick? Oh come on, he may be a Phelpser- but he's not THIS GOOD
Schumaker? Ditto

Their staff? Aside from Looper I don't see regression as a big problem.

My so very humble prediction- significant 2nd half offensive fall off, pitching about the same. I'm guessing about a .500 team from here on.

I'm guessing about a .500 team from here on.

And that may well be enough for the WC. If they go 45-46 the rest of the way they end up at 87 wins. I can imagine that winning the WC. A few games over .500 the rest of the way and they win it easily.

'm guessing about a .500 team from here on.

And that may well be enough for the WC.

It very well may be.
I could also be right, that they are a "true talent" .500 team , and yet they go 48-43 the rest of the way and win 90 games.

I could also be completely wrong and they win 95 games

And how often does it really happen that a sub-.500 team plays that well anyway?

No idea, but the 2003 Royals were probably a "true talent" 60-65 win team and they won 83...

The 2008 Pirates, with Nady and McLouth player WAAAAY over their heads could have fluked into breaking their consecutive losing season streak- if only Snell and Gorz hadn't unexpectedly imploded...

My so very humble prediction- significant 2nd half offensive fall off, pitching about the same. I'm guessing about a .500 team from here on.

So you're predicting they do better than expect then? They were expected to come in fifth this year.

Also, when an entire team full of players does better than expected, I figure two separate thins are going on: 1) some good luck, and
2) good coaching.

When a team consistently does better than expected, I lean more heavily on coaching.

I do expect the Cards to drop off some - as a Cubs fan I certainly hope so - but then again I've been expecting them to drop off all year long. Instead, the Cubs go on a 19-9 tear and gain exactly one stinkin' game. aarrrgggghhh

I don't mind Ozzie, he reminds me of successful soccer managers, many of whom have made a career of berating players when they are doing well and supporting them when they are doing badly.