Flaky pitcher, but when he's right, he's fantastic. This is probably a good signing, or at the very least, one that won't really hurt the team.

Is this the same JC Romero that stunk up Anaheim last year?

Never mind, of course it is. Relievers are so inconsistent. I didn't realize his ERA was that good with the Phillies. Still, his K/W on the year was 42/40. ERA was a fluke, same with his .242 BABIP. Good luck with that, Phillies.

Phillie Phans being Phillie Phans, of course, this was getting called for long and loud ever since the season ended. The Phillie Phascination with middle relievers continues.

Now if they can just run Pat Burrell out of town, the Phans will have crossed everything off their to-do list for the winter...

Haha. Burn on Philly. I can't see why they would want him for 3 years. And I don't really think Romero was in a position to demand 3 years as a mediocre-at-best LOOGY who got lucky in a dangerous hitters' park for half a year. This is eerily similar to Schoeneweis' situation last offseason, except for the fact that Schoeneweis was a lot more useful in the 2-3 years prior.

Maybe I'm alone. I really don't think it's that bad. I'd rather have a real up-and-down player than a steady one if the end results look the same. Who among available pitchers is a better bet than Romero for that price?

How did the Red Sox not get anything for him after DFAing him? I'm still surprised they didn't.

Rheal Cormier Redux...

In any event, I am still waiting for Stand Pat to offer A-Rod 3 years/$135 million. It would be a monster PR mover and be a great deal to take advantage of what they have while they can still afford it. Scoring 1,000-1,100 runs may be their only hope with that pitching staff.

I like this move. Of course, I am a Met fan.

Just a horrible move. But I've long contended that Romero sucks

The Phillies made a fantastic move in getting Brad Lidge. This? Not fantastic.

So much money for a guy who could be suck. 4 million a year? Wow.

Don't forget Charlie, Romero can get righties out too. No need to bring Gordon in to face Wright late in games -- it saves the bullpen!

Ha ha ha ha ha.

That is all.

Ha Ha!

I don't see how this signing is any worse than the contract that Scheinyass got from the Mets. Adjust for inphlation, the phalling dollar, and general increase in standard of living once you leave Queens for Philly, and this contract is basically Scheiny Part Deux. The phunny part is, ZiPS gives Romero a pretty decent projection of 4.17 ERA next year, which is pretty good for your phourth or phiphth best reliever in the pen... and incidentally better than what ZiPS expects from Scheiny with the Mets. If you take out the 20 innings that Romero threw with BOS, and you average his PHIP over the last 4 years, it's right around 4.25, which is probably standard for your run of the mill lefty reliever. Doesn't mean the Phillies should have spent this money on Romero, but this is only cash to Gillick which is as good as money... Methinks Red Sox phans are just too bitter.

So much money for a guy who could be suck.

You'll probably be able to say this about every free agent signing we'll see this winter.

And I don't really think Romero was in a position to demand 3 years as a mediocre-at-best LOOGY who got lucky in a dangerous hitters' park for half a year.

I don't think Home Runs have ever been a problem for Romero. And neither righties or lefties hit him that well....it's the walks and general wildness that kill him. Even then, from what I recall, it only seems like he struggles like that when he is brought in in the middle of an inning, especially with runners on. That's a terrible tendency for a LOOGY, but if they bring him in consistantly at the start of inning they can let him pitch the whole inning, and I wouldn't be surprised if he earns most of his money. Or the Phillies fans could kill him after he mixes two walks and two wild pitches in his first game next year to lose the game.

I think his GB/FB ratio was the selling point for the Phillies. The man was a ground ball machine for the Phils--in that park, that's the kind of guy you want.

Best Regards

John

His walk rates ensure that he'll never be too good. His ground ball rates ensure that he'll always have a shot at putting up ok numbers. So-so middle reliever, who probably isn't really worth the price, but should be more effective than many in a park that creates a lot of home runs. Especially if last year's increase in ground ball rate from about 55% most years up to 63% isn't just a fluke.

Ed Wade may have left Philly, but his spirit lives on.

Since I have a new, unsubstantiated theory of bullpen building -- if you have a bullpen that needs work, bring in as many lively arms as you can and let it sort itself out -- whoever is having a good year, use those guys leveragingly. Romero certainly has a lively arm; this is an expensive but not crippling contract. And Charlie did not use him as a LOOGY at all.

Even then, from what I recall, it only seems like he struggles like that when he is brought in in the middle of an inning, especially with runners on

Ahh yes, seems JC has been bit by the "Timlin bug". Also, 3.72 H/9IP? That's not happening again.

I don't see how this signing is any worse than the contract that Scheinyass got from the Mets. Adjust for inphlation, the phalling dollar, and general increase in standard of living once you leave Queens for Philly, and this contract is basically Scheiny Part Deux.

I don't understand- is this a way of recommending it?

Not a bad signing since they can probably flip Romero to Cincinnati for Griffey or Dunn in July.

Not a bad signing since they can probably flip Romero to Cincinnati for Griffey or Dunn in July.

If it's Griffey, they don't need to wait.

Since I have a new, unsubstantiated theory of bullpen building -- if you have a bullpen that needs work, bring in as many lively arms as you can and let it sort itself out --

Ask White Sox fans how this worked out this year. Go ahead. Ask about the "Land of Giants and live arms" bullpen experiment.

I don't understand- is this a way of recommending it?

No, this is a way of saying that 3 years and $10m-$12m is what your run of the mill relievers get in this market. If anyone could defend the Schoenweiss signing, then the Romero deal is just as defensible. Of course, teams with smart GMs make sure to have plenty of pre-arb or arb-level middle relievers that they can plug in the back of the bullpen, so that they don't have to spend $4m/year on free agents... but the Phillies don't have such relievers, and don't have a very smart GM.

I think that is a valid point. Money is not exactly that tight in Philly, and if they want to blow this kind of money, it probably won't hurt them. Romero was pretty darn good last year.

Romero is a groundball pitcher. That makes him a little more valuable to the Phillies than he would be to most teams.

I would not be comfortable at all giving this money (guaranteed over three years, no less) to a guy who's had trouble keeping his K/9 over his BB/9. Once that BABIP normalizes Gillick's may just have an albatross on his hands.

Ask White Sox fans how this worked out this year. Go ahead. Ask about the "Land of Giants and live arms" bullpen experiment.

You can't complain about Jenks' year. :) Are guys like McDougal, Thorton and Bukvich considered to have lively arms? They seem to be career mediocrities to me -- the ones you don't want. But I didn't see them at all this year so maybe I have a warped perspective.

I don't think anybody thought the Schoenweiss deal was smart.

You can't complain about Jenks' year. :) Are guys like McDougal, Thorton and Bukvich considered to have lively arms? They seem to be career mediocrities to me -- the ones you don't want. But I didn't see them at all this year so maybe I have a warped perspective.

Yeah, but Andy Sisco, David Aardsma, and Nick Masset are the definition of giants with live arms. And combined with McDougal, they were basically the basis of the white sox' bullpen.

but the Phillies don't have such relievers, and don't have a very smart GM

Wait, are you saying that Gillick is dumb? Seriously?

Because, as far as I can tell, this is a man who has run teams which have made the playoffs 10 times, including the back to back WS wins with Jays. If he qualifies as dumb, I would love to have a GM that stupid running my team.

As a question, what would you consider to be the resume of a smart GM?

Once that BABIP normalizes Gillick's may just have an albatross on his hands.

It's 3 years and $12M total! In today's market, that's what a decent middle reliever costs on the open market. Also, if I remember correctly, the Philies spent about $90M last year. I highly doubt that the $4M a year is going to cripple them. While it may not be a brilliant and inspired signing, I have an extremely hard time believing that this deal will be an albatross. Have we reached a point where any deal over the major league minimum is going to be considered a disaster?

Have we reached a point where any deal over the major league minimum is going to be considered a disaster? - Ryan Jones

If that deal is for J.C. Romero, then my answer is "yes".

Romero isn't very good and is highly replaceable. I venture that any above average AAA pitcher should be able to be the #5 guy in a bullpen for $350,000 and do damn near as good as the J.C. Romero's of the world, 2007 fluke year be damned.Romero - as others have stated - got very lucky last year. He had a very low H/9 - which is way lower than his career number. Match that with his K/9 rate of about 4 to 4.5 K's per nine innings and it is very unlikely that he puts up an ERA in the high 1's ever again.

Bill Stoneman figured this out the last two years - cut Esteban Yan, Hector Carrasco, J.C. Romero and give the gigs to Dustin Moseley, Chris Bootcheck, etc. Those guys aren't great, but they don't cost anything either. If you are going to spend money in the bullpen, pay for guys with high K/9 numbers.

FWIW, Justin Speier was signed for 4/$16 last winter. I'd MUCH rather have Speier than Romero, and those deals are pretty similar. Speier has a high-ish K rate, can throw multiple innings, has been consistent and could close if need be. Romero is none of those things and costs the same per year....

Gillick just threw $12 million down the toilet.

Romero isn't very good and is highly replaceable. I venture that any above average AAA pitcher should be able to be the #5 guy in a bullpen for $350,000 and do damn near as good as the J.C. Romero's of the world, 2007 fluke year be damned.Romero - as others have stated - got very lucky last year. He had a very low H/9 - which is way lower than his career number. Match that with his K/9 rate of about 4 to 4.5 K's per nine innings and it is very unlikely that he puts up an ERA in the high 1's ever again.

Bill Stoneman figured this out the last two years - cut Esteban Yan, Hector Carrasco, J.C. Romero and give the gigs to Dustin Moseley, Chris Bootcheck, etc. Those guys aren't great, but they don't cost anything either. If you are going to spend money in the bullpen, pay for guys with high K/9 numbers.

Gillick just threw $12 million down the toilet.

I'm sorry, but I have to disagree, especially with the certainty expressed by posters here. Here are his numbers from 2002 to 2007.

IP ERA+
81 236
63 91
74 135
57 128
58 68
56 243

To my eye, it looks like you'll get one good year, one bad year and one great year. That is easily worth 12m. People need to take each contract and roughly cut it in half before evaluating whether it is a good deal. I think commenters just can't get their heads around the amount of money teams are making. The average team revenue was $200M (average team). Get used to it, this is what ballplayers are worth now. It's a market deal. The Phillies are good enough that they need arms in the bullpen and shouldn't be leaving it all up to chance on AAA free agents, Tom Gordon and Ryan Madson. Romero is also a very popular player here right now. Myers, Gordon and Romero were just spectacular down the stretch and pitched seemingly every day.

Here are the top LH relievers from 2003-2007. Romero has the 18th best ERA+. If we go back to 2002 he jumps up to 9th. Is that a highly replaceable pitcher?

Top LH Relievers 2003-2007

Ha - I posted something on the Dugout thread by mistake, not knowing this thread was here!

Anyway, looking @ his peripherals, it seems sketchy to use ERA+ to determine Romero's true value. That total for last year, for instance, is totally skewed by his Phillie line, which itself is skewed because he allowed only 15 hits in 36+ IP (an abnormal hit rate for him, even during his best years). His abominable walk rate (nearly one per IP) stayed the same, though. And his Boston ERA+ of 150 is ridiculously out of whack re: his actual performance - I would hop it doesn't say anything about the inherited runners he allowed, or the fact that his WHIP was nearly 1.95 despite that sexy 3.15 ERA.

Of course, that walk rate last year is abnormal as well - even when he stunk, he was getting hit, not giving up free baserunners. If the walk rate thing is here to stay, however, AND his hit rate returns to normal, then he's not going to be worth one-tenth that contract.

hop = hope, BTW

He had a poor strand rate, around 35%. We can comment that his peripherals stink, but he has gotten a lot outs over the last six years. I may be completely wrong on this. I'm not saying he is the second coming of Mariano Rivera. I'm saying he is a respectable (if unorthodox) reliever and as such, this is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of his actual market value. J.C. Bradbury doesn't like this deal either on Sabernomics.com.

Sean, with all due respect I think we need to take 2002 out of the equation.

Romero was MUCH better in that year for good reason. A low BB rate, a high K rate and a low HR rate. He hasn't been that pitcher since and his "great" season in 2007 was truly fortunate. His Hits per 9 rate is ridiculously low and his BB rate is still roughly 1 BB per inning.

There aren't too many pitchers with that profile that get this type of contract. He is benefiting from a good 1/2 season at the right time. Additionally, luck has a lot to do with that great 1/2 season - nobody has that type of hit rate and sustains it consistently.

Romero blows and his 2007 was not that great, even considering that shiny ERA.

This is a colossal waste of money - and when teams ##### about player salaries - this is the type of contract that they need to be annoyed with. Replaceable mediocrities shouldn't earn $4 million per year.

If he posts over a 140 ERA+ again I'll be surprised. But, this is the NL - so maybe that is possible...

Will you be surprised if he is over 125? He has done that four of the last six years.