In fact, based solely on run differential, [the D-Backs] are among the biggest overachievers in baseball history… The Diamondbacks have scored 467 runs and allowed 496. Using James’ formula, they would be expected to have a .470 winning percentage.
In actuality, they have a .558 winning percentage, a .088 point gap that would be the second-largest discrepancy between actual record and expected record in baseball history.
According to David W. Smith of Retrosheet.org, only the 1905 Detroit Tigers, who outplayed their expected record by .091 percentage points, had a bigger discrepancy.
So how are the Diamondbacks doing it? General Manager Josh Byrnes has some ideas, and they start with his team’s ability to win one-run games… Still, studies have shown that one-run games often are crapshoots. Do these factors help eliminate the coin-flip aspect of close games?
“Yes and no,” Byrnes said. “I don’t want to use the word luck, but in some years you play a little better in one-run games. Some years you don’t. As a team, our roster, I think we have so many guys who contribute and contribute late in games. Anytime we’re in a close game, we have a good feeling. We trust our guys and our ability to score runs, ability to shut them down.”
Posted: August 07, 2007 at 07:24 AM | 21 comment(s)
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