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Friday, December 04, 2009

Armida: The Battle Between Sabermatricians and Scouts is Simply A Myth

Yeah, right, and so is the Da Derga’s Hostel…but I ain’t booking no rooms anytime soon!

The only reason this debate still lives is because of the media and fans. In reality, it seems the mainstream media has also started to make peace with both sides. The fact that Zack Greinke was the Cy Young Award winner gives a nod to advanced statistics rather than simply comparing wins totals. But, for fans, there is an insistence that one method is preferable over the other. The first reason comes down to comprehension. At first glance, many of the advanced metrics are complicated statistics that take more than one glance to understand. Some may argue it takes away from the beauty of the game. However, as many have come to realize, these statistics only enhance the beauty of the game as the players’ excellence is more clearly defined. Can one understand the game without knowing a pitcher’s FIP or a player’s WAR? Sure, they can; people did that for decades. However, knowing those statistics gives a better appreciation for just how dominant a player has been.

Arguing over statistical analysis and its place in baseball is quite pointless. There is a place; there is an importance. They don’t replace scouting; they only help scouting. Statistics make scouting even better. Can people get too carried away with statistical analysis? Sure, but that’s only when the person believes that statistics are the only way to go. Essentially, that person has flipped the roles of the classic debate with those “ignorant traditionalists”. Now, the stats believer (who holds that singular belief) is the ignorant one. It is time to move on as organizations have married the two sides. It is time for the fans to get on board.

 

Repoz Posted: December 04, 2009 at 01:10 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, sabermetrics, scouting

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   1. Tricky Dick Posted: December 04, 2009 at 01:44 PM (#3403156)
yawn.
   2. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: December 04, 2009 at 03:14 PM (#3403206)
I am outraged by your lack of outrage about the myth that stat vs. scouts is a myth.
   3. Bob Dernier Cri Posted: December 04, 2009 at 03:51 PM (#3403249)
Personally, I intend to man a barricade outside the Ballpark in Arlington until all players are evaluated by GAZOOP, a metric that involves multiplying their ROE/GIDP by the number of calories in the microwave meal my mom sends down to the basement each evening. Myth, my ###.
   4. heyyoo Posted: December 04, 2009 at 03:52 PM (#3403251)
In fact, all organizations have their own advanced metrics to evaluate players


I don't believe this to be true at all. I think some organizations may be using their own versions of advanced fielding metrics, but most are probably not. I think there is still a lot of resistence to reliance on fielding metrics at the decision maker level in MLB. Less so than 5 years ago, to be sure, but definitely not all. Most likely half at most.
   5. Greg Schuler Posted: December 04, 2009 at 04:08 PM (#3403271)
Tanned grumpy old men versus pallid basement-dwelling weaklings - what hurts more, a pocket protector or a stopwatch?
   6. Juan V Posted: December 04, 2009 at 04:28 PM (#3403291)
Maybe you should get some scouts and some stats guys in a roundtable or something....
   7. fra paolo Posted: December 04, 2009 at 07:04 PM (#3403451)
I was re-reading an intro to an old Baseball America Prospect Handbook this AM, and when it said something along the lines of 'teams nowadays will tolerate mediocre fielding from a good-hitting middle infielder', I decided that sabermetrics *has* had a profound influence on decision-making in baseball probably since the middle 1990s.

To some extent the 21st century developments in this vein were a product of BPro's 'hey, look at us' strategy of using snark to describe moves. You can't help but wonder if all that noise was made in order for them to get jobs with baseball teams or to become political analysts.

One of the French nouvelle vague directors (Godard, I think) more or less confessed that as far as he was concerned their auteur theory was simply a strategy to get attention. I view the 'stats vs scouts' debate in the same light.

And, of course, the media loves to make a confrontation out of a discussion. BPro, to their credit, knew this and exploited it.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2009 at 08:50 PM (#3403577)
knowing those statistics gives a better appreciation for just how dominant a player has been.

I think I disagree with this actually. Where stats makes the game less fun is in identifying the huge role of luck (or "luck" or "random variation" or "yet-and-never-to-be-explained variation" or whatever you want to call it). All these dreary projection systems reminding us that even Pujols isn't as good as his stats -- shame on them!

Maybe you should get some scouts and some stats guys in a roundtable or something....

Ironically (in an Alanis Morrisette sense), the table was a rectangle.

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