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Thursday, August 17, 2017

Arthur: Buster Posey Has Quietly Become A Lock For Cooperstown

The Giants’ record might make Posey easy to overlook, but his combination of hitting and defense makes him almost a lock to one day join the Hall. In fact, despite being only 30 years old, Posey might already have a Hall of Fame résumé if he retired today.

538’s baseball coverage hasn’t been great, has it?

Baldrick Posted: August 17, 2017 at 03:57 PM | 114 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: buster posey, fivethirtyeight, hall of fame

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   101. Booey Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:26 PM (#5517344)
and flip again
   102. Sunday silence Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:33 PM (#5517345)
Cano is Al Oliver for me. He's an impressive player,..


this does not strike me as a good comparison because while they are both playing important defensive positions, Posey is considered very good at defense (going from memory here) and Olive almost certainly was not. Even at his peak in the 70s I am pretty sure he was considered not a very good defender, his defensive runs go from about zero to one year with -26. He never has more than 4-5 assists in CF which I think a pretty good CF may have around 10. His base running also seems to show he didnt have good instincts, his early years were mediocre, he had one year when he went 10/11 and after age 30 he was awful.

The Pirates in the early 70s were very good and no doubt that he smart organizational people. I think he was almost a classic example of being stretched to fill a defensive position. Most people were suprised he was traded in 1978 but looking at his def. numbers and his age you can figure that they saw the handwriting on the wall.

He made 8 all star teams, as late as age 36. I dont know what to say about that. People really liked that he had good line drive ability in an era with somewhat lower run scoring. I guess.

EDIT: Oh hell I thought you were comparing him to Posey. NEver mind.
   103. Booey Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:35 PM (#5517348)
We live in a world where Schilling and Mussina are far from sure things to make the HOF. Scherzer's third cy young won't seal the deal.


Schilling and Mussina combined to win 0 CYA's and didn't win 300 games in an era when 4 contemporaries did. They're being compared to 4 all time greats (Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Pedro) and another 300 game winner (Glavine) who combined for 21 CYA's.

Scherzer is likely going to be compared to only 1 all time great contemporary with 3 or more CYA's (Kershaw), and there won't likely be any 300 game winners from his generation to make his wins total look unimpressive.

Big difference, IMO. I could easily see Scherzer being considered the 2nd best pitcher of his generation. Schilling and Moose are battling for 6th place in theirs in the eyes of the voters.
   104. Booey Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:45 PM (#5517351)
I wouldn't quite call Cano a lock yet, but he's really, really damn close. Barring an absolute cliff dive he's going to pass 3000 hits and break the 2B HR record. Worst case scenario he ends up with Jeff Kent's career totals, but in a less offense happy era and with better defense.

I'm very confident Robby makes the HOF.
   105. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:46 PM (#5517352)
Big difference, IMO. I could easily see Scherzer being considered the 2nd best pitcher of his generation. Schilling and Moose are battling for 6th place in theirs in the eyes of the voters.


That seems a stretch, Greinke looks to be a better pitcher than Scherzer, Verlander also has an argument, and I'm not seeing any real separation other than the Cy count between him and Felix or Hamels. And Sale is well on his way of joining the conversation.
   106. Sunday silence Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:51 PM (#5517355)
How many position hofers played as a starter on all 3 of those Giant teams? You have Buster Posey, and Sandoval.... But going forward, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt were on two of those teams.... neither seem like likely hofers, but it's not out of the question.


its interesting if that is an argument for or against (the notion that you need a HoF position player to "glue" a great team together).

I mean on the one hand, you can argue that 3 ws over a 5 year period is such a long enuf period that you really cant expect much consistency in player personnel. I can see that, and I think 5 years is pushing envelope for how long one can think about a team being, THAT TEAM, or MY TEAM...I think that is the argument that CFB is making yes?

Its even harder to keep the same personnel in the era of free agency obviously. I thought about this and to me if there's a certain core of players who are important pieces then I think of it as that team. I can think of the early 70s Pirats having Clemente, Stargell, Oliver, Sanguillen, Maz, enuf of time so that they form a sort of consistent team for several years. Its a given there are always going to be bits and pieces that you have to glue on or toss away.

As the decade wore on, there's just Stargell I guess, so I dont really see much carry over from say the 1975 team to the 1979 team.

On the other hand, I guess you can argue that Posey ( and maybe Pence) is the only glue that holds that team together for 5 years and makes it feel like a consistent team. Its hard to sort this out in an era of free agency.
   107. Booey Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5517356)
I'm also comfortable calling Beltran a lock at this point, as long as we're not defining "lock" as first ballot for some reason. There's really nothing more he can do at this point to help or hurt his case. 70 WAR will get the SABR friendly voters on board, while 2700 hits, 435 homers, almost 1600 runs and rbi, 300 SB's, 9 AS selections, 3 gold gloves, and some gaudy postseason numbers should be enough for the traditionalists. He's basically a better version of Dawson. It may take 5 tries, but I think he's in.
   108. Booey Posted: August 20, 2017 at 03:55 PM (#5517359)
I'm not seeing any real separation other than the Cy count between him and Felix or Hamels.


Maybe, but that's a big one. Ditto with Scherzer vs Greinke/Verlander.
   109. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5517379)
I think that you are putting too much stress on the number of Cy Youngs over the quality of the pitcher. And it's not like Scherzer has won his third one yet. And even if he does, that doesn't mean he'll be regarded as the clear number two among the group of pitchers behind Kershaw of his era.

And of course it's not like Greinke is already past his prime, he has a 149 era+ this season and is third in the NL in pitcher war, just one behind Scherzer with 8 or so starts remaining, and Gio Gonzalez is even closer to Scherzer, that he could still end up as the Cy Winner this year.
   110. Lars6788 Posted: August 20, 2017 at 04:12 PM (#5517382)
It's possible Scherzer ends up like other pitchers who lose it in their 30s, but he still seems to have momentum going forward unlike verlander who has been up and down - Greinke is pretty good but has he been elite recently, where has had a signature game or won a Cy Young?

Felix is probably at a crossroads now.
   111. The Yankee Clapper Posted: August 20, 2017 at 04:29 PM (#5517392)
Of course their manager is almost certain to get in.

FTFY.
   112. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 04:31 PM (#5517394)
Greinke is pretty good but has he been elite recently, where has had a signature game or won a Cy Young?


Not sure about a signature game, but he finished 2nd in the Cy Young way back in 2015(7th in the MVP voting) made the all star team this year, and is currently 3rd in the NL in war among pitchers, 2nd in wins in the NL, 5th in era, etc... he's having an all star/cy young quality season this season.

Kershaw is going to make the conversation about the second best pitcher of the era, be a conversation where people are going to come from all different angles... Sabathia is going to be close to 300 career wins, Greinke, Felix, Sale, Verlander, Bumgarner all might have different arguments and Sale (along with a couple of other up and comers, might add more to the conversation)
   113. BDC Posted: August 20, 2017 at 05:44 PM (#5517510)
Sabathia is going to be close to 300 career wins

You may be more sanguine about Sabathia's future than Sabathia is :) He had a good outing yesterday, but he's 67 wins from 300, he just turned 37 yesterday, and he has averaged seven wins per season over the last four years.

   114. cardsfanboy Posted: August 20, 2017 at 06:18 PM (#5517552)
You may be more sanguine about Sabathia's future than Sabathia is :) He had a good outing yesterday, but he's 67 wins from 300, he just turned 37 yesterday, and he has averaged seven wins per season over the last four years.


I'm pretty certain that if Sabathia wants to play, he'll get at least another three years in the majors, and 10 or so wins doesn't seem out of the question on average, giving him 263 wins.
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