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Monday, November 30, 2009

A’s Offseason Projection & Rule 5 draft analysis

Probably the most detailed and realistic offseason projection I’ve read, and that’s from a non-A’s fan.  The intelligent Rule 5 discussion and suggestions would probably be of interest to the crowd here.

ARox Posted: November 30, 2009 at 02:57 AM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, minor leagues, projections, white sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. DCA Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:45 AM (#3398879)
Seems pretty reasonable. With 2010 effectively already punted, I wouldn't mind seeing Cunningham being given a full time job to see what he can do, but there's no one to take it from at the moment, and it's likely to happen anyway after the first OF/DH injury, so no worries. That and I want to see Patterson get 120 starts in a Phillips/Figgins type role. But he'll probably be the starting 3B most of the year while Chavez and McPherson are on the DL.

I also don't know about Morel. I've read a couple of hot stoves pieces targeting him in trade. Am I missing something? He's either (a) not very good so why would you want him? or (b) pretty decent so why would the Sox move him? Unless they sign Beltre, they're just as likely to have a hole at 3B about the time he's ready to play.
   2. greenback Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:55 AM (#3398884)
Amazingly, the Tribe has roughly seven players who are legitimate candidates to be selected by other teams, even though they already added seven prospects to the 40-man roster on the November 20th deadline.

I hope SOSHially Unacceptable has the A+ joke machine warmed up.
   3. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:10 AM (#3398887)
I assume the White Sox would move Morel only if they believe in Viciedo at 3B or if they believe in Escobar at SS and Ramirez at 3B.

The trouble with Patterson at 3B is that he's almost never played there. Supposedly his arm is a noodle. He did play 19 innings there in 2009 for Sacramento, with 4 errors. That's a problem if you aspire to be Figgins or Phillips.
   4. Sox Machine Posted: November 30, 2009 at 05:27 AM (#3398890)
or (b) pretty decent so why would the Sox move him?

Because Kenny Williams is his GM, is the simple answer. Also, he's hit for a decent amount of power thus far, but Birmingham (AA) is a major challenge in that department, which could kill his stock.

On the other hand, if he repeats his High-A performance in Birmingham, he becomes a lot more interesting. He's got a good glove, he's a good baserunner, and he's shown pretty good strike zone control so far. Joe Randa has been a popular comp, but his projections received an upgrade after he won the AFL batting title. Viciedo isn't long for third, so Morel has a path to the majors with the Sox if he repeats what he's done, and if the Sox don't deal him.
   5. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: November 30, 2009 at 06:55 AM (#3398900)
I would hope that if the Sox deal Morel, they get something better back than Hairston or Cust. They're interesting ballplayers, but not worth giving up real talent for. Besides, the Sox have plenty of bench players, and Cust isn't the kind of player that Williams or Guillen likes.

Wuertz is more intriguing, but still, if I'm dealing Morel (and paying all of Wuertz's salary), I'm asking what the A's are sending along with Wuertz.
   6. Danny Posted: November 30, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3399013)
Besides, the Sox have plenty of bench players, and Cust isn't the kind of player that Williams or Guillen likes.

Isn't Cust the same kind of player as Jim Thome? They've been nearly identical over the past 3 years.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:25 PM (#3399054)
Jeff Fiorentino is a guy we discussed at Royals Review. Seems to be a favorite among the stat crowd for a cheap plus defender who hit a bit last year in AAA and is still youngish.

Interesting point about the Cleveland roster logjam. They're probably going to get "raided", but the Pirates were mocked for getting "raided" a few years back and I don't really recall any of those guys doing very well save for a month where Chris Shelton hit everything out of the park.
   8. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:43 PM (#3399081)
Isn't Cust the same kind of player as Jim Thome? They've been nearly identical over the past 3 years.

Good point, but ever since the season ended, Williams has been saying that he's not going to keep a "DH-only" type around any more, and I think that, as much as Guillen liked Thome personally, he doesn't like having guys on his team that aren't good at defense.
   9. Crispix Attacks Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:49 PM (#3399087)
Interesting point about the Cleveland roster logjam. They're probably going to get "raided", but the Pirates were mocked for getting "raided" a few years back and I don't really recall any of those guys doing very well save for a month where Chris Shelton hit everything out of the park.

Frank Brooks did pretty well in the weight room.
   10. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 30, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3399100)
Fiorentino did not, fwiw, do well in ZiPS. But, I like him.

I read the article yesterday and don't remember it that well, but I'll comment anyway...
* I don't get the Anthony Recker love - he's not that great. Subpar glove, so-so bat. If you want a catcher from Rule 5 (which rarely works but - hey!), look to the Cubs. Clevenger is interesting, if a ways off, and I'm a Robinson Chirinos fan - who could also supersub all over the place (he was a utility infielder before his conversion to catching <2 years back). I don't think he'd get picked, but there's a number of teams he could potentially help (lacks the ceiling to make it worthwhile, though).
* I do think A.Rodriguez will go. Pino is a possibility, but his (relative lack of) stuff may preclude it.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:24 PM (#3399320)
the Pirates were mocked for getting "raided" a few years back

True, but the mocking was also due to the dreck they kept on the 40-man in place of the guys they lost. Not that I remember any of the details now but I think there were 25-year-old AA relievers kept in favor of guys like Shelton.

But it is an interesting point about the Indians 40-man overflow and, given they've traded an entire team in the last 18 months, I'd imagine the Pirates were in a similar position this year. Maybe it balanced out OK for the Pirates given how empty their system was before.
   12. JPWF13 Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3399330)
Not that I remember any of the details now but I think there were 25-year-old AA relievers kept in favor of guys like Shelton.


More to the point, they kept guys who they decided to outright release before the next year began.
   13. zonk Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:49 PM (#3399343)
True, but the mocking was also due to the dreck they kept on the 40-man in place of the guys they lost. Not that I remember any of the details now but I think there were 25-year-old AA relievers kept in favor of guys like Shelton.

But it is an interesting point about the Indians 40-man overflow and, given they've traded an entire team in the last 18 months, I'd imagine the Pirates were in a similar position this year. Maybe it balanced out OK for the Pirates given how empty their system was before.


Right - that's always the thing that bothered me...

With Andy Sisco being just about done, one of my favorite Hendry drums has been gathering dust on the shelf -- but that's an example of stupidity in my mind. Why waste a 40 man spot for a fungible commodity?

I have no idea what the depth in the ChiSox system is like -- but if the White Sox lose anyone in the rule 5 -- I'd have to wonder about the wisdom in rushing to lock up Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones....

First - how truly big is the risk in waiting until after 12/1 to ink them... and second, if you lose 'em, would the plan B for a 4th OF who can pseudo-hit lefties and a utlity IF truly be that great a drop-off?

This is one of those instances where playing sims like OOTP ruins my ability to rationally judge GMs -- I know it's not as easy as I'd like to think -- but I NEVER lose players in the rule 5 even though my AAA farm team is generally good enough to compete in the majors. If you have something of value -- and if another team is willing to chance a roster spot, chosen players have SOME kind of value -- why don't you either trade it, or manage your 40 man in such a way that you don't give it away basically for free?
   14. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: November 30, 2009 at 08:58 PM (#3399357)
First - how truly big is the risk in waiting until after 12/1 to ink them... and second, if you lose 'em, would the plan B for a 4th OF who can pseudo-hit lefties and a utlity IF truly be that great a drop-off?

I'm not sure what the benefit to waiting after 12/1 would be.

The White Sox have a very shallow minor-league system at the moment, in terms of major-league-ready talent. All of their good players are either on the 40-man roster or don't need to be protected. They had 32 roster spots filled about a week ago. They added five minor leaguers, bringing the roster to 37. They then signed Vizquel and Jones, bringing the roster to 39. They could still add someone else to the roster if they really wanted to.

The two guys they might lose to the rule 5 draft are Ehren Wassermann, who I believe is coming off a serious injury and was probably an AAAA guy to begin with, and John Shelby III, who had a disappointing season in AA this year. His ceiling is probably as a fourth outfielder - if someone wants to grab him and use a 25-man roster spot on him all year, then they're welcome to him. Neither player has much if any trade value.
   15. Danny Posted: November 30, 2009 at 09:44 PM (#3399396)
I don't think Recker is a real prospect, but I think the worry is that he's the A's best option as a backup catcher if the forever-fragile Landon Powell goes down. He's better than Donaldson at this point, and I haven't heard an update on Joel Galarraga's shoulder injury in awhile.
   16. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 30, 2009 at 09:53 PM (#3399403)
According to Scout.com

Catcher Joel Galarraga, who was signed by the A’s out of the Mexican League last season, is continuing to progress in his recovery from right shoulder surgery. He is in month six of an eight month recovery and has begun throwing short distances.
   17. Danny Posted: November 30, 2009 at 09:57 PM (#3399407)
Thanks, HK! Hot off the presses...
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:11 PM (#3399419)
"True, but the mocking was also due to the dreck they kept on the 40-man in place of the guys they lost. Not that I remember any of the details now but I think there were 25-year-old AA relievers kept in favor of guys like Shelton."

You recall correctly. Among other things, they held onto Mike Lincoln as an impending free agent through the draft, and then let him walk without making an offer less than a week later. To say nothing of fungible roster clutter like Carlos Rivera, Jason Boyd, etc.

And don't forget that in creating roster spots for the players they DID end up protecting, they lost Matt Guerrier and Duaner Sanchez on waivers. Just an all-around botch.

"Frank Brooks did pretty well in the weight room."

In fairness to Brooks on the issue of physical conditioning, he spent at least a couple offseasons working as a firefighter. If my life depended on my physical fitness, I'd want to be as jacked as possible, too.
   19. esseff Posted: November 30, 2009 at 10:40 PM (#3399444)
I have no idea what the depth in the ChiSox system is like -- but if the White Sox lose anyone in the rule 5 -- I'd have to wonder about the wisdom in rushing to lock up Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones....

First - how truly big is the risk in waiting until after 12/1 to ink them


It's better to expose your minor leaguers to the Rule V than to add them to the 40-man and then have to waive/outright them later for FA signings. If you lose the guy to the Rule V, the claiming team has to keep him on its 25-man roster or return him. If you lose a guy on waivers because you're trying to outright him off the 40-man, the claiming team has only to keep him on its 40-man roster.

Now, if you can get guys like Jones and Vizquel to sign minor league contracts now with a promise that they'll be promoted next opening day, after you've had more opportunity to identify some roster deadwood, then you can probably have your cake and eat it, too.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 30, 2009 at 11:03 PM (#3399467)
It's better to expose your minor leaguers to the Rule V than to add them to the 40-man and then have to waive/outright them later for FA signings.

This is an important point that often gets overlooked.

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