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Monday, May 05, 2014

Astros’ Firkus brings unique perspective, background to injury analysis - Houston Chronicle

Trying to avoid the pain.

Jim Furtado Posted: May 05, 2014 at 05:39 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: injuries

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   1. RollingWave Posted: May 06, 2014 at 02:52 AM (#4700946)
Trying to avoid the pain.


Aka avoid watching the Astros?
   2. jmurph Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:24 AM (#4700968)
I'll say this for the Astros, they're completely devoid of talent and are probably years away from sniffing .500, but their media relations department seems to be doing a bang up job.
   3. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:17 AM (#4700983)
So how realistic is it that the Astros will actually be good-really good within the next few years? jmurph is right. I'm kind of amazed at the positive vibes surrounding a team en route to its fourth consecutive 100-loss season, youth movement or not.
   4. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:21 AM (#4700986)
So how realistic is it that the Astros will actually be good-really good within the next few years? jmurph is right. I'm kind of amazed at the positive vibes surrounding a team en route to its fourth consecutive 100-loss season, youth movement or not.


It depends on whether ownership will ever be willing to spend serious money, but sure, it's possible. The Pirates lost 105 games in 2010 and won 94 in 2013. The Tigers lost 119 in 2003 and won 95 in 2006. The Astros' farm system is far behind where those teams' systems were, but can the Astros be competitive by 2018, 2019? Certainly they can.
   5. base ball chick Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:28 AM (#4701038)
jmurph Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:24 AM (#4700968)

I'll say this for the Astros, they're completely devoid of talent and are probably years away from sniffing .500, but their media relations department seems to be doing a bang up job


- you're not a houstonian or even a texan, are you?

the chron reporters write what they are told to and have for years and years. the ones who didn't - jose de ortiz and brian mctaggart, uh, left and richard justice finally got his long desired job with mlb.

the chron doesn't have much circulation anymore, the team isn't talked about much any more on sports radio (and unlike cleveland/washington, it wasn't like that BEFORE that ****ing crane bought the team). richard justice, who was supposed to be a general columnist (in spite of him really being first and last a devout baseball man) replied to some person back in 06 or 07 who asked which was the most popular professional sport in houstn - got the most questions/comments/mail/questions on sports radio - and he said the astros, and it isn't even close. which, at that time, was absolutely true. AND houstonians could watch the rockets games on TV back then...

there are very few local fans who GO to the games - the reported gate is nowheres near the numbers actually IN the stands. 2/3 of houston can't see games on tv. nobody in other cities except corpus christie cares about the astros any more.

the only people left who are in love with this team are the numbers people who were/are in love with billy beane/"moneyball" and the fantasy of the wonderfulness of prospects and the dream that suddenly, all these alal stars will all come up together and THEN the ****ing owner will suddenly spend all this money to buy FA and the team will win year after year like the nationals do.
um
i mean the rays do
uh
er
nevermind
   6. kthejoker Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:40 AM (#4701047)
The Astros' farm system is far behind where those teams' systems were


How is this true? The Astros easily have the #1 farm system in baseball and a good portion of their talent pipeline is set to move to the big club this year and next.

Also, while I'm not one of Lisa's rose-colored optimist, but I do believe that if the Astros are competitive in July 2016 that they will be buyers and not sellers. And if they get the TV contract worked out, the team will be fine in the long run.

It is kind of sad that Houston is ridiculously flush with cash from energy and healthcare and our team has this guy for an owner.

   7. base ball chick Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:52 AM (#4701064)
the astros farm doesn't have any players who look like all-stars. and i mean ANY. their last 2 all-stars have been jose altuve, their singles hitting second baseman who is "the face of the franchise" and their long time pimpee catcher, whose "defense" is barely better than ryan doumit - to be nice about it, and whose bat isn't even yadi molina, let alone mike piazza

they've brought up almost all the guys they traded for over the past 5 years and heavily pimped (a few exceptions) and none of them are even solid major leaguers.

i remind folks that the astros 06 AA team won the AA championship and look how far those guys went
   8. base ball chick Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:58 AM (#4701068)
oh yeah

this pretending that houston is a medium/small market is beyond bullspit. with the exception of the past 2 games, i've been going to games all my life and have never seen a time when the astros are less relevant than soccer (houston has a professional team, i found out)

the owner has also seriously increased the price of all the cheap seats - almost doubled int he past 3 years - keep out the riffraff i guess. and no cheap tix days any more.

the owner is pocketing millions and millions every year. i get it explained to me over and over again - so he pockets the money, good for him. why should he spend any money on any FA when he can't buy enough to win the WS. what's the difference between a 50 win team and any team that doesn't win 83?

this is why big biz CEOs make hundreds of mill a year each and complain about how Those Greedy Employees want stuff like wages high enough to not have to be on welfare/medicaid/food stamps too
   9. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: May 06, 2014 at 11:36 AM (#4701131)
the astros farm doesn't have any players who look like all-stars.

Carlos Correa doesn't look like an All-Star to you?
   10. base ball chick Posted: May 06, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4701246)
der K

i would like to see carlos correa face higher level pitching, and this does not include lancaster, before i make any judgements like that

i did, however, correctly predict that jose altuve would make the majors and be a solid major leaguer back before any prospect person did. they are too hung up on size. in fact, i would love to see scouting reports that were not allowed to include a physical description of the player or some other player they remind the sacout of
   11. kthejoker Posted: May 06, 2014 at 01:38 PM (#4701251)
1) If you don't think Lance McCullers or Domingo Santana or Mike Foltynewicz "look like" All Stars, then I can't think of anybody who does. (More generally, you're setting the "All-Star" bar way too high. There are 40 All-Stars from each league every year.)

2) Cosart, Villar, Keuchel, and Dominguez have absolutely been "solid major leaguers" this season.

3) The main point of a "farm" system is to accumulate a lot of prospects, cultivate them the best you can, and hope a diamond in the rough emerges. The Astros are doing a very good job of this.

4) The Astros are majorly underperforming and have had a bit of bad luck to boot, and I think with even a little correction, they could still win 70 games this year, which would be a huge step in the right direction for the franchise.

   12. Justin T is going to crush some tacos Thursday Posted: May 06, 2014 at 02:27 PM (#4701297)
So how realistic is it that the Astros will actually be good-really good within the next few years? jmurph is right. I'm kind of amazed at the positive vibes surrounding a team en route to its fourth consecutive 100-loss season, youth movement or not.

Luhnow has provided the stat community with catnip at every turn.

If you're somebody who says about every free agent signing "Looks like an overpay and this guy is not going to be very good in years 5 and 6" then the Astros are for you.
   13. jmurph Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:58 PM (#4701442)
BBC: we're 100% on the same page on our assessments of the Astros. Just to be clear, my post in #2 was about all of the positive SABRy things that keep getting posted here, despite the historic awfulness of their on-field performance. I'm sure you're right that they're completely off the actual radar in your area.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: May 06, 2014 at 06:12 PM (#4701570)
So how realistic is it that the Astros will actually be good-really good within the next few years? jmurph is right. I'm kind of amazed at the positive vibes surrounding a team en route to its fourth consecutive 100-loss season, youth movement or not.

The positive comp is not so much the Pirates (who were battling the Cubs for last place when I looked) but the Rays who went from absolute crap without much of a system to absolute crap with a strong system then, overnight, to 97 wins and an AL title and won 90+ for 4 of the 5 years after that. With a good draft/develop system, the right amount of luck, a couple of trades that work out insanely well, and some opportune dumpster-diving, it can work -- even without ever spending any money.

Probably only once every ten times or something (see Royals, see maybe Pirates). There is also the Marlins model of going all-in for one year, then stripping it all out. Then there's the A's model of draft mediocre, develop mediocre, trade mediocre, waste precious millions on underproductive FA/vets ... and still win 90 most of the time.
   15. Roger Cedeno's Spleen Posted: May 06, 2014 at 06:28 PM (#4701583)
Is there an over/under on the date of the first relocation rumor?
   16. kthejoker Posted: May 06, 2014 at 06:42 PM (#4701590)
Is there an over/under on the date of the first relocation rumor?


Can't imagine this will happen, there are a ton of corporate season tickets and sponsors here in Houston. My company always has tickets floating around the office, I don't think they're truly hurting for revenue.
   17. base ball chick Posted: May 06, 2014 at 07:13 PM (#4701606)
kthe joker

agreee that the astros will not relocate and they are dripping with corporate sponsors. they haven't had trouble selling corp suites, last i heard. it's just that nobody goes and nobody cares. amy good source tells me and has told me that they are positively NOT hurting for revenue, and crane is making a killing every year


dallas keuchel was an ed wade pick and was never a pimpee - hehhehheh. like altuve, he succeeded in SPITE of their assessments (like chris johnson)

i know better than to think that anyone under AA looks like an all star. and with damm few exceptions, i need to see them handle AAA, seeing as how many of them can't.

dominguez is a lousy hitter and good fielder. i would hardly call him a solid major leaguer. villar is miguel tejada level of fielder - meaning awful. i have no idea why on earth this guy was ever pimped. cosart had a hot start last year, and this year, looks like a 4th guy. but i like to give a player a little more time than he's gotten. he's done great for a 38th rounder, i would say
   18. SteveM. Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:56 PM (#4701663)
What guarantee is there that Houston will actually spend money when their prospects start arriving at the Major League level? Its what I keep asking about the Cubs rebuild. Even if the prospects down at AA or below make it, are they willing to spend money to surround them with veterans? And of course with pitching prospects, TINSTAAPP.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: May 07, 2014 at 02:42 AM (#4701832)
There's that funny business about the sale to the Trib and the eternal Wrigley renovation, but I'm confident that when the time comes the Cubs will spend money. Or at least try to. Whether there will be anybody worth spending it on or whether they will spend it well I'm not so sure of.

But y'know, at this stage I'll be happy if enough of the prospects make it well enough that they don't suck or at least give me a star player to root for.

Man, finally get a good start out of Edwin Jackson ...

On relocation ... now #15 never said they would relocate (they'd be made to), he said the rumors of relocation would start. I mean if Jeffrey Loria can sucker the local govt into donating hundreds of millions of dollars to his corporation, what owner wouldn't try it?
   20. jmurph Posted: May 07, 2014 at 09:30 AM (#4701892)
The positive comp is not so much the Pirates (who were battling the Cubs for last place when I looked)


No kidding. Not to mention after their great 2013 they appear to have plowed those playoff revenues right back into the team, jumping from an opening day payroll of $79.55 million in 2013 all the way up to $78.11 in 2014. Nice middle finger to the fans.

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