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Saturday, January 13, 2018

Astros land Gerrit Cole in trade with Pirates

Is it true this time?

Gerrit Cole may be finally on the move. After weeks of trade speculation, the Astros have acquired the hard-throwing right-hander from the Pirates in a deal centered around righty Joe Musgrove and third-base prospect Colin Moran, a source told MLB.com’s Adam Berry on Saturday.

The clubs have not confirmed the trade, which will send four players to Pittsburgh, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal reported the Pirates will also get right-handed reliever Michael Feliz and Minor League outfielder Jason Martin, the Astros’ No. 15-ranked prospect, as part of the deal.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:08 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, gerrit cole, pirates, trades

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   1. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5606073)
Swearsy-realsies?
   2. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:29 PM (#5606080)
Pittsburgh must really be buying Moran's season in AAA last year. Were I a Pirates fan, I'd be pretty annoyed right now.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5606087)
If this was the best package they could get, I don't know why you wouldn't hold him.

To not get a single top-100 prospect is pretty poor.
   4. DCA Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:48 PM (#5606097)
That's not really fair - Musgrove was a top 100 prospect at the time he jumped to MLB, and would be still if he were eligible. Moran and Feliz should have MLB careers too.

That said, this does seem a bit light.
   5. winnipegwhip Posted: January 13, 2018 at 07:54 PM (#5606101)
Moran and Feliz should have MLB careers too.


A lot of players can have major league careers if they are in the right organization. Any CFL player can be good enough for the NFL if his rights are owned by the Cleveland Browns.
   6. ptodd Posted: January 13, 2018 at 08:05 PM (#5606106)
Cole had some red flags since 2015. Injured in 2016. Decent start to 2017 but poor 2nd half and way to many HR balls for a team like the Yankees to consider for YS3

Only 2 years of control and will likely be more expensive next year no matter what happens this year

Decent trade seeing the Astros didnt give up much. Maybe Cole bounces back and adjusts to the juiced ball. If not, so be it. Pirates may know something about Coles health which prompted them to trade him for so little. Next Michael Pineda? We shall see.
   7. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 13, 2018 at 08:24 PM (#5606113)
Nutting was eager to clear Cole's salary and, due to the situation as #6 described, this was the best they could get.

I mean I was born a Pirates fan as it were, and I'll never fully get over it, but anyone who invests their time and money in supporting this team deserves the heartache they get. It was really fun the three years they managed to be successful despite their thief of an owner. Pretty soon their highly competent front office will move on and then it's probably another 20 years in the desert.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 13, 2018 at 08:33 PM (#5606115)
"The ball has been juiced" for 2.5 seasons now, it didn't bother him in the first 1.5 seasons. If the HR rate is now a real issue then that's probably (unfortunately) about diminishing talent not a juiced ball.

If one believes this is the new Cole then the return here seems OK given Musgrove has basically the same peripherals and 5 years of control. If Cole returns to form, this is not particularly good return. But Feliz has 4 years of control left and a lovely K-rate and a much better FIP than ERA (though still not impressive) and the Astros' #5 and #15 prospects at mlb.com. A #50ish prospect in place of Musgrove isn't going to make this look any better.
   9. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: January 13, 2018 at 08:34 PM (#5606117)
Nutting was eager to clear Cole's salary


$6.75M? Really? Sheesh!
   10. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: January 13, 2018 at 08:37 PM (#5606120)
Really.
   11. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: January 13, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5606133)
Hell. The Angels could have beat that deal. I'd rather have either one of the former Braves shortstop prospects the Angels signed than either of those arms the Astros gave up.
   12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5606141)
That's not really fair - Musgrove was a top 100 prospect at the time he jumped to MLB, and would be still if he were eligible.

#83 from BA in 2016. Not exactly what one would expect for Cole.

Still can't see how this is better than Yankees reported offer. Though I'm happy. I'd rather the Yanks hold on to Adams. Frazier seems inevitable trade bait.
   13. Srul Itza Posted: January 13, 2018 at 10:25 PM (#5606143)
I keep seeing headlines referring to Cole as an "ace".

He had one really good year, and some good peripherals. Doth that an ace maketh?
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 10:32 PM (#5606147)
Nutting was eager to clear Cole's salary


Horseshit. If they were that desperate to clear payroll, they could've just non-tendered Mercer, and nobody would've said #### about it.

This is either a strategic error (if they thought it was OK to trade Cole without getting any high-ceiling talents back in return) or bad scouting (if they thought that any of the guys in this deal were acceptable high-ceiling talents), or some combination thereof.

Either way, it's a #### deal, and if nobody was prepared to give up anything worth having for Cole, they should've just kept him.
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 10:36 PM (#5606149)
He had one really good year, and some good peripherals. Doth that an ace maketh?


If you look at the 2018 Steamer projections, Cole is in a five-way tie for the 15th-best SP in the majors (with Gray, Stroman, Keuchel, and Paxton), a tenth of a win ahead of Verlander.

Unless you have extremely high standards, that seems like an ace.
   16. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 10:36 PM (#5606151)
That's not really fair - Musgrove was a top 100 prospect at the time he jumped to MLB, and would be still if he were eligible.


Given the way he bombed out of the rotation last year, I'm not at all convinced that that's true.
   17. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 13, 2018 at 11:24 PM (#5606161)
Well there you go, now we know what Gerrit Cole is worth. ESPN:

New York held the line on including prospects Gleyber Torres, Justus Sheffield, Estevan Florial or Miguel Andujar in any trade, so the Pirates quickly had to shift their attention to other potential targets. One source said New York expressed a willingness to include outfielder Clint Frazier or pitcher Chance Adams in a package deal for Cole, but not both.
   18. Sunday silence Posted: January 14, 2018 at 02:13 AM (#5606183)
for what its worth: Musgrove was BA #32 prospect mid season 2016.
   19. Daniel in Toronto Posted: January 14, 2018 at 07:06 AM (#5606185)
Any predictions on other Pirates that may soon be traded?
   20. PreservedFish Posted: January 14, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5606194)
I've followed Musgrove closely because I own him in my DMB league. Prospect hawks were split on him. Some evaluators saw him as a really good prospect, mostly due to his elite control. Others really didn't pay very much attention to him - I think there was an assumption that his stuff would never let him progress beyond a #4 starter or so.

He's clearly the type of pitcher that is built for starting - he's got a lot of pitches and great control and his stuff doesn't seem to play up in the bullpen much. That means Houston had no place for him, and also that Pittsburgh is a perfect landing spot for him, you'd have to think.

What I wonder is if the Pirates preferred him to Martes or Paulino. Those two guys have much better stuff than Musgrove but may eventually be ticketed for bullpen careers. Given the hilarious depth of the Astros rotation (their 6-10 could beat some teams' 1-5) and recent bullpen acquisitions, it's tough to believe that they'd be off limits.
   21. Srul Itza At Home Posted: January 14, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5606211)
Unless you have extremely high standards, that seems like an ace.



I don't think the standards have to be all that high. I don't think that every team's Number One is necessarily an ACE. If a team has 5 really crappy starters, is the least crappiest automatically an ACE?

The Projection you cite is for 3.8 WAR. That is not even All Star Level.

If you want to say that the top 30 pitchers in a league are automatically ACE pitchers, then No. 30, even if he stinks is an ACE?

For me, an ACE is the guy whose starts you don't want to miss. The guy who would make the All Star team without being his team's "we got to name somebody" pick.

Is that Gerrit Cole for you?

   22. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: January 14, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5606212)
If you look at the 2018 Steamer projections, Cole is in a five-way tie for the 15th-best SP in the majors (with Gray, Stroman, Keuchel, and Paxton), a tenth of a win ahead of Verlander.

Unless you have extremely high standards, that seems like an ace.
FWIW, Bill James' little starting pitching ranking tool/toy has Cole starting the season ranked 38th. Which seems about right to me for where he is right now (it's entirely results oriented, no projection, so it's not factoring in age, likelihood of improvement, etc.).

I think "potential ace" fits him better.
   23. PreservedFish Posted: January 14, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5606216)
The Projection you cite is for 3.8 WAR. That is not even All Star Level.


In these days of 80 all-stars per year, it's gotta be.
   24. BDC Posted: January 14, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5606220)
There's also the colloquial sense of "ace" as simply a given team's best pitcher. If Cole was the Pirates' best pitcher over the past few years, then he was their ace, even if he's not going to be Houston's.

Looking very roughly at WAR, it seems there were about 20 teams last season who had a better best pitcher than Cole, and some of those had two or more better than Cole. He was only 43rd by WAR among starters. Still, if you were to take "aces" 20 through 24 in the majors last year, I think it would be a fairly acceptable pitching rotation, obviously not great but very deep.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: January 14, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5606231)
Still, if you were to take "aces" 20 through 24 in the majors last year, I think it would be a fairly acceptable pitching rotation, obviously not great but very deep.


I bet it would be great.

Looking very briefly at the Steamer projections, those aces would be guys like Clayton Richard or Michael Fullmer or Kevin Gausman or Luis Castillo. These fellows are in the 2.5 WAR neighborhood, so it's a 12.5 WAR rotation. The Indians's top 5 are projected for 15.8

It wouldn't be perceived to be great as all the value is in the quality of the 4th and 5th guys.
   26. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 14, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5606241)
Gerrit Cole is pretty much exactly the same as Sonny Gray for his career. I think the A's did quite a bit better in Mateo, Fowler, and Kaprielian.
   27. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: January 14, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5606245)
You must be thinking of a different Clayton Richard.
   28. Sunday silence Posted: January 14, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5606295)
The Projection you cite is for 3.8 WAR. That is not even All Star Level.


Its odd that you look at it this way, when the one thing that stands out about Cole's projection is:

He's hit 3.8 once (4.5 in his all star year 2015) in 5 years! Projection seems quite optimistic.

His closest other years are 2.5 as I recall.
   29. JRVJ Posted: January 14, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5606300)
From the Houston perspective, they gave up two not particularly important Major Leaguers, their 5th and 15th prospect for 2-years of a starter that could well be a No. 2 (though he may be a No. 3). Considering the dropoff from Keuchel/Verlander to Morton/McCullers, I definitely like what Houston has done.

I do wonder how this trade influences the rest of the AL. It's not a super slam dunk (i.e., the Astros aren't a super team because of this), but considering that the Astros were an extremely good team which just won an All-Time WS, this certainly betters their chance of turning into a Dynasty (BRef has the Astros with Cole already on the payroll, and with options and benefits at US$154MM. So financially, he does not hamstring should they need to do something else this year).

Also, there's a chance that the Cole trade will FINALLY set other dominoes tumbling, since Houston is probably out on Darwish, Arrieta, et. al......
   30. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5606303)
1) With AS staffs full of relievers, I'm not sure any pitcher below Kershaw is "all-star level" anymore.

2) Cole's "ace" status still comes down to the simple question "is the HR rate a fluke?" Steamer goes for "some of it."

3) I'm not sure folks understand how hard it is for pitchers to get 3.8 WAR nowadays. It takes about 190 innings of league average to get to 2.2 WAR but only a handful of guys make it to 190+ innings these days. All told only 23 pitchers made it to 3.8 bWAR last year ... of those 23, only 8 did it in 2016 too.

Ladies and gents, your true bWAR aces ... Verlander, Kershaw, Kluber, Sale, Scherzer, deGrom and ... wait for it ... Drew Pomeranz and Ervin Santana. The A's traded Pomeranz for Yonder Alonso (good trade Billy!) then the Padres traded him for Anderson Espinoza (top prospect who struggled in 2016 then his arm exploded). The Twins got Santana for the bargain price of 4/$55 with a 2019 option.

Steamer projects Pomeranz to 2.1 fWAR and Santana to 1.9 fWAR.

Maybe you prefer fWAR in which case only 15 pitchers made it to 3.8 WAR in 2017 ... including Jeff Samardzija with 208 IP of 94 ERA+. Guys who repeated in fWAR are Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, Kluber, Kershaw and Quintana.

So we have just 5 "aces" by Srul's definition -- Scherzer, Verlander, Sale, Kluber and Kershaw ... with the tiny issue that Verlander is projected to just 3.7 fWAR so he's in danger of becoming an ex-ace.
   31. JRVJ Posted: January 14, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5606311)
The argument of who is an Ace and who isn't an Ace is completely subjective, because the concept an "Ace" is fairly wide open (it's not even synonymous of "No. 1 starter").

Again, I think Cole is a good No. 2, and those are also very valuable pitchers (one of my current favorites, the Phils' Aaron Nola, is a very good No. 2. He is not, and probably will never be peak Halladay or Cliff Lee, but he's still pretty good).
   32. Srul Itza Posted: January 14, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5606321)
Its odd that you look at it this way, when the one thing that stands out about Cole's projection is:


I was giving the projection the benefit of the doubt.
   33. Walt Davis Posted: January 14, 2018 at 07:15 PM (#5606384)
Sometime recently I generated this list of Cole comps through age 26. Not entirely sure what the criteria were but looks like 50% SP, 2000-2017, through age 26, ERA+ 105-120 (Cole 112), might have been an IP range too (600-950? Cole 780).

Some very nice names -- Verlander and Scherzer most importantly, Quintana who I mentioned earlier, Cueto, Haren. Jered Weaver who was very good for another 5 years or so before plummeting. Lots of guys who got hurt or never took a step forward.

Note although he's middle of the list in ERA+, Cole has the best FIP of the bunch at 3.27. Some of that may be era (2014 and early 2015 were good times to be a pitcher) but Quintana 3.45, Gray 3.61, Verlander 3.78, Scherzer 3.85, Haren 3.97, Weaver 3.98.

If we look at ages 27-28, Verlander, Haren, Weaver, Lackey, Scherzer and Beckett all had huge years (10-13 bWAR) while Freddy Garcie, Cueto and Quintana were very good (about 8 WAR). Then it's just 2 guys at 5 WAR total, 3 guys at 4, 4 guys at 3 and then (mostly) guys who got hurt.

For age 26 itself, Cole is in the middle for bWAR. Verlander and Cueto had big breakouts (as did Ricky Romero, Kerry Wood and Matt Harrison) and Haren, Lackey and Q were all very good -- but Weaver was only a little better in bWAR, Beckett just behind him, Scherzer and Garcia down in the 1's and Sonny Gray terrible.

Looking at ages 25-26 doesn't help us any. The list is led by Kerry Wood, Matt Harrrison, Cueto, Romero and Gio. Kip Wells (7.5 WAR) is ahead of Verlander and Q. Cole is now well down the list at #23 ... but he's one behind Scherzer, one ahead of Garcia. If we go by FIP, he's dead middle -- well behind Q, Cueto, Verlander, Lackey; a bit ahead of Gray, Haren, Scherzer, Weaver and well ahead of Beckett and Garcia.

So some of the guys who were outstanding pitchers at 27-28 (and beyond) had already broken out by 25-26 ... but some hadn't. Some of the guys who had broken out at 25-26 went off cliffs; some others had already gone off. So far I think only one of the cliff divers can claim to have made it back (Kazmir).

Basically, I don't think we know much about projecting pitchers. It's primarily a question of health but even talent I don't think we're any good at knowing who's gonna take a step forward, who's gonna maintain and who's gonna fade into mediocrity. In this case at least, going by FIP might help a smidgen but not a lot. If we want to use K-rate, we've got to do some era adjustment -- Cole's 21.7% K-rate in 2016-17 is probably not nearly as impressive as Scherzer's 21.9% in 2010-11 or Haren/Lackey near-20% in the mid-2000s ... but still probably more promising Cueto's 18% in 2010-11 and maybe Garcia's 18% in 2002-3 and probably better than the sub-18 guys who comprise a large chunk of the cliff-divers.

Anyway, sure, we're more likely talking Beckett, Garcia as realistic healthy upsides (moreso than Verlander, Scherzer) and probably Garza, Tillman as realistic mostly healthy downsides and then the high chance of injury. That's already a range of 4 to 10 WAR over two seasons plus a good chance you get only 50-75% of that due to injury, already not overly useful.

Every time you trade for a pitcher, sign a pitcher, count on a young pitcher you've developed, you're in high risk/reward territory and you have very little to go on in terms of risk reduction. The Astros now have at least 4 guys who could be very good (V, Cole, Keuchel, McCullers) or could all get broken; the Pirates have probably reduced reward (especially over 2018-19) while spreading the risk around. The Astros almost certainly have a much better chance at 10 WAR over 2 years but the Pirates might have the better chance at 4 plus they'd have another 3 years of Musgrove, 2 years of Feliz and 4-6 of the prospects.

That said, the Sox trading Q for Jimenez and Cease seem to have gotten a lot more talent in return than the Pirates did. It was however 3.5 years of Q vs. 2 of Cole.
   34. Blastin Posted: January 15, 2018 at 08:42 AM (#5606528)
Cole seems like a fangraphs projection/FIP king more than a true stud. He has upside but I'm not sold on him being the 2015 version repeatedly.
   35. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 09:00 AM (#5606533)
The important thing is that the Pirates organization is happy with the talent they got back in the trade. This was the deal that they wanted and I hope it works out for all parties concerned.
   36. Zonk, Genius of the Stables Posted: January 15, 2018 at 09:19 AM (#5606537)
That said, the Sox trading Q for Jimenez and Cease seem to have gotten a lot more talent in return than the Pirates did. It was however 3.5 years of Q vs. 2 of Cole.


3.5 years at an astoundingly good price -- 8.5 mil in 2018 and team options at 10.5 and 11.5 for 2019 and 2020.

Looks like the estimates on Cole's arb (if they don't cut a deal) appear to be 7.5 mil for 2018. Back of the napkin says about 14-15 mil for the last year of arb.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 09:24 AM (#5606541)
That means Houston had no place for him, and also that Pittsburgh is a perfect landing spot for him, you'd have to think.


The Pirates already have something like five hundred #4/#5 starters on hand, which is yet another reason the deal doesn't look like a good one to me. Though obviously the lack of upside is the primary factor.

I'm not even 100% convinced that Musgrove makes the rotation this spring, though you have to think they'll give him every possible benefit of the doubt to try and justify the trade.
   38. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5606542)
Looks like the estimates on Cole's arb (if they don't cut a deal) appear to be 7.5 mil for 2018. Back of the napkin says about 14-15 mil for the last year of arb


Cole and the Pirates already reached an agreement for 2018 before he was traded. He's getting $6.75M.

Gerrit Cole is pretty much exactly the same as Sonny Gray for his career. I think the A's did quite a bit better in Mateo, Fowler, and Kaprielian.


Cole has been better than Gray over the last three years. Better K rate, better BB rate, better HR rate, and more innings pitched.

I agree that the A's Gray package is better than the one the Pirates got for Cole, though. Yet another reason to be disappointed.
   39. Khrushin it bro Posted: January 15, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5606635)
Gray had an extra half year of control during a playoff run and was in the middle of a good stretch of pitching (around 6 starts under 2.00 ERA if I remember correctly). That might have increased his value a bit over his general projections.
   40. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5606668)
Cole has been better than Gray over the last three years. Better K rate, better BB rate, better HR rate, and more innings pitched.

3 years is particularly favorable to Cole, but still it's 527 IP, 117 ERA+ vs Gray 487.1 IP, 111 ERA+. 4 years you have 706.1 IP, 113 ERA+ for Gray, 665 IP, 113 ERA+ for Cole.

Cole has the better peripherals but 1) they're not showing up in run prevention, 2) has played in the easier league, and FIP is not context adjusted, and 3) just had his worst season.

Cole's probably a little better, but they're very comparable.
   41. Walt Davis Posted: January 15, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5606816)
I don't know why folks like that A's package. Fowler never made a top 100 (though probably would have made mid-season 2017) and had a lousy walk rate in the minors and was seriously injured. Mateo has been in the top 100 for two years without making real progress but did have a nice year at AA last year. Kapriellan was a sub-50 prospect who missed all of 2017. I understand there's some upside if Kapriellan makes a full recovery but it's not an attractive package.

On Mateo, it looks like the Yanks were starting to transition him away from SS ... or at least towards utility, with a reasonable number of starts in CF and 2B. The A's stuck him back at SS. Any scuttlebutt on his likelihood of sticking at SS?
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 15, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5606905)
I don't know why folks like that A's package.

Upside.
   43. Walt Davis Posted: January 16, 2018 at 12:43 AM (#5607072)
Upside.

No, that's possibly a reason to like that package more than this package. But they're both lousy returns of blah players. That there's a 10% chance Kapriellan becomes as good as Gray and a 10% chance that Dustin Fowler becomes as good as Dexter doesn't mean it's likable. It's like choosing (in 2018) between Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland. Even if the answer is clear, they're both bad options.
   44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 16, 2018 at 09:16 AM (#5607126)
No, that's possibly a reason to like that package more than this package. But they're both lousy returns of blah players. That there's a 10% chance Kapriellan becomes as good as Gray and a 10% chance that Dustin Fowler becomes as good as Dexter doesn't mean it's likable. It's like choosing (in 2018) between Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland. Even if the answer is clear, they're both bad options.

Well, when half the teams don't want to compete, and just want to pocket shared revenue while they "rebuild", you're going to have crappy returns in vet for prospect trades.

Seriously. You've got only 7 of 15 AL teams traying this year (NYY, BOS, TOR, CLE, MIN, HOU, LAA). Nobody else gives a crap about winning.

In the NL it's a bit better. Only MIA, PIT, CIN, and SD are flat out not trying to add talent. With PHI, ATL and NYM kind of in the gray zone.

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