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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, May 30, 2009
All of a sudden Hank Bauer looks like a genius! Ok…maybe not.
What’s remarkable to me is that a decision Bob Geren made in New York, to bring the infield in with runners at second and third and nobody out in the 2nd inning of a 0-0 game (Brett Gardner vs. Dana Eveland), which I thought was evidence of a manager who had no strategic understanding of the game, is now only the THIRD dumbest decision that I think Geren has made. I thought walking Russell Branyan in Seattle (ahead of Jose Lopez’ game-winning hit) to load the bases was even more moronic, but tonight Geren outdid even himself, ordering an intentional walk to Chris Davis to load the bases in the 1st inning of Game 2.
Chris Davis had struck out all four ABs in Game 1, and finished the double-header 0-7 with 6 Ks. He has now struck out a major league leading 77 times, including 23 times in his last 34 ABs. He is batting .194 and will likely be optioned to AAA. In sum, he is essentially, this season and especially right now, the equivalent of a pitcher batting. I was truly in disbelief when I saw this move being made.
I’m sorry. Bob Geren is simply not fit to manage a major league baseball team. Even stupid managers don’t make some of the decisions he has made - and it’s not like his team plays good fundamental baseball, or exudes any noticeable intensity or joy in the dugout or on the field. A’s players - who are both young and limited in talent and need every advantage they can get - and A’s fans, deserve better.
Repoz
Posted: May 30, 2009 at 12:34 PM | 21 comment(s)
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1. Danny Posted: May 30, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3199944)Nico's results-oriented, hindsight criticism is stupid--especially since he doesn't understand the concept of platoon advantages or the fact that what Chris Davis did in the first game of a double header should have virtually no impact on Geren's decision of whether to pitch to him in the second game.
On the Davis problem, you KNOW things are going poorly when a flyout gets applauded. It was mocking and derisive...but I joined in. I can't see the Rangers promoting Smoak yet. Blalock shouldn't be playing first on an everyday basis. Jones isn't really an option defensively on more than a spot basis. I hate to say it, but I think the Rangers need to look outside the organization for a one-year stopgap at 1B if they stay in contention.
In 90 career MLB AB, 20 against LHP? He has a perfectly normal split in the minors (.974 OPS v. LHP, .863 v. RHP). And runners were on 2nd and 3rd, which is generally the place to IBB a guy.
There was one out.
You are right about the split. I should have looked at MiL numbers.
Like I said, it didn't set off my "strange move" alarm at the game. Maybe I need to get it serviced...
Well, a pitcher with ridiculous power if he actually gets a hold of one. But certainly not the guy you'd intentionally walk.
I don't know how much blame should go to Geren or if Beane should take the blame. Beane loaded up on older, declining, injury prone hitters in an effort to improve the offense. He lost part of that gamble as their collective decline has left the team as bad off hitting as last year, but in doing so he also took away one thing the recent A's actually had going for them: A strong defense.
This is a lot of hyperbole. The old, injury prone players brought in are limited to two: Giambi and Nomar. And Nomar was only supposed to be a utility infielder. Cabrera is older, but he's not injury prone and didn't really seem to be declining. Holliday is in his prime. Not exactly loading up.
As for the defense, going from Barton to Giambi is definitely a minus. But replacing Crosby with Cabrera and Cust/Brown with Holliday should have been defensive upgrades.
Although it's not likely he can sustain it, Branyan is hitting .316 with tremendous power, walking him in a do-or-die situation to get to Felipe Lopez seems reasonable. Walking Davis early in the game does seem curious. But right or wrong, these decisions represent fractions of a run; he'd have to be wrong on a huge percentage of these to make a big impact.
I don't have any opinion on whether or not Geren is a good manager, and I have no feel for what he does on a regular basis, or what kind of long-term, big-impact decisions he has made for the club. Bill James suggested years ago that managers literally make dozens of decisions every day; we need to look beyond singular moves to get a good idea of how good a manager is.
Intentional walks are almost always a bad idea. They are really dumb early in a game. They are unthinkable when given to a hitter like Chris Davis.
And Teagarden my have no power but he's carrying a 350 OBP following a 390 OBP in the minors. It makes no sense to load the bases to pitch to that guy.
OBP being the reason why intentional walks to load the bases are almost always a bad idea.
Really? I thought intentional walks--when used--are generally breakeven.
I think the IBB becomes much less absurd when you consider:
1) Davis projects as a better hitter than Teagarden (ROS ZIPS has .339 and .323 wOBA, respectively).
2) Davis had the platoon advantage; Teagarden did not.
3) ROS ZIPS has Teagarden with a .313 OBP, and would be lower against a RHP.
4) The pitcher, Edgar Gonzalez, has a huge platoon split for his career. LHB have hit .323/.393/.597 against him in ~600 PA, which is .200 higher than his OPS against RHB.
5) The A's offense sucks, especially when Buck, Cust, and Suzuki are all out of the lineup. While the IBB may have increased the run expectancy, it likely decreased the chances of scoring.
I don't understand why some people think the manager has no bearing on how the team performs.
If you exclude intentionally walking the #8 guy to get to the pitcher, they are, on the whole-as actually used, much worse than break even.
Never underestimate the desire of sabermetric types to flatter sabermetric-friendly teams, in the hopes of obtaining gainful employment. (See, e.g., the ongoing Baseball Prospectus - Cleveland Indians love affair.)
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