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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Athletics, Twins Swap Tommy Milone, Sam Fuld

Is “guys who read Moneyball” the new market inefficiency?

The Twins have acquired lefty Tommy Milone from the A’s in exchange for outfielder Sam Fuld, the teams have announced.

Milone… lost his rotation spot with the Athletics earlier this month when the team acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel… Milone had pitched to a solid 3.55 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 38.4 percent fly-ball rate in 96 1/3 innings this season. He owns a 3.84 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 36.8 percent ground-ball rate in 468 2/3 innings for the Nationals and Athletics. He is eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign…

The 32-year-old Fuld has been excellent for the Twins in 2014, slashing .274/.370/.354 with a homer, a dozen steals (in 15 attempts) and standout defense in both left and center field. In addition to platooning with [Jonny] Gomes, he can serve as a center field option for the A’s with Craig Gentry on the disabled list and Coco Crisp currently ailing. Fuld is a career .240/.323/.337 hitter and can be controlled via arbitration through the 2016 campaign.

The District Attorney Posted: July 31, 2014 at 11:45 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: athletics, sam fuld, tommy milone, trades, transactions, twins

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   1. DL from MN Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:29 PM (#4761394)
Love the trade for the Twins. They've needed a lefty starting pitcher for a while. Only wish the Twins OF defense was better. Right now they have a SS flanked by twin DHs.
   2. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:36 PM (#4761402)
I wonder if that trade means Aaron Hicks is going to get called back up--they're really thin in the outfield right now, with Danny Santana the only one with any experience in center field.
   3. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 31, 2014 at 12:38 PM (#4761406)
....Though, just checked, and for some reason the Twins have just promoted Kennys Vargas, who's stretched defensively even at the designated hitter position.
   4. PreservedFish Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:09 PM (#4761470)
I think that Milone was always a Twin at heart.
   5. boteman Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4761509)
I don't know what happened to Milone, he seemed to fall off a cliff, or at least a sand berm at the ocean's edge. He was never any great shakes, but a serviceable lefty is always in demand.

He will live in Nationals history as hitting a home run in his first plate appearance, or first game, or something stupendous that we'll never forget, so at least there's that.
   6. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:31 PM (#4761519)
In a blockbuster deal to end all blockbuster deals, Major League Baseball announced today that all 30 MLB teams have traded every single big-league player for everyone else. "We're not exactly sure who's on what team yet," said MLB commissioner Bug Selig while taking his daily bath in the blood of virgins. "It's gonna take at least of couple of weeks for it all to calm down. The only thing we know for sure is that Bryce Harper, Yasiel Puig and Mike Trout are all on the Brewers' roster now."
   7. SoCalDemon Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:36 PM (#4761535)
I don't know what happened to Milone, he seemed to fall off a cliff, or at least a sand berm at the ocean's edge. He was never any great shakes, but a serviceable lefty is always in demand.


Umm...he had a 3.55 ERA/106 ERA+ this year.
   8. andrewberg Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4761546)
And the A's #7-8 starter slots in nicely as the Twins #3 starter.
   9. DL from MN Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:44 PM (#4761557)
I think Milone is the #2 behind Hughes right now. Hughes / Milone / Gibson / Correia / Trevor May until they can dump Kevin Correia.
   10. andrewberg Posted: July 31, 2014 at 01:46 PM (#4761562)
Milone-Gibson, Gibson-Milone, tomato tomato.

Can't wait for the Correia dump (as in, when they get rid of him, not what he does on the mound every 5th day).
   11. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 31, 2014 at 02:06 PM (#4761621)
I'm gonna miss Kevin Correia. I can't recall the last time I was that excited by a free agent signing.
   12. PreservedFish Posted: July 31, 2014 at 02:10 PM (#4761632)
I'm gonna miss Kevin Correia. I can't recall the last time I was that excited by a free agent signing.


For sale: baby shoes, never worn.
   13. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: July 31, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4761644)
I'm gonna miss Kevin Correia. I can't recall the last time I was that excited by a free agent signing.


Quoting myself from the Lounge of December 11, 2012:

I've been away for the past two days. Have I missed anything?

Oh yeah, that's right. LOUNGE FAVORITE KEVIN ####### CORREIA HAS SIGNED WITH THE TWINS!!!
   14. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 03:25 PM (#4761767)
For sale: baby shoes, never worn.


BTF version, I suppose, would be

For sale: gift basket, never given.
   15. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4762032)
The A's moves' in totum are confusing to me. They're virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs, so these moves are sort of pointless en masse. You cannot build a team that has an overwhelming advantage in the playoffs. It simply does not happen. These are good teams they're competing against, and it's a matter of luck/randomness/chance who survives. The best playoff team has probably a 55-45 edge at best against its opponent, or not much more than that.

Which other team virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs has made a flurry of moves at the trade deadline? Perhaps this is done all the time and I've just missed it. But Billy Beane's #### isn't guaranteed to work in the playoffs even after the dust settles.

In fact the entire trade deadline thing from the contender's perspective is sort of pointless to me. You're talking about two months of games, and even an MVP level of performance is only worth 2.5 WAR in that time. And who's to say you're going to get an MVP level performance from the players you acquire? You might, but there's not much less of a chance that you'll get an MVP level performance from the players you already have. Two months is a fairly small sample that is easily swamped by variance.
   16. DL from MN Posted: July 31, 2014 at 05:28 PM (#4762037)
Twins extend Kurt Suzuki - 2 years $12M and a vesting option. Not a bad deal for either side but they're paying full price for him this time.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 05:28 PM (#4762038)
The A's moves' in totum are confusing to me. They're virtually guaranteed to make the playoffs, so these moves are sort of pointless en masse. You cannot build a team that has an overwhelming advantage in the playoffs. It simply does not happen. These are good teams they're competing against, and it's a matter of luck/randomness/chance who survives. The best playoff team has probably a 55-45 edge at best against its opponent, or not much more than that.

They have the Angels hot on their heels. Winning the division vs. being a WC doubles your chance of winning the WS.
   18. DL from MN Posted: July 31, 2014 at 05:29 PM (#4762040)
repeat
   19. andrewberg Posted: July 31, 2014 at 05:29 PM (#4762041)
I don't know if I would say full price for Suzuki. If they bought 2 years of 2014 Suzuki, it is a good deal. If they bought 2 years of 2011-2013 Suzuki, it is a bad deal.
   20. Ray (RDP) Posted: July 31, 2014 at 08:42 PM (#4762177)
They have the Angels hot on their heels. Winning the division vs. being a WC doubles your chance of winning the WS.


I guess... I mean, "doubles" is doing a lot of work here. You're going from 6% to 12%.
   21. Squash Posted: July 31, 2014 at 09:13 PM (#4762191)
You cannot build a team that has an overwhelming advantage in the playoffs. It simply does not happen. These are good teams they're competing against, and it's a matter of luck/randomness/chance who survives. The best playoff team has probably a 55-45 edge at best against its opponent, or not much more than that.

I think the idea is that the very best way to advance in the playoff is to get a few shutdown pitching performances per round. Having better pitchers increases those odds. They still aren't overwhelming, but say the A's and Angels stay hot on each other the entire summer, forcing them to keep using all their best pitchers all the way through. As a result when the rotation comes up for Game 2 of the playoffs (assuming you avoided the WC knock-out) you have to start your #4 guy. You're likely a lot better off if that guy's Smardjiga or whatever than if it's an exhausted Jesse Chavez. The A's have had to start that guy way, way too many times in the Beane era (Straily, Lidle, Heredia, etc.) and it's screwed them every time.
   22. valuearbitrageur Posted: August 01, 2014 at 03:31 AM (#4762328)
The top of the rotation pitches a higher percentage of innings in playoffs than they do regular season. If your first 3 starters are stronger than everyone else's can be a huge advantage come playoff time.
   23. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 01, 2014 at 03:45 AM (#4762329)
Yeah, the Braves won a lot of World Series that way.

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