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They can have Dan Uggla. That should help.

I couldn't provide any quotes from after the Winter Meetings because Towers has been on vacation since.

Well, no ####.

You spend a year badmouthing your best player, and you don't get a fair return when you trade him.

Sorry about the submission foulup.

I love this site, and appreciate very much how Jim keeps it running. But truly the submission process kinda sucks.

Sorry about the submission foulup.

I love this site, and appreciate very much how Jim keeps it running. But truly the submission process kinda sucks.

Don't be so hard on yourself. Most of us don't RTFA anyway.

He brought up the fact that the organization has no bad contracts.

Montero, cough, cough.

Do they have any good contracts?

Miguel Montero is a bad contract?
I haven't paid close attention but isn't he one of the better catchers in the NL? Signed for roughly $12 mil a year until he's 33.

Maybe I'm vastly under-rating catcher decline phases, but if he was a free agent this off-season and my GM signed him for 5/60 I'd think it worth the risk.

montero is solidly packed with grit and he's nice and gamey

well some deodorant should take care of the gamey thing

no meat honey

kirkie-poo and kev like em all nice n gamey

I just don't get the hand wringing over this not being a fair return.
The DBacks got a Major League 3B ( in a very very very thin market for 3B ), who even if you look past the extravagant defensive numbers is a cinch to be a 3 to 4 WAR player. Further they got a basket of prospects, of whom one has already pitched respectably in the Majors, and the other is better than their haul for Bauer.
Put it another way, Delgado is probably a similar if not superior prospect to Bauer.

I think people are overvaluing "name" prospects. They have a higher probability of getting significant value from this trade than the Seattle basket of prospects. All the prospects being successful like in the Teixeira trade is more an exception than the rule.
Another issue is that people are undervaluing how weak the 3B market is. Might be the weakest position in the Majors at this point of time.

Montero, cough, cough.

Do they have any good contracts?

I was critical of that contract when it was signed as being too long.

But if you believe Fangraphs dollar values have any merit whatsoever, he "earned" 42 million over the last two seasons. Based on where the dollars and the market is going with all the new TV money, I am slowly revising my thinking on that contract. 10-12 WAR over the first 4 years of the deal probably will end up justifying the 60 million, and if he is still in one piece by year 5 it will be a bonus year. 10-12 WAR over the next 4 years is no gimme, but he did put up 9.3 in just the last two seasons, and 13.4 over the last 4.

Of course Gibson doesn't need to let him go out and catch 140+ games like he did last year. Thats not helping anybody.

Honkie Kong

While Prado is a good player, he is not a "cinch" to be a 3-4 WAR player. He probably projects as 3-4 WAR, but thats not the same thing as being a cinch.

First of all last year was only his second season playing over 140 games, and he is going to be 30 next season.

Secondly he is only 1 year removed from putting the finishing touches on a season of 88 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR.

Third, and maybe most importantly, he is a FA after 2013. The D Backs have not signed him to an extension yet. And if they do, they are likely to be pushed into an overpay situation for a 4 year deal ages 30-33.

If you think that is a fair return for a 25 year old player who already made two all star teams at age 21 & 23 and is signed to a very reasonable contract for ages 25-27 then I don't think you've really thought it through.

If you think that is a fair return for a 25 year old player who already made two all star teams at age 21 & 23 and is signed to a very reasonable contract for ages 25-27 then I don't think you've really thought it through.

Making two all star teams is irrelevant to the discussion. Upton was really good at ages 21 and 23, and he has a higher ceiling than Prado. That is not arguable. But Prado also has had two superlative years ( 2010 and 2012 ), and his 2011 is similar to Upton's 2012 ( Injury dampened production ).
Their projected performance for 2013 is similar ( with Prado coming at a cheaper price ).
Upton has two extra years of control ( at $14.5 mil ). Prado is looking for an extension reportedly at an AAV of $12 mil. So the exchange is not lopsided monetarily. And ages 30-33 may not be peak, but they are also not the end of the career years with modern tech / meds.

So it boils down to the future value that Upton provides for two years. Arizona has more options in the outfield as compared to 3B. Add in the value provided by Delgado,and 3 lottery tickets ( Spruill being a bit more ), and the value comparison is not lop sided.
The disconnect is in name value. Justin Upton is a big name. Walker/Franklin are the "name" prospects de jour. So there is a feeling that the DBacks didn't get value back. Prado is being dinged for being overall good player instead of having one standout skill. And his defence is being overlooked. He is, anecdotally and statistically, a very good defender.
This might not be the "sexy" deal, and it is not a great trade, but it is fairly equivalent future value being traded, considered over the next 3 years.

Lets reset.

Justin Upton's WORST seasom OPS+ (107) is only 2 points less than Prado's career average (109)

Prado's career best season OPS+ of 121, in half a season, occured at age 24 in 2008 and is only 4 points higher than Upton's career average.

Justin Upton's career highs in OPS+ in 2009 and 2011, 129 & 141 respectively, are far higher than anything Prado has ever approached.

Unless you COMPLETELY ignore the age factor, AND make the assumption that Justin Upton peaked in 2011 at age 23 and will never reach that level again, there can be no argument, Upton is the far better bet as an offensive talent going forward, and especially for his age 25-27 seasons vs. Prado's early 30's years.

And then there is the flat out "Break Out" factor. I don't know what the odds are of an Upton "Break Out" season....i.e.....a Kemp like season circa 2011, or a McCutchen like season circa 2012. But I can tell you this: Upton's numbers through age 24 compare favorably or at least equally to both Kemp and McCutchens through age 24. There is a not insignificant chance that Upton breaks out to that level of player. Prado on the other hand just had his career season in terms of games played, WAR, etc. Thats it. Thats the breakout. It is highly unlikely there is more than that.

Now..... finally, you want to talk "all around" game. Well, take a closer look at Prado's defensive metrics. Take a look specifically what happens to his UZR when you take away his numbers in Left Field. His LF numbers inflate his WAR totals quite a bit. And he isn't going to play left field in Arizona. He is going to primarily play 3b.

Upton, while a slightly down year with the glove according to UZR in 2012, still is clearly in the black for his career in RF.

Baserunning: Upton blows Prado away.

If you want to talk all around game, stop treating Upton like he is a station to station runner, with no speed to track down balls in the outfield, and an offensive game that relies solely on power. In fact, Upton's had far better on base percentage than Prado, runs better, creates nearly as much value with the glove in most seasons, has cut his strikeout rates to about league average.....and in years when he isn't playing with a freaking dislocated thumb is a 30-40 homer threat.

In short, Martin Prado is the type of good role player you put around a Justin Upton, not in place of.

Delgado is probably a similar if not superior prospect to Bauer.

Honkie Kong is a funny handle for Senora Delgado. Because that's the only person who could possibly believe this.

finally, you want to talk "all around" game. Well, take a closer look at Prado's defensive metrics. Take a look specifically what happens to his UZR when you take away his numbers in Left Field. His LF numbers inflate his WAR totals quite a bit. And he isn't going to play left field in Arizona. He is going to primarily play 3b.

I don't think this is a "finally" clause. Defence matters. Taking away Prado's contribution in LF is equivalent of saying lets take out 2011 offensive numbers from Justin Upton's history of performance. And it is not just at LF. prado has rated above average in all positions he has played ( 2B, 3B, LF, ignoring SS as real small sample ). And Prado's best defensive position is 3B. The reason we are even considering regressing those numbers are the error bars around defence ( which ZiPS already does ).

Now to Upton's breakout potential. That is what the Braves are paying Delgado plus lottery tickets for. It is significant which is why the trade is happening in the first place. Aging curves are not the be-all and end all. Being on the lower end of the age curve is why there is a higher breakout potential for Upton. Prado being older is why we assume his numbers are more likely to stay the same or get worse in the near future. But its all a probability game. In terms of floor, both players are equivalent. Because a player had a monster season at a young age doesn't mean is bound to have a better season. Sometimes players peak early. Or the thumb injury might have a long term deleterious effect. There is no given that Upton is going to improve on a 3 WAR season.

And Upton is a player you build around is a different way of saying "he might breakout and have a monster season". In baseball, a franchise player is a tag more useful for sales and merchandising ( You can argue this is where the trade is skewed for the Braves ). In terms of value, I am sure teams will settle for 8 3 WAR positional players if given the option.

In short, Martin Prado is the type of good role player
And this is wrong. Martin prado is a full time above average starting in the Majors.

Honkie Kong is a funny handle for Senora Delgado. Because that's the only person who could possibly believe this.

I am sure Senora Delgado has better things to worry about than Senor Delgado's prospect rankings.
I have seen Delgado pitch in the Majors, I followed his minor league stats, and he is a pretty good pitcher. Barely seen Bauer. But looking at minor league numbers, they look similar. Higher K rate for Bauer but Delgado has a higher GB rate, and has already pitched successfully in the majors. Dunno what the minor league park adjustments are.
The prospect gurus like both prospects, and point out both have holes in their resume.
You ofcourse are welcome to your snide remarks.

Defence matters ? Really ? Thanks for that.

Let me try to simplify it for you.

The only reason that you think that Prado is even in Upton's zip code is because of last years WAR total. And last years WAR total has a HUGE chunk of left field defense in it. And he's not going to play left field. I didn't say he was below average at the other positions. Thats a massive misdirect on your part.

Anyway..........over the next 3 seasons if Prado is within 6 WAR of Upton in total value, I'll eat my hat. And if Prado is a not a D Back after 2013, I win this argument too.

The D Backs did not get enough for Upton. Prado is role player. Role player does not mean he is bench player. But if you think that Prado is a CENTERPIECE player, than you really don't understand the game.

Upton has been very close to being a centerpiece type player twice now at very young ages, and is just now entering his prime.

I don't know how much clearer this can be.

Do you think Prado is a centerpiece, middle of the order, potential 140-160 OPS+, or even MVP candidate type player ? Really ? Ask yourself that question without reflexively looking at his one "superlative" season of WAR, which was heavily inflated by numbers at a postion he isn't going to play anymore.

Ah....screw it. You are right. Prado is equal value to Upton. And Delgado is better than Bauer or Skaggs. And the other throw in scrubs are actually potential major league caliber starters that are going to bring value to the D Backs.

Book mark the thread.

6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 30, 2013 at 10:51 PM (#4358717)Sorry about the submission foulup.

I love this site, and appreciate very much how Jim keeps it running. But truly the submission process kinda sucks.

Don't be so hard on yourself. Most of us don't RTFA anyway.

So mean, snapper. You are now promoted to 41st greatest monster.

Honkie Kong is a funny handle for Senora Delgado. Because that's the only person who could possibly believe this.

Eh? I think HK gets a good deal right about Delgado. He's been underrated as a prospect for a while now. He's been a better pitcher than Julio Teheran, to throw a "name" name into the mix, for two years now. He was excellent in Atlanta until he tired down the stretch. He may not project as a #1 or #2, but I certainly think he's a solid #3 in the Bigs.

And it's categorically wrong to hold Prado's 2011 against him. Dude played the second half recovering from a month long MRSA infection (that he got in the old Marlins visitor's clubhouse, apparently.) That is not a history of injury to concern yourself about, and his numbers from that season were clearly pushed down by the fact that he went two months where he couldn't work out.

I think it's clear the Braves won that trade. Upton's upside is just so huge it's a win for Atlanta. But I do think people are underselling Delgado a bit. As for Prado, I look forward to the Braves resigning him as a free agent next winter.

So mean, snapper. You are now promoted to 41st greatest monster.

I was being serious. I wouldn't have known the link was broken if he hadn't said so.

As a Giants' fan, I am happy to see Justin Upton out of the division.
As a Giants' fan, I am unhappy to see Justin Upton in the playoffs.

Although I guess if he really blossoms into a HOFer, I'd rather have him on the Braves. Stupid Diamondbacks should have sent him to the Yankees.

And last years WAR total has a HUGE chunk of left field defense in it. And he's not going to play left field.

This is actually a pro-Prado argument, given his skill at third.

I think Atlanta won the trade as well, but HK's argument is reasonable. Underdiscussed: Upton makes more than Prado - those $ have value as well...

This is actually a pro-Prado argument, given his skill at third.

Prado's a plus defender in LF and at 3B. He's a net negative defender at 2B.

Right...
Am I missing something? He's not going to play second for Arizona...

I think it's fair to say that: (a) the dbacks shouldn't have traded Upton--they should have built around him; (b) if they were going to trade him, they should have gotten a top tier prospect with star potential in return; but (c) Prado and Delgado are solid players who are likely to provide a lot of value to the dbacks. This isn't trading Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells (not that anyone would do that).

Exactly.

No, Prado is going to be AZ's starting 3B, which is the position that maximizes his value IMHO. He's a high quality defensive 3B who can hit. He loses some value if he's playing LF, even though he plays that position very well. His offensive value at 2B is undermined by his inability to field that position very well.

I'm not arguing against you, just offering some insight into Prado's detailed skill set as a Braves fan who has watched him intently for years. A lot of non-Braves fans probably think he's a standard bore "utility guy" who is equally useful in all three positions, and that's not the case.

If Prado was signed reasonably for 3 years, this deal would be perfectly defensible. I'll still wouldn't have done it if I were Ariz., but it would be much more reasonable.

The real black mark against Ariz. is the year + of running down Upton in the press, and dangling him in trades. That had to seriously undermine their leverage, and reduce the value they got in return. 100% pointless and 100% self-inflicted.

No, Prado is going to be AZ's starting 3B, which is the position that maximizes his value IMHO. He's a high quality defensive 3B who can hit. He loses some value if he's playing LF, even though he plays that position very well. His offensive value at 2B is undermined by his inability to field that position very well.

Is this directed to me? 'Cause that was my point in the first place.

snapper/32: Yes.

The only reason that you think that Prado is even in Upton's zip code is because of last years WAR total.

ZIP codes don't work like that.

RDF.

ZIP codes don't work like that.

Thank you. A king among men!

Robothal reports a four-year extension for Prado, so all hail Gritmaster Towers.

D-backs just announced a three-year extension for Prado. No terms yet.

Well, either Robothal or the team is wrong.

I'm seeing it's $40MM over 4.

I think it's a 4 year deal, but he wasn't signed yet for 2013.

I think it's a 4 year deal, but he wasn't signed yet for 2013.

That would make sense. He was still in arb for 2013, so 2013-17 is a 4 year deal. 4/40 isn't bad for Prado. Shouldn't lose that much value as he ages into his decline years.

The Braves are getting 3 years of Upton for $38.5M, while the D'Backs get 4 years of Prado for $40M. Obviously there's more to evaluating the deal than that, but the extension does make the trade look a lot stronger for Arizona now than it did at first.

The Braves are getting 3 years of Upton for $38.5M, while the D'Backs get 4 years of Prado for $40M. Obviously there's more to evaluating the deal than that, but the extension does make the trade look a lot stronger for Arizona now than it did at first.

AZ could have kept Upton and signed Prado as a free agent for 3/30 next season.

Right, and thus the caveat, "Obviously there's more to evaluating the deal than that." Arizona would have been banking on Prado hitting the open market, though, and that was far from a sure thing. Atlanta had expressed interest in signing him to an extension, though they were still a distance apart at the time of the trade. Atlanta also could have traded Prado elsewhere, and another team could have signed him to an extension.

There is value to a bird in the hand. Whether that value made the trade worthwhile is the question.

Plus they're getting four relatively cheap years of a guy who has a good chance of being a decent starter. Delgado could be worth 8-12 WAR during that period.

Would I have done that trade? No. But four years of Delgado and four of Prado isn't a bad return for three of Upton.

Put it another way, Delgado is probably a similar if not superior prospect to Bauer.

I saw Delgado pitch once, not impressed.

Bauer was BA's #9 prospect coming into 2012, Delgado #46

Bauer in AA had a 3.18 ERA against a league average of 4.20
Delgado in AA had a 4.08 ERA against a league average of about 4.05

Bauer in AAA had a 2.85 ERA against a league average of 5.13
Delgado had a 4.09 ERA against a league average of 3.96

In AA/AAA Bauer had a one k per 9 more than Delgado and a better K/BB (both men walked more men than you'd like to see)

Delgado has to date pitched better than Bauer in the MLB, but Bauer has all of 16 MLB innings, Bauer's K rate has seemingly translated, Delgado's has not. Delgado's peripherals in 2011 were terrible but the BABIP fairy blessed him that year (.220)

His peripherals in 2012 were more in line with his minor league track record, his BABIP was around average, the result was a 92 ERA+, to me based upon his whole career looks like about what he is, 4th/5th starter, get his walks down a tad, K rate up a tad, 3rd starter territory.

Bauer to me looks like he could be a 2 or 1, but he's gotta get the walks under control.

I can't see that Delgado is nearly a valuable PROSPECT as Bauer at this point, which isn't to say there's no chance that Delgado could have a better career, sure he could, he could have a bunch of years as a LAIM and Bauer can walk 5-6 guys per game for a few years frustrating the crap out of his teams

Also Delgado has nowhere to start in 2013 unless it's in Reno. He's no better than 6th on the depth chart and in my opinion could be as low as 8th. Once Hudson is back that becomes 9th. Kennedy, McCarthy, Cahill, Miley, Corbin, Skaggs, Collmenter. Now you can send Skaggs down to AAA for one more year and you can argue that Collmenter and Delgado is a tossup right now (though I would argue Collmenter has been significantly better thusfar), but that still leaves five more guys to deal with.

The D'Backs just didn't need Delgado. There are teams out there where being able to find a decentish guy to make some starts would be quite valuable. Arizona sure doesn't look like one of them.

Their lineup, on the other hand, looks really shaky offensively and defensively. Goldschmidt and Montero are both gonna have to hit a ton.

Don't be so hard on yourself. Most of us don't RTFA anyway.

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