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Friday, July 13, 2012

BA: What Happened At The Deadline

With 15 minutes to go before today’s Friday 5 p.m. Eastern signing deadline, 15 picks in the top 10 rounds remained unsigned. From top to bottom, here’s what happened with them:

Kevin Gausman (Orioles, first round, No. 4 overall): Signed for $4.32 million. That made him one of the few players to get more than his assigned pick value ($4.2 million ) in the first round. He got the third-highest bonus in the draft, behind No. 2 overall pick Byron Buxton ($6 million) and No. 1 overall choice Carlos Correa ($4.8 million).

Mark Appel (Pirates, first round, No. 8 overall): Did not sign. A source said Pittsburgh offered him $3.8 million, the most it could without forfeiting a 2013 first-round pick. Considered the likely No. 1 overall choice before the draft, he will return to Stanford for his senior season.

Lucas Giolito (Nationals, first round, No. 16 overall): Signed for $2,925,000. He likely would have gone in the top three picks had he not injured his elbow in March. While he didn’t get the money he would have commanded at the top of the draft, he got well in excess of his $2,125,000 pick value.

Posted the big 3, there’s more info in the link.

Tripon Posted: July 13, 2012 at 06:37 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: draft

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: July 13, 2012 at 10:29 PM (#4182230)
Is 15 unsigned in 10 rounds unusual? If anything it sounds low to me but I haven't a clue.
   2. jyjjy Posted: July 13, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4182257)
It wasn't even 15, 6 of those signed right at the deadline. So that's 9 and yes, that seems low to me. I guess the slotting and penalties remove a lot of negotiation possibilities that may have caused friction in the past.
   3. MM1f Posted: July 14, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4182282)
It wasn't even 15, 6 of those signed right at the deadline. So that's 9 and yes, that seems low to me. I guess the slotting and penalties remove a lot of negotiation possibilities that may have caused friction in the past.


More than anything it means that this new system made teams overdraft guys who were certain to sign for the right amount (like all the college seniors in rounds 4-10) early and then pick the talented, hard to sign guys in rounds 11-40.
   4. EvilBoWeevil Posted: July 14, 2012 at 02:45 AM (#4182298)
If Appel goes into the draft after his senior year and does not sign by the deadline, does that make him a free agent?
   5. Tripon Posted: July 14, 2012 at 03:05 AM (#4182301)
No. Only way for him to be a free agent is to not get drafted.
   6. EvilBoWeevil Posted: July 14, 2012 at 04:04 AM (#4182304)
Yeah, but if he is drafted and does not sign by the deadline he is no longer property of the team that drafts him. At that point he can no longer be drafted, assuming he finished his senior year and school and graduated.

It's a risk as he can get injured and you can argue he is missing developmental time.

His agent is Boras though and maybe this is a ploy to show the problems with the new draft system.
   7. EvilBoWeevil Posted: July 14, 2012 at 04:05 AM (#4182305)
Yeah, but if he is drafted and does not sign by the deadline he is no longer property of the team that drafts him. At that point he can no longer be drafted, assuming he finished his senior year and school and graduated.

It's a risk as he can get injured and you can argue he is missing developmental time.

His agent is Boras though and maybe this is a ploy to show the problems with the new draft system.
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: July 14, 2012 at 04:09 AM (#4182306)
Yeah, but if he is drafted and does not sign by the deadline he is no longer property of the team that drafts him. At that point he can no longer be drafted, assuming he finished his senior year and school and graduated.


The deadline does not apply to college seniors. One of this year's list of still-unsigned, Preston Tucker, is expected to sign later in the month with the Astros.
   9. bobm Posted: July 14, 2012 at 08:37 AM (#4182329)

Pirates Only Team Unable to Sign First-Round Draft Pick
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: July 14, 2012 ...

Pittsburgh was prepared to go as much as 5 percent above its threshold and incur the first level of penalty, a 75 percent tax on the overage.

"After much thought, prayer and analysis of both opportunities, I came to the conclusion the best decision is to remain at Stanford continuing my studies, finishing my degree, and doing all I can to assist the Cardinal baseball team in our goal to win a national championship," Appel said in a statement.

Because Appel did not sign, the Pirates will receive an extra first-round pick in next June's draft, the ninth selection over all. The Pirates also could gain an extra selection from baseball's first competitive balance draft, which will be held Wednesday in Secaucus, N.J.


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/14/sports/baseball/mlb-baseball-roundup.html
   10. Austin Posted: July 14, 2012 at 09:40 AM (#4182343)
I can't really see how this makes sense for Appel. He's making a bet that he'll maintain his stock next year, which is a big risk for a pitcher (easily injured) who has had mediocre performance given his raw "stuff." And even then, what leverage will he have as a senior? Say that a team takes him third overall (hardly a huge stretch given that this was a weak draft and he wasn't even a surefire number-one talent) and decides to play hardball, offering him $3.5M. What choice does Appel have, except to sign for that amount? And then he's managed to get himself paid less money while sacrificing a year of development. Evidently, he's gambling that he'll do well enough next year that a team will take him in the top three picks and pay him close to slot value... which seems like way too big a risk.

I'm also kind of surprised, but pleasantly so, that Giolito signed. Shouldn't he be a huge steal at $2.9M with the sixteenth pick? In the middle of the first round, the Nationals are basically getting a guy with the talent of a No. 1 overall pick (~$7M), saving $4M on what he would have cost if drafted based on talent, and sacrificing... probably one year of development for Tommy John surgery (from which the recovery rate is so good that there shouldn't be any worry about his future), but what else? The only draft picks they signed for well below slot were in the fourth, sixth, ninth, and tenth rounds. That late in the draft, any player you take has only an extremely small chance of getting more than a cup of coffee in the big leagues, so I think the Nationals did really well for themselves here.
   11. Brian Oliver Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:31 AM (#4182372)
I agree the Nationals did very well in getting Giolito. Though the Nats have placed all of their 2012 draft eggs in one basket with Giolito. it's a function of the new draft process where there are going to be teams hamstrung by their pool amount. With only $4M and change to pay more their first 10 rounds worth of selections (and any >$100K guy after that), the Nationals drafted lots of "just a guy" in subsequent rounds. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the teams with bottom 10 bonus pool amounts, do you go with one $3M and a bunch of "just a guys" or do you attempt to spread the risk by grabbing a couple of $1-1.5M guys.
   12. deputydrew Posted: July 14, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4182492)
The Pirates also could gain an extra selection from baseball's first competitive balance draft, which will be held Wednesday in Secaucus, N.J.


What??
   13. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: July 14, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4182503)
I agree with 10 about Appel. This seems like a pretty poor decision on his part.
   14. Jim Wisinski Posted: July 14, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4182537)
I also agree that Appel is running a lot of risk by turning down that offer, even outside of the chance of him pitching poorly or getting injured during his senior year. I couldn't find the list of slot numbers for the first round but looking at the bonuses given to the top picks this year I'm assuming that even with a slight increase in the values Appel would still need to be picked 5th or better to match the $3.8 million Pittsburgh offered. Teams probably wouldn't try to force a way under slot amount on him if they picked him high but if he's picked lower than a $3.8 million slot then I see no reason for a team to bend over backwards like the Pirates did to try to get him as much money as possible. He'll probably be offered slot and told to take it or leave it; he can't turn down another offer and have any hope of making what he wanted in the first place, beyond the increasing age and lost development he's going to be labeled as a guy more interested in his signing bonus than in becoming an MLB pitcher. He has to pitch well, stay healthy, and have one of the first five teams want him more than another player for this to work out in his favor.
   15. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4182588)
What if Appel actually just really wants to go back to college for his senior year?
   16. Tripon Posted: July 14, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4182605)
Then he can still get signed and have the Pirates pay for his last year of education.
   17. chisoxcollector Posted: July 14, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4182759)
Am I crazy for thinking that the Nationals might end up with the best player in 4 consecutive drafts?

2012 - Giolito has a pretty high upside. Buxton is probably the only guy with a higher ceiling.

2011 - This is the biggest stretch. I do have high hopes for Anthony Rendon. Health is obviously his biggest concern. Most of his competition will come from pitchers. Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, Bundy, etc.

2010 - Bryce Harper. Chris Sale may end up being his only real competition.

2009 - The battle for best 2009 draftee should be an interesting battle between Trout and Strasburg.
   18. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 14, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4182760)
Then he can still get signed and have the Pirates pay for his last year of education.


That's really not the same thing as going back now, enjoying being the star of a good baseball team and having any scorching hot college girl you want on any given night.
   19. MM1f Posted: July 14, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4182771)
Am I crazy for thinking that the Nationals might end up with the best player in 4 consecutive drafts?


Yep.
   20. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: July 15, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4182842)
Best in 4: unlikely, but possible

Competitive balance draft: yeah, that's a real thing
   21. Walt Davis Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:11 AM (#4182858)
That's really not the same thing as going back now, enjoying being the star of a good baseball team and having any scorching hot college girl you want on any given night.

Yep, professional baseball players with $3.8 M in their pocket have trouble getting laid.
   22. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:52 AM (#4182887)
Teams probably wouldn't try to force a way under slot amount on him if they picked him high


Why wouldn't they? Whoever picks #1 could draft Appel, offer him $3M and, if he accepts, have around $4M to offer other picks over slot. If he doesn't accept, he would have to sit out a year and then go back into the draft the next year. Of course the team loses the $4M in over slot cash as well, but they would still get a pick the following year. The consequences of not signing next year seem worse for Appel than for the team drafting him.
   23. DKDC Posted: July 15, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4183012)
It's way too early to write off the field for the 2009 and 2010 drafts. Strasburg and Harper have staked strong claims early, but I'm not sure I'd give either one better than even odds to have the best career in their draft class.

Guys like Machado, Myers, Taillon, Hamilton, Wheeler and many others haven't reached the majors yet.

As for the 2011 and 2012 drafts, almost no one thinks the Nats have the most talented player. So probably less than a 10% chance there.

It's way more likely that no team will have a group of 4 players from those drafts that are better than the Nats 4, but even that's no sure thing.
   24. McCoy Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:12 PM (#4183161)
That's some risky brinkmanship on the part of employees whose job it is to fill the team with talent. You play that game and lose you create a hole in your organization.
   25. base ball chick Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4183191)
why would anyone pick appel number one? after he finishes his senior year, he has NO leverage unless he intends to go play in japan and i doubt he'd get much of anything to go there.

i really REALLY do not get this at ALL, unless appel did what he wanted and it was NOT boras' advice. i think appel thought he was gonna go #1, that the astros were gonna go over slot, and basically not pick anyone worth anything in the next 9 slots. or that they would forfeit next year's first round pick and be satisfied with the competitive balance pick at the end of the first round. or something.

times have changed and the rules have changed and either boras has a really clever plan ain't none of us thought of for how to get more money for seniors or appel is matt harrington version 2
   26. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 15, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4183205)
Yep, professional baseball players with $3.8 M in their pocket have trouble getting laid.


You've been to college, right? It's a whole different atmosphere there than anywhere else in the world. I'm not saying staying in school was the smart thing for Appel to do, but I'm raising the possibility that maybe, for whatever personal reasons he had, he just really wanted to go back to school. Because as bbc and others have pointed out, Appel is putting himself in a precarious spot by not signing.
   27. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4183217)
why would anyone pick appel number one?

If he establishes that he is the best player, perhaps by a considerable margin? I'm not saying he comes out ahead, given the lost year of development, but if he's good enough, grabbing him and paying the slot price is not a bad move. Of course, he runs considerable risk that his senior season doesn't play out that well.
   28. Brian Oliver Posted: July 15, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4183225)
why would anyone pick appel number one?


Ask Luke Hochevar
   29. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 15, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4183349)
why would anyone pick appel number one? after he finishes his senior year, he has NO leverage unless he intends to go play in japan and i doubt he'd get much of anything to go there.


Right, if you think there's no clear #1 talent, you can pick a Top 5 talent and pay him a fraction of what a HS player or college junior would cost.
   30. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:02 PM (#4183377)
but I'm raising the possibility that maybe, for whatever personal reasons he had, he just really wanted to go back to school

If this was true, he didn't have to declare for the draft, right?
   31. Jim Wisinski Posted: July 15, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4183381)
Why wouldn't they? Whoever picks #1 could draft Appel, offer him $3M and, if he accepts, have around $4M to offer other picks over slot. If he doesn't accept, he would have to sit out a year and then go back into the draft the next year. Of course the team loses the $4M in over slot cash as well, but they would still get a pick the following year. The consequences of not signing next year seem worse for Appel than for the team drafting him.


I just doubt that a team would use a top pick on a guy considered appropriate for that slot and then give him a seriously lowball offer just because he has no leverage. It would look pretty bad and I don't feel that teams would want that kind of bad press about their negotiating tactics. Teams will cheap out where they can and try to control costs but they don't like being singled out as the only bad guys around.
   32. MM1f Posted: July 16, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4183511)
If this was true, he didn't have to declare for the draft, right?


This isn't football. You don't "declare" for the draft.
   33. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 16, 2012 at 12:46 AM (#4183521)
I just doubt that a team would use a top pick on a guy considered appropriate for that slot and then give him a seriously lowball offer just because he has no leverage. It would look pretty bad and I don't feel that teams would want that kind of bad press about their negotiating tactics. Teams will cheap out where they can and try to control costs but they don't like being singled out as the only bad guys around.

Possible. But it's not a certainty.
   34. Greg Pope thinks the Cubs are reeking havoc Posted: July 16, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4183547)
This isn't football. You don't "declare" for the draft.

You don't? How does it work then? I guess I don't know.
   35. Tripon Posted: July 16, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4183551)
Every eligible person gets assigned a draft ID, and they get picked that way. Technically, your 80 year old grandma can be eligible for the draft.
   36. Swedish Chef Posted: July 16, 2012 at 02:17 AM (#4183554)
Of course the team loses the $4M in over slot cash as well, but they would still get a pick the following year. The consequences of not signing next year seem worse for Appel than for the team drafting him.

As Appel can sit out the deadline as a senior, would you sign those guys not knowing where you're at with him? He would have leverage to hurt you like hell. Spending 15% over slot means losing two first-round draft picks.
   37. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 16, 2012 at 07:03 AM (#4183569)
As Appel can sit out the deadline as a senior, would you sign those guys not knowing where you're at with him? He would have leverage to hurt you like hell. Spending 15% over slot means losing two first-round draft picks.


This is true. I hadn't thought of that.

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