The Phillies are in an interesting spot with Chase Utley. The 34-year-old is eligible for free agency after the 2013 season and the Phillies are in the midst of what appears to be a transitional phase. The 2014 roster very well could feature new, younger faces at catcher, second base, third base, and at both outfield corners depending on what if anything the Phillies do to finish out this off-season. Yes, for the first time since 2002, the Phillies may feature a roster that does not include Chase Utley. Diamonds aren’t forever.
GM Ruben Amaro must decide if his team will go into a total rebuild or will simply tread water until the roster is permuted to satisfaction. Just as he must choose between Carlos Ruiz and youth at the catching position, Amaro must do so at second base with Chase Utley. Freddy Galvis is the obvious heir to Utley’s throne despite an incredibly weak offensive game. Aside from Galvis, the Phillies don’t have any prospects at second base, meaning that other options would be found via free agency or via trade.
The 2014 free agent class at second base may include such names as Robinson Cano and Ben Zobrist (if his $7 million club option is denied, which seems unlikely at the moment), but the two will be 31 and 33 respectively. It is hard to project which second basemen will be made available via trade as it depends on many factors, including the success of their teams in 2013. Suffice it to say the Phillies will have a very hard time replacing Utley’s production, even the old, broken-down Utley of recent vintage.
The Phillies could sign Utley to a short-term contract extension, covering two or three years, at around $10 million per year. It would be risky since the second baseman hasn’t surpassed 115 games played in a season since 2009. Utley may see his impending free agency as his last chance at a big contract, so he could choose to test the waters, turning over a new leaf with a different team.
At the moment, Utley is one of just 27 players all-time with five seasons of seven or more WAR, according to Baseball Reference. Of the 21 others, only nine others had five consecutive years of seven or more WAR as Utley did from 2005-09. Utley is also third all-time in Phillies history in WAR, trailing Mike Schmidt and Richie Ashburn. He will likely surpass Ashburn this season with little effort.
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1. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mamaIs this Bizarro math or are my brain cells dead?
Quoting now from their writeup before his 2005 breakout season:
Before 2005:
Before 2007:
Before 2008:
As for the HOF, he's got the HOF peak, but, due to the late start and injuries, doesn't have enough outside of it. And only 1200 games. He's going to need another two or three good years here to get serious consideration, I think. Is an all-time great five-year peak enough? His WAR was 7-7-8-9-8 for that stretch. And outside of that he goes 6-4-3-2. It's an interesting case.
And if you adjust his 1972 to a 162-game schedule, that 9.3 goes to a 9.8!
maybe utley can bounce back. but boy he's fighting a lot of history between injury and second base and body type and the cumulative effect of all those hbp.
i wish him well and that he proves me wrong
being a brewer fan i have observed this up close with rickie weeks
i don't know what research has been done but i have come to strongly suspect that whatever equipment is used that being hit by pitches has a cumulaitve negative effect on a player.
anything out there?
Utley and Weeks are in rare company among high-frequency HBP batters. Of the top 10 through 10 seasons, 8 are middle infielders (C, 2B, SS) and 1 is a center fielder. Utley leads the pack in SLG.
From BR PI:
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1961 to 2012, From 1st season to 10th season, (requiring PA<40*HBP and At least 800 games), sorted by greatest Hit By Pitch
Seasons/Careers found: 10.
Note the distribution of batters by HBP frequency; it is quite concentrated.
Here is the HBP frequency for the top 10 listed above:
Player PA/HBP through first 10 seasons Ron Hunt 25 Jason LaRue 29 Jason Kendall 30 Fernando Vina 31 Reed Johnson 31 Chase Utley 34 Rickie Weeks 37 Mike Macfarlane 38 Aaron Rowand 38 David Eckstein 40Of the 10 listed above, 3 were active as of 2012. Of the remaining 7:
*Eckstein stopped playing after 10 seasons;
*4 played no more than 2 additional seasons before retired;
*The 2 who played 3 or more additional seasons were catchers;
*Jason Kendall's hitting fell off a figurative cliff and Aaron Rowand had run face first into a literal outfield wall; and,
*Only Hunt matched his prior OPS.
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1961 to 2012, For players in the saved report : (Cum, 1961 - 2012, 1st 10th season, (requiring PA<40*HBP and At least 800 games), sorted by greatest Hit By Pitch: Results), From 11th season to last season, sorted by greatest Games Played
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