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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Baggarly: Giants get Hunter Pence

Phillies seem to be doing nicely for themselves at the deadline.

The deal is Joseph, Schierholtz and Single-A RHP Seth Rosin for Pence. To be announced shortly.

Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 31, 2012 at 01:52 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants, phillies, trades, transactions

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   1. Depressoteric Posted: July 31, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4197241)
Would still love it if the Phils traded Cliff Lee out from under the Nats' noses before tonight's matchup against Strasburg.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 31, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4197247)
Any idea on Cliff Lee's value? How much if any are the Phillies willing to eat on that contract?
   3. Dan Posted: July 31, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4197253)
Still seems like a net loss since the Phillies had to send Cosart and Singleton to Houston to get Pence a year ago. So they paid Cosart, Singleton, and $~7M for a year of Hunter Pence and Joseph, Schierholtz, and Rosin.
   4. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 31, 2012 at 02:29 PM (#4197260)
Dan, I don't know how much you weigh an all-in attempt but that figured in the trade to Houston also.
   5. A triple short of the cycle Posted: July 31, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4197374)
And the Schierholtz era comes to an end. The Giants have an institutional lack of patience with their young position players, Posey and Panda notwithstanding. Gary Brown better get off to a great start or they will be trading him for Alfonso Soriano.
   6. MM1f Posted: July 31, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4197381)

And the Schierholtz era comes to an end. The Giants have an institutional lack of patience with their young position players, Posey and Panda notwithstanding.


Schierholtz is 28 and he has been given 1300+ MLB PAs, over which he has posted a 99 OPS+. He has performed like a 4th OF, and he has been treated like one. I don't see how not giving 600 ABs to a guy who can't quite hit enough for his position is some major crime.

Posey and Sandoval prove that the Giants ARE perfectly willing to give young players full-time starting jobs, provided they are actually good enough to merit the job. Giants fans meanwhile think that every mediocre offensive prospect they have is a future star who needs a full-time job ASAP, regardless of whether or not the kid is good enough to deserve the job.

   7. phredbird Posted: July 31, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4197408)
Gary Brown better get off to a great start or they will be trading him for Alfonso Soriano.


huh, is he available?
   8. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 31, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4197417)
My response to having my team trade for Nate Schierholtz is not "Finally, this guy gets a chance to play." It's "I thought that guy had been established as a backup several years ago. Wow, the Giants actually gave him a lot more playing time than I realized!"
   9. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: July 31, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4197437)
Still seems like a net loss since the Phillies had to send Cosart and Singleton to Houston to get Pence a year ago. So they paid Cosart, Singleton, and $~7M for a year of Hunter Pence and Joseph, Schierholtz, and Rosin.

when the phillies made that original trade, they anticipated pence contributing to 3 pennant chases. they got last year, but they're not in contention this year and if they can get under the luxury tax by trading him now, that means that when they go over the tax next year, they'll only be paying 13 cents on the dollar as a first time offender, as opposed 40, which is what they'd be paying as a repeat offender.


if the phillies intention is to reload for another run at a title this offseason, these two trades really were the best option for them.




   10. Steve Treder Posted: July 31, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4197491)
Schierholtz is 28 and he has been given 1300+ MLB PAs, over which he has posted a 99 OPS+. He has performed like a 4th OF, and he has been treated like one. I don't see how not giving 600 ABs to a guy who can't quite hit enough for his position is some major crime.

Precisely. Schierholtz has long since proven to be nothing more or less than the blandest of journeymen.
   11. jacjacatk Posted: July 31, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4197552)
I'm not so sure, he's put up a 115 OPS+ over his last ~550 PAs, with a substantial platoon split. Looks like someone who might have always had a platoon issue that was hidden by SSS and has figured out how to hit a little and/or gotten better as he approached his peak. Given that he's not likely to make much in arbitration for the next couple of years, and a Mayberry/Schierholtz platoon could realistically put up an 825ish OPS in RF for about $13M less than Pence would cost, I can't see any real downside.
   12. Into the Void Posted: July 31, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4197555)
Schierholtz will also benefit from the dimensions at CBP, as far as his slugging % goes anyway.
   13. dr. scott Posted: July 31, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4197556)
I have not looked at any numbers, but he always looked like a + right fielder. Any upside there for the phillies? I always liked him but that was becasue he was one of the few near average hitters on the giants.
   14. Into the Void Posted: July 31, 2012 at 06:32 PM (#4197558)
I have not looked at any numbers, but he always looked like a + right fielder. Any upside there for the phillies? I always liked him but that was becasue he was one of the few near average hitters on the giants.


He's got an absolute canon for an arm which will help in that short RF.
   15. JRVJ Posted: July 31, 2012 at 07:24 PM (#4197577)
9, I haven't gone to the usual Phillies sites, so it may be that you got it from one, but thank you for this excelent explanation.
   16. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: July 31, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4197631)
I agree with [11]. Schierholtz is a terrific RF with good range, good instincts, and an amazing arm. He's a hair above average RF considering the total package. His walk rate continue to improve, he's got gap to gap power, and there's no reason why he shouldn't put up a 105 OPS+ or better in ~450 PAs on the heavy side of a platoon.

He's Pence-lite. For a tiny fraction of the money. I don't know anything about the prospects but Joseph is supposed to be pretty good. I think Sabean got hosed here in pursuit of making a splash.

To top it all off, the Giants already had three fairly decent outfielders in Cabrera, Pagan and Blanco. Complicating matters is that Blanco is LHB and Pagan is a switch-hitter who's somewhat better from the left side himself. This acquisition wastes money and creates playing time problems while ignoring massive holes in the lineup from both middle infield spots (Theriot isn't even good defensively, either), possibly first base depending how you feel about Belt, and emerging bullpen problems.

My father in law is one of the biggest Giants fans I know but he's an MSM guy, so when he said to me the other day "I guess the Giants need to get a bit bat, don't they" I was a bit perplexed at first. But that was obviously the perception, and Sabean bought it himself.
   17. Padraic Posted: July 31, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4197657)
that means that when they go over the tax next year, they'll only be paying 13 cents on the dollar as a first time offender, as opposed 40, which is what they'd be paying as a repeat offender.


Is this right? MLB.com lists it as:

V.. COMPETITIVE BALANCE TAX
a. The threshold level of $178 million in 2011 will remain unchanged in 2012 and 2013. The
threshold will increase to $189 million for 2014, 2015, and 2016.
b. The tax rate will decrease to 17.5% for Clubs that exceed the threshold for the first time, and
the rate will increase to 50% for Clubs that exceed the threshold for the fourth time or more.
Rates will remain the same for Clubs that exceed the threshold for the second time (30%) and
third time (40%). The CBT rates in 2012 will be subject to a transition rule.
c. The Competitive Balance Tax structure under the 2006 Basic Agreement will be modified so that
a team that moves below the threshold will be treated as going over for the first time when it
next exceeds the threshold.


Not that it changes anything, but it's 17.5% vs. 30%, which if they went a few million over, isn't all that much. Considering how much better Pence is than anyone in the system, that seems a very small premium to pay.
   18. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 31, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4197660)
hunter pence is the gangliest, goofiest, homeliest player in baseball. he's a throwback to the 30's when it seemed every other guy on the field was some aw shucks hayseed from nebraska.

pence always reminded me of johnny lindell another long drink of water who got things done on a ballfield and how he did it left me baffled
   19. Textbook Editor Posted: July 31, 2012 at 09:31 PM (#4197667)
Pence ain't worth $14 million + Luxury Tax penalty in 2013, and that's what the Phillies were looking at: paying him $14 million or so more and getting a compensation pick... or paying him another $12-13 million to play in 2014. While I'm surprised Amaro realized it, those are $ better spent elsewhere.
   20. JRVJ Posted: July 31, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4197766)
17, I think I read somewhere that going over doesn't carry forward if you go back under. So if the Phillies went over in 2011 (don't really know), they clean that up by going under in 2012. Thus, for 2013 purposes, they would pay 17.5% if they go over.

I agree that the savings on extra dollars over $178MM are not that material (13.5% on every $ over), BUT it is money, and if the Phils decide that their 2013 - 2016 budget is $189 MM (which is not unlikely, considering that they HAVE to be playing for a mega TV deal after 2014, IIRC), they save $1.5MM +/- in 2013 by being under the thresshold in 2012.

   21. tshipman Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4197770)
Terrible deal for the Giants.

The Giants acquired a guy with a 109 OPS+. For the privilege of doing this, they traded a guy a year younger with a 115 OPS+ who plays better defense. In addition, they had to throw in their #2 prospect.

That is an awful, awful deal.
   22. Steve Treder Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4197772)
The Giants acquired a guy with a 109 OPS+. For the privilege of doing this, they traded a guy a year younger with a 115 OPS+ who plays better defense. In addition, they had to throw in their #2 prospect.

That is an awful, awful deal.


Way wrong. Talk about cherry-picking your stats.
   23. tshipman Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4197779)
Way wrong. Talk about cherry-picking your stats.


In what way is it cherry picking?

Schierholtz has been a better hitter this year when you adjust for park. Pence's good year was almost entirely BABIP driven (.361 last year, .305 this year). Pence is also a poor defender.

They traded for a guy who's played worse than the guy they traded. In addition, the guy they traded for makes more money. In addition, they threw in prospects.

This is a terrible, terrible trade.
   24. Steve Treder Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4197783)
Way cherry-picking wrong. You well understand the ways.
   25. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4197786)
Schierholtz has been a better hitter this year when you adjust for park. Pence's good year was almost entirely BABIP driven (.361 last year, .305 this year). Pence is also a poor defender.

What about the good year Pence had in 2010, that was not BABIP driven? Or the good year Pence had in 2009, that was not BABIP driven? Both of those being years in which Schierholtz did not have a good year? Because Schierholtz has never hit for any power in the major leagues?
   26. tshipman Posted: August 01, 2012 at 01:06 AM (#4197787)
What about the good year Pence had in 2010, that was not BABIP driven? Or the good year Pence had in 2009, that was not BABIP driven? Both of those being years in which Schierholtz did not have a good year? Because Schierholtz has never hit for any power in the major leagues?


Which good year was that in 2010? I see a hitter who put up a 112 OPS+, or a 2.6 oWAR with negative defensive value if you prefer that.

Don't get me wrong about Schierholtz. He's a pretty average at best player, too. He's thoroughly mediocre, I mean we're talking about a guy who was beat out by Gregor Blanco to start the year. He's still better than Pence has been this year.

Pence has one year that was worth trading for. It was last year.
   27. Tricky Dick Posted: August 01, 2012 at 11:17 AM (#4197986)
Having watched most of Pence's career as an Astros' fan, I have always felt that his defense in RF is better than the advanced stats indicate. That said, my memory is that he looked lost in the big RF in SF. Maybe it was just lack of familiarity or bad positioning. (I recall the Astros saying, after one of those series, that they had made mistakes on outfield positioning.)

Pence is a very streaky hitter. He can struggle for long periods and then just explode in a deluge of extra base hits for a sustained period. So, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he goes on a tear with the Giants and drives his wOBA up closer to his career average wOBA this year. That would be a big lift for the Giants' playoff chances if that happens. I suppose there is an element of luck as to how this trade ends up for the Giants.

I like Pence as a good, but not great, hitter and outfielder. But I doubt he is worth $14 million / year.

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