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Sunday, April 29, 2012

Baggarly: Giants still not crisp with RISP

MAKE IT STOP! PLEASE…SOMEONE MAKE IT STOP!

You’re probably sick of hearing that the Giants hit .173 with two outs and runners in scoring position last season.

I’ve mentioned it often because it’s a stunning stat. It’s the worst a major league team has done in the four decades for which data is available. The Giants couldn’t be any worse this season if they tried, as general manager Brian Sabean said in spring training.

Well, through April, the Giants continued to be massively un-clutch. Joaquin Arias hit a two-out, two-run triple in the sixth inning Sunday. And that gave them a little bit of a lift. They ended the month 17 for 98 with two outs and runners in scoring position.

That’s good for … a .173 average.

It’s .173469, to be more precise. Last year, it was .172920.

So Sabean was right, technically. They aren’t as bad as last year.

Repoz Posted: April 29, 2012 at 11:44 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants, sabermetrics

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   1. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: April 30, 2012 at 07:56 AM (#4119576)
Meanwhile, Coco Crisp has been no giant with RISP (.500 OPS).
   2. The Mohole* of David Wells (* - Piehole) Posted: April 30, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4119789)
But how is Coco with 2 outs and RISP? That's what this guy is complaining about. This is one of those news-and-notes columns so he doesn't bother indicating what "the four decades for which data is available" which makes me suspect that they're probably just barely worst. Anyone have a subscription to play index?

Edit: And more to the point, you'd have to separate out NL teams from ML teams in general because of league differences (pitcher hits and what-not), and check BABIP to see if there's a real trend here or if it's just a fluke over 100 AB. This seems like exactly the kind of thing the media get worked up about but could be just an illusion.
   3. zenbitz Posted: April 30, 2012 at 01:05 PM (#4119828)
at least for this season the obvious reason is that the good Giants hitters are the only ones ever on base, so the worse hitters get all the RISP.
   4. Swedish Chef Posted: May 01, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4120575)
They need to get hip with BABIP.
   5. McCoveyCoveDAVE Posted: May 04, 2012 at 12:39 AM (#4123182)
Andy, can you educate me about RISP. How can a team improve their RISP average to at least be as good as their overall batting average? If a low RISP average is anti-clutch hitting, how does a player become more clutch. Is it coachable? How do the Giants get their RISP average up? I wonder if some players consistently have high relative (to their overall bating average) RISP like an Andre Ethier? Are clutch hitter born, now coached? I also wonder if players that are not patient hitters (like the Giants) are poor in RISP in general? I understand the Giants swing at more balls than any other team in baseball.
   6. Dr. Vaux Posted: May 04, 2012 at 01:02 AM (#4123188)
It does seem conceivable that hitters who are less patient overall might become even more anxious with RISP, and thus prone to getting worse than their normal results in that situation, while more patient hitters would be less inclined to change their approach with RISP, and so would get results in that situation that are more in line with their normal results.
   7. bobm Posted: May 04, 2012 at 01:37 AM (#4123206)
BA with RISP is (not even) half the story.

In terms of scoring efficiency, defined as baserunners per non HR run scored, the Giants rank only 11th worst out of 30 and only 7th worst out of the 16 MLB teams. It's bad. However, is it as bad as the RISP stats make it out to be?

2012 Baserunner per (non-HR) Run Scored

Tm  BR/nHR  BR   R  H  HR RBI  BB HBP
PIT  4.21  223  68 178 15  63  53  7
OAK  4.08  253  82 188 20  77  74 11
MIA  4.03  234  78 177 20  73  73  4
WSN  3.95  261  80 185 14  75  86  4
SDP  3.90  273  82 180 12  74  99  6
NYM  3.90  300  95 224 18  90  90  4

KCR  3.71  256  89 207 20  84  61  8
MIN  3.63  265  87 202 14  85  66 11
LAD  3.63  290 103 212 23 100  94  7
CHW  3.62  250  95 196 26  92  71  9

SFG  3.61  260  93 216 21  89  62  3
CLE  3.61  285  98 184 19  95 112  8
CIN  3.49  241  88 183 19  85  71  6
SEA  3.46  256  99 215 25  96  64  2
LAA  3.44  248  93 205 21  89  61  3

BAL  3.42  253 108 214 34  99  62 11
MIL  3.40  238 102 186 32  98  70 14
NYY  3.39  281 121 220 38 117  90  9
PHI  3.37  263  93 220 15  88  53  5
TBR  3.35  278 114 202 31 111  96 11

CHC  3.31  245  85 190 11  78  59  7
ARI  3.20  282 113 212 25 112  85 10
HOU  3.12  312 118 232 18 113  92  6
DET  3.11  252 105 199 24  94  68  9
TEX  3.04  301 136 253 37 131  73 12

TOR  3.01  277 124 209 32 117  90 10
STL  2.89  306 135 243 29 131  84  8
COL  2.74  266 127 216 30 123  71  9
BOS  2.73  281 132 232 29 129  71  7
ATL  2.67  286 133 228 26 128  82  2


BR = H-HR+BB+HBP
nHR = R-HR

EDIT: FTFA
All levity aside, the Giants are scoring much more consistently than a year before. That’s because they keep creating opportunities – something last year’s team wasn’t able to do.
   8. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 04, 2012 at 02:24 AM (#4123217)
I wonder if some players consistently have high relative (to their overall bating average) RISP like an Andre Ethier?


Most hitters should have a consistently higher average with RISP relative to their overall average. It's easier to hit for a higher average with RISP, in part because fly balls with a runner on third and less than two outs frequently go from an out to a non-event, while hitting against a drawn-in infield is also going to yield, on average, more hits. And, less obvious, but probably significant, batters who come up in RISP situations may be more likely to be facing pitchers beginning to tire/lose effecttiveness.

Now, hitting with RISP and two outs, which the FA is discussing, is another matter. Teams should, in general, hit about as well as they do in all other situations. My guess is the Giants don't really need to do anything other than hit better. I don't think there's anything inherent in the two-out, RISP situation, or individual player batting tendencies, that should yield better/worse results in two-out, runner-on situations.

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