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Sunday, July 08, 2007

Ballou: Big Papi’s power falloff ranks with worst

Amazingly…Ballou has forgotten about Kid Shelleen’s falloff from his horse.

But what about the future? Is this just some sort of statistical fluke that Ortiz will bounce back from to become his dangerous old self, or is something more fundamental going on? Has he simply lost some of the unique and remarkable skills that made him baseball’s most dangerous hitter for about 3-1/2 seasons?

One prevailing argument is that because Manny Ramirez is not the threat he once was, and because the Sox have no intimidating bat in the No. 5 slot — despite the signing of J.D. Drew — Ortiz simply does not see very many good pitches to hit anymore.

Perhaps, but Boston’s No. 5 hitters last year were even worse than this year, and he hit 54 home runs.

His projection for this season is 25, and if that happens, it would be one of the most dramatic falloffs from 50 of any power hitter, ever.

Repoz Posted: July 08, 2007 at 01:21 PM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: history, red sox

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1. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 08, 2007 at 01:32 PM (#2433488)

-Ortiz has been playing with sore hamstrings all year, which prevent him from getting deep enough into his crouch, which prevents him from getting hte same kind of good uppercut on the ball.
-Ortiz is 5th in the majors in EqA - when you adjust for the big drop in offense leaguewide, he's producing at a similar rate.

2. Rich Posted: July 08, 2007 at 01:42 PM (#2433491)

There is nothing wrong with Ortiz that a series against the Yankees wouldn't cure.

3. Sparkles Peterson Posted: July 08, 2007 at 02:19 PM (#2433505)

Hamstring problems can kill a player's power to a greater degree than most people realize. That's what is holding Pujols back now.

4. bfan Posted: July 08, 2007 at 02:36 PM (#2433509)

It is amazing to think that .928 OPS and 16 HR's at the break is Pujols being held back.

5. Sparkles Peterson Posted: July 08, 2007 at 02:49 PM (#2433516)

Well, he's only had the hamstring problem for a few weeks now. He started off in a regular slump, swinging at everything, then busted out with a big month in late May and early June, but injured his hamstring and has basically been a singles hitter since (Albeit one still capable of hitting over .300).

6. Liver of blaspheming 'zop Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:23 PM (#2433532)

He probably just mistimed his cycles this year. It can happen to anyone; ask Jason Giambi.

7. PJ Martinez Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:29 PM (#2433536)

"when you adjust for the big drop in offense leaguewide"

Numbers?

And how is Fenway playing this year? Mike Lowell's hitting for more power than one would expect, and maybe Youkilis, too, but everyone else's power numbers seem down. Is that just players slumping, or are there other factors at work?

8. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:30 PM (#2433538)

*tears of 'zops head and shits down his neck*

one thing i've noticed is that Ortizzle has 29 doubles this year... as compared to 29 all of last season. the guy still has a near 1000 OPS, i didn't even really notice the dropoff in his production until it was pointed out to me.

9. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:37 PM (#2433541)

Fenway is playing as a slight hitters park (102/101), and the team high in HR is Ortiz and Lowell @ 14 each... which isn't that many. they are hitting an assload of doubles, though, 5 players are already over the 20 twobagger mark.

overall offense in both the AL and NL is significantly down. David Ortiz's OPS+ is currently 160... and last year it was 164. that's pretty significant considering his raw OPS is .997 whereas last year it was 1.049. the league avg OPS is down from .784 last year to .765 this year.

the same effect is seen in the NL, where league OPS is down .025 thus far this year.

10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:38 PM (#2433542)

Numbers?

MLB runs per game, 2006: 4.86
MLB runs per game, 2007: 4.67

11. scareduck Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:39 PM (#2433543)

Without providing cites, I seem to remember that the speculation on Big Papi is that hitters of his type -- big, immobile sluggers with little value outside of their bats -- fall off a cliff faster and harder than other types. Mo Vaughn was like this.

12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:41 PM (#2433544)

Without providing cites, I seem to remember that the speculation on Big Papi is that hitters of his type -- big, immobile sluggers with little value outside of their bats -- fall off a cliff faster and harder than other types. Mo Vaughn was like this.

This is true, but Papi's production, in context, is basically equal to his production last year.

13. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:43 PM (#2433545)

how the #### is ######### censored but not shits?

14. TVerik Posted: July 08, 2007 at 03:47 PM (#2433550)

As players age, they develop "old player's skills" sometimes, including walks and homers. Has there ever been a player in history (non-injury division) who started with old player's skills and later abandoned them in favor of "young player's skills"?

Note: I am not accusing Ortiz of this phonomenon; it's way too soon to make that sort of statement.

15. b Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:04 PM (#2433561)

16. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:21 PM (#2433576)

he's lost over 100 points of ISO and he's masked that by raising his AVG 30 points. a big part of that is a babip that's about 80 points higher than last year and 50 points higher than his career average. it may be a wash, but i'm not sure it's a sustainable wash.

often what happens (as a harbinger of sudden decline) is a significant drop in ISO, accompanied by an increase in BBs

a rise in BA isn't very common

This is true, but Papi's production, in context, is basically equal to his production last year.

the overall decline usually happens in year n+1

17. TVerik Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:28 PM (#2433582)

How do you know? Couldn't that bump in BABIP be due to his adaptation the the shifts that are being deployed against him too?

If he's beating the shift that consistently, then teams won't employ it anymore.

And if the shift leads directly to reducing his home runs (somehow) while making him a more dangerous singles hitter, I think most teams would take that tradeoff. There are other singles hitters; Ortiz is special for other reasons.

18. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:36 PM (#2433588)

As players age, they develop "old player's skills" sometimes, including walks and homers. Has there ever been a player in history (non-injury division) who started with old player's skills and later abandoned them in favor of "young player's skills"?

What would this mean...decrease in homers, increase in steals?

I can't think of anyone actually.

19. TVerik Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:39 PM (#2433593)

More of an increase in BABIP; I wouldn't expect steals to be a "late blooming" skill.

20. Flynn Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:42 PM (#2433597)

-Ortiz has been playing with sore hamstrings all year, which prevent him from getting deep enough into his crouch, which prevents him from getting hte same kind of good uppercut on the ball.

I thought so at the time that the Red Sox were really dumb to play Papi and his bad hammies with a 13 game lead. Maybe it's a chronic problem that's not going to go away but I think they were much too focused on trying to kill the Yankees in June and now that's coming to bite them a little bit, because clearly those hamstrings haven't healed.

21. Asher87 Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:43 PM (#2433600)

Gary Sheffield isn't a player I think of when I think "old-player skills", but he has stolen bases with unusual frequency this season. As of now, he has 12 steals and is on pace to nearly match his career high 25 (age 21 season). This doesn't really meet the criteria of a power-to-speed change in skill set since he has hit 20 homers, but it's still pretty strange.

22. TVerik Posted: July 08, 2007 at 04:45 PM (#2433602)

I know Paul O'Neill stole more bases towards the end of his career. What did his BABIP do?

23. walt williams bobblehead Posted: July 08, 2007 at 05:03 PM (#2433607)

I think Kevin raises a good point. Ortiz is dealing with the shift and he has shown in the past that he has the willingness and the ability to adapt his swing. So it seems at least possible he raise his BABIP as his home runs go down. Maybe he wouldn't be "special" but he could still be among the best DHs. Of course, it would be more valuable if Ramirez and Drew were hitting better this year.

24. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 08, 2007 at 05:22 PM (#2433622)

In 1999, Albert Belle was 17-for-20 in stolen bases, on a disintegrating hip.

25. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: July 08, 2007 at 05:23 PM (#2433623)

Someone should point out that while his home runs have dropped, he's already hit as many double this year as all of last year. Sounds to me like either bad luck or an injury that's just sapping that extra bit of power from him.

26. TVerik Posted: July 08, 2007 at 05:29 PM (#2433638)

Someone should point out that while his home runs have dropped, he's already hit as many double this year as all of last year.

Someone did. His name is scott, and you can view his work in #8.

27. b Posted: July 08, 2007 at 06:53 PM (#2433769)

kevin, wouldn't a conscious effort to hit away from the shift show up on the distribution of his balls in play relative to previous seasons? It looks pretty much the same as last year to me, though I guess if you really wanted to get into it, you'd have to narrow the ABs to just those against the shift.

28. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 08, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2433771)

I predict he'll end up with 33 HR's this year.

29. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: July 08, 2007 at 07:15 PM (#2433806)

His LD% is up 3% from last year, but about the same as 2004 and down from 2005.

His GB% has gone up and his IFF% has plummeted.

So yeah, it certainly sounds like he's not getting as much uppercut on his swing. Considering that it's a hamstring problem, I wouldn't be worried unless there's word this is chronic. And hell, even if it is, he's showing he can still be one of the most productive hitters in the majors without insane power.

30. robinred

Posted: July 08, 2007 at 07:51 PM (#2433880)

What? Only one post with PED speculation?

31. Dan Turkenkopf Posted: July 08, 2007 at 07:54 PM (#2433888)

What? Only one post with PED speculation?

Come on, we all know the Red Sox don't use PEDs.

32. wcw Posted: July 08, 2007 at 10:06 PM (#2434038)

Yep, only Giants home-run hitters.

Like Neifi Perez.

33. karkface killah Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:18 AM (#2434462)

Mike Mills singing "Cat Ballou" is always an ear-scorcher. And this comes from a Grade-A REM fan.

34. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: July 09, 2007 at 05:51 AM (#2434480)

Someone did. His name is scott, and you can view his work in #8.

Damn ignore button...

35. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: July 09, 2007 at 06:01 AM (#2434484)

i am the terror that flaps in the night!
i am the invisible post on the most recently updated list!
i am... DARKWING DUCK!

36. Backlasher

Posted: July 09, 2007 at 07:21 AM (#2434489)

More of an increase in BABIP; I wouldn't expect steals to be a "late blooming" skill.

Lou Brock. He increase his BABIP and lowered his HRs around his age 32 season. For a few seasons thereafter, he held or improved the BBs, but they then went to s4it; the average held and any power never came back.

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Ballou: Big Papi’s power falloff ranks with worst

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