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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Ballou: David Price this voter’s pick for AL Cy Young

Ballou: “He did it! He missed the barn!”

This year, this voter is casting a ballot for American League Cy Young Award, and the No. 1 choice likely will be David Price of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Is Jered Weaver destined to be the Dave Stewart of this decade — the best pitcher over a five-year span, but never the best in any one season?

Actually, Weaver’s credentials may never be better than this year, and Justin Verlander has been better than his won-lost record shows, but Price simply has that completely subjective “Cy Young” look and feel this year.

...Empty ballot

It is a real possibility that nobody on the Red Sox gets a vote in this year’s MVP balloting, and if that happens, it will be the first time ever. The current MVP format was established in 1931, and even the 1932 Red Sox, who were 43-111, had three players get MVP votes, and the ’65 Sox, who were 62-100, had Carl Yastrzemski, Tony Conigliaro and Felix Mantilla get votes.

...If not No. 1, Marlins pitcher Heath Bell ranks in the top five of worst guys in baseball. … Yes, I’ll vote for Roger Clemens for the Hall of Fame. But what if he makes it in, then has a post-Hall comeback? Jim Palmer tried it and failed in 1991, but it would be just like Clemens to actually make it work.

For those keeping scorched at home: That’s the 55th BBWAA vote for Clemens now.

Repoz Posted: September 30, 2012 at 08:07 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. akrasian Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4249460)
Is Jered Weaver destined to be the Dave Stewart of this decade — the best pitcher over a five-year span, but never the best in any one season?

Which 5 year span was Stewart best in? He had a nice 4 year stretch from 1987-1990 - but even then, Clemens was arguably better EVERY season. Significantly lower ERA each year despite playing in a hitter's park as opposed to a pitcher's park, a lot more strikeouts. The only year that Stewart might have a case was 1990, when he threw a lot more innings. But Clemens had an amazing ERA that year, and a lot more Ks. Basically, Stewart had 20 wins each year - but in 1990 the wins argument was trumped by Welch winning 27 somehow.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:13 PM (#4249469)
Similarly it's unlikely that Weaver will have a 5-year span better than Felix and Verlander. For 2010-12, he's well behind Verlander (7 points of ERA+ and 70 innings). The comp to Felix is tough -- 7 points better in ERA+ but 70 fewer innings for Weaver. Expand it to the NL and he's also behind Kershaw (same innings, 6 points of ERA+) and even with Lee.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4249470)
Stewart was better in the same way that Morris was the best pitcher of the 80's. It's all about the wins. And of course he clearly meant to say four year stretch.
   4. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 30, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4249472)
david price is a lot of fun to watch
   5. Loren F. Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4249593)
Price now 20-5, leads the league in ERA, has 205 K, tied for third in WHIP with 1.10. He will garner a lot of Cy Young votes. The problem is that as of today he was 211 IP, which is not a lot for a Cy Young winner that's a starter -- even in this era. Clemens won the NL Cy in 2004 with 214 IP (an undeserved win), and Pedro won the AL Cy Young in 1999 with 213.3 IP (in one of the most dominant pitcher seasons of the generation), and those are the lowest innings totals of starting-pitcher Cy winners since the strike-shortened 1995 season. Much as I believe voters will love the shiny 20 wins and the ERA title, and Price really is a terrific pitcher in a season where no pitcher is really running away with it, I think the low IP total will be a hurdle. If the Tigers win the division, I think it could be Verlander. But what do I know -- Price is 6th in the league in IP and voters may not hold 211 against him.
   6. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:24 PM (#4249595)
Wrong Thread
   7. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 30, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4249608)
If the Tigers win the division, I think it could be Verlander. But what do I know -- Price is 6th in the league in IP and voters may not hold 211 against him.

Cy Young predictor has Verlander #1 with Price very close
   8. Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around Posted: October 01, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4249652)
It is a real possibility that nobody on the Red Sox gets a vote in this year’s MVP balloting, and if that happens, it will be the first time ever. The current MVP format was established in 1931, and even the 1932 Red Sox, who were 43-111, had three players get MVP votes, and the ’65 Sox, who were 62-100, had Carl Yastrzemski, Tony Conigliaro and Felix Mantilla get votes.


I know a ton of people get MVP votes with 10 spots on the ballot, but this seems like an amazing stat.
   9. The District Attorney Posted: October 01, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4249655)
Rany Jazayerli said on the most recent Rany & Joe Show that he thought Eric Hosmer would get you "75 or 80% of the way" towards a David Price trade.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: October 01, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4249677)
Rany Jazayerli said on the most recent Rany & Joe Show that he thought Eric Hosmer would get you "75 or 80% of the way" towards a David Price trade.

Not nearly enough. You're gonna have to throw in Jose Lopez to make that work.

Maybe he meant Gordon. I notice Moustakas has cooled off quite a bit.

Hosmer's year was a major bummer. If memory serves, he had the highest ZiPS projection of any of the fine crop of 22-year-olds coming into the season. So naturally he's been the worst. Anyway, before the season, given contract statuses (Price is about to start getting expensive) Hosmer for Price straight up would have been believable. It doesn't happen now obviously.

It is an interesting question whether the Rays will look to trade Price. He made $4.3 M this year in his first super-2 arb year. Lincecum with 2 CYAs was obviously an extreme case but he went 9/14/18 for his 3 (super-2?) arb years. Felix was a bargain totalling just $24 over his 3 arb years (buyout). The Rays are probably looking at $30M plus for the next three years of Price. That's a lot more than they're paying anybody right now. They can afford it of course, especially with new national TV money on the way, but that's not the way they've operated to this point.

So, in a weird way, Rany might not end up that far off. A typical pattern is:

a) no way the Rays trade Price
b) the Rays could trade Price but only for a package like Jurickson Profar and two other top prospects
c) I can't believe all they could get was Hosmer and a pitching prospect, my team could have beaten that offer.
   11. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 01, 2012 at 10:03 AM (#4249781)
If not No. 1, Marlins pitcher Heath Bell ranks in the top five of worst guys in baseball. …


What is this referring to?
   12. JJ1986 Posted: October 01, 2012 at 10:08 AM (#4249784)
In my head, this guy is Norm MacDonald doing Larry King.
   13. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: October 01, 2012 at 10:47 AM (#4249815)
If not No. 1, Marlins pitcher Heath Bell ranks in the top five of worst guys in baseball. …



What is this referring to?


Yeah, weird throw away line. I even RTFA to see what the context was, but there is no context, just that one liner.
   14. Rally Posted: October 01, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4249927)
"Which 5 year span was Stewart best in? He had a nice 4 year stretch from 1987-1990 - but even then, Clemens was arguably better EVERY season."

Except when they matched up directly, then Stewart absolutely owned Clemens. It was one of the weirdest things I've ever seen.

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