User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets. |
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
Page rendered in 0.4756 seconds
54 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. DKDC Posted: November 30, 2007 at 02:35 PM (#2628979)Wow, that's a terrible offer.
He does have very good defense and speed, and he's easy to make excuses for because he's been young for the levels he's played at.
But until he shows something with his bat, he's not an elite prospect, and therefore not a centerpiece for a Bedard deal.
I like Heilman, but he's a poor fit for the Orioles because he has almost 4 years of MLB service time.
Humber is a decent complementary piece, but that's it.
Don't let the Carlos Gomez fanboys hear you say that.
IMHO it's not that bad an offer. I wouldn't make it if I were the Orioles
because:
1: Bedard really is a stud, he's progressed virtually every year and his peripherals fully support his 121 and 146 ERA+s the last 2 years.
2: There's 2 years to go before he can be a FA.
3: I'm not a Carlos Gomez fanboy.
Personally considering Gomez's athleticism I'm sure out of 30 teams there are at least a handful that view Gomez the way the fanboys do- Omar should be sounding out teams- I suspect a couple are willing to overpay (what I think would be an overpayment) for him.
I can't see that Humber has much trade value right now, he could be a decent starter, he could be crap- considering what he's likely to bring in trade I think the Mets should keep him and give him at east 10 starts or so (I also think Pelfrey should go the pen and be groomed as Wagner's heir, but tehn I'm not running a team...)
It seems like everytime someone mentions that a player is on the market, an article about the Mets offering Gomez and assorted trash for said player immediately follows.
The article is from the Baltimore Sun. Just sayin' is all. Is it your contention that Zrebiec's "industry sources" are actually NY beat writers?
When did Heilman and Humber become assorted trash?
Good point. Heilman still has value, and still may turn out to be a solid #4/#5 starter. The only things I've read about Humber come from Mets fans here, but I was of the perception that he's projected pretty much the same way. So depending on what you think about Gomez, you're getting two solid rotation guys and a top outfield prospect for a guy who's well on his way to putting it all together. It's certainly not a great deal and it probably takes a high opinion of Gomez to make it a good deal, but it's not lousy.
If nothing else, he's a pretty good reliever too.
I don't know if he could start, but hell, he'd probably get $7-8 million as a FA reliever.
I don't think people realize how good he's been as a reliever:
240 IP, 2.99 ERA, 194 H, 14 HRA, 209/73 K/BB
Today. And every other day that Heilman wakes up and is older than Erik Bedard. So no, not "trash" in that he is useless, but "trash" in the sense that no competent team would take him in a package for a younger (even if only by a year) stud pitcher two years away from free agency.
EDIT: Dammit! I meant to make a joke about the Orioles not being a competent team. Just pretend I did and it was funny.
Bedard was arguably the best pitcher in the AL last year, is in his prime, and is two years from FA. Any offer that doesn't include at least one excellent, major league ready prospect is a non-starter IMO. I don't see a player like that here.
Then what are you arguing? Teams dealing elite players are not looking for complimentary pieces to make a playoff run. They are looking for centerpieces to form the basis of their next competitive team. Heilman/Humber whatever have value, but not to the Orioles. Most teams have enough live arms who might make it or not as #4/#5 starters. Why should they take that chance on other team's garbage by dealing their best player?
Sure I will deal you a Stradivari for your Amati. And you know what, I will throw couple of good 50 yr old violins in the bargain. BFD.
Why would the Reds do that? They are never going to be a big spending team, and its not like they have some tiny window for winning. And Bailey will be fine. Not the first hyped up prospect to hit the big leagues and struggle with control.
I sure can't buy this argument. The Mets can afford either- Santana's low in IP over the last four years is 20+ innings higher than Bedard's career high, and his ERA+ has been higher than Bedard's career-high every season but 2007.
I like Bedard. He's not a better pickup than Santana. The contracts do not even this one out.
Then what are you arguing? Teams dealing elite players are not looking for complimentary pieces to make a playoff run. They are looking for centerpieces to form the basis of their next competitive team. Heilman/Humber whatever have value, but not to the Orioles. Most teams have enough live arms who might make it or not as #4/#5 starters. Why should they take that chance on other team's garbage by dealing their best player?
When a team is many players away from contending, a high-upside OF like Carlos Gomez, along with two pitchers who could make up 40% of the starting rotation all have value. If you don't believe me, watch and see the package Baltimore ends up getting for Bedard. It won't be for one guy.
That Heilman isn't "assorted trash"
Sure, Gomez is the type of player they should be after, but Humber probably is not, and Heilman absolutely is not. They're at least 3 years away from making a run at the wild card (pretty optimistic case). He's the guy you pick up the winter before you're hoping to compete, not 3 years out. That's why that package is garbage.
This is silly. Gomez is a player they'd want, and has a good bit of value around the league. Humber is a buy low candidate who held his own in AAA last year (numbers in the PCL were very good), and for all that anyone wants to say he was two years removed from TJ surgery, he wasn't. He was two years removed in July. And from July on, he was dominant. Not saying he's a Joba-level prospect, but the idea that he wouldn't be useful to the O's... seems silly to me.
And if you've decided you can't/won't compete until what, 2011? Then Heilman's not the guy. You go Mulvey instead. Or you spin Heilman off to a team that can use a reliever who has been as good as Heilman. Think that will be hard to find?
Howard, isn't the concern about Humber a scouting one at this point rather than a statistical one?
I think it's pretty mixed. His numbers were good, not dominant. At MLB, his fastball was not what it had been at AAA (due to, I'm guessing, the long layoff, but who can be sure?).
The frustrating part with Humber is I feel like they'd be dealing him at the exact time in his career that the Mets traded Isringhausen- just as he was getting healthy enough to realize his potential. A smart team would deal for him right now, and get a pitching prospect on the other side of TJ surgery (and the rehab) for far less than a typical pitching prospect with his resume and pedigree would cost.
And if you've decided you can't/won't compete until what, 2011? Then Heilman's not the guy. You go Mulvey instead. Or you spin Heilman off to a team that can use a reliever who has been as good as Heilman. Think that will be hard to find?
The point isn't that the Orioles wouldn't be interested in Gomez and Humber, it's that the two of them and a 29 year old reliever are nearly enough for Bedard because that package doesn't include a single top tier, major league ready young player. Milledge, Gomez, and Humber, maybe.
So which part is silly, then? I agreed with you on Gomez, you cede that Heilman is "not the guy," and you suggest Humber probably is valuable to the O's, while I suggest he is probably not. I don't think we're exactly worlds apart in our comments.
That being said, to your earlier suggestion to "watch and see the package" the O's get for Bedard, do you honestly think it won't be better than Gomez/Heilman/Humber? The Mets themselves would likely do better than that.
BA seemed pretty definitive about it in their writeup:
Oh ofcourse! The O's should be gaga over an overworked college pitcher, a RH who throwing in the high 80s after his surgery. And a reliever who is getting expensive, and hasn't shown a third pitch yet. A reliever whose own team preferred pitching Lima/Dave Williams/Brian Lawrence in the rotation rather than stretch him out in the middle of a pennant race. Why, the Orioles should be grateful for such a gracious offer and just throw in Guthrie and Roberts too.
If you are so sure they are serviceable rotation parts, why are they not being plugged into the Mets rotation? Last I heard, the Mets exactly didn't have an excess of pitching arms. Snark aside, if you are going to get a top 10-15 player, the package centers around 2 stud prospects. Humber/Heilman can work as throw-ins, but they are not adding significant value to a rebuilding team.
If I was the GM, I rather take Bailey than some combination of iffy #4/#5 pitchers. He might turn out to be a bust, but atleast I know that if he hits his ceiling, I have something to build around. If Humber hits his ceiling, big deal. I am still left in the middle of suckitude.
MacPhail should trade him to the Dodgers for Kemp and Kershaw and another prospect.
My impression is that a team that brings in Dusty Baker and signs the top closer on the market is looking to win immediately. Adding Bedard to Harang, Arroyo, and Belisle would give the Reds a strong rotation to contend, and the losses of Bailey and Votto likely would not have much impact on the team this year. Griffey should be off the books after this season, and Bruce, Hamilton, Phillips, and Encarnacion would be cheap enough as central figures in the lineup that the team won't need to enter the upper tier in payroll to stay competitive. I think the front office is afraid of losing fan support if the team can't contend in a weak division this year, and thus they may be interested in trading even top prospects (with the exception of Bruce) for a player to get them into the playoffs now.
The "the package is garbage" part of the comments. That's the silly part.
At times Humber still tries to pitch up in the strike zone, and he doesn't have that kind of velocity anymore. His fastball ranges from 87-91 mph after he used to touch 94-95 at Rice.
Curious when this is from- both games I attended this season and scouts I spoke to had Humber at around 91-94 late in the season. I'll certainly be eyeing the gun for his appearances in the spring, that's for sure.
Bedard would just love the NY media because the Baltimore media is so tough!
This is the biggest reason the Mets would need to trade for Bedard- to convince him about New York. You'd have to hope he changes his mind. Doesn't seem like the type of guy who would choose to come to NY on his own.
That being said, to your earlier suggestion to "watch and see the package" the O's get for Bedard, do you honestly think it won't be better than Gomez/Heilman/Humber? The Mets themselves would likely do better than that.
No, I think it will be a bit better than that. I don't think it will be for 1-2 guys, but for 3-4 guys who are prospects.
Bedard is not a top 10-15 player. You may well believe he projects as one (and I probably wouldn't disagree), but you cannot call him one at age 28, after a season of 121 and a season of 146.
My impression is that a team that does that, and has also traded two starting position players for middle relief "help"*, is a team that simply doesn't know what the hell it is doing.
*So the trade hasn't been a disaster because Lopez regressed and Kearns had a bad year- so what, Krivsky could have gotten A LOT more than what he did in packaging those two.
But I have my doubts the Dodgers are even entertaining offers with Kershaw in it.
This kid is getting mad hype right now from every fricken corner of the prospecting community. The Dodgers, a team that traditionally love their prototypical power pitchers, most likely put an insane value on Kershaw.
I just can't see him being dealt.
Err, isn't that point of this exercise? To get an absolute stud player who is under control for the NEXT 2 years?
Sure it is, I'm just quibbling with the nomenclature.
Lowest OPS+ allowed over the last 3 years (min 450 IP)
64 Johan Santana
68 Chris Carpenter
69 Roy Halladay
72 Brandon Webb
74 Carlos Zambrano
75 Erik Bedard
Lowest OPS+ allowed over the last 2 years (min 300 IP)
65 Brandon Webb
69 Johan Santana
71 Erik Bedard
Lowest OPS+ allowed over the last 1 year (min 150 IP)
60 Chris Young
61 Erik Bedard
Am I missing something here?
Howard, I gotta say I'm finding your train of thought to be just strange. No one is advocating for 1-2 guys. What I'm saying (and what others are saying) is that this package (which you've defended while also suggesting it's not good enough and then criticized others for saying the same thing) isn't good enough to get Bedard. Why are you wasting your time defending a package of Heilman/Gomez/Humber while also advocating for 3-4 prospects changing hands? Heilman is not a prospect. You've lost me.
Yes Bedard only pitches 180 ip or so a year...
Seriously I have to think he's in the running for one of the 5 most valuable pitchers going forward right now
What pitchers would you most want over the next 5 years?
Then I misunderstood you.
My position- the package is not "garbage", and is close, but not enough, for Bedard.
Clearer?
its the sound of sharpen knives headed to the Minaya residence.
Humber might have been slowed by the TJ surgery, but come on. He was picked number three overall in the draft. If he hits his ceiling, he's definitely someone who you can build around. And even if he doesn't, he could easily be a good number #3 starter. Last year, he led the PCL in WHIP, he was top 10 in strikeouts, and ERA. His K/9 and K/BB could were pretty ok too.
Thats the thing. Coming out of the draft, he was a power pitcher. Now he is RH finesse artist unless he gets velocity back. He would have to be Greg Maddux to be better than an average starter at best.
His stuff when he was drafted is not the same stuff he possesses currently.
This is the biggest reason the Mets would need to trade for Bedard- to convince him about New York. You'd have to hope he changes his mind. Doesn't seem like the type of guy who would choose to come to NY on his own.
Bedard was viewed as surly by the Baltimore media types, primarily because (imho) he doesn't suffer fools gladly. I don't follow the Metropolitans, but if the AROD bs is any indication, Bedard would grow to loathe the NY media in about fifteen minutes. Of course, former Oriole Mussina (who was similarly viewed as media averse) did OK in NYC and I'm sure there are some players who can do well without dealing media. But Bedard is regarded as something as ornery by the Baltimore media, which is a lightweight compared to NYC or even Philly.
I see what you are saying by having to trade him to ever get him to extend, but if I'm Minaya I have to assume there will only be 2 years of Bedard and a couple draft picks.
Bowden robbed Omar.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main