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Tuesday, September 05, 2017

BAR: Could the Cincinnati Reds have six Gold Glove finalists?

Nope.

Jim Furtado Posted: September 05, 2017 at 02:37 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: gold gloves, reds

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   1. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 05, 2017 at 06:21 PM (#5526538)
I would like this to be a little bit true, because the Reds have allowed 20 runs more than the next worst team. Either their pitching is historically bad on an unprecedented scale, or defensive metrics really aren't as accurate as people think they are. I'm opting to believe the latter.
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:18 PM (#5526571)
I wouldn't rule out "historically bad pitching" so quickly. The Reds have a team ERA+ of 84. They only have one starting pitcher with an ERA+ over 100 and that's Luis Castillo with all of 81 IP. They've allowed 220 home runs so far- 31 more than the 2nd worst team (the Phillies). They've given up 523 walks- 17 more than the 2nd worst team (Marlins). They have a team FIP of 5.09- 2nd worst is the Braves with 4.68. And don't forget that the Reds had horrendous pitching last year too.
   3. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:36 PM (#5526581)
This is the worst Reds pitching staff I have ever seen. And, I lived through the Bob Boone years.... Just horrific. Small gleam of light though... Castillo looks good, Tyler Mahle is getting his chance. Maybe, just maybe Sal Romano can be major league average
   4. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:42 PM (#5526582)
Plus, desclafini and finnegan have missed the entire season. Maybe they are available next year.
   5. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:43 PM (#5526583)
Yeah, the pitching is bad, and the park is a pinball machine. But it would still be very curious for a team that bad to have that many great defenders.
   6. Greg K Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:43 PM (#5526584)
Wow. For a team 20 games below .500 the Reds actually look like they've done a decent job scoring runs.

I guess their outfield isn't giving them much...but on the infield they've got a line of OPS+: 168, 128, 140, 125. And it looks like Cozart (140) is the only that's missed significant time.

If the rest of the team was doing anything at all, Gennett, Cozart (who I think of as a glove man only), and Suarez would be the talk of the league!
   7. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:49 PM (#5526591)
Yeah, the offense isn't the reason they are 20 below.
   8. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: September 05, 2017 at 07:49 PM (#5526592)
Either their pitching is historically bad on an unprecedented scale

Yes. They shattered the HR allowed record last year with 258 (second was 213). They're on pace to break it this season.

They were the only pitching staff with a negative fWAR last year. This year they're above zero, but still dead last. And as mentioned above, it's actually looked decent the past couple of weeks.
   9. stevegamer Posted: September 05, 2017 at 08:16 PM (#5526609)
The Reds may be the worst pitching staff I've ever seen, period. Historically bad, but not quite on an unprecedented scale; because they are competing with last year's staff which is literally setting a precedent for this one.
   10. Chris Fluit Posted: September 05, 2017 at 08:19 PM (#5526612)
But it would still be very curious for a team that bad to have that many great defenders.

They don't. Sportswriter following last place team wishcasts fielding awards because he has nothing else positive to talk about. Kansas City writers used to do this until the Royals actually got good again.

The Reds are actually a pretty good defensive team. They're second in the NL in defensive WAR (behind the Dodgers) and tied for 2nd in fielding runs (with the Cubs). But they won't have 6 Gold Glove finalists. The writer himself admits that it won't happen. The Reds had 2 finalists last year. They'll probably have a similar number this year.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: September 05, 2017 at 10:09 PM (#5526701)
The Reds had 2 finalists last year. They'll probably have a similar number this year.


If I'm betting I imagine that Hamilton and Barnhart have legitimate shots at making the finalist list... and the point about Duvall might be a good point, if only 4 people even qualify for consideration, it's anyone's guess who might make the list of top three. (list is Duvall, Scwarber, Ozuna and Kemp). I don't see Votto getting the votes to take it away from Rizzo/Belt/Goldschmidt(and the numbers aren't helping him in this case). Cozart won't even enter a discussion of also rans(Russell, Crawford, Story, and Seager are bigger names and better fielders) Catcher you have to assume Posey and Molina are both going to be finalist, so that leaves either Barhart or Pina getting the third slot, both having great years, but Barhart didn't have any reputation of being a great defender before this season, at the same time Pina is not someone many people have heard of, so Wieters or someone else might sneak past both of them. Suarez has a problem in that Rendon and Arenado have such glowing reputations, (see Posey/Molina) that anyone else that makes the list is just filling out the required third slot, Gyorko is having the best defensive year at third, but if he gets any votes it would surprise me, he's just not flashy or thought of as a third baseman, if anything, my money goes on Turner again getting the last slot, although Bryant might end up with it...
   12. Walt Davis Posted: September 05, 2017 at 10:16 PM (#5526707)
Yep, the Reds' staff stinks. "Historic" is a bit hard to judge given how pitcher usage has changed over time plus the more recent HR explosion but it's been quite bad for quite some time.

Last year they were tied for 14th in ERA with Col, AZ being behind both. But they were dead last in FIP and by a TON ... 5.24 vs AZ's 4.50. That's pretty mind-boggling. They gave up the most HR by 45, the most BB by 33 and had the worst K/BB (1.95 vs next-worst 2.15). They even hit the most batters.

This season they are easily worst by ERA, FIP, HR, BB/9 ... and tied for the lead in HBP. Their K/BB is better and they've made it all the way up to 13th.

Some evidence of defensive improvement ... their RA-ERA gap this year is just 0.2 while last year it was 0.36. Last year they were roughly middle of the pack in number of errors and field% while this year they have the 3rd fewest errors and 3rd best FP. On the fancy stats, they've gone from -11 Rfield to +29. That may seem like an unrealistic jump but that -11 was the result of:

Bruce -13
Peraza -8
Phillips -7
Tyler Holt -7 in just 381 innings
Votto -14

Bruce, Phillips and Holt are gone. Peraza is not quite as bad with -6 in more innings; Votto had always been good before (acc to Rfield) and has returned this year to +8 ... maybe that -14 was over-stated.

Meanwhile the 2016 Reds had Cozart +8, Duvall +16 and Hamilton +15. This year those three are +3, +6 and +8 ... so if anything they would seem to have been uncharacteristically high last year.

Other than Votto's big turn-around, most of the improvement is due to an impossible-sounding +16 from C Tucker Barnhart in a mere 86 starts. Hmmm ... it's extra confusing given the fielding table gives him an Rdrs of just +9. Obviously I have no idea how Rfield for Cs is calculated.

So looked at an individual level, the change in defensive production looks sensible -- they got rid of some poor defenders, Votto returned to being Votto, their plus defenders remained plus defenders (but regressed).
   13. TDF, trained monkey Posted: September 06, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5527194)
I love how people over react. TFA opens with this: The short answer to the question in the headline is no. The likelihood that six Reds players wind up as finalists for a Gold Glove this offseason is infinitesimally small.

But what's the article is about (and what's interesting) is should they? And the writer does a good job of describing the candidacy of each of those six:

I don't see Votto getting the votes to take it away from Rizzo/Belt/Goldschmidt(and the numbers aren't helping him in this case).
Votto is listed as the least likely of the 6 to be a finalist. But it should be noted that the numbers aren't what you think - he's 2nd in TZ runs (but way behind Goldschmidt), 3rd in DRS (behind Goldschmidt, 1 run behind Rizzo), 2nd (to Belt) in UZR. By the numbers, he's certainly one of the 3 best.
Cozart won't even enter a discussion of also rans(Russell, Crawford, Story, and Seager are bigger names and better fielders)
Listed as 2nd least likely. The author acknowledges his shortcomings, but he's listed because of his reputation around the league.
Catcher you have to assume Posey and Molina are both going to be finalist, so that leaves either Barhart or Pina getting the third slot, both having great years, but Barhart didn't have any reputation of being a great defender before this season, at the same time Pina is not someone many people have heard of, so Wieters or someone else might sneak past both of them.
Again, addressed in the article. But Weiters? His reputation died 5 years ago, when he quit being above average defensively. Pena barely qualifies, with just 684 defensive innings by the cut-off (660 needed), and can hardly have much of a reputation given his <200 innings of average defense over 3 seasons (spread over 6 years) prior to this.
Suarez has a problem in that Rendon and Arenado have such glowing reputations, (see Posey/Molina) that anyone else that makes the list is just filling out the required third slot, Gyorko is having the best defensive year at third, but if he gets any votes it would surprise me, he's just not flashy or thought of as a third baseman, if anything, my money goes on Turner again getting the last slot, although Bryant might end up with it...
And also addressed - this award is Arenado's.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: September 06, 2017 at 07:25 PM (#5527532)
I wasn't even sure who Wieters was playing for this year ... and I see his offense has totally cratered. His career as a starting C is probably over but he can probably carry on as a backup for as long as he wants. He has a player option at $10.5 and he's a fool if he doesn't take it.

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