Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Barra: Baseball’s Most Fascinating MVP Race This Century Gets Decided Today

Quite moving, as Barra checks in with the “more statically minded ones”...like Murray Chass!

“I don’t know how anyone can get around the fact that Miguel Cabrera is the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years,” said MLB Network’s Peter Gammons two weeks ago, summing up the opinion of much of the pundit class. Retired New York Times columnist Murray Chass has blogged that Cabrera is “the real thing” and “has demonstrated that throughout his 10-year career.”

But the argument for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim’s Mike Trout has become a cause célèbre for baseball analysts, especially younger, more statically minded ones. The lens of history be damned, they say: When you dig deep into the numbers, Trout is, as SB Nation’s Rob Neyers put it to me, “a much better all-around player.” And the thing is, if you follow their math, team Trout is actually right.

...Then, finally, there’s WAR. I don’t mean the battle being waged between traditional sportswriters and the new breed of baseball analysts; I mean the so-called superstar stat WAR, which stands for Wins Above Replacement. As the official definition reads: a single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player would add.

For the 2012 season, Trout led the AL at 10.7 while Cabrera’s WAR value was 6.9. You don’t have to accept WAR or even understand it to see that Trout was the most valuable player in the American League this season. The difference between his performance and Cabrera’s is not so great that a victory for Cabrera should be considered a disgrace. But in nearly all statistics, simple or complex, that contribute to winning games, Mike Trout is just a little better.

Repoz Posted: November 15, 2012 at 09:20 AM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dale Sams Posted: November 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4303274)
Re the MLB roundtable: Hunh, Olbermann is almost..likeable...when he sticks to sports.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: November 15, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4303674)
The difference between his performance and Cabrera’s is not so great that a victory for Cabrera should be considered a disgrace.

Huh? If somebody wants to question WAR and recalculate things to show that it's closer than WAR portrays then fine. Or if you want to argue there's stuff WAR misses or that Cabrera was super double clutchy or something then OK. But the WAR difference is nearly 4 f'ing wins. Trout, by WAR, has provided over 50% more value than Cabrera. How big does a gap have to be to be a "disgrace"? (Which is not to say it would be the most disgraceful (by WAR) decision in MVP history.)

“I don’t know how anyone can get around the fact that Miguel Cabrera is the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years,” said MLB Network’s Peter Gammons two weeks ago

a) it's not hard.

b) as we all know, many TC winners didn't win MVP.

c) When Yaz won it, he had 12 WAR, leading the AL. (He led the AL in 3 or 4 years); when Robinson won it, he led the AL in WAR at a Cabrera-esque 7.3; when Williams won in 42 and 47, he led the AL in WAR (also in the 2 years they did give him the MVP and two more on top of that). If anything, a WAR-based MVP would probably have "recognized" the TC winners more often than the actual MVP voters.

d) Getting back to Robinson, WAR is saying that Cabrera this year was as good as Robinson in 66 -- what a horrible insult! It's Cabrera's bad luck he ran into a guy having a Willie Mays type season.

Huh? B-R has added JAWS.
   3. STIGGLES and the search for ha, penis Posted: November 15, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4303695)
When you dig deep into the numbers,
you really don't actually have to do that. cabrera was a marginally better hitter, but trout was a better baserunner and a better defensive player by miles.
   4. STIGGLES and the search for ha, penis Posted: November 15, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4303722)
oh, and for those of you trout supporters, michael wilbon just called you sabr-loons on ESPN.
   5. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: November 15, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4303725)
Honestly, I feel like I did during the '04 election (if you'll forgive the analogy). Don't expect that my guy (Trout) will win, but demographics favor my position in the long run.
   6. Tschingsch Posted: November 15, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4303729)
“I don’t know how anyone can get around the fact that Miguel Cabrera is the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years,” said MLB Network’s Peter Gammons two weeks ago, summing up the opinion of much of the pundit class.


OK, Maybe I'm missing something, but Gammons has already stated that his vote would have been for Trout. So, apparently he doesn't know how he himself was able to get around the fact that Miguel Cabrera is the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years?
   7. Just drawing conclusions on the wall Posted: November 16, 2012 at 01:04 AM (#4304041)
I am sure this has been mentioned in some thread on this subject, but the argument “I don’t know how anyone can get around the fact that Miguel Cabrera is the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years,” is saying that they would vote for Mike Trout if josh Hamilton had hit 2 more home runs.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Shooty is obsessed with the latest hoodie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogWhat the Hall of Fame elections will look like through 2022
(15 - 9:57am, Jan 19)
Last: Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant

NewsblogClass of 2017 awaits call from Hall of Fame | MLB.com
(92 - 9:56am, Jan 19)
Last: SoSH U at work

Newsblog2017 Baseball Hall of Fame election results | MLB.com
(102 - 9:53am, Jan 19)
Last: Chris Fluit

NewsblogOTP 16 Jan. 2017: The ‘honor’ Trumps politics in scheduling Cubs’ White House visit
(1020 - 9:53am, Jan 19)
Last: Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant

NewsblogOn the Polo Grounds: When Fans Were Fans
(21 - 9:48am, Jan 19)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogRyan Thibs has his 2017 HOF Tracker Up and Running
(932 - 9:47am, Jan 19)
Last: SoSH U at work

Sox TherapySox In The Hall
(2 - 9:41am, Jan 19)
Last: villageidiom

Sox Therapy2017 in Review
(4 - 9:35am, Jan 19)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogRead the open letter Tim Raines wrote after learning he'd been inducted into the Hall of Fame | MLB.com
(4 - 9:30am, Jan 19)
Last: asinwreck

NewsblogBraves zero in on Sarasota County for spring training
(14 - 9:29am, Jan 19)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

NewsblogJosh Hamilton Prepared to Earn Spot on Rangers' Roster
(8 - 9:11am, Jan 19)
Last: Bug Selig

NewsblogRelocation Less Common in MLB Than NFL, Other Leagues
(43 - 9:07am, Jan 19)
Last: BrianBrianson

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(1146 - 8:15am, Jan 19)
Last: Bitter Mouse, Space Tyrant

NewsblogMatheny: Spring training 'priorities' may look different this year | stltoday.com
(9 - 3:20am, Jan 19)
Last: Fancy Pants with a clinging marmoset on his Handle

NewsblogJose Bautista close to signing with Blue Jays | MLB.com
(13 - 11:00pm, Jan 18)
Last: Tin Angel

Page rendered in 0.1426 seconds
47 querie(s) executed