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Monday, April 16, 2018

Bartolo Colón Almost Did the Impossible

There was Colón, slicing and dicing the Astros through seven perfect innings, just six outs separating him from what would’ve arguably been the greatest pitching feat in MLB history. Facing one of the most juggernaut offenses the game has ever seen, Colón set his first 21 batters down in order using that diesel-powered fastball and virtually nothing else, until a walk by Correa to open the eighth ended his chase of history and a double by Josh Reddick right after closed the book on the subsequent short-lived no-hit bid.

Bored Posted: April 16, 2018 at 12:47 PM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, bartolo colon, rangers

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   1. The Duke Posted: April 16, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5654658)
6 outs away from arguably the best single game Performance ever. Big sexy is back. I hope he can keep going
   2. McCoy Posted: April 16, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5654678)
Pass on a donut?
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 16, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5654739)
6 outs away from arguably the best single game Performance ever.

No way to beat Larsen, unless you throw a perfecto in G7 of the World Series.
   4. Batman Posted: April 16, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5654749)
It would have been one of the best pitching feats and definitely one of the most fun, but "one of the most juggernaut offenses the game has ever seen" is a little bit of an oversell.
   5. For the Turnstiles (andeux) Posted: April 16, 2018 at 05:11 PM (#5654803)
I was thinking it would have been right up there with Dock Ellis' no-hitter.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 16, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5654805)
I was thinking it would have been right up there with Dock Ellis' no-hitter.

The one he pitched on acid?
   7. Swoboda is freedom Posted: April 16, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5654814)
I was thinking it would have been right up there with Dock Ellis' no-hitter.

The one he pitched on acid?


Bartolo is probably on antacids.
   8. The Duke Posted: April 16, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5654836)
7. That made me laugh
   9. Howie Menckel Posted: April 16, 2018 at 06:30 PM (#5654844)
from the headline, I was sure the answer would be food-related (or possibly, "post-food-related")
   10. The Honorable Ardo Posted: April 16, 2018 at 06:48 PM (#5654851)
Justin Verlander gave up one hit, looked as dominant as I've ever seen him... and his team lost. A tip of the hat to Senor Colon.
   11. AndrewJ Posted: April 16, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5654880)
Primey for #7.
   12. Astroenteritis Posted: April 16, 2018 at 09:46 PM (#5654966)
Bartolo is probably on antacids.


Indigestion is a known symptom of consuming too much primordial soup.

(OK, he's not that old.)
   13. RMc Has Bizarre Ideas to Fix Baseball Posted: April 17, 2018 at 07:12 AM (#5655078)
He's just 60 wins shy of 300, folks!
   14. SandyRiver Posted: April 17, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5655135)
No way to beat Larsen, unless you throw a perfecto in G7 of the World Series.


Or Harvey Haddix, retiring the first 36 batters on a good-hitting Braves team (Matthews, Aaron, Adcock, etc.) before an IF error broke the string and led to him losing the game (on a "Marrero thread" play.)
   15. Rally Posted: April 17, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5655193)
He's just 60 wins shy of 300, folks!


Since his comeback in 2011, he has averaged 12 per year, so he could do that before he turns 50.

If that actually happened is he a HOFer? Does the general love Bartolo gets as a fat old pitcher who somehow still gets the job done override the automatic no vote that goes to steroid offenders?
   16. Rally Posted: April 17, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5655194)
No way to beat Larsen, unless you throw a perfecto in G7 of the World Series.


By a score of 1-0, with the winning run scoring on your own homer, a walk-off shot in the bottom of the 9th. That would be tough to top. Can't wait until Ohtani does that.

   17. Batman Posted: April 17, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5655197)
By a score of 1-0, with the winning run scoring on your own homer, a walk-off shot in the bottom of the 9th. That would be tough to top.
Make it the bottom of the 13th (to outdo Haddix) and it's an inside-the-park homer for Colon.

Then, since nothing will ever top that, baseball ascends to heaven.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 17, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5655201)
and it's an inside-the-park homer for Colon.

This would require all three outfielders to suffer debilitating injuries simultaneously.
   19. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5655206)
This would require all three outfielders to suffer debilitating injuries simultaneously.


And both middle infielders, likely.
   20. Tony S Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5655219)
Apparently shutting down the Astros' offense isn't all that difficult anymore. They mustered all of three hits and one run last night off James Paxton.
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5655222)
And both middle infielders, likely.
I'd say at least half the catchers in the league could probably retrieve the ball and get back to the plate in time to tag Colon.
   22. bunyon Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5655228)
This would require all three outfielders to suffer debilitating injuries simultaneously.


And both middle infielders, likely.


And the pitcher.

Catcher, too.

Basically, Colon would need to hit a fair ball and have all 9 of the opposing team suddenly swept to heaven in the Rapture. That would give him a thousand years to circle the bases. So, it'll be close.
   23. bunyon Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:32 PM (#5655229)
Half a coke to ElRoy.
   24. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5655239)
Basically, Colon would need to hit a fair ball and have all 9 of the opposing team suddenly swept to heaven in the Rapture. That would give him a thousand years to circle the bases. So, it'll be close.
And even if, despite the steroids and the other family and whatnot, Colon were also included in the Rapture, the Rapturers would probably have to recalibrate the tractor beam or whatever is sweeping people up a few times to get it to Bartolo-strength. That might give him enough time to cross the plate.
   25. SandyRiver Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:52 PM (#5655243)
How insulting to Bartolo's running ability!
I think he could do it in the following scenario, could be at Fenway or Coors but as a Bosox fan I'll choose the former. Colon lines one into right-center, the CF tries and misses the diving catch, having his wind knocked out upon the landing while the ball rolls to the farthest corner of the Triangle. RF trips and falls with the same effect as the CF's landing. Thus all 3 OFs get to the ball at once and knock each other out. By the time anyone else realizes that (disbelief reigns for 10 seconds), Colon is rounding 2nd and by the time the SS discovers which unconscious OF is lying on the ball, it's too late.
   26. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 17, 2018 at 12:58 PM (#5655246)
Should we be taking into account that Bartolo thundering around the bases at full speed might create a localized seismic effect significant enough to knock fielders off their feet?
   27. Ziggy's screen name Posted: April 17, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5655257)
Is the flagpole still in fair territory in whatever we're calling the park in Houston? Maybe a long fly ball that gets snared in the flag/rigging, and Colon circles the bases while Springer vainly tries to climb the flagpole to retrieve the ball. That might do it.
   28. PepTech Posted: April 17, 2018 at 01:05 PM (#5655258)
I'm thinking a Dark Knight Rises-style sinkhole would be needed in the outfield, but I suppose that might trigger some kind of automatic double rule.
   29. Batman Posted: April 17, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5655284)
Statcast says that it took Colon 11.4 seconds to go from home to second on a double he hit in 2016. If we correct for the amount he's slowed down in the last two years and assume he would need a 45-minute break somewhere around shortstop, theoretical physics shows you he could make it around the bases in less than two and a half hours.
   30. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 17, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5655299)
If we correct for the amount he's slowed down in the last two years and assume he would need a 45-minute break somewhere around shortstop, theoretical physics shows you he could make it around the bases in less than two and a half hour
That assumes he proceeds directly around the bases, though (accounting for the break at shortstop). More likely he would go eat some sancocho, throw back a couple of Mama Juanas, maybe start another family or two...he's a busy man.
   31. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 17, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5655305)
If that actually happened is he a HOFer? Does the general love Bartolo gets as a fat old pitcher who somehow still gets the job done override the automatic no vote that goes to steroid offenders?


I mean, presumably, it would put him around 60-65 WAR, 3,000 K, with maybe a ERA+ of like 103.

He wouldn't be *deserving*, IMO. But he'd be better than some guys who are in, which would probably get him some votes, likely from the people who put too much stock in his undeserved Cy
   32. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: April 17, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5655311)
Jamie Moyer is on this year's HOF ballot, so we'll see how he does and then give Colon a bonus because of obesity and the Last Expo factor.
   33. Khrushin it bro Posted: April 17, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5655313)
How long did his home run trot take?
   34. Zonk will have the cheese plate with your whine Posted: April 17, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5655332)
I mean, presumably, it would put him around 60-65 WAR, 3,000 K, with maybe a ERA+ of like 103.


IDK... even somehow getting to 300 wins - just pro-rating his WAR numbers/guesstimating over his last 4-5 years still puts him well shy of 60.

BBREF has him at 48.5 now. His (re?)breakout old season in 2013 with the A's was worth 5.7 - but that was a truly excellent season he seems unlikely to reproduce. His perfectly fine years with the Mets were worth 0.5, 1.2, and 3.1.

Anyway... even right now - he's actually a pretty fair approximation of Jack Morris. At least, he laps Jack pretty handily on both WAR (48.5 to 44) and WAA (18 to 9)... though, that 18 WAA likely doesn't hold up (his 18 excellent innings thus far added a whole WAA; not seeing that hold).

Obviously, we're playing "if... then..." games - and sucks to do that with someone like Morris, but whatever. If TEH CLUTCH! works for Morris, then why TEH FAT! for Bartolo?

I wouldn't pass over a more deserving candidate to find room for him, but if I had a ballot with a spare spot? There would be worse things than a fun guy who defied the career grim reaper about half a dozen times.
   35. Zonk will have the cheese plate with your whine Posted: April 17, 2018 at 02:31 PM (#5655334)
Jamie Moyer is on this year's HOF ballot, so we'll see how he does and then give Colon a bonus because of obesity and the Last Expo factor.


Moyer actually beats both Colon and Morris on WAR -- 50 on the dot... 12.7 WAA.

He's also got 6 more wins than Morris - and about 250 more IP.

Of course, hes' also got an ugly ERA/FIP especially compared to both... same ERA+ though.

   36. Swoboda is freedom Posted: April 17, 2018 at 02:34 PM (#5655338)
Of course, hes' also got an ugly ERA/FIP especially compared to both... same ERA+ though.

Come on, no one can out ugly Colon.
   37. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: April 17, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5655341)
Home runs given up, all-time:

#1 Jamie Moyer (522)
#12 Bartolo Colon (408) - active leader
#16 Jack Morris (389)
   38. SoSH U at work Posted: April 17, 2018 at 03:29 PM (#5655383)
Jamie Moyer is on this year's HOF ballot, so we'll see how he does


I predict he'll get 10 votes and fail to see a second ballot. Anyone wanna bet?
   39. Zonk will have the cheese plate with your whine Posted: April 17, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5655390)
Jamie Moyer is on this year's HOF ballot, so we'll see how he does

I predict he'll get 10 votes and fail to see a second ballot. Anyone wanna bet?


I'll cover all of SoSH's action with the line set at 10 votes :-)
   40. BDC Posted: April 17, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5655399)
Without looking it up, I figured that Colon's most similar pitcher might be Bobo Newsom. I wasn't far off. Both Newsom and Colon pitched in the majors from their mid-20s through mid-40s. Newsom's career ERA+ was 107, Colon's 108. Colon has started about 50 more ML games; Newsom, because he went deeper in games and pitched far more in relief, threw about 400 more innings. Colon has 49 pitching bWAR and Newsom 52; factor in hitting (or lack thereof) and they're almost even by bWAR.

But Colon lasted longer as a major-league starter than Bobo Newsom, which is in itself pretty impressive. (Newsom probably started a few more games as a professional because he went back to the Southern Association for three years in his early 40s, about the same ages that Colon played for the Mets.)

Closest comps to Colon by major-league starts and ERA+:

Player           WAR  GS ERAGF   W   L  ERA  FIP
Jerry Koosman   57.2 527  110 43 222 209 3.36 3.26
Jack Powell     55.8 516  106 57 245 254 2.97 3.01
Red Ruffing     55.2 538  109 69 273 225 3.80 3.93
Bartolo Colon   48.5 530  108  2 240 176 4.03 4.08
Jack Morris     44.0 527  105 10 254 186 3.90 3.94 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/17/2018.
   41. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 17, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5655408)
IDK... even somehow getting to 300 wins - just pro-rating his WAR numbers/guesstimating over his last 4-5 years still puts him well shy of 60.


I think this gets into the question of: "Does he have to pitch at a certain level for a team to be willing to give him a chance at 47, 48, 49, etc?"

I wonder how long teams would put up with even the 2014-15 versions of Colon (An ERA+ of 88 and 1.7 total WAR) to say nothing of the abject disaster of 2017. I mean, he got a job after 2017, so anything is possible, but I can't imagine that's a long term plan for success (I.E 60 wins).
   42. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 17, 2018 at 04:09 PM (#5655410)
I'll cover all of SoSH's action with the line set at 10 votes :-)


Under.
   43. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 17, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5655433)
Edit to 42. Oops. I'm not smart
   44. bunyon Posted: April 17, 2018 at 05:26 PM (#5655478)
I'm all for rigorous analysis of playing careers but if Colon somehow pitches, league average or just below, until he's 50 and wins 300 games? Put the man in the hall. The HOF is a lot of things. It should be a lot of things. One of those things is fun.

I think when I found sabermetrics in the late 90s and started following those discussions I had a much smaller hall than most people I knew. After listening to all the career dissection and seeing the PED guys omitted, I'm now basically of the mind: put the borderline guys in. I mean, a guy that pitches until he's 50 and wins 300? And you want to omit him? Get your heads out of your stat sheets and relax.
   45. Endless Trash Posted: April 18, 2018 at 02:52 AM (#5655785)
I would put him in. His story is too much fun.

He has no chance, however, at the hall of faim. Right? Right?

I'll show myself out.
   46. McCoy Posted: April 18, 2018 at 07:27 AM (#5655793)
The HOF is a lot of things. It should be a lot of things. One of those things is fun.

Not sure I follow. HoF player inductees are kind of only one thing and that is supposed to be great players. Now if you're advocating that we put Bartolo's jersey and locker on display in the museum I see no reason not to but that is different than being on a plaque. Having said that if Bartolo plays until he is 50 and wins 300 games I'm pretty sure they will induct him into the Hall.
   47. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 18, 2018 at 09:43 AM (#5655819)
Put the man in the hall. The HOF is a lot of things. It should be a lot of things. One of those things is fun.


I get what you're saying, but I disagree, and echo #46. The museum is the place where you can celebrate the fun, the quirky, the unique, the interesting. The Hall itself should be about greatness.

It also seems to me that a large part of the enjoyment of Colon seems to be based on the idea he's a fat, unathletic, guy—no pun intended. He's not the first player to play well at 45, or the first to play into his late 40s. (Julio Franco sends his regards)

   48. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 18, 2018 at 10:19 AM (#5655843)
The Hall itself should be about greatness.

Jack Morris and Jim Rice are in, plus about a dozen undeserving members of the Frankie Frisch Superfriends.

If Colon gets 300, of course he goes in. Not going to happen, unfortunately.
   49. ajnrules Posted: April 18, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5655845)
Not sure I follow. HoF player inductees are kind of only one thing and that is supposed to be great players. Now if you're advocating that we put Bartolo's jersey and locker on display in the museum I see no reason not to but that is different than being on a plaque. Having said that if Bartolo plays until he is 50 and wins 300 games I'm pretty sure they will induct him into the Hall.


Roger Clemens pitched until he was 45, won over 350 games, and has fewer PED suspensions than Bartolo Colon, and he's not getting into the Hall anytime soon. Of course he didn't pitch until he was 50.

Bartolo's a shoo-in for the Shine of the Eternals at the Baseball Reliquary.
   50. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 18, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5655850)
Roger Clemens pitched until he was 45, won over 350 games, and has fewer PED suspensions than Bartolo Colon, and he's not getting into the Hall anytime soon. Of course he didn't pitch until he was 50.


Well, that's all true, but Colon is not a raging ####### who tried to kill Mike Piazza with a splintered bat.
   51. ajnrules Posted: April 18, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5655857)
Colon is not a raging ####### who tried to kill Mike Piazza with a splintered bat.

That's true, but Colon has likely finished off several Pizzas. I'm sure some of those were named Mike.
   52. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: April 18, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5655872)

Well, that's all true, but Colon is not a raging ####### who tried to kill Mike Piazza with a splintered bat.

No, although I'm a bit surprised that you don't seem to care about his "secret second family". (I put that in quotes given it's unclear how much of a secret it was and for how long. By the time it became public his wife was already aware.)
   53. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 18, 2018 at 11:13 AM (#5655881)
Jack Morris and Jim Rice are in, plus about a dozen undeserving members of the Frankie Frisch Superfriends.


This probably sounds arbitrary and pedantic, but to me, it's one thing to ask one set of voters to use consistency when evaluating Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner on the same ballot, and, if you're going to mistakenly vote Hoffman in, at least follow your own footsteps and vote Wagner as well. It's a whole other thing to ask a writer in 2024 to vote for Colon because a former player voted for his buddies 50 years ago.

I think there comes a point where we shouldn't hold future groups accountable for prior mistakes. Asking the same group, (or a group that is mostly the same) to apply consistency in a given year (or over a few) is okay. Where you draw that line is up to you.
   54. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 18, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5655896)
I wonder how long teams would put up with even the 2014-15 versions of Colon (An ERA+ of 88 and 1.7 total WAR) to say nothing of the abject disaster of 2017. I mean, he got a job after 2017, so anything is possible, but I can't imagine that's a long term plan for success (I.E 60 wins).


His 2017 would have been good enough to make him the Reds' staff ace....

As long as the Reds exist, there will be a team that Bartolo is good enough to pitch for.

   55. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 18, 2018 at 12:07 PM (#5655915)
No, although I'm a bit surprised that you don't seem to care about his "secret second family". (I put that in quotes given it's unclear how much of a secret it was and for how long. By the time it became public his wife was already aware.)

I don't think he's a good person, although I don't know it's any worse than players banging groupies after the game. But, if we keep all the adulterers out of Cooperstown, it's going to be a very, very small Hall.
   56. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: April 18, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5655944)
But, if we keep all the adulterers out of Cooperstown, it's going to be a very, very small Hall.

Chipper Jones was just elected with 97+% of the vote, despite having an affair which resulted in a kid. Just as a recent example.

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