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Monday, December 16, 2013

Baseball America: 2014 Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Xander Bogaerts, ss/3b
2. Henry Owens, lhp
3. Jackie Bradley, of
4. Allen Webster, rhp
5. Blake Swihart, c
6. Garin Cecchini, 3b
7. Mookie Betts, 2b
8. Brandon Workman, rhp
9. Matt Barnes, rhp
10. Trey Ball, lhp

The emergence of Bogaerts (with 2012 first-rounder Deven Marrero not far behind) rendered Jose Iglesias expendable at the trade deadline. Third baseman Garin Cecchini led the minors with a .443 on-base percentage, giving the Red Sox a depth of talent on the left side of the infield that few can rival.

Center fielder Jackie Bradley joins Bogaerts as a player who could be ready to assume an everyday big league role as soon as Opening Day. Behind Workman, the organization featured three potential big league starters (righthanders Allen Webster, Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo) in the Triple-A Pawtucket rotation by season’s end.

The strength of the system runs far deeper than just Triple-A, however. High Class A Salem had a loaded roster all season. Top pitching prospect Henry Owens, a southpaw, thrived there before moving up to Double-A, while up-the-middle players such as catcher Blake Swihart and second baseman Mookie Betts helped Salem win the Carolina League title.

The organization also added high-ceiling amateurs in 2013, taking lefthander Trey Ball with the No. 7 overall pick in the draft and a potentially elite bat in Dominican third baseman Rafael Devers.

Thanks to KL.

Repoz Posted: December 16, 2013 at 02:17 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4618948)
Very deep system. I think ZIPS like Barnes a lot for next year. When the seventh overall pick in the draft is your tenth best prospect, that's some good work there.
   2. Matt Welch Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:07 PM (#4618980)
Some outstanding names on that list. Mookie Betts? Trey Ball? Blake Swihart? Here I'd thought a guy named "Xander" would win by forfeit.
   3. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4618984)
Deep and high ceiling. That's a good combination.
   4. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:17 PM (#4618987)
Is Rubby De La Rosa no longer someone of interest, or is he no longer a prospect?
   5. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:27 PM (#4619000)
When the seventh overall pick in the draft is your tenth best prospect, that's some good work there.


Well, that or they made a terrible pick :)

Not a terribly surprising list, although I think Webster winds up as a reliever, which takes quite a bit off his ceiling, and Barnes/Workman project as back-end guys at best. Owens is probably the only guy with a shot at being a 3rd starter-type or better, but he only has 6 starts above high-A. Still, I think all of them have a pretty good shot at having careers in MLB, which is pretty nice.
   6. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:29 PM (#4619002)
Is Rubby De La Rosa no longer someone of interest, or is he no longer a prospect?


Both :(

He's of interest in the same way that lots of guys with good stuff that they can't control are of interest. He doesn't throw 100MPH anymore, his stuff isn't that overpowering, and he doesn't know where it's going. If he can learn to control it he could be interesting, but you can say that about a lot of guys.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:36 PM (#4619012)
I think Rubby's still interesting. He'd be better off in a worse organization, though, where they'd give him a clean shot at a rotation slot.
   8. Sonic Youk Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:44 PM (#4619020)
He was still coming back from TJ, so I think we still need to wait an see. I've got serious doubts that much of anyone who sits at 100 is going to have a long career as a starter, though.

I saw that Ben Badler tweeted that all 10 have a shot at the top 100. And that doesn't include Ranaudo, who made the midseason top 50. Bogaerts is the only über prospect here, but this system has a bunch of depth. And so many of them are in the high minors, which is also nice.
   9. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: December 16, 2013 at 03:45 PM (#4619021)
I'm also a little surprised to see Betts on this list. He's generally seemed like more of a stathead favorite than a scouty one. The name must help, though. Mookie Betts really is a fantastic baseball name. You want him to succeed just based on that.
   10. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 16, 2013 at 06:38 PM (#4619162)
Is Bradley JR that impressive of a prospect? He's handled AA and AAA at 22-23 but I see him as a low average, low power hitter with walks who doesn't steal bases. Something like .250/.330/.350.

What does Dan project him as?

   11. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 16, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4619172)
What does Dan project him as?


can't find, but at fangraphs Steamer and Oliver both have him around .250/.330/.400

he did have only 9 home runs in 2012, but with 42 doubles
he had 10 in the minors last year (374 PAs) followed by 3 in Boston

I wouldn't say he has *power* but he doesn't profile to be a .350 slugging slap hitter either
   12. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4619174)
Hitting: 245/322/375 and a roughly average defender, 1.5 WAR. I recall he projected better last year.
   13. Publius Publicola Posted: December 16, 2013 at 07:02 PM (#4619182)
I think Bradley's going to be a very good player. I expect a .260/.350/.430 with plus defense at a key defensive position.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 16, 2013 at 07:05 PM (#4619184)
ZiPS link

Cecchini and Vasquez as league average already, Bogaerts at 2.8 WAR with Tulo as top comp. Barnes looks to be a bit above league-average, Workman a bit below.

Ellsbury was at 4 so Bradley is a 2.5 WAR projected drop from 2014 Ellsbury and much more from 2013 Ellsbury. Overall vs. 2013 they look to be about 12 wins down on offense and another 3-4 on pitching (Peavy being a wild card). Not that there was much they could do to gain back that offense -- Ellsbury is the only one lost who projects better than his replacement -- and the losses on the pitching side are mainly Uehera and a half-win here or there from a solid rotation. If there's a small surprise it's that ZiPS projects no bounce back from Bailey or Hanrahan.

The good thing about the projections is the depth. There are a boatload of position and rotation guys (some of whom could go into the pen) projected in the 1-2 WAR range. They should be able to mix/match and cover for injury better than most of their competitors.
   15. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: December 16, 2013 at 11:09 PM (#4619313)
I dunno, is baseball ready for another Mookie? Gookie Dawkins didn't work out so well.
   16. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:41 AM (#4619358)
I project Workman as a reliever. He did well in that role, just needs to clean some stuff up, but I'm not sure how he's a starter
   17. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:53 AM (#4619370)
#16, actually, Workman surprisingly did much better as a starter in the majors in 2013. For what it's worth. (Not much - only 18 and 23 innings a piece.)
   18. Dan Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:00 AM (#4619411)
If there's a small surprise it's that ZiPS projects no bounce back from Bailey or Hanrahan.


They're both free agents anyway with Bailey being non-tendered, so they don't affect the Red Sox team projection.

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