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Thursday, March 04, 2010

Baseball America: Book Review: Evaluating Baseball’s Managers

And the review is in…for Chris Jaffe.

The categories tracked in the database are Individual Hitting, Individual Pitching, a modified Pythagorean formula, Team Offense, and Team Pitching. The first two categories rely on algorithms to measure a player’s stats in a particular year against the surrounding seasons. For hitters, Runs Created are calculated and for pitchers, Component ERA. Those stats also factor into the Team Offense and Team Pitching results, by comparing how many runs a team should have scored or allowed, compared to what they actually did.

Jaffe also factors in managerial tendencies, breaking down each man’s preferences for bunting, stealing, using his bullpen, etc. And for skippers who worked before 1965, he measures their affinity for “leveraging” starting pitchers by scheduling them to inordinately face top or bottom teams. This strategy disappeared more than 40 years ago when most teams adopted more rigid starting rotations.

The refreshing thing about Jaffe’s approach is he acknowledges the limitations of ranking managers based solely on statistics. Earlier, purely statistical, breakdowns of team leaders have come to the conclusion that managers don’t actually have much impact on a team’s record. Jaffe rejects that. “I believe managers matter,” he writes in the first chapter. “To convince me otherwise would take more than an equation, no matter how brilliant its math.”

Repoz Posted: March 04, 2010 at 09:36 PM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: books, site news, special topics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 04, 2010 at 10:18 PM (#3472802)
so, Jaffe, when you hit the big time (Oprah et al), you gonna remember your friends?
   2. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: March 04, 2010 at 10:35 PM (#3472822)
Much as I hate Chris's publisher (McFarland), since they seldom publish hardbacks and almost never remainder, I'm going to be tempted to buy his book, if only to compared it to Leonard Koppett's The Man in the Dugout. Koppett does little ranking per se, but he has chapters on "The Creators" (McGraw, Mack and Rickey), "The Developers" (Huggins, McCarthy, McKechnie and Stengel), "The Descendents" (Durocher, Lopez, Frisch, and Richards, and "The Moderns" (Alston, Houk, Dark, Martin, Williams, Weaver, Anderson and LaSorda.)** It's going to be interesting to see how Chris picks up where Koppett left off.

**In 1993 LaRussa's career wasn't long enough for inclusion.
   3. fra paolo Posted: March 04, 2010 at 10:57 PM (#3472844)
It's going to be interesting to see how Chris picks up where Koppett left off.

If you like sabermetric-based analysis of managerial strategy, Chris wins by about the length of the course. If you like journalistic anecdotage that capture the character of managers as people, Koppett is ahead by a few feet.
   4. Bernal Diaz has an angel on his shoulder Posted: March 04, 2010 at 11:11 PM (#3472859)
March 4, 2010, The legend of Chris Jaffe dies.
   5. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: March 04, 2010 at 11:49 PM (#3472885)
It's going to be interesting to see how Chris picks up where Koppett left off.

If you like sabermetric-based analysis of managerial strategy, Chris wins by about the length of the course. If you like journalistic anecdotage that capture the character of managers as people, Koppett is ahead by a few feet.


Then either you're on Chris's payroll, or that must be one hell of a book**, because by the time he'd died Koppett likely had forgotten more about baseball than all but maybe half a dozen people have ever known. Koppett's main problem was that he seldom got into lists or shouting matches in order to get attention. If only he'd had Gammons' modern media exposure and Mariotti's decibel level.

**and I'm sure it's the latter
   6. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: March 05, 2010 at 01:11 AM (#3472910)
Then either you're on Chris's payroll, or that must be one hell of a book

Why can't it be both?
   7. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: March 05, 2010 at 01:32 AM (#3472920)
Synergy!
   8. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: March 05, 2010 at 02:30 AM (#3472948)
Synergy!

Eh, fra paolo works cheap. That shouldn't be surprising given that his BTF-name comes from people who take a vow of poverty.
   9. vortex of dissipation Posted: March 05, 2010 at 02:50 AM (#3472968)
Wonderful, wonderful book. I stayed up until 3 AM last night finishing it. My favorite thing I didn't know? Danny Murtaugh's leveraging of Earl Francis, a pitcher I'd never heard of. From 1961-63, Francis made 51 starts - nine against the Dodgers, eight each against the Reds, Giants, and Braves, and exactly zero against last place teams. In other words, Murtaugh saved a young pitcher with a lifetime record of 16-23 to pitch mainly against the Pirates chief opposition. Why? Was he matching him against Drysdale and Spahn, essentially giving up one game a series, and then throwing Friend and another ace against the second and third pitchers of those teams?
   10. bjhanke Posted: March 05, 2010 at 03:07 AM (#3472979)
I've posted elsewhere about this, but I really liked the book. Compared to Koppett, I'd say that Chris does a book in the Koppett "style", meaning that he gives you a good verbal picture of the manager, and he also gives you this statistical stuff that Koppett didn't have the resources to do. So it's kind of like getting two books in one. As good a writer as Koppett is, and he is very very good, if you have to read only one of the two books, read Chris'. It's like two, Two, TWO books in ONE!

- Brock Hanke
   11. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: March 05, 2010 at 03:24 AM (#3472984)
Koppett's stories were old hat. Jaffe's work is far more interesting. Fine book chris
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: March 05, 2010 at 03:41 AM (#3473001)
I read this book in less than two days, its a large book and I wished it was larger. The number one complaint is no breakdown on Don Baylor, who by Chris's method is probably the worse manager in the past 50 years, beyond that, the book was a fantastic fun read. It reminds me of the short essays that the Prospectus books do. On a 5 point scale it's a 4.5.
   13. Harold Posted: March 05, 2010 at 04:48 AM (#3473027)
Why? Was he matching him against Drysdale and Spahn, essentially giving up one game a series, and then throwing Friend and another ace against the second and third pitchers of those teams?

Francis's opponents in 1961-63:
4 "Ray Sadecki"
4 "Jim O'Toole"
3 "Sandy Koufax"
2 "Stan Williams"
2 "Johnny Podres"
2 "Joey Jay"
2 "Jim Maloney"
2 "Curt Simmons"
2 "Carl Willey"
2 "Bob Hendley"
2 "Bob Bruce"
2 "Art Mahaffey"
1 "Willard Hunter"
1 "Vinegar Bend Mizell"
1 "Vern Law"
1 "Tony Cloninger"
1 "Ron Piche"
1 "Ron Perranoski"
1 "Robin Roberts"
1 "Ray Washburn"
1 "Lew Burdette"
1 "Juan Marichal"
1 "John Tsitouris"
1 "Jim Golden"
1 "Jim Duffalo"
1 "Jim Brewer"
1 "Glen Hobbie"
1 "Gaylord Perry"
1 "Don Drysdale"
1 "Dick Ellsworth"
1 "Dick Drott"
1 "Dallas Green"
1 "Chris Zachary"
1 "Cal McLish"
1 "Cal Koonce"
1 "Bob Sadowski"
1 "Bob Gibson"
1 "Billy O'Dell"
1 "Bill Smith"
   14. vortex of dissipation Posted: March 05, 2010 at 05:51 AM (#3473077)
Thanks, although some of that info doesn't fit. How could he pitch against Vern Law, when both only played for the Pirates in that stretch, or Vinegar Bend Mizell, when Mizell played only for the Pirates and Mets, and Francis never started a game against the Mets?
   15. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: March 05, 2010 at 02:36 PM (#3473173)
Thanks for all the kind words. I'm glad people like it.

Looking at Harold's list, I count 56 starts in all, but Francis started only 51 games in those years. Damned if I can explain that.
   16. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: March 05, 2010 at 03:28 PM (#3473197)
Koppett's stories were old hat. Jaffe's work is far more interesting. Fine book chris

Well, you might better say that Koppett's stories were old hat to a tiny handful of true aficionados who grew up on the old Sporting News. It's not as if the collective memory of the American public (or even the typical sports fan) encompasses all that much about Connie Mack or Bill McKechnie. I've probably read about as many baseball books as anyone here, and there was plenty of material in Koppett's book that was new to me in 1993. It was also the first book on managers (other than Honig's 1977 oral history book with the same name) since the 1950's, and AFAIK it was the first comparative study of managers ever written.

Obviously that's not to say that Chris's book doesn't go well beyond Koppett, but that's to be expected, given the respective target audiences (Crown Books vs McFarland), and given the exponentially expanded database that Chris had to draw upon. Nothing I say about Koppett is meant to be a knock on Chris, and in fact I just went and bought Chris's book on Amazon.
   17. Dag Nabbit has the talking pillow Posted: March 06, 2010 at 03:57 PM (#3473877)
Brock,

If you don't mind, I added your thoughts to my Reader Feedback page.

Thanks again. Glad you liked it.
   18. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: March 06, 2010 at 04:37 PM (#3473894)
What's wrong with paperbacks? This might make me a Birther, but I prefer them to hardcovers.
   19. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: March 06, 2010 at 04:56 PM (#3473901)
What's wrong with paperbacks? This might make me a Birther, but I prefer them to hardcovers.

Purely personal preference. Paperbacks are much easier to get mangled and far harder to protect under normal use. But with a 30 cent mylar protective cover for the dust jacket it's easy to keep a hardback in new condition forever, even if you put a coffee cup on top of it.

Oh, and when most hardbacks go into paperback editions, the hardbacks are often much cheaper on Amazon, even for very clean copies. One more reason that I avoid paperbacks unless, like Chris's book, it's the only edition available.

A former customer of mine agrees with you, though. He's got over 8,000 sports books and will buy an underlined x-library paperback for $9.99 over a new hardcover for $10.00. It's the fault line between pure "information gatherers" and those who use that as a starting point, but who also want the information in the best format available. Obviously there's no right or wrong here, only aesthetic preferences.

But there is one big quasi-practical advantage for the latter group: When you croak, if your wife and / or kids don't share your baseball passion, they'll be able to get a lot more money for your collection.
   20. Justin T is expanding the aperture of awareness Posted: March 06, 2010 at 05:17 PM (#3473916)
I'm a paperback guy too. I just find them a lot more comfortable to read. So when some book comes out that I know I want to read, I just wish list it so I won't forget about it and read it once the paperback comes out.

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