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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Baseball Crank: The Hall Feels The Need For Speed

His goals beyond…McLaughlin checks out the HOF ballot.

I’m disappointed in Blyleven’s and Raines’ showings, and alarmed by Dawson’s rise. All the new candidates but Raines dropped off the ballot, but all the returning ones remained, although Harold Baines at 5.2% is dropping close to the line, and Dave Concepcion now goes to the Veterans Commitee. Rice and Tommy John will be on the ballot one last time next year, and Rice probably goes in then.

On further reflection, Blyleven’s jump to over 60% probably does mean he’s finally on track to make it.

Let me also point out something that should be screamingly obvious: Tim Raines was born in 1959 and played in the majors from 1979 to 2002. Lee Smith was born in 1957 and played in the majors from 1980-97. With the possible exception of the 1991-92 offseason, at no point during those years would anyone in their right minds have considered trading Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.

Repoz Posted: January 08, 2008 at 09:24 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, history

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   1. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: January 08, 2008 at 10:30 PM (#2663764)
With the possible exception of the 1991-92 offseason, at no point during those years would anyone in their right minds have considered trading Tim Raines to get Lee Smith.


That's a good point, but arguably if you're going to make this point (i.e., that for relievers to get inducted in the HoF, they have to have been as good as the least worthwhile regular player playing in his prime who is/should be in the HoF), there'll be few relievers enshrined in Cooperstown.
   2. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 08, 2008 at 10:51 PM (#2663812)
but arguably if you're going to make this point ... there'll be few relievers enshrined in Cooperstown.
Yes ... and?
   3. Willie Mayspedes Posted: January 08, 2008 at 11:20 PM (#2663866)
Baseball Crank: The Hall Feels The Need For Speed


Did they run out of crack or something?
   4. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: January 08, 2008 at 11:43 PM (#2663889)
... and I'm not necessarily against relievers going into Cooperstown.

Right now, Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are the two full-time relievers who look like locks for Cooperstown (Smoltz is more of an Eckersley hybrid, a little bit stronger on the starting front).

Mariano, at his inner HoF peak, would have probably been traded straight-up for the worst position player HoFer of his generation (I haven't thought this through, so I'm not sure who is the worst position player HoF player of Mariano's generation).

I don't see Hoffman traded for the worst position player HoFer of his generation.

And to me, Hoffman has had a HoF career.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2008 at 01:20 AM (#2663946)
After 1990, Raines was traded for Ivan Calderon, an average corner OF. Smith was still a top closer coming off an 83 IP, ERA+ 187 season (though 1989 had not been good). You make the call. In 1995, Raines was traded for a PTBNL and, although also near the end of his career, Smith would have been better return.

Smith was traded for Tom Brunansky once, who was at least a little worse than Calderon but kinda close.

Why the Cubs wanted Al Nipper or thought Calvin Schiraldi would make a good starter remain mysteries to this day.

Although there's a logic behind it, it's a silly standard to apply. Mark McGwire was traded for crap. Who would trade Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy? Who would trade Pedro for Carl Pavano? Who would trade Lee Smith for Nipper and Schiraldi? Who would trade Ryne Sandberg (and Larry Bowa) for Ivan DeJesus or Gary Matthews and Bob Dernier for Bill Campbell?

Teams make dumbass trades all the time. Given all the talent they produced in their heyday, I shudder to think how many crappy trades the Expos made.
   6. OCF Posted: January 09, 2008 at 03:15 AM (#2664016)
Given all the talent they produced in their heyday, I shudder to think how many crappy trades the Expos made.

Back in the time when they had Carter, Dawson, and Raines, they also seemed to have persistent ghastly holes in their lineup. How much retroactive fantasy-GM-ing does it take for them to never use Doug Flynn as a regular?
   7. Bhaakon Posted: January 09, 2008 at 03:50 AM (#2664041)
I don't see Hoffman traded for the worst position player HoFer of his generation.


I don't know, do you think Vizquel will get in?
   8. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 09, 2008 at 04:06 AM (#2664048)
Mariano, at his inner HoF peak, would have probably been traded straight-up for the worst position player HoFer of his generation (I haven't thought this through, so I'm not sure who is the worst position player HoF player of Mariano's generation).

I don't see Hoffman traded for the worst position player HoFer of his generation.

And to me, Hoffman has had a HoF career


Correct me if I'm wrong, but are you seriously trying to say that Hoffman has been better than Rivera? But maybe it's just my glaucoma and I'm reading it wrong.
   9. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 09, 2008 at 04:10 AM (#2664049)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but are you seriously trying to say that Hoffman has been better than Rivera? But maybe it's just my glaucoma and I'm reading it wrong.
You are, because he wrote it confusedly. He was writing from the point of view of the team <u>acquiring</u> the closer, not the team trading the closer away. (That is, if you have WorstHOFerX, you'd be willing to give him up to get Rivera, but not to get Hoffman.)

But I would probably attribute your mistakes generally to senility rather than glaucoma.
   10. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: January 09, 2008 at 04:50 AM (#2664080)
But I would probably attribute your mistakes generally to senility rather than glaucoma.

Yeah, and when I can remember where I am, I can't see where it is. It ain't pretty.
   11. Misirlou's got a busy day, he's wearing a vest Posted: January 09, 2008 at 04:58 AM (#2664083)
I don't see Hoffman traded for the worst position player HoFer of his generation.


Hoffman was traded for Sheffield.
   12. Boots Day Posted: January 09, 2008 at 06:16 AM (#2664111)
After 1990, Raines was traded for Ivan Calderon, an average corner OF.

This isn't quite complete. Raines and two minor leaguers were traded to the White Sox for Ivan Calderon and Barry Jones. Jones is forgotten today, not least because of his utterly forgettable name, but he was coming off a stellar year as Bobby Thigpen's setup man - ERA+ of 161 - and the Expos got him to be their closer. A year later, the Expos turned around and traded Jones to the Phillies for Darrin Fletcher, who then gave them six years' worth of B-minus catching.

I don't want to make him out to be Mariano Rivera or anything, but Barry Jones was an important part of that deal, and a valuable property in his own right.
   13. bookbook Posted: January 09, 2008 at 06:48 AM (#2664122)
Does this mean Bagwell won't go into the hall?
   14. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: January 09, 2008 at 06:53 AM (#2664125)
Or Babe Ruth?
   15. Suff Posted: January 09, 2008 at 06:57 AM (#2664126)
I have been out of the discussion lately, so I'm sure someone has already made this point, but I don't see what I see as the probable main reason people don't vote for Raines being discussed much of anywhere. (And I know this is a little off-discussion here, so my apologies):

His last great season was 1987. After that, he wasn't elected to an All-Star team or receive any MVP support outside of a few stray votes in the 1989 election. So he was through as a "star" in 1987, and he's just now coming up for vote. That hurts him immensely. He was underrated as a star, and extremely underrated after his peak, but his best years more or less corresponded with Dale Murphy or Don Mattingly, who have been on the ballot for years. He and Jim Rice had their last serious MVP considerations one year apart (Rice '86, Raines '87), and Rice will be in his final year on the ballot next year. Kirby Puckett has been in for years now, and he was barely getting his career started at this time. And think about the 1999 class: George Brett won a batting title in 1990 (3 years after Raines' last All-Star season), Nolan Ryan struck out 300 guys in 1989 (2 years after), and Robin Yount won an MVP in 1989 (2 years after). Raines hung around forever as a good player, then a useful player, then an old player, and people had all the time in the world to forget how great he was--and in all that, he never reached a benchmark milestone that would remind people of his greatness.

He's an '80s star, and all of the players you would call that have been considered and are in or out (with the exception of Rickey Henderson). I think writers are finished with "stars of the 80s" and and have moved on to "stars of the "'90s" and unless you're someone who was a star of both, like Rickey Henderson (or Roger Clemens), your time has passed.

If it weren't for stathead types who have been pushing him for the HOF since his career was essentially over 10-12 years ago, he wouldn' have gotten half the votes he got. I'm convinced he's pretty obviously worthy, but what I've mentioned along with being from Montreal, having underrated-type skills, and no milestones, he's kind of a perfect storm for someone to be grossly overlooked.
   16. Jeff K. Posted: January 09, 2008 at 07:13 AM (#2664134)
But I would probably attribute your mistakes generally to senility rather than glaucoma.

Yeah, and when I can remember where I am, I can't see where it is. It ain't pretty.


You're not senile, you're just drunk!
   17. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: January 09, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#2664195)
Andy,

I'm sorry, that certainly doesn't read right (that's part of the problem of writing in your second language, but I digress).

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