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Monday, July 28, 2008

Baseball Evolution: Chancey: Fred Lewis and the New Giants

I know Fred Frith is recording with Barry Guy…so there must be some sort of Zelaznyian alternate shadow universe high jinx at play here.

“The thing about Bonds,” offered an older member of the Giants’ coaching staff, “is that he didn’t actually hit the ball very much. This is supposed to be one of the game’s great hitters, but don’t you have to actually hit to be considered as such? Growing up, the great players of our generation didn’t take tons of walks. They actually focused on hitting the ball.” Perhaps the most startling difference between Lewis and Bonds is their ability to hit the ball. Bonds only hit .276 last year, and with two full months left in this season, Lewis has 92 hits, on pace for well over 150. But Bonds failed to get more than 150 hits in any of his last six seasons, and failed to even get over 100 in the last two.

As a member of the Giants’ front office recently said, “Guys like Peter Gammons say, ‘the purpose of any baseball player is to score runs, because at the end of the game, the team with the most runs wins.’” And there can be no doubt that Lewis is a better run scorer than Bonds had been in recent years. Lewis’ 63 runs scored in 2008 have him on pace to eclipse Bonds’ totals from each of the last three years – 75, 74, and 8. But it gets better. When you subtract the number of times Bonds scored via homerun – the number of times he drove himself in – the numbers are even worse. Bonds scored only 47 runs other than homeruns in 2007, only 48 in 2006, and only three in 2005. Incredibly, when you look at runs scored without homeruns, Lewis is currently on pace to score more times in 2008 than Bonds ever did in his entire career!

Repoz Posted: July 28, 2008 at 10:42 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giants, projections

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   1. Fridas Boss Posted: July 28, 2008 at 11:40 AM (#2877551)
Is this article for real? Repoz, we're all collectively dumber for it even appearing on the newsblog.
   2. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 28, 2008 at 11:43 AM (#2877552)
This is a good pick-me-up for a Monday morning.
   3. Blackadder Posted: July 28, 2008 at 11:45 AM (#2877554)
Yeah, those old guys like Ted Williams and Babe Ruth would never take a walk.
   4. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 28, 2008 at 11:51 AM (#2877555)
Yeah, those old guys like Ted Williams and Babe Ruth would never take a walk.

When I was a Little Leaguer, the one player the coaches always talked about as the greatest hitter alive was Rod Carew and this is when George Brett and Mike Schmidt were in their prime. I think for a lot of people, high average, high contact guys like Carew are the definition of a great hitter. If they want to think that on aesthetic grounds, I have no problem with it. However, anybody who has the slightest bit of influence on the contruction or development of an MLB team should know better.
   5. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 28, 2008 at 12:14 PM (#2877561)
If you read the whole thing, it's pretty clearly a joke. :-)
   6. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader Posted: July 28, 2008 at 12:23 PM (#2877563)
If you read the whole thing, it's pretty clearly a joke. :-)

That's actually a relief. Whew!
   7. T.J. Posted: July 28, 2008 at 12:45 PM (#2877572)
Yeah, I think it is a joke:

But this season, things have totally turned around. Consider the team's record through 101 games. At the 101-game point last season, the Giants were a pitiful 44-57 and 12.0 games back in the NL West. But this year, the Giants, no longer plagued by enormous, distracting crowds, are currently only 7.0 games behind the faltering Arizona Diamondbacks, a remarkable turnaround. It is almost as if the Giants were transformed overnight from losers into winners simply by replacing Bonds with Lewis.


This year at the 101-game mark, they were 43-58. But only 7.0 back, thanks to the influence of Fred Lewis (who to his credit has been surprisingly good this year, but he's no Bonds)!

But now they're 43-61, 10.0 back. Did Lewis take some leave or something?
   8. Hack Wilson Posted: July 28, 2008 at 12:49 PM (#2877573)
Actually one line in the article is insightful,

But this year, the Giants, no longer plagued by enormous, distracting crowds, are currently only 7.0 games behind the faltering Arizona Diamondbacks, a remarkable turnaround.
   9. salfino Posted: July 28, 2008 at 01:41 PM (#2877608)
Didn't Buck Martinez once say he'd rather have a guy hit a double than a homer?
   10. Social media assassin (Templeusox) Posted: July 28, 2008 at 01:45 PM (#2877611)
Fred Lewis is a damn good player.
   11. RJ in TO Posted: July 28, 2008 at 01:57 PM (#2877631)
Didn't Buck Martinez once say he'd rather have a guy hit a double than a homer?


Haven't multiple guys said that homers are rally killers? In fact, didn't the Houston coach say that this year?

I'd be more concerned about a manager saying something like that than an announcer, especially since an announcer often has to fill three hours of time - I'm sure that most of us say at least one dumb thing for every three hours of uninterrupted speech (I typically don't need the full three hours).

Unless, of course, Martinez said that while he was a manager, in which case I can't excuse it.
   12. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L) Posted: July 28, 2008 at 02:00 PM (#2877634)
Fred Lewis is a damn good player.
x2

Yesterday, Fred Lewis became the first left handed batter to EVER get 4 hits in a game off Randy Johnson. Now, I know Randy Johnson isn't the same dominant hardass he was before his last two back surgeries, but that was a pretty impressive game by Lewis. In fact, RJ had to resort to a brand new pitch against Lewis to try to get him out... ;)
   13. JPWF13 Posted: July 28, 2008 at 02:08 PM (#2877641)
Haven't multiple guys said that homers are rally killers? In fact, didn't the Houston coach say that this year?


McCarver's been saying it for decades... In fact when someone showed him numbers establishing that leadoff homers are more likely to lead to multi-run innings than lead-off walks, he was flabbergasted and kept insisting that such a finding was "contrary to conventional wisdom".

I remember watching games in the 1970s and invariably late in a wide margin game (3+ run lead) some announcer would get all upset if a pitcher threw a first pitch ball and would say,
that's worse than grooving a BP fastball- if the guy hits a HR, so what? you've got a run lead, there's no one on base, they still have nothing going". Then he'd reminisce about some old time start pitcher who'd groove BP fastballs to power hitters in the 8th innings of blowout games, just to get past that lineup slot quickly and efficiently...
   14. Walt Davis Posted: July 28, 2008 at 08:15 PM (#2878269)
threw a first pitch ball and would say,
that's worse than grooving a BP fastball- if the guy hits a HR, so what? you've got a run lead, there's no one on base, they still have nothing going"


And that's basically right. With a 3+ run lead, throw strikes, don't give them free runners. Sure, your HR risk increases but mostly you'll get BIP and Ks which are both really good outcomes.

So yes, I still get incredibly annoyed when a pitcher walks a batter late in the game with a big lead.

Of course I grew up on Fergie Jenkins then Rick Reuschel then Greg Maddux (well, I was old by then) so I just get annoyed anytime a pitcher issues a walk.
   15. dregarx Posted: July 29, 2008 at 12:36 AM (#2878704)
on a side note, Lewis has a very similar batting approach to Bonds'
I believe he is somewhere in the top 10 on pitches per at bat
and perfectly willing to take a walk

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