Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, October 08, 2017

Baseball Joe Girardi, Upon Review, Offers a Rare Mea Culpa: ‘I Screwed Up’

Given a night of restless sleep — and after perhaps letting an excoriation from the news media (including from commentators on the YES Network, which is partly owned by the Yankees) sink in — Girardi ventured to the Bronx on Saturday, disassembled his standard defensive armor and offered up something unusual: a mea culpa.

“I screwed up,” he said.

“In hindsight, yeah,” he added. “I wish I would have challenged it.”

“Again, I screwed up,” he went on. “And it’s hard. It’s a hard day for me.”

ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:36 AM | 52 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: alds, managers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 08, 2017 at 07:13 PM (#5547302)
Interesting that Girardi is being made out to take the fall for someone else's error.

The primary blame for this falls on the umpires for screwing up the call.

The secondary blame goes to MLB, for a lousy replay system.

Then we can get to Girardi.

You can flip the first two if you like.

There's simply no reason to give the manager essentially only 30 seconds to make a decision here. He has to rely on a staffer to relay a message to him after seeing the video, and then take into account game state to decide whether to challenge the call. To only give him two challenges shifts the burden to him to do the umpires' job and officiate the game correctly. At that, this was a playoff game. Get The Call Right should have been the priority produced by the system. The system failed.

As to the size horns to fit Girardi with, it's true that 3rd strike vs HBP is significant there, but it's actually not as significant as one might think based on game probability: Even the HBP had a >90% win probability already. It's hard to get much higher than that on a single play in the 6th inning.

Girardi did make an error but it's being far overblown and the main problem was MLB and the umpires. He's the third goat out of three. And let's not forget: his pitcher struck the hitter out to end the inning. The rest is a system fail. Middle managers decided that they would decide the outcome of that PA, rather than the players on the field.

It's a screwed up system where everyone watching at home knows that it was a HBP, and yet the manager never sees the video before making the decision.
   2. Cblau Posted: October 08, 2017 at 08:50 PM (#5547331)
This is what he's apologizing for, not screwing up the pitching rotation?
   3. RobDeer Posted: October 08, 2017 at 08:55 PM (#5547332)
Bottom of the 6th inning, 2 strikes, 2 outs, Girardi has 2 challenges left to use prior to the 8th inning, and his catcher is insistent the called-on-the-field-HBP-to-load-the-bases was a foul tip strike three. That is a terrible mistake by Girardi. "No reason to give the manager essentially only 30 seconds" oh, you've not heard that pace of play is an issue in MLB?
   4. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:00 PM (#5547335)
It's a screwed up system where everyone watching at home knows that it was a HBP, and yet the manager never sees the video before making the decision.


It's a screwed up system to be sure, but lay no blam on the umpire. It's an impossible ask to demand that if he doesn't get this call correct it's screwed up call. The umpire HAS to make a call. He cannot say "Well, I have no idea." Now, you can blame the system that puts him in a position to make a coin flip call, but don't balme the human that was required to make a guess on something that no human could ever know with certainty.
   5. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:03 PM (#5547336)
Bottom of the 6th inning, 2 strikes, 2 outs, Girardi has 2 challenges left to use prior to the 8th inning, and his catcher is insistent the called-on-the-field-HBP-to-load-the-bases was a foul tip strike three. That is a terrible mistake by Girardi. "No reason to give the manager essentially only 30 seconds" oh, you've not heard that pace of play is an issue in MLB?


I agree with all this. It's like football coaches letting the clock run down and spiking the ball with 22 seconds and 2 time outs left. WTF are you saving them for?
   6. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:11 PM (#5547341)
Third base coaches understand that there are situations where you should send the runner home even if you think he’ll probably be out. Say, 2 outs with a really bad hitter up next. Even if you think he’ll only beat the throw one time out of three, you know it makes sense to risk it.

...I don’t get the sense that managers/organizations properly understand that this rationale applies in an even more significant way on instant replay. The penalty for a wrong challenge is almost non-existent: in a spot that big (where a reversal is the difference between inning over & bases loaded for Lindor), Girardi should challenge even if he’s 99% sure the ump made the RIGHT call. But I suspect he’s still using a “We should only challenge if we believe the umpire likely blew the call.” And that’s the wrong standard in that spot, clearly.
   7. No longer interested in this website Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:13 PM (#5547342)
In order of blame:

1. Girardi
2. His replay guy
3. The 30-second to decide rule
4. Sanchez (for not being even more adamant about challenging it)

There's a HUGE gap between 1 and 2. Girardi had external information (Sanchez imploring him to challenge, Chisenhall not shaking his hand), and he ignored it. He's to blame. To drag in the rules is to muddy the issue. Girardi blew it.
   8. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:19 PM (#5547345)
Players constantly jump up and gesture to their dugout for a challenge on every close play that goes against them, including the majority of the time when they know perfectly damn well that the call that went against them was correct, to the point that it's annoying and I wish MLB would penalize them for it.

If they get smacked upside the head with boy-who-cried-wolf syndrome the one time they know for certain that the call against them really was blown, in a critical situation, I for one have no sympathy for them.
   9. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2017 at 09:56 PM (#5547369)
There's simply no reason to give the manager essentially only 30 seconds to make a decision here.
Uh, yeah, there is. First, nobody wants to sit around watching a game of will-the-manager-challenge-or-won't-he-Ball. Second, if you can't tell quickly, then it's probably not worth challenging.
He has to rely on a staffer to relay a message to him after seeing the video, and then take into account game state to decide whether to challenge the call.
I understand how the first part of that argument is a defense of Girardi -- the staffer supposedly didn't tell him -- but I don't understand how the second part is. It's not Girardi's fault that he made a bad decision because he had to make a decision?

It was a big mistake by Girardi; he had no reason not to challenge, once Sanchez told him to challenge. But at the same time, the notion that it cost the Yankees the game is silly. If the players had executed at all competently after that point, Girardi's mistake wouldn't have mattered.
   10. PreservedFish Posted: October 08, 2017 at 10:01 PM (#5547373)
But RDP is correct that the replay system sucks butts.
   11. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 08, 2017 at 10:07 PM (#5547378)
...I don’t get the sense that managers/organizations properly understand that this rationale applies in an even more significant way on instant replay.
We had this discussion here a few years ago when there were stats posted about how often managers challenged. From a fan perspective, replay sucks and I'd like to see less of it. But from a strategy perspective, all managers failed to challenge frequently enough.
   12. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 08, 2017 at 10:55 PM (#5547401)
#2, yes, Girardi has made a number of mistakes, including holding Tanaka -- a high upside starter -- up for game 3.

Bottom of the 6th inning, 2 strikes, 2 outs, Girardi has 2 challenges left to use prior to the 8th inning, and his catcher is insistent the called-on-the-field-HBP-to-load-the-bases was a foul tip strike three. That is a terrible mistake by Girardi. "No reason to give the manager essentially only 30 seconds" oh, you've not heard that pace of play is an issue in MLB?


Pace of play is mostly an issue for non-baseball fans. But not taking some extra time to ensure that a critical call was correct is not worth the tradeoff, if this is what it's come to.

Regardless, his assistant manager advised him he couldn't win the challenge. Most of these challenges aren't won. And he didn't want his pitcher to have to wait to face the Lindor with the bases loaded. I do agree it's more than reasonable to criticize him given that if the challenge is upheld you're out of the inning, but I think people are piling on too much.
   13. PreservedFish Posted: October 08, 2017 at 11:04 PM (#5547410)
But not taking some extra time to ensure that a critical call was correct is not worth the tradeoff, if this is what it's come to.


But this is a real live slippery slope. Soon you'll have 5 minute delays "just to make sure" for all sorts of ridiculous minor events. There's gotta be a limit.

I wish there were no challenge system, that a 5th umpire watching on tv managed all errors by himself, or similar. The challenge system is just a stupid gimmick. But even in that case, there needs to be a time limit.

Pace of play is mostly an issue for non-baseball fans.


Non-baseball fans are important too. Sometimes they even become baseball fans. Less of them do if they frequently have to watch a fat umpire wearing headphones and doing nothing else for minutes at a time.
   14. The Ghost of Sox Fans Past Posted: October 08, 2017 at 11:08 PM (#5547413)
Bottom of the 6th inning, 2 strikes, 2 outs, Girardi has 2 challenges left to use prior to the 8th inning, and his catcher is insistent the called-on-the-field-HBP-to-load-the-bases was a foul tip strike three. That is a terrible mistake by Girardi.


I think managers will be on top of this in the future. Challenges are relatively new, and two challenges in the playoffs is a freakin' rule change; it's like playing with 4 outs per inning. OK, not quite, but my point stands. Strategic changes take time, but Joe just speeded it up
   15. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 08, 2017 at 11:10 PM (#5547415)
Girardi has made a number of mistakes, including holding Tanaka -- a high upside starter -- up for game 2.

Tanaka has pitched much better at Yankee Stadium this season. Holding him for Game 3 was the correct call.
   16. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 08, 2017 at 11:30 PM (#5547420)
Tanaka has pitched much better at Yankee Stadium this season.


Is that actually a thing? That has meaning?

A pitcher is actually better on the road than at hone when adjusted for park?

It doesn't seem to be the case with Tanaka, if you avoid looking just at one-year samples. Any difference in his home and road performance after adjusting for park -- if there is much of one -- is probably mostly as a result of this year.
   17. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 08, 2017 at 11:34 PM (#5547422)
2017 Tanaka: 6.48 ERA on the road, 3.22 at home.
   18. PreservedFish Posted: October 08, 2017 at 11:38 PM (#5547423)
What is a "high upside" starter? Strange term. If a high upside starter had a 4.74 ERA, wouldn't we also need to call him a high downside starter?

Gray looks slated to start games 1 and 5. So whether you take Sabathia or Tanaka first doesn't seem to matter. They both pitch once.
   19. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:01 AM (#5547426)
2017 Tanaka: 6.48 ERA on the road, 3.22 at home.


What were his splits on nights that Game of Thrones was on?

I asked if this was a special skill or just a dumb fluke.
   20. DaVoice of DaPeople Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:02 AM (#5547427)
17. Tanaka has pitched much better at Yankee Stadium this season.

2017 Tanaka: 6.48 ERA on the road, 3.22 at home

2016 Tanaka: 2.34 ERA on the road, 3.86 at home.
2015 Tanaka: 3.24 ERA on the road, 3.71 at home.

C’mon man, that split is pure noise!
   21. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:06 AM (#5547428)
What is a "high upside" starter? Strange term. If a high upside starter had a 4.74 ERA, wouldn't we also need to call him a high downside starter?


It's basically a good starter who has high strikeout numbers and a good K/BB ratio. That's Tanaka, and the only difference this year was a HR rate that was out of control, but it's possible that was just a fluke.

Tanaka had the Yankees four best starts by game score this year.
   22. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:07 AM (#5547429)
2017 Tanaka: 6.48 ERA on the road, 3.22 at home.


What were his splits on nights that Game of Thrones was on?

2017 Tanaka: 2.45 ERA on nights when Game of Thrones was on, 4.95 ERA on nights with no Game of Thrones.

So they were taking a big chance letting him pitch tonight.
   23. SoSH U at work Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:08 AM (#5547430)
C’mon man, that split is pure noise!


Agreed. But as PF notes, how he ordered Tanaka and CC is of little* significance, given each was going to start once in the series.

* Little, but not "no significance," since the Yankees presumably would like to be playing in the next round as well.
   24. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:15 AM (#5547432)
Agreed. But as PF notes, how he ordered Tanaka and CC is of little* significance, given each was going to start once in the series.


Huh? It was not a "given" that Tanaka was going to start just once in the series. It was a manager decision by Girardi. It's exactly what I'm complaining about.

The Indians are the better team, and so the Yankees needed to get their highest-upside pitcher two starts to try to offset that.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:22 AM (#5547434)
highest-upside pitcher


You didn't really respond to my criticism of this term, which is still weird. Is Tanaka their best starter? Is he better than Gray?
   26. Walt Davis Posted: October 09, 2017 at 01:55 AM (#5547444)
Tanaka had the Yankees four best starts by game score this year.

This appears to be true (seems no easy way to sort this at b-r) but it seems trivial. Tanaka has 4 starts from 83-88 and 3 more in the 70s. The others:

Severino: high of 80, 10 more in the 70s
Gray: 5 in the 70s, 2 with NYY

If a high upside starter had a 4.74 ERA, wouldn't we also need to call him a high downside starter?

Gray's 4 worst game scores range from 19 to 34
Severino has a 13 and 5 in the 30s
Tanaka has an 11, 15, 18; 2 more in the 20s; 4 in the 30s.

I understand it's partly moot since Severino was not available for G1. Tanaka was both better and worse than Gray. I have no idea if you're better pitching your guy with the best shot at an outstanding game or avoiding the guy with the best shot at a #### game.

But if we (wisely) aren't trusting single-season H/R splits, why are we citing single-season rankings of game scores?
   27. Heart of Matt Harvey Posted: October 09, 2017 at 07:04 AM (#5547449)
It was a big mistake by Girardi; he had no reason not to challenge, once Sanchez told him to challenge. But at the same time, the notion that it cost the Yankees the game is silly. If the players had executed at all competently after that point, Girardi's mistake wouldn't have mattered.


If the call is overturned, which replay shows decisively it would be, the inning is over and the Yankees lead by five runs with nine outs to go (97.3% chance of winning). Instead, the bases are loaded for a guy with 33 HR on the season.

That one poor decision was bad enough, but Girardi botched the job lifting a cruising Sabathia for an tired reliever he had warmed up several times, solely because he made that decision before the game started.

Girardi lost that game, plain and simple. And he and everybody in that clubhouse knows it.
   28. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 07:54 AM (#5547456)
Well at least Tanaka was pitching last night. Thank goodness for that.
   29. Lassus Posted: October 09, 2017 at 08:11 AM (#5547462)
A few things had to happen after that grand slam for the Yankees to actually lose.
   30. Howie Menckel Posted: October 09, 2017 at 09:34 AM (#5547493)
yes, but Girardi made some epic, before-things-happened blunders in that game.

pretending otherwise is just being contrarian for the heck of it.

   31. Lassus Posted: October 09, 2017 at 09:47 AM (#5547509)
pretending otherwise is just being contrarian for the heck of it.

I don't think the preponderance of "GIRARDI LOST THE GAME. PERIOD. FULL STOP." is accurate. He certainly made it easier for them to lose the game, which is not the same thing. I don't think that's being contrarian for the heck of it. YMMV.
   32. PreservedFish Posted: October 09, 2017 at 09:57 AM (#5547516)
Agreed with Lassus.

And it's ALWAYS a sketchy argument. Everything Girardi did yesterday worked well, where are the hosannas today? And how about the play-in game, where his bullpen usage was extremely creative and aggressive and remarkably effective?
   33. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 11:22 AM (#5547590)
Pace of play is mostly an issue for non-baseball fans.
False.
But not taking some extra time to ensure that a critical call was correct is not worth the tradeoff, if this is what it's come to.
Well, it wasn't a critical call at the time; only in hindsight. The Yankees were up 8-3 in the sixth inning.

Regardless, his assistant manager advised him he couldn't win the challenge. Most of these challenges aren't won. And he didn't want his pitcher to have to wait to face the Lindor with the bases loaded.
No; that was just his dumb CYA argument. He didn't want his pitcher to have to wait? Pace of play is too slow for that to be even the least bit credible as an argument.
   34. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5547600)
If the call is overturned, which replay shows decisively it would be, the inning is over and the Yankees lead by five runs with nine outs to go (97.3% chance of winning). Instead, the bases are loaded for a guy with 33 HR on the season.
If the call isn't overturned (either because replay didn't help or because Girardi didn't challenge), the Yankees lead by five runs with ten outs to go. Yes, Lindor hit a bunch of HRs in 2017 -- in 5% of his ABs. Even in the unlikely event he hit one -- which we only know he did in hindsight -- the Yankees would still be leading.

That one poor decision was bad enough, but Girardi botched the job lifting a cruising Sabathia for an tired reliever he had warmed up several times, solely because he made that decision before the game started.
That's an entirely separate issue I'm not addressing.
   35. Heart of Matt Harvey Posted: October 09, 2017 at 11:54 AM (#5547621)
If the call isn't overturned (either because replay didn't help or because Girardi didn't challenge), the Yankees lead by five runs with ten outs to go.


With the bases loaded.

Yes, Lindor hit a bunch of HRs in 2017 -- in 5% of his ABs. Even in the unlikely event he hit one -- which we only know he did in hindsight -- the Yankees would still be leading.

By one run as opposed to five.

I'm sure there's a game flow cart that shows how dramatically that one decision changed the odds.

A manager needs to play the game more like a gambler and less like a banker.

(Nod to DaVo).
   36. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5547632)
By one run as opposed to five.
Right. That's the worst case scenario.
I'm sure there's a game flow cart that shows how dramatically that one decision changed the odds.
Very very little, I'm sure.
A manager needs to play the game more like a gambler and less like a banker.
I literally have no idea what that means.
   37. PeteF3 Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:35 PM (#5547644)
delete
   38. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 09, 2017 at 12:49 PM (#5547652)
Tanaka had the Yankees four best starts by game score this year.

One of those games was in Fenway, when he was matched up against Chris Sale and pitched a complete game shutout.

Another was against the Rangers, when he allowed 3 hits and no runs in 8 innings, matching Yu Darvish pitch for pitch.

Another was his final start against Toronto, in a must-win game if ever there was one.

Overall Tanaka's had a terrible year, but he's still shown that he can rise to the occasion, as he did last night with a game score of 77. If he hadn't pitched as he did, we'd be bringing flowers to the Yankees' cemetery instead of hoping that Severino can keep it alive for one more shot at Kluber.
   39. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 09, 2017 at 01:04 PM (#5547662)
I'm sure there's a game flow cart that shows how dramatically that one decision changed the odds.

Very very little, I'm sure.
I was bopping around the interweb over the weekend and came across this cool website that has info like this.

The walk moved Cleveland's chances of winning from 7% to 9%, but that doesn't include what the change would've been if the correct call (3rd out) would've been made.

Playing with this site, it looks like the difference between Yankees up 8-3, bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of 6 and no one on, no outs, top of 7 is about 4.25%.
   40. Heart of Matt Harvey Posted: October 09, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5547683)
Very very little, I'm sure.


Scroll down to flow chart

The walk moved Cleveland's chances of winning from 7% to 9%, but that doesn't include what the change would've been if the correct call (3rd out) would've been made.


Girardi calls for replay, Lindor never comes to the plate, and Yankees odds of winning don't plunge from 97% to (~66)%.

Girardi the banker charted out his forecast before the game and stuck to it without considering any variables developing in play, like a gambler would. He removed a cruising Sabathia, he ignored the reactions of Sanchez and Chisenhall, and after it all went to hell, he avoided responsibility post-game. He may as well have not been in the dugout.

Let's hope Joe's contract is not renewed after the season. He's a complete imbecile.
   41. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 01:39 PM (#5547689)
If a high upside starter had a 4.74 ERA, wouldn't we also need to call him a high downside starter?


Sure. But this is the playoffs, which means that the manager isn't going to leave him in to give up 8 runs. So the effect of him being a "high downside starter" is mitigated considerably.

You didn't really respond to my criticism of this term, which is still weird. Is Tanaka their best starter? Is he better than Gray?


The question is more complicated than "best." Which pitcher you'd rather have for a career, or a 5-year stretch, or a single season, or a single game are all different questions. In this case Tanaka is the better bet for a single game against an opponent you are an underdog to, because of his big game potential. *Good* pitchers with high K rates are much better bets for a single game, I think.

Which is not to say that Gray is much worse in this regard, just that I'd have started Tanaka twice.
   42. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 01:52 PM (#5547701)
I understand it's partly moot since Severino was not available for G1. Tanaka was both better and worse than Gray. I have no idea if you're better pitching your guy with the best shot at an outstanding game or avoiding the guy with the best shot at a #### game.

But if we (wisely) aren't trusting single-season H/R splits, why are we citing single-season rankings of game scores?


Because the H/R splits don't bear out over time as significant but he has high game scores in each season.
   43. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 02:01 PM (#5547713)
That one poor decision was bad enough, but Girardi botched the job lifting a cruising Sabathia for an tired reliever he had warmed up several times, solely because he made that decision before the game started.


No, pulling Sabathia was the correct move. Sabathia isn't the pitcher he was. And he wasn't having a good game. He gave up only 2 ER but 4 runs and the two hitters before went walk - line out. And four RHBs were slated to come up.

And these pens are so good now that you have to go to them earlier in the playoffs.
   44. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 02:03 PM (#5547714)
Regardless, his assistant manager advised him he couldn't win the challenge. Most of these challenges aren't won. And he didn't want his pitcher to have to wait to face the Lindor with the bases loaded.

No; that was just his dumb CYA argument. He didn't want his pitcher to have to wait? Pace of play is too slow for that to be even the least bit credible as an argument.


It sounded dumb to me at first too but then I thought about it more and I think you have to give it at least some credence.
   45. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 02:35 PM (#5547767)
Playing with this site, it looks like the difference between Yankees up 8-3, bases loaded, 2 outs, bottom of 6 and no one on, no outs, top of 7 is about 4.25%.
Yeah, that sounds about right to me. It's enough of a delta as to be a blunder given that there was absolutely no reason not to challenge, but not a huge one.
   46. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 02:46 PM (#5547790)
Girardi calls for replay, Lindor never comes to the plate,
Unless it started raining pretty darn hard or the North Koreans launched nukes, I'm pretty sure that Lindor does in fact come to the plate thereafter.
   47. Heart of Matt Harvey Posted: October 09, 2017 at 03:10 PM (#5547820)

Jesus.
   48. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 09, 2017 at 03:19 PM (#5547830)
Yeah, that sounds about right to me. It's enough of a delta as to be a blunder given that there was absolutely no reason not to challenge, but not a huge one.
I wonder how many decisions Girardi actively sought out ("We have Speedy McSpeed on the roster, and I'm going to use him as a pinch runner if I get the chance") that had less of an outcome on the game?
   49. Dog on the sidewalk Posted: October 09, 2017 at 03:28 PM (#5547846)
A 4% swing is actually pretty significant. There aren't many things a manager would realistically do in-game that would have that kind of impact. And regardless of the flaws of the replay system, as it is it's Girardi's job to challenge. You've called for managerial firings over less damaging moves, Ray.
   50. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 09, 2017 at 03:47 PM (#5547882)
I'm sure there's a game flow cart that shows how dramatically that one decision changed the odds.

Very very little, I'm sure.


Well, assuming the 97.3% chance of winning if Chisenhall had been called out is correct, the HBP made it 91%, and the subsequent HR made it 66%.
   51. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 09, 2017 at 07:55 PM (#5548381)
Well, assuming the 97.3% chance of winning if Chisenhall had been called out is correct, the HBP made it 91%, and the subsequent HR made it 66%.
Talking about the subsequent HR is cheating.
   52. Walt Davis Posted: October 09, 2017 at 08:58 PM (#5548424)
We all know that most managerial decisions have minimal effect on the probable outcome of a PA/inning/game. However, the manager's tactical job is to maximize the probabilities of the preferred outcomes as best as possible. Girardi seems to have made a series of decisions in that game that did the opposite. Before I get into this, I need to note that I did not see this game, I'm going by descriptions in the various threads.

1) Removing Sabathia ... most of the time, this is probably the right move and it'd defensible here but ...

2) According to posters here, this was Green's third time warming up in this game. That's never a good idea. Sometimes unavoidable -- it's that or have a rule that on his second warm-up, I either use him or lose him. Anyway, it's a known risk. He also threw 41 pitches 3 days earlier (2 days rest), this probably also increases the risk he is ineffective. Given the options of leaving CC in or using one of his other 7-8 relievers, it's a risky call. At best, I hope he was intending to use him for just 2-3 hitters to get out of the inning.

3) From reports here, the announcers noted his lack of stuff. It would be good if somebody checked this on statcast. If he looked ineffective then he should have been pulled as soon as another reliever was ready.

4) According to the pbp box score, he threw 14 pitches to the first 2 batters. He threw another 7 to Chisenhall. That's usually a sign that a pitcher is not at his best. Now a typical outing for him this year was about 30 pitches (2-3 days rest was not uncommon) so it's hardly damning but it is another indicator of risk.

5) Robertson got through 1.1 innings on 17 pitches. That is a bit longer than a typical outing for him and he had just 15 over 20 pitches, 5 over 30. He had thrown 52 pitches 3 days earlier. It was a risk putting him back out there for the 8th and Girardi certainly should not have been counting on him to pitch the whole inning. Was Kahnle warming from the start? (It took an extra batter to get him in so I'm guessing not but wasn't watching.) Did the Yankees not have a LHP other than Chapman to pitch to Bruce? If you're going to stretch a reliever, why not stretch Chapman (2 days rest after 20 pitches)?

6) Now you're through 8 and tied. Kahnle's only thrown 8 pitches. Why not get another inning out of him? Granted, if Kahnle loses it, the world will be howling that they lost with Chapman on the bench. But at this point, I tend towards attrition mode if I've got a good reliever already in the game who hasn't thrown many pitches. Use him to get through the 9th, then use Chapman for two if necessary. Then scramble. (If the reliever who finished the 8th is at a "high" reliever pitch count or just not a good pitcher, then replace him ... neither was true here.) On the other hand, it was the heart of the lineup and mostly LHB which tilts in Chapman's favor. Anyway, Kahnle out, Chapman in is certainly defensible and may have improved their chances.

7) Betances ... at this point he's out of great options. Betances of course has an excellent history and has dominated at times this season and, 2017 results aside, is a better reliever than Warren. Even sending him out for the bottom of the 13th, he was just on 20 pitches. Ten pitches on Gomes is obviously a sign of a tiring pitcher but it's too late by the time you know that. (A truly daring manager might have replaced him mid-PA.) Was anybody warming? Because I'm pretty sure Betances should not have been allowed to continue past that if he got Gomes.

Even if the only mistake he made was not challenging the HBP, if that moved the probability of losing by 4 %age points, that's a pretty massive gaffe on the manager's part. Let's also remember that the baseline probabilities are average hitter vs average pitcher -- if Green was in fact a tired reliever and Lindor is definitely an above-average hitter with newfound power, then the probability of a Yanks win at that point is certainly lower than the average 91% ... but probably 89 or something. Of course if Green is not tired then he looks to be an above-average pitcher, countering or even exceeding Lindor.

Still plenty of blame to go around including the Yanks' offense not scoring for the last 8 innings. Obviously the game as a whole was not their fault, they certainly did their bit but they weren't able to do their bit once it got close again.

Scoring it all up, no it's not necessarily a firing offense. But I think bringing Green in at all probably increased the risk. Not challenging to potentially get out of the inning was a total boner (esp with Sanchez calling for a review). Leaving Green in after 21 pitches increased the risk. Using Robertson to start the 8th increased the risk. Using Betances for another inning was obviously not ideal but I'm not sure he had a better option. The only move he made that might have improved his chances was Chapman for the 9th rather than Kahnle ... but I suspect that hurt by essentially pushing Betances into the game an inning earlier than he would have -- with the further obvious caveat that you don't know whether you're ever going to need Betances.

If the facts don't match the BBTF descriptions I've seen then adjust accordingly.

By the way, the way it's reported in the pbp box score as 2 pitches to Gomes when the steal occurred then 10 when Gomes got the hit. I assume that's 10 total including the earlier two, not 10 since the steal. Anybody know?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT - NBA 2017-2018 Tip-off Thread
(1395 - 8:13pm, Nov 18)
Last: don't ask 57i66135; he wants to hang them all

NewsblogOT: Winter Soccer Thread
(197 - 7:41pm, Nov 18)
Last: Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine

NewsblogOTP 13 November 2017: Politics, race now touching every sport
(1980 - 7:40pm, Nov 18)
Last: Satan Says

NewsblogOT - November* 2017 College Football thread
(181 - 7:36pm, Nov 18)
Last: Jay Z

NewsblogThe Eric Hosmer Dilemma | FanGraphs Baseball
(34 - 6:06pm, Nov 18)
Last: LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim

Hall of Merit2018 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(240 - 5:49pm, Nov 18)
Last: The Honorable Ardo

NewsblogStanton, Altuve capture first MVP Awards | MVP
(51 - 4:35pm, Nov 18)
Last: Lance Reddick! Lance him!

NewsblogJim Palmer on Mark Belanger and Omar Vizquel: The Hardball Times
(98 - 4:33pm, Nov 18)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogFangraphs: Let's Make One Thing Absolutely Clear About Aaron Judge
(22 - 3:42pm, Nov 18)
Last: Walt Davis

Hall of MeritMock 2018 Modern Baseball Committee Hall of Fame Ballot
(74 - 3:16pm, Nov 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogThe story of Alex Anthopoulos: From tragedy to prodigy to Braves GM
(1 - 8:30am, Nov 18)
Last: bfan

NewsblogBraves will lose prospects, and possibly a lot more, for violating international market rules
(48 - 1:30am, Nov 18)
Last: Armored Trooper VOTTO

NewsblogJudge, Bellinger named BBWAA Rookies of Year | MLB.com
(86 - 9:25pm, Nov 17)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogDerek Jeter addresses Giancarlo Stanton rumors | MLB.com
(24 - 7:38pm, Nov 17)
Last: Khrushin it bro

NewsblogYu Darvish is out to silence his doubters after World Series flop | SI.com
(9 - 7:15pm, Nov 17)
Last: Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant

Page rendered in 0.8545 seconds
47 querie(s) executed