Any reason why BP ranks eleven rather than the more conventional ten? Are they trying to outdo the competition? With the Braves rankings, I figured that they just ranked all the 5-, 4-, and 3-star prospects, however many there were. Apparently not...

Three of the Cubs' top 10 prospects are catchers? That's, uh, weird. Seeing's how Soto's about the only decent catcher the organization's produced since Gabby Hartnett...

Any reason why BP ranks eleven rather than the more conventional ten?

BP's lists are even louder than the BA top-10 prospect lists...they go up to eleven!!!

So what's the skinny on Patterson? Does this take into account position, i.e., now that he's an OF instead of a 2b? His numbers in AAA seem to translate to a good MLB 2b, but not a good MLB OF.

Well, Eric's got more patience than his brother, small accomplishment though that is. I seriously doubt he's going to hit enough to hold an OF spot, and I'm skeptical he'll be able to hold a second base job.

A straight 5 star for Vitters. Thats interesting.

Actually, Patterson's ranking probably "takes into account" the fact that the Cubs have a thin system. Samardzija's only 3 spots below Patterson, and he's total crap. And Patterson ranks below Colvin, who I'm far from being sold on.

Why don't you make ten a little lower, make that the bottom number?

Why don't you make ten a little lower, make that the bottom number?

(stares blankly) These go to 11.

I realize this is an old question:

Why is/was Jeff Samardzija so well thought of? He did not pitch well at ND (control problems without a lot of K's) and has not pitched well as a pro except for the summer after he was drafted.

Why is/was Jeff Samardzija so well thought of?

He played football at ND.

Well, Eric's got more patience than his brother, small accomplishment though that is.

A teenage boy alone in the backseat of the family car with a horny Jessica Biel has more patience than Eric's big brother.

Why is/was Jeff Samardzija so well thought of?

According to Goldstein: "Samardzija has all of the raw tools to become a top-flight pitcher. He's big, athletic, and can touch 97-98 mph with his fastball, while also flashing a plus slider and above-average command."

"Samardzija has all of the raw tools to become a top-flight pitcher. He's big, athletic, and can touch 97-98 mph with his fastball, while also flashing a plus slider and above-average command."

All very true. The problem with Samardzija is that he's very raw, as a pitcher. He really needs a consolidation year or two, but the Cubs are rushing him (unnecessarily, IMO, unless there's some contractual thing happening of which I'm unaware). Goldstein has him too low, IMO; I'd rather have Samardzija's future than Veal's, at this point. Veal reminds me of a former Pittsburgh pitcher with the same name, adding an E at the end. Bob Veale was only successful as long as he was because the strike zone was expanded in 1963; he never could hit the smaller zone consistently enough after that. I have a feeling that this Veal won't succeed unless they expand the zone, either.

Colvin's too low, also - I'm sure the walks are scaring stat-oriented analysts away from him, and 101/15 ain't great, but the K rate is under control (well above my 4:1 guideline, even after his midseason promotion) and his in-play numbers are good. I like him far better than anyone in this organization other than Vitters.

Goldstein is overreacting (as are people in general) to Soto's PCL numbers, which occurred in his *third* go-round in Iowa and are *far* beyond anything else he's done in his career. He's behind Vitters and Colvin, in my opinion, and I see Donaldson as likely to be better going forward as well.

-- MWE

I'm not much of a scout, but Colvin impressed me in the one game I saw him in -- two doubles (or something like that), a very pretty swing, and smooth play in CF. Much more impressive to the naked eye than Carlos Gonzalez of the BayBears, FWIW.

Did Soto's 2007 bring back memories of Karl Rhodes 1994, MikeE? Maybe Soto will hit 3 homers on Opening Day but have a disappointing MLB career before hitting a gazillion homers in Japan too.

Colvin has had poor W/K records at every level since he was drafted, and he struck out a lot in college. He may yet succeed, but the first step is for the Cubs to give him a full year at double A to see if he can learn the strike zone.

If you hit 3 homers in a game the first week of the season, you're a legend in my book. I still remember when Kevin Elster did that, and I think Dave Ross did it a couple years ago in his stint with the Pirates. Any other time in the season, it's just another news cycle. But Dave Ross led the team in homers for about a week!

Odds that Jeff Samardzija flames out in the minor leagues and ends up in the NFL someday, a la Drew Henson, Chris Weinke and John Elway? Seems to me he could be a decent white wide receiver, a la all the other decent white wide receivers.

Colvin has had poor W/K records at every level since he was drafted, and he struck out a lot in college. He may yet succeed, but the first step is for the Cubs to give him a full year at double A to see if he can learn the strike zone.

It's a common misconception that guys with poor minor league K/BB ratios don't know the strike zone. It's true of some guys, but those guys almost always fan at rates higher than 1 K/4 AB. Colvin doesn't do that; he's NOT up there hacking away. His problem isn't strike zone recognition; his problem is that he sits "dead red" far too often, and commits far too early on a lot of offspeed stuff. He has to be more consistent at recognizing the offspeed stuff; his bat speed is good enough so that he can still catch up with the fastball by holding back a bit.

I'm not much of a scout, but Colvin impressed me in the one game I saw him in -- two doubles (or something like that), a very pretty swing, and smooth play in CF.

Trust your eyes. Seriously. You watch enough baseball, if you're visiting this forum enough to post in threads like this, so that you know a lot more than you think you do. I can't emphasize that enough.

-- MWE

Goldstein is overreacting (as are people in general) to Soto's PCL numbers, which occurred in his *third* go-round in Iowa and are *far* beyond anything else he's done in his career. He's behind Vitters and Colvin, in my opinion, and I see Donaldson as likely to be better going forward as well.

He also went Babe Ruth in about 60 ABs at the pro level. I don't think he's going to be a .900 OPS guy or anything but he doesn't even have to be an .800 OPS guy to be an elite hitter for his position.

I'm very surprised you prefer Donaldson.

Goldstein is overreacting (as are people in general) to Soto's PCL numbers

Maybe, but then ZiPS is overreacting and it uses 3-4 years of data, park effects, league effects, comps, etc. So there's "something" there other than overreaction to one season. ZiPS might well be wrong, but hopefully it's not wrong by more than, oh, 100 points of OPS or so. :-)

I don't mean to treat ZiPS as infallible nor MWE as fallible and of course it's quite possible that Soto is "pretty darn good" without being "5 star" good. Just saying that one of them fancy projection systems -- one that doesn't seem to get too overheated about young players -- projects Soto to an 825 OPS which, for a C, is 5-star material or close to it.

A teenage boy alone in the backseat of the family car with a horny Jessica Biel has more patience than Eric's big brother.

Why are we limiting this to teenage boys?

I'm a little surprised to see Veal ranked ahead of Gallagher. Gallagher's been consistent his entire minor league career, and Veal really struggled last year.

When the mainstay of your act is smashing watermelons with a giant hammer, it's hard to get a lot of respect.

I'm not much of a scout, but Colvin impressed me in the one game I saw him in -- two doubles (or something like that), a very pretty swing, and smooth play in CF. Much more impressive to the naked eye than Carlos Gonzalez of the BayBears, FWIW.

I saw each a couple series this season...Colvin really knows how to play. Used the whole field hitting, played superb defense...even ran the bases very well. Gonzalez did have some pretty impressive batting practice sessions, although in games he was a mixed bag. I saw him look terrible a couple times more times than not, but the not was a massive home run to center.

It looks like Colvin could "fill out" a little more on his frame....Can the Cubs hook him up with McNeese?

Why are we limiting this to teenage boys?

Duh, because old men in the back seat with a horny Jessica Biel have less patience than Corey Patterson.

Then we fall asleep.

According to Goldstein: "Samardzija has all of the raw tools to become a top-flight pitcher. He's big, athletic, and can touch 97-98 mph with his fastball, while also flashing a plus slider and above-average command."

Fine. So why'd he have about a 1:1 K:W (and about 3 Ks per 9 IP) in A ball? Wait--maybe I'm thinking of his Zips projection. Lemme check...

OK--65:44 K:W in 141.2 innings (34 of which were at AA, the rest at high A). Still not very impressive, especially since the FSL and SL are both pitchers' leagues.

Goldstein is overreacting (as are people in general) to Soto's PCL numbers, which occurred in his *third* go-round in Iowa

I can understand being concerned about a player's third loop through a lower level, but at AAA, is it that big a deal? AAA is full of many players older than him, so its not like he is exploiting an age difference.

Regarding Samardzija, is there any data on late-blooming of players who spent a lot of time on other sports? We know some notable failures (Henson, Q. Carter, etc.), but is there anyone whose performance really jumped once he gave up the other sport? Lofton maybe?

Brian Jordan?

Fine. So why'd he have about a 1:1 K:W (and about 3 Ks per 9 IP) in A ball? Wait--maybe I'm thinking of his Zips projection. Lemme check...

Well, he's got talent, but is raw. The Cubs are rushing him because they're dumb. Scouts vs Stats, retro. Repoz should link to a roundtable on this very subject.

While the Cubs are dumb for rushing him, it's their prior dumbness that is forcing them to be dumb now. He was signed to a major league contract so he's gonna have to stick and stay stuck before he's ready.

I agree with Mike E about Soto. We'll see. 5 stars seems awfully generous for a guy who was never talked about before last season - in other instances where guys broke out (like Jordan Schafer with the Braves, for instance), at least the player had somewhat of a pedigree.

"We know some notable failures (Henson, Q. Carter, etc.), but is there anyone whose performance really jumped once he gave up the other sport? Lofton maybe?"

There are lots of live-armed pitchers that never stepped on the mound until their 20s because they were SSs, OFs and Cs. So, yeah, there are plenty of examples of guys (usually good athletes with live arms) learning to pitch later in their careers and making something of it.
And Samardjiza probably has an advantage in pitching experience, stuff and athleticism on your typical pitcher convert.

So, yeah, there are plenty of examples of guys (usually good athletes with live arms) learning to pitch later in their careers and making something of it.

Also a good number of examples of guys not breaking through as Cs until their mid-20s -- though I wouldn't be surprised if many/most of them had better pedigrees than Soto. Jorge Posada might be #1 on that list and his minor-league numbers don't look much better than Soto's to my naked eye. Barrett was a much talked about and rushed prospect but didn't find his ML hitting legs until mid-20s or later. Gregg Zaun looks reasonably similar to Soto at the minor-league level.

That's not meant to mean much -- you can find examples of anything. But Cs do seem to be kinda like LH starters where the good young ones usually flame out and it's that mediocre guy who suddenly figures it out at 26 who ends up with the good career. Of course the other 92.7% of the mediocre guys never figure it out. :-)