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Friday, May 11, 2012

Baseball Prospectus | The Lineup Card: 10 Most Disappointing Career-Ending Injuries

What about Roy Hobbs?

Jim Furtado Posted: May 11, 2012 at 08:59 AM | 77 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history

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   1. Randy Jones Posted: May 11, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4129061)
#2 on the list deserved what he got. ####### scumbag.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 09:30 AM (#4129067)
It's kind of weird putting Brien Taylor and Adam Greenberg (?) on a list with HoF and near-HoF talent players.

We don't even know if they'd have been good.

Also, can't argue with Randy.
   3. Eddo Posted: May 11, 2012 at 09:41 AM (#4129077)
Honestly, I had never heard of Adam Greenberg. And who's reading Baseball Prospectus and hasn't ever heard of Tony C?
   4. gef the talking mongoose Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4129099)
What about Pete Reiser? I suppose his injuries were cumulative rather than of the one-crippling-blow type, though.
   5. Strike4 Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4129113)
What about Mark Prior -- getting the Dusty Baker treatment?
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4129117)
Adam Greenburg, but no Bo Jackson?
   7. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM (#4129124)
walt bond?
   8. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4129135)
Hey Harveys, welcome back.** I hope all is progressing well.

** I haven't been as lurkive as usual so you may have been back for a while.
   9. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4129145)
ed

not long

i hate not being able to use capitals but i am mostly typing one-handed and getting everything to cooperate on capitals just ain't happening

i can type pretty darn fast though with my right hand. stupid left hand.

   10. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4129148)
oh and ed i know i am supposed to say thanks but when i do it makes me think thanks for not dying if that makes any sense so i have not been saying thank you much

if that makes any sense
   11. Bitter Mouse is a genre addict Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4129149)
HW - Let me second the welcome back and best wishes. We missed you. You might also want to check out one of those speech to text programs - I understand they have gotten much better and work pretty well now.

In any event be well.

EDIT: certainly no thanks needed for me :)
   12. zack Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM (#4129154)
So BP is trying to become the sabremetric Bleacher Report? It's been proven that top-10 lists draw pageviews, and are dead simple content to create, but man are they slumming it.
   13. Shooty is in the Trust Tree Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM (#4129156)
Harveys, you make as much sense as you ever did! Very glad to have you back.

Does Mike Norris' drug problem count as an injury? It's a disease!
   14. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:01 AM (#4129161)
bitter

yes. i still slur too much for it to work well and it just hacks me off
   15. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4129170)
It's kind of weird putting Brien Taylor and Adam Greenberg (?) on a list with HoF and near-HoF talent players.


I agree with you on both of these, but I kind of thought the opposite was true as well. 4 of the 10 on the list had Hall-of-Fame careers anyway. To me, the most disappointing careers hit that middle area: guy played well enough long enough to show that the Hall of Fame was a legitimate possibility, but then came up well short because of injury. Herb Score seems like the poster boy for disappointing career-ending injury to me.
   16. Smyly Smile (Walewander) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4129173)
Hey Harveys! Good to see you.

Man, I would have loved to see J.R. Richard pitch. He seems almost as dominating in his day as Drew Smyly.
   17. puck Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4129175)
You could replace Greenberg with Dickie Thon. Though it didn't end his career, he wasn't the same.

If they're including Brien Taylor and Campanella, you could probably fill the list with off-field stuff. Clemente, Munson, Bostock?
   18. Kiko Sakata Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4129184)
You could replace Greenberg with Dickie Thon. Though it didn't end his career, he wasn't the same.

If they're including Brien Taylor and Campanella, you could probably fill the list with off-field stuff. Clemente, Munson, Bostock?


Combining your first paragraph (career-ending HBP) and your second paragraph (active players dying), how the hell do you not include Ray Chapman on this list?
   19. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:13 AM (#4129186)
He seems almost forgotten, but what about Brandon Webb? The guy finished in the top 2 in Cy Young balloting three years in a row, then - poof- his career seems done at the age of 30.
   20. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM (#4129187)
. When you look at just final seasons, you can start to get a feel for just how shocking it must have been when Koufax retired. He stepped away after a 10.6 WAR season… the second-best is Shoeless Joe Jackson’s 7.3.


That's only if you ignore Jim Devlin, which a lot of people do.
   21. depletion Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4129195)
Great to see you posting, Harvey. Best of luck.
Regards,
Tim

The blurb on Koufax is not entirely true as he has come to baseball related events on occassion.
I was thinking of Randy Jones, the pitchers for the Padres. ERA champ plus 20 games, then CYA winner, then an injured nerve and a steep decline.
   22. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4129200)
@HW, I get what you are staying. I get exactly what you are saying. To the Most Interesting Poster in the World, Stay crusty, my friend.
   23. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:26 AM (#4129201)
It's kind of weird putting Brien Taylor and Adam Greenberg (?) on a list with HoF and near-HoF talent players.


The key is that "disappointing" is a very vague term that can fit a wide variety of cases. You can argue that Nolan Ryan blowing out his arm on the mound in Seattle in 1993 was extremely disappointing, because wouldn't it have been cool to have an 48-year-old power pitcher? Or you can say that Greenberg is the most disappointing on the BBPro list, in that we know he was good enough to make to the majors but don't know anything else. We can project from his minor league record and scouting reports, but we don't know anything. With Conigliaro we know that he could hit, we know J.R. Richard was a great pitcher, we know Score (and Mark Prior and a thousand other pitchers) didn't have arms that could survive the workloads they were given. Even Brien Taylor's injury in a fight tells us something about him [edit: though I admit that's cheating in this context]. We know absolutely nothing about Greenberg as an MLB player, which is disappointing. Whether that's more disappointing than, say, Conigliaro's injury depends on what you really want to know.
   24. Perry Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4129209)
Nick Esasky? Addie Joss?
   25. Neutral Milk Dotel (Dan Lee) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4129219)
Grady Sizemore? I mean, I guess he's not out of baseball yet, but it was a functional career ender. He went from being the best center fielder in the American League (at age 23, no less) to a running gag who can't hit, field, throw, or run.

Also, Jeff Gray comes to mind. Yeah, he was a setup guy, but he was a good setup guy having a crazy-great season (61.2 IP, 39 H, K/BB ratio of 4.1:1) when he just suddenly had a stroke. Poof, career over, just like that.

edit to add: Seeing Addie Joss mentioned reminds me of Austin McHenry, who hit .350/.393/.531 in his age 25 season and died of a brain tumor shortly after his age 26 season.
   26. GregD Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:42 AM (#4129220)
Nick Esasky? Addie Joss?
One of these things is not like the other....
   27. Shooty is in the Trust Tree Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4129221)
Dizzy Dean hurting himself at the all-star game might be one. Ray Fosse could be another example of this.

This guy would be a hall of famer if he hadn't been shot.
   28. Morty Causa Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4129229)
Dickie Thon was shaping up to be the shortstop in the National League, due respect to Ozzie Smith notwithstanding. He would have been a much better offensive player.

Dwight Gooden should be given some consideration. And Clemens skirted being one of these could-have-beens? How serious was that injury and surgery? It could have ended before it got started.
   29. Morty Causa Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4129241)
27:

Deam was definitely one.

Moore reminds me of:

That reminds me of this guy
   30. Smyly Smile (Walewander) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4129252)

If we expand this to other sports, I think Bryan Berard could have been a really tremendous offensive defenceman if he hadn't been almost blinded by Marian Hossa (accidentally). Leaf fans love to talk about the breaks that haven't gone our way, yet somehow that never comes up. Berard made it back, but he was never anywhere near the same player.

Wear visors, kids!

EDIT: Upon looking at his career numbers, Berard was better after than I remember him being, and not quite as good before. Anyone else want to weigh in on this? Maybe my 20-year-old self overrated him.
   31. SandyRiver Posted: May 11, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4129286)
we know Score (and Mark Prior and a thousand other pitchers) didn't have arms that could survive the workloads they were given.

The numbers don't show that for Score (though, who knows?) His '57 season began like the other two, only a bit better (by hits allowed, K rate, ERA, CG.) 60% of his career IP were pitched before he took the line drive. I think it much more likely (and recall reading it at the time) that a changed pitching motion caused the arm injury, perhaps a change caused by memories of getting nailed in '57, maybe a change intended to leave him in better fielding/defensive position. IIRC, he was a Bob Feller big windup/followthrough hurler during his good years.
   32. Tippecanoe Posted: May 11, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4129316)
Fidrych?
   33. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 11, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4129319)
Ray Fosse?
   34. Hack Wilson Posted: May 11, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4129332)
If Sany Koufax is included why not Christy Mathewson?
   35. Poulanc Posted: May 11, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4129342)
"#2 on the list deserved what he got. ####### scumbag. "

You stay classy, San Diego.
   36. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: May 11, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4129355)
I thought the real issue with J.R. Richard's stroke was his complaints of medical problems in the days/weeks beforehand were blown off by the Houston coaches and medical staff. IIRC, they thought Richard was just lazy and whining.
   37. puck Posted: May 11, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4129363)
Eh, nevermind.
   38. zonk Posted: May 11, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4129386)
Re: Greenberg...

Tragic yes, but I recall Greenberg as a prospect and he wasn't really much of one -- I think he might have had a nice career as a 4th OF in the Henry Cotto mold, but he didn't have much power and wasn't an especially gifted hitter in general... He could run a bit, wasn't totally averse to taking a walk, and had a bit of gap power. I agree he's out of place on this list.
   39. Perry Posted: May 11, 2012 at 01:54 PM (#4129393)
Nick Esasky? Addie Joss?
One of these things is not like the other....


If you're talking ability, I'll grant you that, but Esasky wasn't a bad player.
   40. Perry Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4129403)
If Sany Koufax is included why not Christy Mathewson?


Was Mathewson injured? I never knew that. He went downhill pretty fast but he was 33 when it happened and had been pitching 300+ innings a year since he was 20.


   41. GregD Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4129407)
If you're talking ability, I'll grant you that, but Esasky wasn't a bad player.
No doubt and one of my favorites as a teenager...but his issues came up after his age 29 season. That was the only season where he played more than a 125 games or posted an OPS+ over 119. Maybe he would have repeated 29 one or two more times--and a 133 OPS+ is darn good even for a left fielder or first baseman, but we had seen most of his career that point. His age comps that year include a couple of guys who added a lot--Jay Buhner, Greg Vaughn, Roy Sievers, Paul O'Neill--and some guys who did almost nothing--Deron Johnson, Willie Kirkland, Jason Kubel, Dan Pasqua, Jay Gibbons. So by that crude measure, there was a 70% chance he was going to be finished effectively in a year or two, and a 30% chance he'd have a quite effective to extremely effective 30s.
   42. YR Misses Reggie Bars Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4129409)
These lists are boring. How about the least-disappointing career-ending injuries, now there's some fresh ground!
   43. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4129415)
Was Mathewson injured?


Pretty sure he was gassed in WWI and never really recovered.
   44. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4129416)
My vote for least disappointing career-ending injury is when Joe Randa returned to the Pirates at age 36, broke his foot, and Freddy Sanchez got a chance to start at 3B and won the batting title.
   45. BDC Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4129419)
Mathewson became ineffective as a pitcher in his mid-30s, and benched himself when he became player-manager for the Reds. I think it was just the result of too many years throwing the fadeaway – though it's not like he had a short career or anything, obviously. The gas incident didn't happen till 1918; his last pitching appearance was in 1916.
   46. Don't want the truth; just wanna see some dingers Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:21 PM (#4129420)
Or when Bonilla was injured in spring training, and the Cardinals had to break camp with some rookie named Albert Pujols.
   47. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4129428)
My vote for least disappointing career-ending injury is when Joe Randa returned to the Pirates at age 36, broke his foot, and Freddy Sanchez got a chance to start at 3B and won the batting title.

Wally Pipp?
   48. YR Misses Reggie Bars Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4129429)
John Rocker?
   49. Rusty Priske Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4129430)
Mark Fidrych would be pretty high for me.

But then, so would Huck Flener.
   50. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4129435)
It seems that Wally Pipp was actually benched for no reason other than that the team sucked and they might as well let the young players play. (Huggins had already benched veteran shortstop Everett Scott and veteran catcher Steve O'Neill)

Then in an unrelated incident about a month later, Pipp had his skull fractured by a practice pitch.

Maybe everyone knew that, but I always thought it was "Pipp got injured --> Gehrig entered the lineup supposedly temporarily --> Pipp got better but his job was gone"
   51. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4129437)

Maybe everyone knew that, but I always thought it was "Pipp got injured --> Gehrig entered the lineup supposedly temporarily --> Pipp got better but his job was gone"


That's what I always heard.
   52. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4129438)
Was Mathewson injured?



Pretty sure he was gassed in WWI and never really recovered.


Well, yeah, but by the time the US entered the Great War, Matty was 2 years removed from his last ML victory, and 3 years removed from his 5th to last
   53. Perry Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4129439)
Oh, man. I can't believe we all forgot the most obvious one: Smoky Joe Wood. 34-5 at age 22, injured in spring training the next year, 3 years of part-time (but still amazingly effective) work, done at 25.
   54. Perry Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4129440)
Pretty sure he was gassed in WWI and never really recovered.


True, but he was done pitching by then.

EDIT: Cokes to Misirlou and Bob.
   55. Sweatpants Posted: May 11, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4129444)
Smoky Joe Wood. 34-5 at age 22, injured in spring training the next year, 3 years of part-time (but still amazingly effective) work, done at 25.
Done as a pitcher - he had a moderately successful comeback as an outfielder. He was a member of the 1920 World Series champion Indians.
   56. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4129456)
Kal Daniels, Steve Busby, Steve Avery.
   57. Jolly Old St. Nick Done Jumped The Ship Posted: May 11, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4129467)
Nice to see an even older old coot still hanging in there. Welcome back to my favorite BTF Spanish-American Korean War vet.

I'd put Smoky Joe Wood, Dean, Score, Conigliaro, and Fidrych at the top of my list, because they were all demonstrated Grade A talents who got cut down at an absurdly early age, when they still had many prime years ahead of them. The others were either older or unproven. Fidrych was maybe the most painful for me to see, because I was at the game in Baltimore when he first got hurt. He was coasting along with a shutout in the 6th inning when the roof fell onto him just like that, and he never recovered.

   58. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 11, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4129472)
Very, very pleased to see Harveys Wallbangers back, and undermining the premise of this thread's title.
   59. phredbird Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4129498)
The blurb on Koufax is not entirely true as he has come to baseball related events on occassion.


sandy sat down with joe torre for a long interview with tj simers at the nokia theater a couple of years ago. it was great.
   60. phredbird Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4129499)
i can see the entry about greenberg ... it must be crushing to be that guy. you work hard to get in the show, and that's it? a beaning?

but the article seems to be all over the map, and inconsistent.
   61. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4129508)
I'm voting for Mike Sirotka.
   62. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4129516)
I'd put Smoky Joe Wood, Dean, Score, Conigliaro, and Fidrych at the top of my list, because they were all demonstrated Grade A talents who got cut down at an absurdly early age, when they still had many prime years ahead of them.


The thing about Fidrych, is that he had an absurdly low strikeout rate, 3.5 per 9. Very, very few pitchers have had long successful careers with that low of a rate, and most of them were crafty lefties. Since 1950, only 21 pitchers had a K/( rate of 3.6 of worse and pitched 100+ IP and 100+ GS. I think either he would hve improved the K rate, which is possible, or his upside would have been Larry Sorenson or Bob Forsch. Not half bad, but not legendary.
   63. God Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4129522)
I see a couple of Ray Fosse mentions above and I feel obligated to do my part to deflate this urban legend that has somehow taken hold.

The demise of Ray Fosse's career had absolutely zero to do with Pete Rose. A simple look at Baseball-Reference, for instance, reveals that Fosse did not miss a single game after the Rose collision, and went on to be an All-Star again the next season. Other, later injuries derailed his career.
   64. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4129528)
As an agnostic, I do not know what to do with the previous comment.
   65. Misirlou is bad, he's nationwide Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:36 PM (#4129534)
Take it to the Phoenix HS thread.
   66. Tippecanoe Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4129540)
The thing about Fidrych, is that he had an absurdly low strikeout rate, 3.5 per 9. Very, very few pitchers have had long successful careers with that low of a rate, and most of them were crafty lefties. Since 1950, only 21 pitchers had a K/( rate of 3.6 of worse and pitched 100+ IP and 100+ GS. I think either he would hve improved the K rate, which is possible, or his upside would have been Larry Sorenson or Bob Forsch. Not half bad, but not legendary.


Valid, but his colorful personality is what I'm disappointed we missed, not his upside.
   67. cardsfanboy Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4129542)
I would rather have had Albert Belle on the list than Kirby Puckett.
   68. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4129545)
I would rather have had Albert Belle on the list than Kirby Puckett.

Yeah, much nicer guy.
   69. Guapo Posted: May 11, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4129553)
The demise of Ray Fosse's career had absolutely zero to do with Pete Rose. A simple look at Baseball-Reference, for instance, reveals that Fosse did not miss a single game after the Rose collision, and went on to be an All-Star again the next season. Other, later injuries derailed his career.


Tell that to Ray Fosse
   70. God Posted: May 11, 2012 at 05:08 PM (#4129564)
Obviously, Ray Fosse has a huge vested interest in playing along with the mythology, just like Ruth did in 1932.

For one thing, it's the only way his name is going down in history. For another, having someone else to blame for the demise of his career is certainly convenient. It sounds a lot better than "Well, I was just injury prone and probably not really that great anyway."
   71. Cuban X Senators Posted: May 11, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4129640)
Glenn Davis: The degenerative nerve condition in his neck/shoulder coulda been Honorable Mention tragic. The getting hit by a foul ball in the dugout weeks into his attempted comeback mighta bumped him up a notch. But the subsequent comeback-ender brawl with a bouncer in Tidewater was just a semi-comic relief of an anvil upside the head.
   72. bigglou115 Posted: May 11, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4129649)
edit: read the full article too fast. This is part of why I don't subscribe to BP anymore, the formatting is too busy.
   73. ShoeGrit Posted: May 11, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4129766)
I know it won't be on anyone else's radar, but Brandon Webb's shoulder injury is up there pretty high for me. Coming off a 3 year run of 233 IP, 150 ERA+ per year, and a 22-7, 140 ERA+ season in 2008, he made one start in 2009, and that was the end of his career a month before his 30th birthday.

Oh, and Tony C leaned in.......
   74. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: May 11, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4129924)
Jim Creighton.

Personally, I always found Corey Koskie's injury pretty sad, but I guess that's not the same thing as disappointing (unless you're Bill Hall and one of the best highlights of your career is forever marred).
   75. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 11, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4129971)
Not sure if injury should include disease, but if Puckett, why not Gehrig - a far better player and person?
   76. ShoeGrit Posted: May 12, 2012 at 02:59 AM (#4130101)
At least Gehrig got to play most of his career. He could have played a couple more years at top level probably without the disease, but he was 36 when he got too sick to play. He played in over 2100 games and had nearly 10,000 PA's.
   77. Flynn Posted: May 12, 2012 at 04:56 AM (#4130105)
The thing about Fidrych, is that he had an absurdly low strikeout rate, 3.5 per 9. Very, very few pitchers have had long successful careers with that low of a rate, and most of them were crafty lefties. Since 1950, only 21 pitchers had a K/( rate of 3.6 of worse and pitched 100+ IP and 100+ GS. I think either he would hve improved the K rate, which is possible, or his upside would have been Larry Sorenson or Bob Forsch. Not half bad, but not legendary.


Fidrych was better at almost everything compared to Forsch or Sorensen, and in some areas it's not especially close. Fidrych's career before he totally blew out his arm is tiny, of course, but he was pretty much a study in how to be successful without striking people out.

He gave up 15 home runs in 300 innings in Tiger Stadium. He walked under 2 men per 9 innings. You couldn't run on him as he gave up 21 stolen bases in 300 innings (This is the only thing Sorensen was better at, but you could run on Forsch). He gave up 53 extra base hits in 300 innings. His BABIP for those 300 innings was .262, which was low but not so that it would jeopardize his status as a top pitcher.

So the only way you could score runs off him was through lots of singles, and predictably that didn't work out too well in 1976/77/78. I don't know whether he could sustain his extraordinary success in preventing runs via ways other than the strikeout, but he also could have gained more strikeouts as well: he was not a soft-tossing pitcher, but rather a hard Kevin Brown-style sinker, hard slider type of pitcher. If he developed a curveball or a changeup he could have picked up more strikeouts to compensate for his fall from otherworldly status in walks, home runs, XBHs.

It would have been fascinating to watch his career unfold, not just because of his effervescent personality, but because of the way he approached pitching, which I don't think we've ever really seen before or since.

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