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Sunday, July 08, 2007

Baseball Time in Arlington: Otsuka for Gwynn Jr. deal would have been disaster

Now that I think about it, turning Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez into Tony Gwynn Jr. is a pretty sobering thought.

Basically, you have a fast, light-hitting center fielder who’s probably a bit overrated thanks to his legendary father. He’s hitting .310/.368/.356 this year, but that’s in a very limited sample size of 87 AB, and his career minor league batting line of .271/.351/.343 doesn’t bode real well for his chances of keeping that pace up.

On the flip side, you have Aki Otsuka, who’s been one of the best relievers in baseball for 3 1/2 years, has dominated in a fairly tough ballpark, and with the exception of his recent forearm strain, has been as healthy as just about any player in baseball since signing with the Padres in December 2003.

[...]

What this all really boils down to is this: if Jon Daniels was actually ready to deal Aki for Gwynn straight up, he’s learned a lot less from his failures in the trade market than I thought. It’s not a move that helps you right now, nor one that’s probably going to help you a whole lot in the future.

And if this had gone down (or still does go down) in its present form, without any other players coming back from the Brewers, it really hurts my confidence in Daniels to make quality deals during this trade season.

The Ghost of Pete Incaviglia Posted: July 08, 2007 at 09:52 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: brewers, rangers

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   1. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 08, 2007 at 11:45 PM (#2434116)
If the Brewers took a pass on this because of Hall's injury I am disappointed. Tony Gwynn Jr. doesn't have a long-term future with Milwaukee beyond being a fourth outfielder. Gabe Gross and Corey Hart can play an acceptable centerfield. The Brewers need a reliable arm in the bullpen like 28 other teams. To flip a guy who is replacement value at best for a pitcher who has had success in a tougher league in a hitters ballpark is a pretty good deal no matter how you slice it. And this is without drilling down into the states.

If Gwynn Jr. hits .300 over 400 plate appearances in a single season I will be surprised.........
   2. NTNgod Posted: July 08, 2007 at 11:59 PM (#2434133)
If the Brewers took a pass on this because of Hall's injury I am disappointed

Otsuka got hurt/is hurting, too.

If the Rangers were smart, and looking for an expendable Milwaukee OFer with little service time (before the Hall injury), Gross would have been the guy to go after (has power, will take a walk, plays all three OF positions, was seeing little playing time).

But, well, you know...

If Gwynn Jr. hits .300 over 400 plate appearances in a single season I will be surprised

He showed a lot of improvement this year over last year in his approach (certainly more willing to take a walk), I thought, and he's supposedly got a (Bill)Hall-level work ethic.
With his speed (I love when he drag bunts), I could see him sneak a .300 year in there at some point of his career, although with no power beyond the speed-hit kind (turning a single into a double, double into a triple).
   3. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:05 AM (#2434140)
NTN:

Ya' know, it's ok every so often to exploit the weak and stupid. Not often mind you but every so often.

Your need to be honest and helpful at all times is somewhat concerning.............
   4. Keith Law Posted: July 09, 2007 at 12:40 AM (#2434179)
if Jon Daniels was actually ready to deal Aki for Gwynn straight up, he’s learned a lot less from his failures in the trade market than I thought.

That's a pretty strong statement from a writer who's (over)reacting to a trade rumor.
   5. JoeHova Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:07 AM (#2434204)
I would have been happy with this deal. I don't see Gwynn ever being a good player unless his defense is Andruw Jones in his prime-esque. I think it's more likely that he tops out at a .650 OPS than at a .700 OPS.

NTN- Gwynn seems that fast to you? He doesn't seem as fast as advertised to me. He only had a 72% stolen base success rate in the minors, which doesn't seem great and he's only got 85 doubles or triples out of 468 hits in the minors. Compare that to Jose Reyes who had 100 doubles or triples out of 371 hits in the minors.
   6. JoeHova Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:07 AM (#2434205)
shoot, double post. I got a bad server response the first time I hit submit.
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:16 AM (#2434214)
So I take it the Rangers have a very good CF prospect in the minors, who's about ready to take over in CF?
   8. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:18 AM (#2434216)
Joe:

If his defense were that good he would be playing and either Hall or Weeks would have been traded. Great defensive centerfielders who look like they can hit a bit get a place on most teams.

Gwynn has to get on base to have value. His defense is ok. His speed is ok. But if he's not posting a .370 OBP he's a backup.
   9. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:23 AM (#2434219)
I'd give David Murphy AND a couple of arms for Otsuka.
   10. NTNgod Posted: July 09, 2007 at 01:37 AM (#2434233)
NTN- Gwynn seems that fast to you? He doesn't seem as fast as advertised to me.

I had no expectations of him being a super-blazer, so perhaps I just had lower expectations:
Quick enough to play pretty good (not great) defense, steal some bases if he can improve his technique (6-7 this year, given the situations Yost often likes to run in, isn't shabby), etc...

I was simply hoping for useful part, with a small possibility of improving his hitting enough to become something more, I guess.

I'm not the world's biggest Otsuka fan, so I hope he's not someone Melvin really, really wants and is willing to give up a lot for.
Kinda of a more durable, slightly better Matt Wise with a deceptive delivery and a falling strikeout rate.
   11. NNDN3 Posted: July 09, 2007 at 04:22 PM (#2434726)
#7: No, they don't, but how does it really benefit the Rangers to trade one of their best pitchers for a center fielder who's probably near replacement level? Freddy Guzman has a .264/.340/.365 in AAA, they could probably promote him with similar effects and keep Aki in the process.

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