Pros: Plus-plus fastball; oozes projection
Cons: Inconsistent secondary offerings
Best Case Scenario: Top of the rotation starter
Realistic Scenario: Top of the rotation starter

I stopped reading here, though I was concerned with this:

Our actual ranking methodology is comprised of a multitude of variables, including upside, tools, proximity to the big leagues, age, statistics, and - in a few cases - our gut instincts. Talent trumps all, of course.

I stopped reading here, though I was concerned with this:

I didn't. The realistic projection for the top 9 prospects is to be valuable major league regulars, and 17 of the top 20 to hold regular major league roster spots, all coming up in the next 4 years. Right.

Neftali Feliz will be cubically transformed soon

He (they?) included Smoak, who isn't signed, but didn't include any other unsigned 2008 draftees that I can see. I think it's weird to include an unsigned player, and weirder still to choose just one, since Robbie Ross is not an inferior prospect to all 25 guys on this list.

How does German Duran compare to Juan Duran? And does either one of them have a greater shot at fame than Duran Duran?

Why does Smoak's realistic profile have him playing average defense while his upside has him playing gold glove defense? I don't get that. 1B defense isn't something that's not going to translate to the majors. We know he has a sparkling glove, and barring something which I can't even think of, that's not going to change. I don't think defense will move linearly with projection like batting production will.

How does German Duran compare to Juan Duran?

The former has a more efficient swing and better plate discipline.

Neither one would make it out of the first round with Roberto Duran.

The problem with Smoak isn't that his glove might only be average, it's that he could end up hitting like Adam LaRoche (or worse). I'd expect better, but I think it's a little presumptuous to presume "middle of the order masher" is the 50th percentile of his hitting projection.

Many thanks to those who have stopped by to read our Top 25, whether you may agree with our rankings or not. I'll try to address the concerns one by one:

- Regarding Feliz, all indications coming out of Clinton are that he is making serious progress with his secondary pitches and command in the MWL, which, when combined with his already nasty fastball and plus athleticism, gives him an ace-like ceiling. He's simply not giving us any reason to doubt him; I suspect more than one highly respected minor league analyst will grace him with a top-25 ranking in all of baseball this coming winter.

Of course, Jason just informed me his "realistic scenario" on Feliz was tongue-in-cheek. Go figure.

- Regarding our ranking methodology, "statistics" probably isn't terribly clear. "Statistical performance" would probably be more accurate. And age is all relative, of course: Elvis Andrus hitting decently as a 19-year-old shortstop in AA is far more notable than John Mayberry Jr. tearing up AAA as a 24-year-old outfielder. We didn't have one all-encompassing formula that we used to compile these rankings, and if that turns some off to this list I apologize.

Misirlou: I have to imagine this will be considered a consensus top-two system behind TB come this winter (barring some dramatics at the trade deadline). I'd be legitimately interested to hear who you believe we horribly missed the mark on in terms of their realistic scenario/ETA.

The irony is that we're taking some flack in Rangers fandom for being too pessimistic on some prospects.

Keith: Ross would have placed in my top 25, albeit just barely; though I didn't explicitly mention it in our methodology, his bonus demands are a concern (he reportedly wants north of $1.6M as a 57th-overall pick), and the possibility of him not signing hurts a little. We have no such concerns about Smoak, who I expect to take negotiations pretty close to the deadline but ultimately sign.

Even when throwing out the signability concerns, Ross didn't crack Jason's top 25; this is a tremendously deep system, and just because he was the Rangers' second selection in the June draft doesn't automatically guarantee him entry. Where would you have placed Ross, Keith?

#6 and #10: Fair enough. We'll certainly take those thoughts on Smoak under consideration. Prospect ranking is such a subjective art that we expected all along to generate plenty of controversy, but we tried to produce an objective, informative list that would serve as an accurate indicator of this system's ridiculous repository of young talent. And hopefully some believe we succeeded in that regard.

Thanks,

Joey

#6 and #10: Fair enough. We'll certainly take those thoughts on Smoak under consideration. Prospect ranking is such a subjective art that we expected all along to generate plenty of controversy, but we tried to produce an objective, informative list that would serve as an accurate indicator of this system's ridiculous repository of young talent. And hopefully some believe we succeeded in that regard.

Well you failed, miserably.

Nah, I'm kidding. The list is good, it's just something that struck me as funny.

For instance, when Drew Stubbs was at Texas, there were always questions about his bat, but his defense was +. When people projected him as a pro, all I heard was "His bat is a question, but he could win a gold glove right now." I agree with that, I think good defense translates, so I thought it was bizarre when you shifted his defense up and down based on best possible scenario. My line of thinking is that defense remains relatively constant, though obviously you are compared with much superior fielders at higher levels.

Even more germane, how does he compare to Duran Duran?

No chance of matching Duran Duran's RIO-era peak, and no chance of matching Duran Duran's surprising longevity (they seem to pop up every five years or so, after they've long been written off for dead)

Hi, I'm Kevin, and every single joke I've ever tried to make on this site was already made a few posts before mine. I'll be here all week!

I had no idea the Texas Rangers had a fan.

Sometimes I think this place should be called Baseball Snark Factory.

Sometimes I think this place should be called Baseball Snark Factory.

Half of what I post can only dream of rising to the level of snark.

- Regarding Feliz, all indications coming out of Clinton are that he is making serious progress with his secondary pitches and command in the MWL, which, when combined with his already nasty fastball and plus athleticism, gives him an ace-like ceiling. He's simply not giving us any reason to doubt him; I suspect more than one highly respected minor league analyst will grace him with a top-25 ranking in all of baseball this coming winter.

Clinton, IA. . . Woop woop!!

I think the most important question about Neftali Feliz right now is: Can he swim?

his bonus demands are a concern (he reportedly wants north of $1.6M as a 57th-overall pick)

I was the one who reported that, having gotten the number ($1.575 million) from Ross himself.

I was the one who reported that, having gotten the number ($1.575 million) from Ross himself.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I was the one who reported that, having gotten the number ($1.575 million) from Ross himself.

My apologies, then - I originally came across that figure in the Lexington Herald-Leader. And there were rumblings (albeit likely erroneous ones) that he wanted even more than that.

I'm still not quite sure what that has to do with RR's exclusion from our Top 25, however.

I ended up reading the whole thing and was surprised at the rankings, as #2 points out.

"Realistically", I'd think any system is going to have only a quarter or so of their top prospects even get a cup of coffee, much less make up an entire above average starting rotation.

And I'd suggest anything wanting to be taken seriously shouldn't include lines like "oozes projection". The non-ESPN readers just aren't going to buy that.

Sometimes I think this place should be called Baseball Snark Factory.

All of this Snark was already written down years ago on rec.sports.baseball

I think Davis is going to be very, very good. His minor league K rates, while high, were not excessive (Bakersfield was the only red flag year, and Sam Lynn Park is pretty quirky in a lot of ways), and his in-play averages were also good. I like that he's hit a goodly number of doubles, too. He doesn't walk a lot, but he makes up for it when making contact, IMO. Most of the indicators are positive.

As I've said before, I want to see Smoak hit consistently with wooden bats, in environments less friendly than Sarge Frye, before I get on that bandwagon.

The top two are as good as any one/two combo around; below that, I have lots of questions and (as yet) not a lot of answers.

-- MWE

And I agree with Keith: Ross should have been in there someplace.

-- MWE