So, prospect people: I have the number one farm pick in our NL draft. Bruce and Rasmus are taken. Does it come down to Kershaw or Maybin? If so, who do I take?

TINSTAAP! I'd go with Maybin. I don't trust Dodger pitching prospects and Maybin is probably going to get a lot of playing time soon.

Andrus is already up to #19? The Braves are going to rue the Texeira trade for a long time.

Thanks AG#1F. That's pretty much my thinking; only think that scotches it is if Maybin breaks camp with Florida, making him ineligible as a farm pick.

BA has a reputation of giving more credit to potential than major-league readiness, but this top 20 list is dominated by guys at or near the majors -- is that typical? I'm particularly surprised to see Brandon Wood (already 23) still this high on the list -- a comment not so much on his performance as his age.

Wood is blocked only by Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis
(/sarcasm)

Kershaw over Maybin, who is too toolsy. Yes, pitching prospects bust, but how else are you going to get potentially great ones in that format? I'd get Jarrod Parker at some point if you could, too.

Is there going to be a separate thread for Sox fans yelling at Yankee fans that Buchholz is better than Joba, and vice versa, or should we just put that in here?

I don't trust Dodger pitching prospects
Why?

The "Best of the Rest" list is interesting. Someone had Rangers LHP Matt Harrison 35th, while two other writers didn't have him in their top 150. Another Rangers prospect, Engel Beltre, was rated 27th by one writer and left out of the top 150 by two others.

I wonder if it was the same guy?

Chris Kline was the one who had Beltre 27th.

I don't trust Dodger pitching prospects
Why?

Alyssa Milano.

This Top 100 is clearly the worst, as it has far fewer of my prospects than does either Sickels or Goldstein.

"Andrus is already up to #19? The Braves are going to rue the Texeira trade for a long time."

I can't see that being much different then where BA would have ranked him had they made their top 100 a day before the Tex trade.
He did go .300 as a Ranger in 110 High-A ABs, vs. .244 in 385 ABs at the same level as a Brave but tons of that can be attributed to the difference between one of the best offensive environments in baseball (Cal League) and one of the worst (Myrtle Beach) as well as normal variations in monthy hitting

And are you serious about part two of that sentence? Where some teenager lands on a list is going to make someone regret a trade all of thesudden?

Seems like a lot of catchers:

#12 Matt Wieters (Baltimore)
#42 Jeff Clement (Seattle)
#47 Geovany Soto (CHN)
#53 JR Towles (Houston)
#79 Hank Conger (LAA)
#80 Taylor Teagarden (Texas)
#85 Bryan Anderson (St. Louis)

From the blurb, it sounds like BA put him at 19 because of his AFL performance.

And are you serious about part two of that sentence? Where some teenager lands on a list is going to make someone regret a trade all of thesudden?


Why not? Decisions and value are based on evaluation and perception. That BA thinks highly of Andrus should be encouraging for Rangers fans.

Why not? Decisions and value are based on evaluation and perception. That BA thinks highly of Andrus should be encouraging for Rangers fans.

BA also thinks highly of Schafer, Heyward, and Brandon Jones, and their major league shortstop is 25 and has five years of service time left. Their middle infield is young and good. Their outfield will be real young and real good. It's not like the Braves sold their entire young talent base to get Tex. This isn't an old team running on fumes. If they can't resign him, they'll probably regret it, yes, but they're not going to be wandering in the woods for the next ten years because of it.

I think the Braves have a very strong farm system, so we're not in disagreement there.

I think it's an issue of how much value was given up, and in this case, I think the Braves gave up too much on their side. I like young talented middle infielders, perhaps valuing them more than most BTFers.

"Why not? Decisions and value are based on evaluation and perception. That BA thinks highly of Andrus should be encouraging for Rangers fans."

It sure should. That doesn't mean that the Braves, who have scouted and managed this kid for years, should go and regret acquiring one of the best hitters in the game because of what BA ranked a guy. They knew what they were doing.

I think it can be a mistake to deal good prospects for mediocrities, or sometimes for 3-month rentals, but I don't see how giving up good prospects for a great young player you can keep for at least 1.5 years, and maybe more, can be a mistake

That doesn't mean that the Braves, who have scouted and managed this kid for years, should go and regret acquiring one of the best hitters in the game because of what BA ranked a guy. They knew what they were doing.

The Braves front office know a whole lot more about Andrus than I, and their history in terms of who to trade and who to keep is very strong.

But I can't just go off of blind faith here. I have no sources describing what specifically the Braves saw in Andrus. I do have his numbers, and I do have the opinions of various internet sources and now BA. It appears that Andrus is one of the fast risers in terms of prospect status.

So from my viewpoint, I see Salty/Andrus/Harrison + 2 more prospects in exchange for Texeira. That's a bad trade, IMO.

That's a bad trade, IMO.

I agree that the Braves gave up a lot and said so at the time, but I don't think its a bad trade.
Andrus, the few times I have seen him, reminds me of OC, less pop, higher average. He can still develop power, but I am a bit skeptical. But still an above league average SS. Problem is, the Braves have Yunel and Lillibridge in front of him. Unless he turns into Derek Jeter.....
Salty also loses much of his value if he doesn't stick at C, and there was no way he was sticking at C in Atlanta. Above average 1Bman.
Harrison is the kind of starter Braves specialise. Polished lefty with good control throwing 90 but no out pitch. The problem arose when Harrison was diagnosed with shoulder problems. He supposedly was pitching in the mid-90s in the AFL though, which might take him the next level.
Because of Harrison's shoulder problems, and the Braves' obvious need to upgrade at 1B, they gave up two lottery tickets. Former first round, hard throwing lefty with no control in Beau Jones and hard throwing righty from Dominican who can hit 100 but no secondary pitches in Neftali Feliz ( ranked in the 90s on this list )

So the Braves upgraded on their biggest major league and farm weakness for atleast 1.5 yrs ( and a signing window ) by giving up a future 1B, SS and back of the rotation starter.
If either of Feliz/Jones becomes more than a good reliever, I would say the Braves lost the trade, but its a risk they have to take given where their roster is. It also enabled them to say bye bye to Andruw, and we will see how that works out.

So in short, the Braves went for a sure shot HUGE upgrade while giving up some future regulars ( who might be blocked in ATL )and a cpl of lottery tickets. Its a lot to give up, but I would pull the trigger on it.

Thanks for a very good post, Ludwig. I thought it was a bad trade before your post, now I think it's Milledge level bad. Harrison can throw mid 90s? Hard throwing left? 100MPH gunning righty?

There's no way that Tex is that much better than Salty that it can make up for Harrison and Andrus + 2 wild cards + salary difference. Again, the Braves are a lot smarter than I am but, man, I would be bitter if my team made that type of exchange.

There's no way that Tex is that much better than Salty that it can make up for Harrison and Andrus + 2 wild cards + salary difference.

In isolation, yes. But you have to look at where the Braves are in their success cycle. Case of a bird in hand is better than 3 in the bush.
And Tex is a big improvement over Salty at 1B. Even if eventually Salty breaks through to well above average, it won't be for a cpl of years. And the Braves want to maximise their success while Chipper/Smoltz/Hudson are still good.

And I was very surprised when I heard Harrison hit mid 90s in the AFL. Had shown nothing like that before. Looked like a clone of Moss/HoRam/Odalis Perez till then. If he can hit the mid 90s, he will be very successful, because everyone raves about his control and polish.
Beau Jones had attitude along with his control issues and has spent 2 yrs in low A. Most Braves' fans I know thought it was really overkill when Feliz was added to the group too. That Tex was amazing since he came over has made lot of us forget the price that was paid.

Don't overlook Ron Mahay in that trade. After Mike Gonzalez went down, the Braves really needed another lefty in the bullpen. (McBride didn't get it done, and then Ledezma didn't get it done after him.) That was an area of the team that the Braves really needed to address for their playoff push. Of course, they didn't make the playoffs, but that was by no fault of Mahay, who pitched very well. Mahay by himself was probably worth Feliz and Jones. I think they get draft pick compensation for him, too.