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Friday, March 07, 2008

BBD: Voros: Chris Lubanski and Billy Butler

If I’m not mistaken…I once saw Butler Lubanski whip up on Baron Mikel Scicluna at the Garden in 1970.

An interesting thought struck me today watching the Royals play the Diamondbacks. In 2003 and 2004 the Royals selected a pair of High School sluggers with their first round picks: Chris Lubanski (5th - 2003) and Billy Butler (14th - 2004). In the game Butler homered to center and Lubanski hit a medium deep fly ball to right.

The interesting thing about them is how vastly different their builds are. Butler’s got short legs with a whole bunch of weight gathered in the center of his body. Lubanski has the classic athlete’s body, long and lean with broad shoulders. Butler doesn’t move real well, and Lubanski sort of glides around. In Moneyball terms, Lubanski is selling blue jeans and Butler is not. However I think it’s unfair to then draw some sort of conclusion from Butler’s higher level of success so far (though Lubanski is still a prospect). What’s more interesting to me is that the same organization and same GM took such radically different looking type of sluggers with first round picks in consecutive years.

Repoz Posted: March 07, 2008 at 02:11 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: royals, scouting

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   1. twill Posted: March 07, 2008 at 03:08 PM (#2708007)
What’s more interesting to me is that the same organization and same GM took such radically different looking type of sluggers with first round picks in consecutive years.



Maybe it's because Lubanski wasn't even remotely a slugger when the Royals drafted him.
   2. The elusive Robert Denby Posted: March 07, 2008 at 03:54 PM (#2708038)
Maybe it's because Lubanski wasn't even remotely a slugger when the Royals drafted him.

That's the way I remembered it, as well. Lubanski was more a Johnny Damon type when he was drafted, wasn't he?
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 07, 2008 at 04:19 PM (#2708064)
Yea, I think they thought Lubanski would develop power, but he had a smaller frame, not much power at the time, and was very speedy. Since being drafted he has bulked up and lost much of the speed.

Thoughts on Lubanski? Many on Royals boards are down on him. Seems like he always struggles for half a season upon being promoted a level, then tears it up after that. He was exposed to the Rule 5 and wasn't taken. Is there still hope for him or is he pretty much a bust?
   4. twill Posted: March 07, 2008 at 04:36 PM (#2708081)
As a Royals fan, I'm still high on him, but as you said it seems most other fans have given up on him. Won't he only be 23 this year?
   5. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: March 07, 2008 at 07:08 PM (#2708183)
I can't imagine drafting a guy his size and not expecting him to hit for power. What's the point of being 6'4" if you don't hit for power? Or did he grow late?
   6. twill Posted: March 07, 2008 at 07:18 PM (#2708196)
He may have, I just remember when they drafted him he was a thought of more as a high average, speed guy who might pop about 10-12 homers a year. As he progressed he must have filled out because he used to be a good defensive centerfielder with great speed and now is an average (at best from what I understand) leftfielder with average speed. But this was also five years and many beers ago, so my memory might be off a little.
   7. shoewizard Posted: March 07, 2008 at 09:29 PM (#2708293)
Not really central to anything in this article or thread, but the HR Butler hit yesterday was an absolute frozen rope to CF. You can hit a ball further than that, but you can't hit it any harder.
   8. Zach Posted: March 08, 2008 at 07:10 AM (#2708586)
My theory for how you can draft two such dissimilar players in successive years: Allard Baird was addicted to upside. He would always view a player in light of the very best he could possibly imagine that player performing. If you think you're getting Rickey Henderson one year and Harmon Killebrew the next, you draft both and laugh all the way to the bank. If they don't pan out, well... Look! There's a minor league free agent who was a first round draft pick five years ago!
   9. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: March 08, 2008 at 08:15 AM (#2708601)
It seems to me from what I've seen of Lubanski and looking at his stats and what you guys are saying is that someone like Shawn Green I guess would have been the upside projection. A quick guy with some defensive ability, but enough size to hit for good power.

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