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Saturday, December 10, 2011

BBTIA: Matschulat: Ian Kinsler’s Next Big Deal

The liberation of Arlington begins now! (oh…wait)

Said Kinsler of his situation: “I want to stay here. I was drafted by the Rangers, and I want to be a Ranger. You never know how long it’s going to take. I think the sooner the better for them, and the sooner the better for me.”

For all of the misled—though slowly disappearing—carping about Kinsler popping up too often and being a terrible baserunner and exhibiting bad body language and (my personal favorite) “not being a team player,” he’s quietly developed into one of the better second basemen of our generation, and could very easily be argued to be one of the three best second basemen in the game at the moment. Only two other second basemen—Chase Utley (25.9 fWAR) and Dustin Pedroia (23.0 fWAR)—have produced more wins above replacement by FanGraphs’ calculations from 2008-present than Kinsler’s 20.8 fWAR ... and by Baseball Reference’s reckoning, Kinsler has produced one of the best age 26-29 windows of any second baseman in baseball history…

...If you pointed a gun to my head right now and demanded that I tell you what I thought a reasonable deal might look like, I’d probably suggest tacking three years onto Kinsler’s existing deal at an average annual value of $17 million, which would handsomely compensate Kinsler while concurrently giving Texas a solid chance of earning some surplus value and, in effect, coming out “ahead” on the deal. Over the last 72 hours, though, I’ve found that my own definition of “reasonable” has been very much at odds with the Rangers’ definition, so perhaps I’m just barking up the wrong tree.

Repoz Posted: December 10, 2011 at 03:51 PM | 3 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, history, projections, rangers, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 10, 2011 at 05:35 PM (#4012521)
He overrates Kinsler a little. The '08-'11 time frame selects out Zobrist (didn't play) and Cano (freaky bad year), both of whom I'd take over Kinsler. Kinsler's still a top-5 2B.

But, given that Kinsler 30 next year, and Texas already controls him through 2013 ($10M option), and lots of 2B's completely collapse in the age 32 area, I wouldn't be in any rush to extend Kinsler.

As a Yankee fan, I feel the same way about Cano (who's 6 mos. younger). I wouldn't extend him unless he gives a pretty solid discount from market.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#4012702)
Given the info in #1 ... yeah, that would be kinda nuts. $17 M a year would make him the highest paid 2B (although maybe not the case by 2014). If they wanted to approach him with a buyout of this year and the option year -- i.e. we have you signed for 2/$17 how about we make that 4/$42 -- that might be worth discussing.
   3. Something Other Posted: December 12, 2011 at 09:24 AM (#4013831)
-- i.e. we have you signed for 2/$17 how about we make that 4/$42 -- that might be worth discussing.
Well, probably not worth discussing from Kinsler's point of view. If you believe bWAR, he's been a 5 win player three or the last four seasons, and the fourth season wasn't too shabby, either. Why would Kinsler sign up for 2/25 at this point, unless he thought he was going to miss one of those years after blowing out his knee?

I realize 2Bmen are underpaid but I can't see why, unless he's been feeling woozy of late, that Kinsler would settle for just two years, and the least dollars he'd be likely to get per season as a FA. GMs still think 32 isn't old.

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