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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, January 09, 2013
Nobody. Not one. Ugh. Click the link to see the results. A winning candidate did not emerge from the Hall of Fame balloting conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and verified by Ernst & Young. There were 569 ballots cast, the third highest total in the history of the voting, but none of the 37 candidates in the 2013 vote gained mention on the required 75 percent for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
Craig Biggio, who totaled 3,060 hits and was a seven-time All-Star while playing three positions (catcher, second base, outfield), topped the ballot with 388 votes – 39 shy of the 427 needed for election. His total reflected 68.2 percent of the electorate, which consists of BBWAA members with 10 or more consecutive years of Major League Baseball coverage. Five blank ballots were among those submitted. Other players named on more than half the ballots were pitcher Jack Morris with 385 (67.7 percent), first baseman Jeff Bagwell with 339 (59.6), catcher Mike Piazza with 329 (57.8) and outfielder Tim Raines with 297 (52.2).
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Biggio -2, Piazza -2.5, Raines -7, Bagwell even, Morris +8
Unbelievable.
Shooty, would you have found space to vote for him on a 10 player ballot? I know I couldn't, not on one as stacked as this.
The Hall of Fame? Not so much.
Hopefully something good can come of this, which would be relieving the BBWAA of a right and a privilege for which it has no appreciation in any sense of the word.
Plenty of ballots didn't go to 10 names. The steroids haters could have easily found room on their ballots for Lofton or Williams. The blank ballot morons did no one any favors.
The bad news is that Maddux, Thomas, Mussina and Glavine (and Jeff Kent) are joining the logjam.
Because all of the writers think Biggio is "clean", and think (assume) Piazza/Bagwell are "dirty".
He wasn't a home run hitter, therefore he couldn't have been a roider /sarc
Coke to slothinator
Hints of roids, non-power hitter, harder to measure skills(such as defense) etc.
Ridiculous.
My, what low standards you have!
I'm to the point that I would have been happy to see both Morris and Biggio go in, reducing the logjam somewhat.
Bacne forearms mumble mumble.
They will also be honoring THE ENTIRE CLASS OF 1945. Good to know that after 70 years they don't know any better than to sweep this group under the rug.
Something banal and supportive of the process. Don't expect much.
Not much. They may increase the ballot size, but I don't think they'll do much more than that. And with Maddux going in next year and others to follow, they won't be in this position again for awhile.
each groups votes weigh 1/3 equally.
It would be a more complicated tabulation process, but completely worth it in my opinion.
Walker, McGriff, and Murphy did better than I expected: 20%.
McGwire, Mattingly, Sosa, Palmeiro still on the ballot.
I don't see it. Biggio goes in next year, even with the logjam.
Has anyone done the math on the ballots yet to figure out how many ballots and how many votes(and votes per ballots) were done?
Edit; 569 ballots cast. 3756 votes cast, 6.6 votes per ballot.
I don't care what one's opinion on PEDs, sabermetrics, or whatever are -- there were worthy candidates on this ballot who ought to meet any reasonable criteria.
Stupid.
I would be very surprised if that would produce substantially different results.
38.8 pitches!
68.2 - 70.1 - new - Biggio
67.7 - 59.3 - 66.7 (+1) - Morris
59.6 - 59.3 - 56.0 (+4) - Bagwell
57.8 - 60.3 - new - Piazza
52.2 - 59.8 - 48.7 (+4) - Raines
47.8 - 38.1 - 50.6 (-3) - Smith
38.8 - 39.2 - new - Schilling
37.6 - 44.3 - new - Clemens
36.2 - 45.4 - new - Bonds
35.9 - 35.6 - 36.5 (-1) - Martinez
33.6 - 37.6 - 36.8 (-3) - Trammell
21.6 - 16.5 - 22.9 (-1) - Walker
20.7 - 20.1 - 23.9 (-3) - McGriff
18.6 - 18.6 - 14.5 (+4) - Murphy
16.9 - 14.4 - 19.5 (-3) - McGwire
13.2 - 8.8 - 17.8 (-4) - Mattingly
12.5 - 13.4 - new - Sosa
8.8 - 12.9 - 12.6 (-4) - Palmeiro
3.3 - 2.1 - 9.6 (-6) - Williams
3.2 - 3.1 - new - Lofton
The small gains for Raines and Bagwell are impressive in the context of a ballot on which more returners lost a few votes. Murphy got the traditional final-year bump. Williams got the traditional second-year collapse for a marginal candidate.
Raines and the (presumed) roiders underperformed their Gizmo projections while Morris and Smith over-performed theirs. We're definitely seeing a small but real bias among published ballots toward the opinions of the BTF majority.
The Gizmo once again missed significantly low on Larry Walker and Don Mattingly. My guess is that a lot of the ghost voters just look up stats in an encyclopedia and vote for Walker based on un-adjusted Coors stats. Hell, I'll take it. (With Mattingly, it's all about the ridiculous percentage of retired BBWAA members who worked in NYC.)
Ugh. We'll see how pleased he is - and perhaps more importantly, how happy all the local businesses in Cooperstown are - with the crowd, or lack of it, at the induction ceremony this year.
Larry Walker? Wouldn't the response from Mattingly fans be "Sure his stats look nice, but take him out of Coors and he's Ray Lankford" or something?
You mean the Hall's president.
Well, Lofton is no gimme -- and Bernie is probably not a Hall of Fame -- but Lofton, at least, I think deserves a lot more than being a one-and-done afterthought discussion.... which is what he turned into.
Why would they? Bernie played with Roger and Andy. They're not mad at certain players, they're blackballing an entire era.
OK, then Trammell.
Put him back on next year's ballot and he gets, what, 1.3 percent. You can give these guys all the looks at Kenny they want, and he's never going to look like a HoFer to them.
The only effect the presence of Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams on future ballots will have is take votes from guys with a chance to get inducted.
The 1996 blank ballot was more understandable. The ballot was nowhere near as strong as the one we just saw.
-- MWE
It'll survive, just like it survived the other seven elections without anyone getting in, and next year there'll be enough inductees to satisfy them. As usual, you seem to conflate your own subjective opinions with the rest of the world's, and then blame the rest of the world for the discrepancy.
Thanks - fixed now.
Agreed. You have people who think that even ignoring roids, that McGwire is not a hofer.
Which makes sense. No point in grandstanding if no one is going to look at you.
Craig Biggio 388 (68.2%) 1
Jack Morris 385 (67.7%) 14
Jeff Bagwell 339 (59.6%) 3
Mike Piazza 329 (57.8%) 1
Tim Raines 297 (52.2%) 6
Lee Smith 272 (47.8%) 11
Curt Schilling 221 (38.8%) 1
Roger Clemens 214 (37.6%) 1
Barry Bonds 206 (36.2%) 1
Edgar Martinez 204 (35.9%) 4
Alan Trammell 191 (33.6%) 12
Larry Walker 123 (21.6%) 3
Fred McGriff 118 (20.7%) 4
Dale Murphy 106 (18.6%) 15
Mark McGwire 96 (16.9%) 7
Don Mattingly 75 (13.2%) 13
Sammy Sosa 71 (12.5%) 1
Rafael Palmeiro 50 (8.8%) 3
Bernie Williams 19 (3.3%) 2
Kenny Lofton 18 (3.2%) 1
Sandy Alomar Jr.16 (2.8%) 1
Julio Franco 6 (1.1%) 1
David Wells 5 (0.9%) 1
Steve Finley 4 (0.7%) 1
Shawn Green 2 (0.4%) 1
Aaron Sele 1 (0.2%) 1
Jeff Cirillo 0 (0%) 1
Royce Clayton 0 (0%) 1
Jeff Conine 0 (0%) 1
Roberto Hernande0 (0%) 1
Ryan Klesko 0 (0%) 1
Jose Mesa 0 (0%) 1
Reggie Sanders 0 (0%) 1
Mike Stanton 0 (0%) 1
Todd Walker 0 (0%) 1
Rondell White 0 (0%) 1
Woody Williams 0 (0%) 1
Some thoughts:
--who's the raving dimwit who wasted a vote on Aaron Sele given the competitiveness of the ballot? And Sandy Alomar, Jr. got 16 votes, just two less than Kenny Lofton?
--too bad Kenny Lofton dropped off on a one-and-done.
--Jack Morris only gained three votes over last year, increasing his % slightly.
--Jeff Bagwell picked up 18 votes and increased his % a little bit.
--Lee Smith lost 18 votes over last year and dropped below 50%.
--Tim Raines picked up 18 votes and got over the 50% margin.
--Don Mattingly lost 27 votes and dropped about 4%.
--Dale Murphy picked up 23 votes in his final year eligible, though his % stayed about the same from last year.
--Most other players from Palmeiro and above lost a few votes but might be seen as more or less holding ground given the tough competition. Was actually thinking Palmeiro might drop off the ballot, but he didn't.
That's the best comment in this entire thread.
That may or may not be the case...but at least it would not all be on the BBWAA
Murphy +4% (If Morris gets that magnitude of a final year bump he's not making it)
Raines +3.5% (Can we focus the protest votes in a positive direction?)
Bagwell +3.5% (thought Biggio would give him a bigger bump)
Morris +1%
Edgar -0.5%
Walker -1%
McGwire -2.5%
LSmith -3%
Trammell -3%
McGriff -3%
Palmeiro -4%
Mattingly -4.5%
BWilliams -6.5%
51.6 - 62.1 - 86.4 - Larkin
49.2 - 61.1 - 76.2 - Sandberg
41.7 - 56.0 - 59.6 - Bagwell
Bagwell started a bit lower, but he didn't see a second surge this year like Larkin and Sandberg did. This is probably partly a factor of the steroid ceiling - some voters are expressly avoiding Bagwell for non-baseball reasons, and partly a factor of the ballotpocalypse.
For another comparison, see Gary Carter. He started right where Bags did, but a minor ballot disaster in his second year (the 1999 Brett/Yount/Ryan/Fisk class) held him back for a year.
42.3 - 33.8 - 49.7 - 64.9 - 72.7 - 78.0 - Carter
I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Bagwell follow something like that path to induction.
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mark McGwire
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
I guess is what I would do. But that leaves all kinds of great people out in the cold.
I still think we ought to have a BTF fundraiser to bribe a Deacon White relative to allow us to author the speech for him/her... think of the fun ("So is this pronounced "chass" or "chase"?).
We could even often silver-gold-platinum levels for donations -- platinum gets your nom de primer inserted somewhere into the speech, gold lets you pick a sportswriter to make fun of, etc...
Neither are irretrievable, since they can still get in on a future date via Veteran's Committee or whatever.
The only problem is that we would actually have to go to Cooperstown.
OTOH it's also true that while Bonds and Clemens are starting very low, this is also, as is being pointed out, a gradual process that still has 14 more years before anything's "final". But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in. I think he's right about that, but it also depends on what he means by "significantly". I think if they jump up to 55% or so next year, that'll be enough to give them momentum and a bit of the bandwagoning effect, but if they're still below 45%, then I can't see anything other than a mass poisoning of the BBWAA annual dinner will ever do them much good.
Turns out I will be in central NY on 7/28. I might just have to do this.
I'm pretty sure we'll see some names (Palmiero, maybe Sosa and McGwire) dropping off of the ballot. Dale Murphy is the only name dropping off for next year, doubt that helps anyone though.
Never is a really long time and all but 14 years is also pretty long. Very very hard for a somewhat changing group of people to hold a grudge that long as we have seen in past HoF voting.
Clemens
Bonds
Piazza
Glavine
Schilling
Mussina
Bagwell
Trammell
Raines
I think that's what I'd do. Frank Thomas can wait. Biggio doesn't make the cut. Neither one needs my vote, they'll do fine with the witch hunters.
+Bernie
59.5 - 64.8 - 63.5 - 72.2 - 76.4
Morris will need more than that, in a tougher context. I'd bet against it.
Sadly, I also think Morris is a practical lock for Vet Committee enshrinement in another five years or so.
I imagine that if I had a vote for next year, that I would take tactical voting pretty seriously. I would of course still vote for the guys who I think are going to go in (Maddux, Biggio, Thomas and maybe Glavine) but with the remaining votes, I would look at voting to keep someone on the ballot (McGwire, Kent etc) or to vote to strengthen a deserving candidate who's induction could be speeded up by a surge(Raines most notably). You wouldn't be locked into voting for the 10 best candidates.
Sounds great. We should see if one of Pigasus's descendant's is available for the occasion. Maybe zonk can check around the Chicago area, where I hear the original Pigaus knocked up half the remaining stockyards population during the 1968 Democratic convention.
You gotta have Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Piazza, Bagwell, Thomas. That's six. You basically also have to have Schilling, Glavine, Mussina, Biggio. That's 10. And no Trammell, Walker, Martinez, McGwire, Palmeiro, Raines. Good freaking God.
I can actually live with the occasional cheerios pee'ers like Chass - disagree with him plenty, but whatever...
It's really the guys who still get ballots - I'm thinking of people like Simmons, who don't even like baseball... guys who get ballots because they covered baseball years and years ago, but probably haven't paid the game any mind in 20 years or more.
It takes 3 Posnanskis or Davidsons to overcome just one of those knuckleheads.
Greg Maddux is a lock for induction. I'd be happy to wager on this with anyone.
And, if you're not as honest as Kurt, there's a damn good chance I won't remember making said wager.
Never is a really long time and all but 14 years is also pretty long. Very very hard for a somewhat changing group of people to hold a grudge that long as we have seen in past HoF voting.
As I said, I think it will depend on how much their total rises next year. Right now they've each barely got half the votes they'll need for induction, and that's a lot of minds to change, especially considering they've already won the votes of most of the "steroids discounters" who voted for them but not McGwire.
glavine and thomas are sure looking like 65-70% about now. piazza will be all about his book i guess. bagwell? who knows. morris? who knows.
i'd say kent is going to debut around 20% and mussina should be about 5-10% ahead of schilling, wherever they end up because that 30-50 range is going to be really fluid next year. kent would be as high as 40% in a less crowded or stigmatized year.
smith, walker, mcgriff, mattingly are all going to drop pretty heavily next year i think. their supporters are not near as hardcore as raffy and sosa's, or the other candidates like trammell and raines. i think all those guys could fall off except smith. martinez may even be in jeopardy, but i think he'll stay on.
next year there are some really quality players who are certain not to hit 5% too. luis gonzalez, nomo, foulke. gagne, matt morris, durham. all those guys won't make it past year 1.
I don't see this as him promising no changes. He said they are pleased with the BBWAA's role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide. He doesn't say they won't change the criteria.
Now, they may _not_ change, but I don't see this as him saying much of anything. What else was he supposed to say? "The writers are twits"?
I think that the viewpoint is right, but it's a wrong comparison. Raines is a poor man's Rickey Henderson, corner outfielder, good obp, decent power, average(at best) defensively. Lofton is a gold glove caliber centerfielder, it's not really fair to compare him to Raines and Rickey, just because he also led off.
I know that people see him as you pointed out, but it's an incorrect comparison.
But even you would admit, Andy, that this shutout is different from past shutouts.
Sadly, Pigasus was devoured as a mid-morning ham sandwich by J. when McGovern tossed him out of the '72 convention...
I disagree. I don't see him as one of the 10 best players available.
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