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Wednesday, January 09, 2013

BBWAA.com: No Players Elected for First Time Since 1996

Nobody. Not one. Ugh. Click the link to see the results.

A winning candidate did not emerge from the Hall of Fame balloting conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and verified by Ernst & Young. There were 569 ballots cast, the third highest total in the history of the voting, but none of the 37 candidates in the 2013 vote gained mention on the required 75 percent for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Craig Biggio, who totaled 3,060 hits and was a seven-time All-Star while playing three positions (catcher, second base, outfield), topped the ballot with 388 votes – 39 shy of the 427 needed for election. His total reflected 68.2 percent of the electorate, which consists of BBWAA members with 10 or more consecutive years of Major League Baseball coverage. Five blank ballots were among those submitted. Other players named on more than half the ballots were pitcher Jack Morris with 385 (67.7 percent), first baseman Jeff Bagwell with 339 (59.6), catcher Mike Piazza with 329 (57.8) and outfielder Tim Raines with 297 (52.2).

 

Jim Furtado Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:00 PM | 453 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, idiocy

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   1. thetailor Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4343115)
I like the idiocy tag. What a joke.
   2. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4343120)
Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams off the ballot now. FAIL.
   3. Mark Armour Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:05 PM (#4343124)
So maybe everyone can write and talk about baseball now, rather than this "who-is-better-than-whom" nonsense?
   4. Bruce Markusen Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4343129)
Amen, Mark.
   5. thetailor Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4343133)
Cross posted from the Gizmo:

Biggio -2, Piazza -2.5, Raines -7, Bagwell even, Morris +8

Unbelievable.
   6. AROM Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:07 PM (#4343135)
Bernie?

Shooty, would you have found space to vote for him on a 10 player ballot? I know I couldn't, not on one as stacked as this.
   7. Blastin Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:07 PM (#4343137)
This is dumb. Can it be March now? Ugh. And people are sitting around happy for screwing over many, many deserving people.
   8. sunnyday2 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4343143)
Congrats are in order to the BBWAA. They got what they wanted.

The Hall of Fame? Not so much.

Hopefully something good can come of this, which would be relieving the BBWAA of a right and a privilege for which it has no appreciation in any sense of the word.
   9. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4343147)
Shooty, would you have found space to vote for him on a 10 player ballot? I know I couldn't, not on one as stacked as this.

Plenty of ballots didn't go to 10 names. The steroids haters could have easily found room on their ballots for Lofton or Williams. The blank ballot morons did no one any favors.
   10. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:09 PM (#4343149)
Disgraceful.
   11. JJ1986 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:09 PM (#4343150)
How does Biggio do so much better than Piazza/Bagwell?
   12. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:09 PM (#4343151)
What a load of crap...
   13. winnipegwhip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4343154)
Good summer to plan a trip to Cooperstown if you don't like crowds or plan to make reservations.
   14. Danny Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4343155)
The good news is that Morris barely inched ahead (66.6% to 67.7%) and appears very unlikely to make it next year.

The bad news is that Maddux, Thomas, Mussina and Glavine (and Jeff Kent) are joining the logjam.
   15. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4343156)
Fuck you, BBWAA!
   16. slothinator Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4343157)
How does Biggio do so much better than Piazza/Bagwell?


Because all of the writers think Biggio is "clean", and think (assume) Piazza/Bagwell are "dirty".
   17. Depressoteric feels Royally blue these days Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4343158)
Pretty sad, all around.
   18. SOLockwood Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4343159)
How does Biggio do so much better than Piazza/Bagwell?


He wasn't a home run hitter, therefore he couldn't have been a roider /sarc

Coke to slothinator
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4343161)
How does Biggio do so much better than Piazza/Bagwell?


Hints of roids, non-power hitter, harder to measure skills(such as defense) etc.

   20. bachslunch Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4343162)
The BBHoF deserves this. In spades.

Ridiculous.
   21. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4343164)
Presumably all of these players will have lower vote percentages last year. I still think at least one person will get in next year, but then again I thought exactly one would get in this year.
   22. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4343165)
We remain pleased with their role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide.”


My, what low standards you have!
   23. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4343166)
Predictions on whether/how the HOF will respond? This looks utterly silly for the institution.
   24. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:12 PM (#4343167)
The good news is that Morris barely inched ahead (66.6% to 67.7%) and appears very unlikely to make it next year.


I'm to the point that I would have been happy to see both Morris and Biggio go in, reducing the logjam somewhat.
   25. Fanshawe Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4343170)
How does Biggio do so much better than Piazza/Bagwell?


Bacne forearms mumble mumble.
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4343172)
Well, I clicked on the link and among other things I learned that the HoF induction this year will include honoring those who were elected during WWII and who due to "wartime restrictions" never received a formal recognition. This includes Lou Gehrig and Rogers Hornsby. Good to know it took 70 years to decide they should get such an honor.

They will also be honoring THE ENTIRE CLASS OF 1945. Good to know that after 70 years they don't know any better than to sweep this group under the rug.
   27. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:13 PM (#4343173)
Predictions on whether/how the HOF will respond? This looks utterly silly for the institution.

Something banal and supportive of the process. Don't expect much.
   28. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4343174)
Predictions on whether/how the HOF will respond? This looks utterly silly for the institution.


Not much. They may increase the ballot size, but I don't think they'll do much more than that. And with Maddux going in next year and others to follow, they won't be in this position again for awhile.

   29. shoewizard Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4343177)
Why can't the HOF overhaul the entire system. Just use a weighted vote, with a combination of writers, baseball executives and/or coaches, and fans.

each groups votes weigh 1/3 equally.

It would be a more complicated tabulation process, but completely worth it in my opinion.
   30. thetailor Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:15 PM (#4343178)
Can somebody check to see what the "bounce" is for a player between year one and two? I think a lot of the non-Piazza votes are guys who wanted to keep him out on the first ballot.
   31. crict Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4343180)
Lofton only got 2 more votes than Sandy Alomar Jr. Aaron Sele got a vote.
   32. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4343181)
Clemens and Bonds were lower than I'd thought: 37%. They were polling at 47%, I believe. And I predicted before the gizmo that they would get 45-55%.

Walker, McGriff, and Murphy did better than I expected: 20%.

McGwire, Mattingly, Sosa, Palmeiro still on the ballot.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4343182)
Presumably all of these players will have lower vote percentages last year. I still think at least one person will get in next year, but then again I thought exactly one would get in this year.


I don't see it. Biggio goes in next year, even with the logjam.

Has anyone done the math on the ballots yet to figure out how many ballots and how many votes(and votes per ballots) were done?

Edit; 569 ballots cast. 3756 votes cast, 6.6 votes per ballot.
   34. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4343183)
Just stupid...

I don't care what one's opinion on PEDs, sabermetrics, or whatever are -- there were worthy candidates on this ballot who ought to meet any reasonable criteria.

Stupid.

   35. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4343184)
Are they still going to have that special TV show with interviews with the inductees? Is Shirley MacLaine available?
   36. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4343185)
No irretrievable mistakes, at least.
   37. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:17 PM (#4343186)
This "not good enough for a first-ballot" bullshit is tiresome.
   38. sunnyday2 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:17 PM (#4343187)
In the St. Paul newspaper the voter (forget the name) wrote a big spread last Sunday about all of this. Noted that Bagwell and Piazza were rumored to have used steriods. There can be no doubt that such "rumors" kept enough BBWAA nazis from voting for these 2 guys to keep 'em out.
   39. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:17 PM (#4343188)

Why can't the HOF overhaul the entire system. Just use a weighted vote, with a combination of writers, baseball executives and/or coaches, and fans.


I would be very surprised if that would produce substantially different results.
   40. LargeBill Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4343191)
I've been listening to the MLB network in the background and can't believe the level of stupidity they are spouting. You've got Harold Reynolds summing up the reason for supporting Morris "Throw out the numbers, he's a Hall of Famer." Al Leiter at least had the sense to come back with something like "Throw out the numbers? Huh, if you throw out the numbers you're a Hall of Famer and so am I. The number have to mean something." Sadly, he turned around and ruined it by giving credence to pitch to the score crap. Dumber than those two is Bob Costas and the nonsense he is spouting as fact. A few weeks ago when Costas said stupid crap during Sunday Night Football many said he should stick to sports. Well, hearing him speak about baseball I'm going to do a 180 and say he should stick to talking about gun control. To top it off they follow up by bring on one of the dumber voters Jon Heyman and he acts astonished that Morris wasn't elected. Heyman is so dense he doesn't realize it was Morris supporters like him that hurt Morris' case by voting against a far better pitcher in Blyleven. If Blyleven went in a couple years earlier Morris may have gotten in.
   41. The District Attorney Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4343192)
Guys, let's not get discouraged, just do our part, and work really hard to find people related to Deacon White.

38.8 - 39.2 - new - Schilling
38.8 pitches!
   42. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4343194)
Data. The numbers go: Vote % in 2013 / Gizmo Vote % / Vote % in 2012.

68.2 - 70.1 - new - Biggio
67.7 - 59.3 - 66.7 (+1) - Morris
59.6 - 59.3 - 56.0 (+4) - Bagwell
57.8 - 60.3 - new - Piazza
52.2 - 59.8 - 48.7 (+4) - Raines
47.8 - 38.1 - 50.6 (-3) - Smith
38.8 - 39.2 - new - Schilling
37.6 - 44.3 - new - Clemens
36.2 - 45.4 - new - Bonds
35.9 - 35.6 - 36.5 (-1) - Martinez
33.6 - 37.6 - 36.8 (-3) - Trammell
21.6 - 16.5 - 22.9 (-1) - Walker
20.7 - 20.1 - 23.9 (-3) - McGriff
18.6 - 18.6 - 14.5 (+4) - Murphy
16.9 - 14.4 - 19.5 (-3) - McGwire
13.2 - 8.8 - 17.8 (-4) - Mattingly
12.5 - 13.4 - new - Sosa
8.8 - 12.9 - 12.6 (-4) - Palmeiro
3.3 - 2.1 - 9.6 (-6) - Williams
3.2 - 3.1 - new - Lofton

The small gains for Raines and Bagwell are impressive in the context of a ballot on which more returners lost a few votes. Murphy got the traditional final-year bump. Williams got the traditional second-year collapse for a marginal candidate.

Raines and the (presumed) roiders underperformed their Gizmo projections while Morris and Smith over-performed theirs. We're definitely seeing a small but real bias among published ballots toward the opinions of the BTF majority.

The Gizmo once again missed significantly low on Larry Walker and Don Mattingly. My guess is that a lot of the ghost voters just look up stats in an encyclopedia and vote for Walker based on un-adjusted Coors stats. Hell, I'll take it. (With Mattingly, it's all about the ridiculous percentage of retired BBWAA members who worked in NYC.)
   43. ColonelTom Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4343196)
My first reaction was, "Good - maybe now the BBWAA will reconsider the role of sportswriters in the election process." Then I read this from the Hall of Fame's president, Jeff Idelson:

"We remain pleased with their role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide.”


Ugh. We'll see how pleased he is - and perhaps more importantly, how happy all the local businesses in Cooperstown are - with the crowd, or lack of it, at the induction ceremony this year.
   44. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:21 PM (#4343198)
Surprised to see that Larry Walker joins Mattingly, Morris and Lee Smith among those with disproportionate support from the old farts who don't publicize their ballots.

Larry Walker? Wouldn't the response from Mattingly fans be "Sure his stats look nice, but take him out of Coors and he's Ray Lankford" or something?
   45. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4343202)
Then I read this from the BBWAA's president, Jeff Idelson:


You mean the Hall's president.

   46. DA Baracus Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4343203)
Was there any change to the voting process after no one was elected in 96?
   47. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4343205)
No irretrievable mistakes, at least.


Well, Lofton is no gimme -- and Bernie is probably not a Hall of Fame -- but Lofton, at least, I think deserves a lot more than being a one-and-done afterthought discussion.... which is what he turned into.

   48. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4343207)
The steroids haters could have easily found room on their ballots for Lofton or Williams.


Why would they? Bernie played with Roger and Andy. They're not mad at certain players, they're blackballing an entire era.
   49. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4343208)
Larry Walker? Wouldn't the response from Mattingly fans be "Sure his stats look nice, but take him out of Coors and he's Ray Lankford" or something?
Just repeating myself, but this presumes that the ghost voters (a) know what a park factor is, (b) remember that Larry Walker played in Colorado, and (c) put (a) and (b) together.
   50. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4343209)
The steroids haters could have easily found room on their ballots for Lofton or Williams.



Why would they? Bernie played with Roger and Andy. They're not mad at certain players, they're blackballing an entire era.


OK, then Trammell.
   51. MelOtt4 Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:25 PM (#4343211)
I don't think Bagwell is being kept out only because steroid suspicions. He did not have a long career, and did not hit any career milestones. We all think that's asinine reasoning but baseball card numbers matter to voters.
   52. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4343213)
Well, Lofton is no gimme -- and Bernie is probably not a Hall of Fame -- but Lofton, at least, I think deserves a lot more than being a one-and-done afterthought discussion.... which is what he turned into.


Put him back on next year's ballot and he gets, what, 1.3 percent. You can give these guys all the looks at Kenny they want, and he's never going to look like a HoFer to them.

The only effect the presence of Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams on future ballots will have is take votes from guys with a chance to get inducted.
   53. AROM Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4343215)
Was there any change to the voting process after no one was elected in 96?


The 1996 blank ballot was more understandable. The ballot was nowhere near as strong as the one we just saw.
   54. Don Malcolm Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4343218)
A shame, but not the end of the world. A small silver lining in the announced vote result is the fact that there were only five blank ballots submitted. We saw all of those as part of the Gizmo, so there was no "silent minority" out there depriving anyone of admission. While I still think it would be good to close the loophole, we were at least spared from a widespread demonstration of meta-moralism.
   55. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:30 PM (#4343222)
   56. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:30 PM (#4343224)
Predictions on whether/how the HOF will respond?

It'll survive, just like it survived the other seven elections without anyone getting in, and next year there'll be enough inductees to satisfy them. As usual, you seem to conflate your own subjective opinions with the rest of the world's, and then blame the rest of the world for the discrepancy.
   57. ColonelTom Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:30 PM (#4343225)
You mean the Hall's president.


Thanks - fixed now.
   58. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:31 PM (#4343228)
I don't think Bagwell is being kept out only because steroid suspicions. He did not have a long career, and did not hit any career milestones. We all think that's asinine reasoning but baseball card numbers matter to voters.


Agreed. You have people who think that even ignoring roids, that McGwire is not a hofer.


   59. Fanshawe Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:31 PM (#4343230)
A small silver lining in the announced vote result is the fact that there were only five blank ballot submitted. We saw all of those as part of the Gizmo, so there was no "silent minority" out there depriving anyone of admission.


Which makes sense. No point in grandstanding if no one is going to look at you.
   60. Kurt Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:32 PM (#4343233)
SoSH, I owe you a bb-r sponsorship (see post #111). Name your player (up to $20) and the message, and I'll get it done.
   61. bachslunch Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:32 PM (#4343236)
Voting breakdown. Indicates votes received, percentage, and years on ballot:

Craig Biggio 388 (68.2%) 1
Jack Morris 385 (67.7%) 14
Jeff Bagwell 339 (59.6%) 3
Mike Piazza 329 (57.8%) 1
Tim Raines 297 (52.2%) 6
Lee Smith 272 (47.8%) 11
Curt Schilling 221 (38.8%) 1
Roger Clemens 214 (37.6%) 1
Barry Bonds 206 (36.2%) 1
Edgar Martinez 204 (35.9%) 4
Alan Trammell 191 (33.6%) 12
Larry Walker 123 (21.6%) 3
Fred McGriff 118 (20.7%) 4
Dale Murphy 106 (18.6%) 15
Mark McGwire 96 (16.9%) 7
Don Mattingly 75 (13.2%) 13
Sammy Sosa 71 (12.5%) 1
Rafael Palmeiro 50 (8.8%) 3
Bernie Williams 19 (3.3%) 2
Kenny Lofton 18 (3.2%) 1
Sandy Alomar Jr.16 (2.8%) 1
Julio Franco 6 (1.1%) 1
David Wells 5 (0.9%) 1
Steve Finley 4 (0.7%) 1
Shawn Green 2 (0.4%) 1
Aaron Sele 1 (0.2%) 1
Jeff Cirillo 0 (0%) 1
Royce Clayton 0 (0%) 1
Jeff Conine 0 (0%) 1
Roberto Hernande0 (0%) 1
Ryan Klesko 0 (0%) 1
Jose Mesa 0 (0%) 1
Reggie Sanders 0 (0%) 1
Mike Stanton 0 (0%) 1
Todd Walker 0 (0%) 1
Rondell White 0 (0%) 1
Woody Williams 0 (0%) 1

Some thoughts:

--who's the raving dimwit who wasted a vote on Aaron Sele given the competitiveness of the ballot? And Sandy Alomar, Jr. got 16 votes, just two less than Kenny Lofton?
--too bad Kenny Lofton dropped off on a one-and-done.
--Jack Morris only gained three votes over last year, increasing his % slightly.
--Jeff Bagwell picked up 18 votes and increased his % a little bit.
--Lee Smith lost 18 votes over last year and dropped below 50%.
--Tim Raines picked up 18 votes and got over the 50% margin.
--Don Mattingly lost 27 votes and dropped about 4%.
--Dale Murphy picked up 23 votes in his final year eligible, though his % stayed about the same from last year.
--Most other players from Palmeiro and above lost a few votes but might be seen as more or less holding ground given the tough competition. Was actually thinking Palmeiro might drop off the ballot, but he didn't.
   62. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4343238)
Are they still going to have that special TV show with interviews with the inductees? Is Shirley MacLaine available?

That's the best comment in this entire thread.
   63. shoewizard Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4343239)
I would be very surprised if that would produce substantially different results.


That may or may not be the case...but at least it would not all be on the BBWAA
   64. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:33 PM (#4343240)
Time to bring back the run-off election.
   65. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4343241)
YTY movement

Murphy +4% (If Morris gets that magnitude of a final year bump he's not making it)
Raines +3.5% (Can we focus the protest votes in a positive direction?)
Bagwell +3.5% (thought Biggio would give him a bigger bump)
Morris +1%
Edgar -0.5%
Walker -1%
McGwire -2.5%
LSmith -3%
Trammell -3%
McGriff -3%
Palmeiro -4%
Mattingly -4.5%
BWilliams -6.5%
   66. Guapo Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4343243)
All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people as we can to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.
   67. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4343244)
I don't think Bagwell is being kept out only because steroid suspicions. He did not have a long career, and did not hit any career milestones. We all think that's asinine reasoning but baseball card numbers matter to voters.
Bagwell's vote has improved every year he's been on the ballot. Compare Bagwell and other recent deserving but milestone-low Hall of Famers.

51.6 - 62.1 - 86.4 - Larkin
49.2 - 61.1 - 76.2 - Sandberg
41.7 - 56.0 - 59.6 - Bagwell

Bagwell started a bit lower, but he didn't see a second surge this year like Larkin and Sandberg did. This is probably partly a factor of the steroid ceiling - some voters are expressly avoiding Bagwell for non-baseball reasons, and partly a factor of the ballotpocalypse.

For another comparison, see Gary Carter. He started right where Bags did, but a minor ballot disaster in his second year (the 1999 Brett/Yount/Ryan/Fisk class) held him back for a year.

42.3 - 33.8 - 49.7 - 64.9 - 72.7 - 78.0 - Carter

I wouldn't be particularly surprised to see Bagwell follow something like that path to induction.
   68. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:34 PM (#4343245)
The only silver lining I see is that Tim Raines looks pretty solid -- 9 years left and he seem to well and safely past 50%.
   69. Bourbon Samurai Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:37 PM (#4343250)
What on earth to do next year?

Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mark McGwire
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell

I guess is what I would do. But that leaves all kinds of great people out in the cold.
   70. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4343251)
All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.


I still think we ought to have a BTF fundraiser to bribe a Deacon White relative to allow us to author the speech for him/her... think of the fun ("So is this pronounced "chass" or "chase"?).

We could even often silver-gold-platinum levels for donations -- platinum gets your nom de primer inserted somewhere into the speech, gold lets you pick a sportswriter to make fun of, etc...
   71. Bourbon Samurai Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4343254)
66 is kind of a great idea if we tipped some SABR friendly journalists ahead of time.
   72. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4343256)

Well, Lofton is no gimme -- and Bernie is probably not a Hall of Fame -- but Lofton, at least, I think deserves a lot more than being a one-and-done afterthought discussion.... which is what he turned into.


Neither are irretrievable, since they can still get in on a future date via Veteran's Committee or whatever.
   73. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:40 PM (#4343260)
Nice job BWAA, I assume you are going to return all the paychecks and royalties accumulated for all the articles and books written about how 1998 "saved" baseball too.
   74. McCoy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:42 PM (#4343265)
66 is kind of a great idea if we tipped some SABR friendly journalists ahead of time

The only problem is that we would actually have to go to Cooperstown.
   75. The District Attorney Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:43 PM (#4343266)
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Mark McGwire
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
I guess the silver lining of such a ludicrous ballot is that the decisions are more interesting. Was Tom Glavine better than Alan Trammell? Was Tim Raines better than Jeff Bagwell? Damned if I know, but it sounds like more fun to figure out that kind of stuff than it is to just check yes/no on each person.
   76. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:43 PM (#4343268)
Costas is absolutely right in stating that we're going to have to wait a year to see what Bonds's and Clemens's real chances are. Right now they both start with about, what, 12% or 13% more than McGwire did, or about 20% more than he has now. That 20% difference suggests the hardcore of "steroids discounters", while the other 63%-64% represent the "steroid blackballers".

OTOH it's also true that while Bonds and Clemens are starting very low, this is also, as is being pointed out, a gradual process that still has 14 more years before anything's "final". But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in. I think he's right about that, but it also depends on what he means by "significantly". I think if they jump up to 55% or so next year, that'll be enough to give them momentum and a bit of the bandwagoning effect, but if they're still below 45%, then I can't see anything other than a mass poisoning of the BBWAA annual dinner will ever do them much good.
   77. McCoy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:44 PM (#4343269)
At this point I'm amused zt the Greg Maddux is a lock for induction so no worries folks type thinking. He very well could end up with something like 72% of the vote and no one gets inducted again.
   78. Anonymous Observer Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:44 PM (#4343271)
How big of a final year bump did Rice get?
   79. AROM Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4343272)
All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.


Turns out I will be in central NY on 7/28. I might just have to do this.
   80. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:45 PM (#4343273)
What on earth to do next year?


I'm pretty sure we'll see some names (Palmiero, maybe Sosa and McGwire) dropping off of the ballot. Dale Murphy is the only name dropping off for next year, doubt that helps anyone though.
   81. McCoy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:46 PM (#4343276)
But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in.

Never is a really long time and all but 14 years is also pretty long. Very very hard for a somewhat changing group of people to hold a grudge that long as we have seen in past HoF voting.
   82. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:46 PM (#4343278)
Maddux
Clemens
Bonds
Piazza
Glavine
Schilling
Mussina
Bagwell
Trammell
Raines

I think that's what I'd do. Frank Thomas can wait. Biggio doesn't make the cut. Neither one needs my vote, they'll do fine with the witch hunters.
   83. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4343280)
Dale Murphy is the only name dropping off for next year


+Bernie
   84. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:48 PM (#4343281)
How big of a final year bump did Rice get?
Four percentage points. (Same as Murphy this year.) Rice's last five ballots:

59.5 - 64.8 - 63.5 - 72.2 - 76.4

Morris will need more than that, in a tougher context. I'd bet against it.

Sadly, I also think Morris is a practical lock for Vet Committee enshrinement in another five years or so.
   85. McCoy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:49 PM (#4343284)
The SABR convention in 2013 will kick off on the 31st of July in Philadelphia while the HoF Induction is on the 28th. So really if anyone was planning to travel to Philly for SABR they might as well take a trip up to Cooperstown.
   86. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:49 PM (#4343286)
I guess the silver lining of such a ludicrous ballot is that the decisions are more interesting. Was Tom Glavine better than Alan Trammell? Was Tim Raines better than Jeff Bagwell? Damned if I know, but it sounds like more fun to figure out that kind of stuff than it is to just check yes/no on each person.


I imagine that if I had a vote for next year, that I would take tactical voting pretty seriously. I would of course still vote for the guys who I think are going to go in (Maddux, Biggio, Thomas and maybe Glavine) but with the remaining votes, I would look at voting to keep someone on the ballot (McGwire, Kent etc) or to vote to strengthen a deserving candidate who's induction could be speeded up by a surge(Raines most notably). You wouldn't be locked into voting for the 10 best candidates.
   87. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:49 PM (#4343287)
All right people- I'm calling it. SABRPALOOZA 2013 at Cooperstown, Induction Weekend. We get as many people to go up there, crash Deacon White's induction ceremony, and protest the BBWAA's handling of the Hall of Fame voting and demand reform. It's a massive publicity opportunity because the media will have nothing else to cover.

Sounds great. We should see if one of Pigasus's descendant's is available for the occasion. Maybe zonk can check around the Chicago area, where I hear the original Pigaus knocked up half the remaining stockyards population during the 1968 Democratic convention.
   88. homerwannabee Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:50 PM (#4343289)
I think this was Kenny Lofton's major problem. He basically is a poor man's Tim Raines, and Tim Raines is still not in the HOF. Of course I think Tim Raines should be in the Hall, but he gets the poor man's Rickey Henderson argument despite the fact the argument is like saying Albert Pujol's is a poor man's Babe Ruth.
   89. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4343290)
Jesus, that is going to be a crazy ballot. First draft...

You gotta have Clemens, Bonds, Maddux, Piazza, Bagwell, Thomas. That's six. You basically also have to have Schilling, Glavine, Mussina, Biggio. That's 10. And no Trammell, Walker, Martinez, McGwire, Palmeiro, Raines. Good freaking God.
   90. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4343291)
The real reform the BBWAA is to simply have more stringent requirements for who gets to vote --

I can actually live with the occasional cheerios pee'ers like Chass - disagree with him plenty, but whatever...

It's really the guys who still get ballots - I'm thinking of people like Simmons, who don't even like baseball... guys who get ballots because they covered baseball years and years ago, but probably haven't paid the game any mind in 20 years or more.

It takes 3 Posnanskis or Davidsons to overcome just one of those knuckleheads.
   91. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:52 PM (#4343292)
At this point I'm amused zt the Greg Maddux is a lock for induction so no worries folks type thinking. He very well could end up with something like 72% of the vote and no one gets inducted again.


Greg Maddux is a lock for induction. I'd be happy to wager on this with anyone.

And, if you're not as honest as Kurt, there's a damn good chance I won't remember making said wager.

   92. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4343293)
But Costas also made the point that if Bonds and Clemens don't rise significantly next year, it may be that they're never going to get in.

Never is a really long time and all but 14 years is also pretty long. Very very hard for a somewhat changing group of people to hold a grudge that long as we have seen in past HoF voting.


As I said, I think it will depend on how much their total rises next year. Right now they've each barely got half the votes they'll need for induction, and that's a lot of minds to change, especially considering they've already won the votes of most of the "steroids discounters" who voted for them but not McGwire.
   93. jdennis Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4343294)
maddux and biggio next year? i do think biggio will get an increase. i think he got a lot of "not a first ballot guy" denials. maddux will still get in. i would think it would be a 98% vote but given this it might be less.

glavine and thomas are sure looking like 65-70% about now. piazza will be all about his book i guess. bagwell? who knows. morris? who knows.

i'd say kent is going to debut around 20% and mussina should be about 5-10% ahead of schilling, wherever they end up because that 30-50 range is going to be really fluid next year. kent would be as high as 40% in a less crowded or stigmatized year.

smith, walker, mcgriff, mattingly are all going to drop pretty heavily next year i think. their supporters are not near as hardcore as raffy and sosa's, or the other candidates like trammell and raines. i think all those guys could fall off except smith. martinez may even be in jeopardy, but i think he'll stay on.

next year there are some really quality players who are certain not to hit 5% too. luis gonzalez, nomo, foulke. gagne, matt morris, durham. all those guys won't make it past year 1.

   94. NattyBoh Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4343295)
Great listening to WFAN and WEPN in New York. And there are still people talking about the Jets coaching staff and GM openings.
   95. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:54 PM (#4343297)
"We remain pleased with their role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide.”


Ugh. We'll see how pleased he is - and perhaps more importantly, how happy all the local businesses in Cooperstown are - with the crowd, or lack of it, at the induction ceremony this year.


I don't see this as him promising no changes. He said they are pleased with the BBWAA's role in evaluating candidates based on the criteria we provide. He doesn't say they won't change the criteria.

Now, they may _not_ change, but I don't see this as him saying much of anything. What else was he supposed to say? "The writers are twits"?
   96. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:54 PM (#4343300)
Noting I really screwed the 80s guys. I wonder if you need to adjust for the greater variance in performance in the sillyball era. I'll definitely need to consider Trammell and Raines against Mussina and Biggio. I don't see much likelihood they can beat out Schilling or Glavine.
   97. cardsfanboy Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:55 PM (#4343302)
I think this was Kenny Lofton's major problem. He basically is a poor man's Tim Raines, and Tim Raines is still not in the HOF. Of course I think Tim Raines should be in the Hall, but he gets the poor man's Rickey Henderson argument despite the fact the argument is like saying Albert Pujol's is a poor man's Babe Ruth.


I think that the viewpoint is right, but it's a wrong comparison. Raines is a poor man's Rickey Henderson, corner outfielder, good obp, decent power, average(at best) defensively. Lofton is a gold glove caliber centerfielder, it's not really fair to compare him to Raines and Rickey, just because he also led off.

I know that people see him as you pointed out, but it's an incorrect comparison.
   98. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:55 PM (#4343304)
It'll survive, just like it survived the other seven elections without anyone getting in,


But even you would admit, Andy, that this shutout is different from past shutouts.
   99. zonk Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:55 PM (#4343305)
Sounds great. We should see if one of Pigasus's descendant's is available for the occasion. Maybe zonk can check around the Chicago area, where I hear the original Pigaus knocked up half the remaining stockyards population during the 1968 Democratic convention.


Sadly, Pigasus was devoured as a mid-morning ham sandwich by J. when McGovern tossed him out of the '72 convention...
   100. DL from MN Posted: January 09, 2013 at 02:56 PM (#4343307)
You gotta have... Biggio


I disagree. I don't see him as one of the 10 best players available.
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