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Wednesday, January 09, 2013

BBWAA.com: No Players Elected for First Time Since 1996

Nobody. Not one. Ugh. Click the link to see the results.

A winning candidate did not emerge from the Hall of Fame balloting conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America and verified by Ernst & Young. There were 569 ballots cast, the third highest total in the history of the voting, but none of the 37 candidates in the 2013 vote gained mention on the required 75 percent for election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Craig Biggio, who totaled 3,060 hits and was a seven-time All-Star while playing three positions (catcher, second base, outfield), topped the ballot with 388 votes – 39 shy of the 427 needed for election. His total reflected 68.2 percent of the electorate, which consists of BBWAA members with 10 or more consecutive years of Major League Baseball coverage. Five blank ballots were among those submitted. Other players named on more than half the ballots were pitcher Jack Morris with 385 (67.7 percent), first baseman Jeff Bagwell with 339 (59.6), catcher Mike Piazza with 329 (57.8) and outfielder Tim Raines with 297 (52.2).

 

Jim Furtado Posted: January 09, 2013 at 03:00 PM | 453 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, idiocy

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   401. cardsfanboy Posted: January 10, 2013 at 02:43 PM (#4344282)
His career was a disappointment compared to expectations.


We are obviously remembering two different guys. Griffey was the biggest name in the game for a decade, his Cincy years never happened. I don't think anyone cares about his Cincy years for his hof. He was called a future hofer from the day he stepped onto the major league diamond, and for his first 12 years, he cemented his case. Cincy never happened, I don't know of anyone who follows baseball who thinks Griffey's Cincy years has anything to do with his candidacy(other than allowing him to get a few career milestones)

Griffey was bigger than Clemens, Thomas, Maddux, Bo Jackson and Bonds combined. I think it was a requirement that writers had to preface his name with future hofer, starting his second year in the bigs. It's impossible to overstate how big Griffey was, and then you look at the voters, who are guys who, generally speaking are going to be 50-80 years old when he comes on the ballot. They aren't going to pay attention to his Cincy years. It's the player of the 90's Griffey they are going to remember.

Then you are going to have the young whippersnappers with their fancy numbers and they'll point out how much of a lock he is (note...we aren't talking about the retarded young whippersnappers that are going to look at his career war...those people are too stupid to be listen to, but the rational ones, who will point out 73 war in 12 seasons...Everything after that is unimportant)

Add in the narrative of the clean player(which whether it's true or not, doesn't matter, it's going to go that way) of the two way elite on both sides player who broke his wrist catching a flyball.. who's love of the game was obvious.... Seriously if Griffey doesn't sail in with over 90% then the system is beyond broken.
   402. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 10, 2013 at 02:50 PM (#4344289)
Griffey's Cincy years began when he had just turned 30! It's impressive that he had a no-doubt Hall of Fame career before that point, but I am guessing it takes him out of the "first-ballot" category for lots of people. Maybe I'm wrong.
   403. cardsfanboy Posted: January 10, 2013 at 03:04 PM (#4344305)
Griffey's Cincy years began when he had just turned 30! It's impressive that he had a no-doubt Hall of Fame career before that point, but I am guessing it takes him out of the "first-ballot" category for lots of people. Maybe I'm wrong


I did include his Cincy year in my 12 year 73 war comment, he posted a 5.2 war his first year in Cincy. Of course his career takes a couple of hits in his early going, a strike shortened year, and a broken wrist year. Still if you take his first 10 full seasons, he has 60 war(and again that is with 111 game strike shortened year, and a 72 game broken wrist year).. the names of players who put together 10 year stretches with 60 war are going to be all hofers. (or held out because of suspicion)

List of players who put up 60 war in their first ten years.
Rk             Player WAR/pos OPS+    G   PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO GDP  SB   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
                                                                                                                   
1        Ted Williams    81.7  190 1421 6436 5086 1273 1763 366  61 323 1261 1327  442 121  20 .347 .484 .633 1.117
2       Albert Pujols    78.8  172 1558 6782 5733 1186 1900 426  15 408 1230  914  646 203  75 .331 .426 .624 1.050
3      Rogers Hornsby    74.2  180 1262 5410 4767  851 1713 286 128 141  815  504      396 109 .359 .424 .562  .986
4         Willie Mays    74.1  158 1372 5960 5241 1013 1657 265  94 319  935  647  582 118 222 .316 .390 .585  .975
5         Stan Musial    71.9  172 1370 6076 5266 1044 1829 373 127 206  923  750  275  99  53 .347 .431 .584 1.015
6         Barry Bonds    71.6  159 1425 6038 5020  999 1436 306  48 292  864  931  795  71 340 .286 .398 .541  .938
7       Mickey Mantle    71.5  172 1399 6051 5005 1113 1537 225  60 320  935 1003 1024  55 112 .307 .422 .568  .990
8          Hank Aaron    70.6  158 1511 6582 5940 1077 1898 321  77 342 1121  541  609 156 103 .320 .375 .572  .947
9          Wade Boggs    68.5  146 1482 6725 5699 1005 1965 400  43  78  637  930  439 153  15 .345 .435 .471  .906
10            Ty Cobb    66.2  182 1241 5254 4690  877 1727 270 136  49  808  401      376 488 .368 .423 .515  .938
11      Eddie Mathews    65.5  154 1482 6481 5466 1032 1548 223  55 370  992  930  886  72  55 .283 .387 .547  .934
12       Mike Schmidt    65.0  149 1336 5592 4615  856 1216 227  41 314  878  851 1148  68 141 .263 .380 .535  .914
13          Babe Ruth    64.7  218  947 3832 3036  782 1051 231  76 238  768  739      518  63 .346 .477 .708 1.184
14        Ken Griffey    63.3  150 1375 5982 5226  940 1569 294  27 350 1018  656  876 101 143 .300 .379 .568  .947
15       Joe DiMaggio    63.0  157 1405 6256 5609 1146 1853 320 111 303 1277  594  282  89  30 .330 .398 .589  .987
16         Lou Gehrig    63.0  182 1232 5472 4542 1075 1558 321 113 267 1146  806      508  63 .343 .444 .640 1.084
17        Johnny Mize    62.4  168 1402 5954 5185  960 1679 313  82 297 1096  714  423  76  26 .324 .409 .588  .997
18      Eddie Collins    62.1  160 1168 4974 4137  820 1394 179  94  19  551  591      277 413 .337 .426 .439  .865
19       Arky Vaughan    61.7  141 1411 6182 5268  936 1709 291 116  84  764  778  227  51  86 .324 .415 .472  .887
20     Alex Rodriguez    61.6  144 1275 5687 4989 1009 1535 285  22 345  990  559  995 110 177 .308 .382 .581  .963
21       Tris Speaker    61.5  168 1216 5198 4481  806 1538 282 114  41  621  541      256 302 .343 .421 .484  .905
22     Frank Robinson    60.5  150 1502 6408 5527 1043 1673 318  50 324 1009  698  789 136 161 .303 .389 .554  .943
23   Rickey Henderson    60.2  134 1322 5930 4983 1058 1455 235  44 126  504  870  668  76 794 .292 .398 .433  .831
24       Jeff Bagwell    60.1  159 1476 6519 5349 1073 1630 351  22 310 1093  992 1022 146 167 .305 .417 .552  .970 
   404. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 10, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4344310)
I think Junior goes in on the first ballot, but I'd be surprised if he hits 90%. I think a lot of voter will be doing as Davo suggests, and I can't fault them. This ballot should have produced at least 4 inductees, but instead its created a glut that will #### things over for the next 5 years, at least.
   405. jobu Posted: January 10, 2013 at 03:13 PM (#4344315)
Seriously if Griffey doesn't sail in with over 90% then the system is beyond broken.


Agree, but the question is how many of the writers (and there were several) who say they won't vote for "steroids-era" players mean that literally? That would apply to Maddux, Griffey, Jeter et al. To me, this will be the biggest case for change--if guys like this squeak in and don't get near the voting levels of the Seavers, Ripkens, Bretts, and Ryans of the past.
   406. cardsfanboy Posted: January 10, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4344328)
Agree, but the question is how many of the writers (and there were several) who say they won't vote for "steroids-era" players mean that literally? That would apply to Maddux, Griffey, Jeter et al. To me, this will be the biggest case for change--if guys like this squeak in and don't get near the voting levels of the Seavers, Ripkens, Bretts, and Ryans of the past.


That would require 60 voters like that.... don't see it happening.
   407. Karl from NY Posted: January 10, 2013 at 03:39 PM (#4344348)
Griffey is a lock to get inducted eventually. He is not a lock to reach 90%, or even to go in on his first ballot at all.
   408. MelOtt4 Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:12 PM (#4344378)

Griffey is a lock to get inducted eventually. He is not a lock to reach 90%, or even to go in on his first ballot at all.



Maybe not 90% but he's a lock to go in first ballot.
   409. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:21 PM (#4344390)
His career was a disappointment compared to expectations.

Hoo boy. What more could he have done?


Uh, Shooty? He posted 6 WAR after age 30.

I don't see any argument that his career _wasn't_ a disappointment. I mean, sure, at 19, you sign for it. But at 30? It was virtually worst case scenario.
   410. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:29 PM (#4344398)
But at 30? It was virtually worst case scenario.

His career isn't defined only by what happened after he turned 30. He's probably, what, the 6th best CFer in MLB history? I will own that failure proudly if I'm Griffey.
   411. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:32 PM (#4344403)
Uh, Shooty? He posted 6 WAR after age 30.

Yeah, but that's perfectly normal (or at least not disappointing in any way). Elongated primes are primarily a product of the Steroid Era, and HOF-caliber careers often faded as players hit 30. See, among many others, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.

The difference of course is that Junior could have been hit by a bus the day he got traded to Cincy and he's an HOFer. The list in 403 doesn't lie.

   412. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:37 PM (#4344408)
Yeah, but that's perfectly normal (or at least not disappointing in any way).


With inner circle greats, there is a reasonable expectation that they will do much better than that.

This was an extreme disappointment. And was considered so at the time, when year after year Griffey would come up lame with this injury or that.

Elongated primes are primarily a product of the Steroid Era, and HOF-caliber careers often faded as players hit 30. See, among many others, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.


Perhaps you didn't get the memo in 1990, SugarBear, but Don Mattingly hurt his back.

And Griffey played during the steroids era, so I don't know what your argument is, exactly. Shouldn't steroids have helped him to a long, successful second half of his career? Instead, he was Darryl Strawberry without the coke and whores.

(Also, plenty of inner circle greats performed until 40 without steroids.)
   413. Yardape Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:37 PM (#4344409)
I think Griffey is helped because his decline was obviously injury-related, or at least seems to be to most observers. Unlike Raines (or Andruw Jones) Griffey didn't become a part-time player because he wasn't good anymore. The perception is that he was still good, just hurt. And I think that will help him sail in on the first ballot.
   414. JJ1986 Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:38 PM (#4344410)
Elongated primes are primarily a product of the Steroid Era


I knew Mays and Aaron were users.
   415. MelOtt4 Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:45 PM (#4344421)
Perfectly normal would be a disappointment for Griffey.

If steroids are a non-issue do McGwire, Palmeiro, Sosa make it on the first ballot?
   416. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:48 PM (#4344426)
The injuries and disappointment with Griffey were a constant theme soon after he went to the Reds.

Baseball Prospectus comment on Griffey before 2003:
As the condition of Griffey’s legs has regressed from fair to critical, his place in the mind of baseball fans has gone from being a member of the All-Century Team to an afterthought. It’s likely that his rehab and training regimen this past off-season will prove to be the most important factor toward a return to his old form. The playing surface at Great American Park should help, too, because while Cinergy’s AstroTurf was gone when Griffey arrived, the grass that replaced it was too spongy. Mickey Mantle’s career ended prematurely due to bad legs. Let’s hope the same thing doesn’t happen to another Hall of Fame center fielder four decades later. A healthy Griffey in the lineup for 145 games is worth five games in the standings.


Before 2005:
Griffey's injury were even more gut-wrenching in '04, when he went on a home-run binge in May that made people think he may be back, only to succumb to a torn hamstring yet again. Though some have suggested shifting him to a corner outfield slot to lower his injury risk, Griffey's gone down again and again to sudden, violent injuries, leading observers to wonder if his body simply won't prevent him from breaking down. His legacy as a Hall of Famer is secure no matter what happens from here. That's fortunate, since the odds are heavily against him ever again playing a full season.


   417. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:49 PM (#4344428)
This was an extreme disappointment. And was considered so at the time, when year after year Griffey would come up lame with this injury or that.

But we are not at the time, we are after the time when we can peacefully reflect on the totality of Griffey's career. The narrative didn't go the way we had hoped but it would be nuts to say that, in reflection, he was a disappointment. For the Reds he was a disappointment, but who cares about the Reds...
   418. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:53 PM (#4344432)
But we are not at the time, we are after the time when we can peacefully reflect on the totality of Griffey's career. The narrative didn't go the way we had hoped but it would be nuts to say that, in reflection, he was a disappointment.


I do think he was a disappointment. The first thing I think about when I think of his career is that he couldn't stay healthy in his 30s. How great he was in his 20s plays into that.

He was great, obviously, even if silly people thought he was better than Bonds in the '90s. But his legacy is intertwined with a longing for what might have been.
   419. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 10, 2013 at 04:55 PM (#4344435)
The totality of his career is truly spectacular but Griffey is a guy I'll always wonder "what if" about. He's somewhat similar to Mantle in that even with the injuries you still got one of the game's true elites but you kind of step away thinking it could have been even more.
   420. BDC Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:01 PM (#4344439)
an extreme disappointment

If Griffey was a disappointment, it just goes to show the ill-advisedness of projecting any ballplayer to excessive heights. He hit 630 home runs. That's disappointing for people who projected him to hit 800, agreed, but seriously.

By the same token, AROD is a disappointment; Albert Pujols might well be a disappointment. These guys all have achieved amazing things; they just didn't achieve unrealistic things.
   421. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:05 PM (#4344442)
For the Reds he was a disappointment, but who cares about the Reds...


Hey now!

Actually, from 2001-2009, not even many Reds fans cared about the Reds.

Before 2005:


2004 is when Griffey tore his hamstring completely off the bone. He worked his ass off to come back from that, and, after looking rusty during April 2005, hit .313 with a .619 slg% the rest of the way (34hr in 409ab), at age 35. The dude could still really hit.
   422. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:07 PM (#4344445)
If Griffey was a disappointment, it just goes to show the ill-advisedness of projecting any ballplayer to excessive heights.


Depends what you mean by "excessive," I guess, and that can be debated, but I'm certain that line starts much higher than 6 WAR post age 30 for an all-time great player.
   423. vivaelpujols Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:08 PM (#4344447)
Certainly there are things to admire about Bonds's career, or even stand in awe of ... but celebrate?

One thinks not.


Uh yeah the fact that he was a top 5 player of all time is something to celebrate. What the hell are you even talking about?
   424. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:16 PM (#4344453)
Griffey's probably going to have to wait a year.

I'd be delighted to BBRef wager with you on that claim.
Happy to! Now to save the thread. (How much? $15?)

To be clear, I think Griffey's maybe 40/60 or 33/67 to make it first ballot. Wouldn't shock me, but I don't think it's the most likely outcome. I think you're really overestimating the impact of an MVP peak that doesn't involve milestone numbers, and underestimating the impact of a decade of a blah decline and injury. We'll see - obviously I'm rooting for Griffey. I loved that guy, saved his Fleer rookie card in a special very ugly plastic case, and he's a complete no-brainer for the Hall. But I think we're going to have to wait an extra year or two before he gets in.
   425. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:18 PM (#4344455)
Elongated primes are primarily a product of the Steroid Era, and HOF-caliber careers often faded as players hit 30.
Elongated primes are actually a product of the Amphetamine Era. The big career milestone records (homers, hits, runs, ribbies) all fell to Amphetamine Era superstars.
   426. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:24 PM (#4344459)
He hit 630 home runs. That's disappointing for people who projected him to hit 800, agreed, but seriously.


I think this is where I am. You're right that it's unrealistic expectations on my part but emotions are what they are.

Reading this I thought of Carl Lewis at the 1984 olympics. As great as he was with 4 gold medals and all the failure to break Beamon's long jump record was a big deal at the time. I remember there being a smattering of boos (amidst mostly cheers) when he came up short. That's what everyone was waiting to see and it was probably unfair of all of us to ask such great feats but it didn't feel unreasonable at the time.
   427. jmurph Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4344461)
I think you're really overestimating the impact of an MVP peak that doesn't involve milestone numbers, and underestimating the impact of a decade of a blah decline and injury.


630 home runs!
   428. bunyon Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4344462)
2004 is when Griffey tore his hamstring completely off the bone. He worked his ass off to come back from that, and, after looking rusty during April 2005, hit .313 with a .619 slg% the rest of the way (34hr in 409ab), at age 35. The dude could still really hit.

If you could go back and do it over again, he should stay in Seattle and DH. And not run at all on ground balls. That wasn't him - he really seemed to love playing CF - but he probably stays much healthier that way.

Ray and Shooty are both right, of course. His injury riddled 30s were terribly disappointing. Just not all that unusual (see Mantle, for instance). One really can't assume consistent production over two decades.
   429. PhillyBooster Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4344464)
You're ignoring the Intangible quality that Griffey was the first ever modern Premium Baseball Card ever produced (Card #1 of Upper Deck's Inaugural 1989 Set). Color pictures on the front AND back!

Don't know who card #2 was, but Griffey sealed his First Ballot status with that first Upper Deck set.

   430. SoSH U at work Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4344463)
Happy to! Now to save the thread. (How much? $15?)

To be clear, I think Griffey's maybe 40/60 or 33/67 to make it first ballot. Wouldn't shock me, but I don't think it's the most likely outcome. I think you're really overestimating the impact of an MVP peak that doesn't involve milestone numbers, and underestimating the impact of a decade of a blah decline and injury. We'll see - obviously I'm rooting for Griffey. I loved that guy, saved his Fleer rookie card in a special very ugly plastic case, and he's a complete no-brainer for the Hall. But I think we're going to have to wait an extra year or two before he gets in.


To account for your uncertainty vs. my unimpeachable faith, I'm OK with $25 sponsorship if you win, $15 if I do.

   431. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4344470)
Ray and Shooty are both right, of course. His injury riddled 30s were terribly disappointing. Just not all that unusual (see Mantle, for instance). One really can't assume consistent production over two decades.


Assume it, no, but the issue is whether he was a disappointment. It's not unreasonable to hope for more.
   432. Karl from NY Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:35 PM (#4344471)
630 home runs isn't anything special nowadays, when 609 and 762 will be loitering around for years with no love and 612 might not get attention right away either.
   433. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:35 PM (#4344473)
Ken Griffey Jr cannot be said to have had a disappointing career in the aggregate. He's just short of being an inner-circle Hall of Famer, and that's a wonderful thing to be. He was greater than, say, Jeff Bagwell or Duke Snider or Roberto Clemente.

But when Ken Griffey Jr was 29, he'd already had a Hall of Fame lock career. If he had just quit baseball instead of signing with Cincinnati, his career would have been no less great than it turned out to be. From the perspective of 1999, Griffey was a good bet to surpass DiMaggio and you could squint and see a guy heading for the inner concentric circle of the inner circle and trying to bump Speaker or Cobb out in the metaphorical game of curling that is the ranking of all-time greats. There is a perspective from within his career by which Griffey clearly disappointed.
   434. Tippecanoe Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:38 PM (#4344476)
Seems like lots of top center fielders besides Griffey are done contributing by about age 31. For example Andruw, Snider, Pinson, Cedeno, Dale Murphy, Mantle, Blair, Monday, and Lynn.
   435. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:39 PM (#4344477)
I think you're really overestimating the impact of an MVP peak that doesn't involve milestone numbers, and underestimating the impact of a decade of a blah decline and injury.

630 home runs!
I didn't mean career numbers, I meant eye-popping or record-breaking individual season numbers. Pedro's 1.74 ERA, the big HR seasons of peak sillyball, Brett or Gwynn hitting .390, Ichiro's 250 hits. Griffey was great at everything, and his incredible power numbers pale somewhat in comparison to what came after. He only won 1 MVP.

I'm not disparaging his Hall of Fame case, which should in fact be blindingly obvious. But I'm saying that there's just enough non-obvious greatness there to stick in the craw of our worse HoF voters.
   436. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:40 PM (#4344479)
Uh yeah the fact that he was a top 5 player of all time is something to celebrate. What the hell are you even talking about?


If you use the "Neutralized Batting" tool at BBRef and adjust Bonds' career to the 1968 Dodgers, he hits 259/395/525 with 634 home runs. That's one of my favorite statistical absurdities.

A Griffey-Bonds comparison is interesting in several ways. One narrative about Griffey was that he didn't work hard enough to take care of himself and that some of his breakdown in his 30s was because of that. I have no idea if it's true or not, but that was a narrative. Bonds of course had a legendary work ethic, and one can view his PED usage as an instance of being the anti-Griffy, someone excessively devoted to self-improvement. They both had a space of over a decade when they were great players, and if each had been hit by a bus at the end of that period they would have been obvious Hall of Famers. Then Griffey broke down and Bonds bulked up. It'd make an easy morality play about the value of the moderation, a story in which both principals make the wrong choice. Craig Biggio can be the hero.
   437. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:42 PM (#4344482)
To account for your uncertainty vs. my unimpeachable faith, I'm OK with $25 sponsorship if you win, $15 if I do.
Done and done, sir.
   438. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:55 PM (#4344496)
What the hell are you even talking about?

That his career, taken in its entirety, isn't worthy of celebration -- any more than Lance Armstrong's or Ben Johnson's are. Was that unclear?
   439. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 05:56 PM (#4344497)
That his career, taken in its entirety, isn't worthy of celebration. Was that unclear?


No, "unclear" is not a word I'd use. I doubt you'd like the word I'd use, though :-)
   440. Walt Davis Posted: January 10, 2013 at 06:04 PM (#4344506)
Agree, but the question is how many of the writers (and there were several) who say they won't vote for "steroids-era" players mean that literally?

Alomar 90%; Larkin 86%

On Griffey:

630 HR, 1800 RBI, 1600 R
10 GG
MVP votes in 10 seasons
1 MVP, 4 other top 5
13 AS games
3 #1 WARpos, 2 2nds and a 5th
MLB All-Century Team
Voted player of the 90s ... by the players!

Career voters will love Griffey
Peak voters will love Griffey
Anti-roid voters will love Griffey*
Saber-friendly voters will love Griffey
Cincy are voters may not love Griffey

Unless 10% of the BBWAA is in Cincy ...

*They will note that Griffey's injury-riddled 30s are proof that he didn't do roids.

Griffey's "only 6 WAR after 30" is being overstated. Griffey had a perfectly respectable 14 oWAR after 30. He loses 8 wins to defense. That's probably accurate but that was not the public perception. Nobody outside saber circles was talking about how bad he was in CF until the very end, at least not that I recall. He was an "injured star" not worthless.

Crowded ballot, blah, blah, blah but, c'mon, Puckett got 82%. Alomar debuted at 74 then got 90. The oft-injured Larkin eventually got 86.
   441. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 06:13 PM (#4344514)
Griffey had a perfectly respectable 14 oWAR after 30


So, basically, the equivalent of three or four good years with the bat, spread over a decade. And if not spread out that still leaves him done at 35.

After age 30 his best seasons by oWAR are 4.7, 2.8, and then everything under 2. I'm not sure what you're arguing, Walt. That wasn't a bitter disappointment? He had nine seasons better than 4.7 oWAR before that point. Including seven seasons at 6 or above.
   442. AROM Posted: January 10, 2013 at 06:15 PM (#4344515)
Nobody outside saber circles was talking about how bad he was in CF until the very end, at least not that I recall.


It's kind of like talking about how slow somebody is on crutches. Griffey wasn't physically capable of playing the position once the injuries piled up. It's on the Reds for letting him stay out there and not trying to find a better solution.

Then again, they were playing Adam Dunn. Perhaps they were judging Griffey by comparison.
   443. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 10, 2013 at 06:39 PM (#4344534)
Who broke the page, anyway? Was it cardsfanboy?
   444. BDC Posted: January 10, 2013 at 06:42 PM (#4344535)
There is a perspective from within his career by which Griffey clearly disappointed

I can see that perspective. For quite a while, Juan Gonzalez was tracking Griffey's career in notable ways, and I'm still waiting for him to hit even his 450th home run. On his own scale, Gonzalez was a disappointment too, though there's another scale where almost anybody who ever played the game would trade career lines with Gonzalez, let alone Griffey.
   445. BDC Posted: January 10, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4344543)
Just for fun, HOFers with <6 WAR after age 30:

WAR/pos
Jim Bottomley             4.8
Lou Boudreau              4.9
Elmer Flick               5.8
Chick Hafey               4.0
Travis Jackson            0.9
Hughie Jennings           2.5
George Kell               5.5
Joe Kelley                4.9
High Pockets Kelly        2.7
King Kelly                6.0
Ralph Kiner               2.7
Chuck Klein               3.7
Bill Mazeroski            3.1
Tommy McCarthy           
-0.7
Joe Medwick               5.5
Ray Schalk                1.6
George Sisler             4.7
Lloyd Waner               3.9 


And some pitchers:

WAR
Chief Bender       0.3
John Clarkson      3.9
Don Drysdale       4.0
Lefty Gomez       
-0.9
Catfish Hunter     0.1
Hal Newhouser      2.0
Bruce Sutter       3.9
Mickey Welch      
-2.5 


Joss, Dean, and Koufax don't even show up in the latter list, not pitching enough after 30 for various reasons.

Kinda meaningless, but does show that a lot of guys make nearly all their impact before age 31.
   446. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: January 10, 2013 at 07:11 PM (#4344557)
George Kell 5.5
Joe Kelley 4.9
High Pockets Kelly 2.7
King Kelly 6.0


Looks like Casey Kelly only has 7 years left to build his Hall of Fame case.
   447. zenbitz Posted: January 10, 2013 at 07:51 PM (#4344582)
Maybe instead of a protest meeting @ Cooperstown we should just turn the Hall of Merit into a real museum. Or at least a virtual museum. Or at least something better than this:

What kind of features would attract? Let "visitors" cast their own HOM ballot based on either the historical HOF or the HOM version?
   448. BDC Posted: January 10, 2013 at 07:55 PM (#4344588)
And more to the point, here's a slice of position-player HOFers who had more than 6 but less than 10 WAR after age 30:

WAR/pos
Hack Wilson               6.4
Monte Ward                9.3
Arky Vaughan              6.6
Duke Snider               7.5
Joe Sewell                8.7
Ron Santo                 7.8
Jim Rice                  8.9
Rabbit Maranville         8.1
Heinie Manush             9.5
Tony Lazzeri              8.2
Rick Ferrell              9.9
Hugh Duffy                6.1
Frank Chance              8.8
Orlando Cepeda            7.8 


The percentage of "mistakes" is lower here than in the <6 list. Santo, Vaughn, and Snider are perhaps not "inner-circle," but they are top-ten careers at their positions (as is Griffey).
   449. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: January 10, 2013 at 08:16 PM (#4344609)
Maybe instead of a protest meeting @ Cooperstown we should just turn the Hall of Merit into a real museum. Or at least a virtual museum. Or at least something better than this:

What kind of features would attract? Let "visitors" cast their own HOM ballot based on either the historical HOF or the HOM version?


That's always been the answer to the beefs around here. Just organize your own vote for MVP and the other awards, and your own Hall of Fame, rather like the Shadow Fed and the Shadow SEC (or for that matter the ESPN Top 25 college football poll, after decades of just the AP and UPI). Give them an name and lay out the criteria and the bona fides of the selectors. If it gains public acceptance, it does; if it doesn't, it doesn't.

Frankly, I'm surprised someone hasn't run with this by now.
   450. The District Attorney Posted: January 10, 2013 at 10:06 PM (#4344657)
I didn't realize that Jon Heyman wrote an article called "Why Bonds Belongs in the Hall" in April 2011.

Less than two years later, he's this guy:
Proud of @CBSSports and @MLBNetwork voters, who stood against steroids. @ScottMCBS @DKnobler @Ken_Rosenthal @pgammo verducci
Weird.
   451. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 11, 2013 at 06:07 AM (#4344816)
I didn't realize that Jon Heyman wrote an article called "Why Bonds Belongs in the Hall" in April 2011.

Less than two years later, he's this guy:

Opportunistic self-serving blowhard. They are both the same guy. You're mistake is assuming he believes anything he writes.
   452. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: January 11, 2013 at 06:32 AM (#4344817)
Heyman wouldn't be the first baseball writer to have a nasty emotional breakup with himself after steroids stopped being cool.
   453. Sunday silence Posted: January 12, 2013 at 07:09 AM (#4345517)
Denying Barry Bonds the honor of the Hall of Fame is a case of passing judgment on Barry Bonds. Stripping Barry Bonds of his statistical line, or stripping the 2002 Giants of their pennant, amounts to re-writing history in a crude and scattershot way. I don't think that the NCAA should exactly be our guide here, and Armstrong participated in an individual sport. If Bonds had been an Olympic champion I could see the comparison.


I dont think your position here is as simple as you put it here. Admittedly, the steroid issue is not simple for many of us. But are you saying that Bonds is merely dishonorable, or did he really cheat?

Most of the people against Bonds/steroid users say that they cheated. Is that your position? That Bonds and anyone who took steroids cheated? Or that Bonds and/or steroid users are merely "dishonorable" e.g. a racist or someone who beats spectators?

There is a difference no?
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