Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, November 06, 2018
CARLSBAD, Calif.—The Athletics were one of the best stories of the 2018 season, overcoming a rash of injuries—many of them to their starting rotation—to win 97 games and earn an American League Wild Card berth.
For his work assembling Oakland’s playoff club, Billy Beane was named the 2018 MLB Executive of the Year Monday night.
This is the first year this official award has been bestowed by MLB, the result of voting among the 30 Clubs, each of which had one vote. The runnersup for the honor were Erik Neander, Tampa Bay Rays senior vice president, baseball operations & general manager, and David Stearns, general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Neander and Stearns tied for second in the voting.
This will make many people here rather happy….

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1. The Duke Posted: November 06, 2018 at 07:56 AM (#5782709)How could the brewers not win this? Great trades, use of analytics, good drafting
All of MLB's official awards are based on regular season work only. MVP and Cy Young ballots are due the last day of the regular season.
Wasn't the argument that the Dodgers front office was telling the manager which pitchers he could and couldn't use in the WS? So I guess executives can make a team worse in the playoffs, at least.
I'm just saying stuff.
Derek Jeter wins the inaugural Jeffrey Loria Award.
The first ever Bill Bergen Award goes to Chris Davis.
Manny Machado takes home the A.J. Pierzinski Award for Unsportsmanlike Conduct.
Backlasher must be thrilled!!!
Second, the short series works in favor of the favored team (most of the time). Even ignoring any home field advantage (and assuming independence of events), a team with a 55% chance of winning each single game has a 60% chance of winning a 5 or 7game series. But you're facing off against other good teams  maybe in the first round, the Red Sox had a better than 55% chance in each game (I suspect the Astros did), but by Red SoxAstros, it had to be about 50/50, maybe back up to 55% against the Dodgers.
But of course, no matter how good or dominant you are, your chances of winning the WS conditional on making the playoffs never reaches even 50%. Even if the Red Sox had a 70% chance of winning each series, that's less than a 35% chance of winning all three. If you stick a 50/50 against the Astros in the middle of that, the chances fall to a bit under 25%.
So sure, (setting aside the playin game), teams don't start the postseason with equal 12.5% chances of winning the WS but that 25% is probably the realistic (non50s Yanks) upper end of what a GM can achieve. That's a 70/70/50 combo or a 70/60/55 combo or better than 60/60/60. So 25% is "achievable" and clearly a lot better than 12.5% much less the Indians' 5% (or whatever) but it's still a 75% chance you don't win the WS and at least a 50% chance you don't make it (more likely nearly 2/3). And of course that's all assuming that you've successfully navigated the regular season, made some good pickups along the way and arrived at the postseason reasonably healthy.
Anyway, the chances that a playoff team has anything like a 25% chance of winning the WS but didn't win 100+ regular season games must be close to zero. Further, the chances that any team that won 100+ is somehow poorly constructed for playoff success also seem very low (health issues aside). As such, basing an award like this on regular season success is reasonable and postseason success would rarely provide any useful additional information. For the Brewers  they barely eked out the best record in the NL, beat a mediocre Rox team, barely lost to a probably slightly superior Dodgers team ... those last two outcomes are pretty much what we'd expect based on 96 wins.
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