Gonzalez was 25, Cahill 23 -- how much younger can they get?

Just getting through to me how horrible they could be this year. The entire OF and DH are gone. 2 of the starting 5 and, I think, 3 of their top 4 relievers are gone. Near as I can tell, their starting OF right now is Sweeney, Taylor and ??? And he's talking about trading more away, not that there's much left.

Cot's puts them at $23 M at the moment with Sweeney, Bailey and Devine arb-eligible. So goodbye Mr. Bailey. $9 M of that is Fuentes and Balfour, not Beane's wisest investment of funds. Another $6+ M is Braden and Anderson, not their top pitchers.

The Union may soon email Mr. Selig suggesting the A's $30 M payroll suggests they are not using their shared revenue for competitive purposes.

“We’ve been through this cycle numerous times and it gets shorter and shorter because the gap between us and everyone else grows and grows. For us to compete, we need a new stadium,” Beane said.

Good for you!

Somehow Tampa has been competitive in a tougher division and crappier stadium. The A's will be working on their sixth non-winning season in a row. Thd only other AL clubs that can say that are the Orioles and Royals.

The Rays had the advantage of finishing last for so many years that they were able to draft 8 players among the Top 5 Overall of the draft (Longoria, Upton, Price, etc). That was a huge factor for their current run of success. The A's have never been bad enough to get many really high draft picks.

Somehow Tampa has been competitive in a tougher division and crappier stadium

Yes but that doesn't fit Beane's narrative, so it's not important

The Union may soon email Mr. Selig suggesting the A's $30 M payroll suggests they are not using their shared revenue for competitive purposes.

I was trying to figure out what prospects they could get by trading for Alfonso Soriano or Vernon Wells. Too bad those guys have NTC. Not to mention the Angels and Cubs have plenty of money and wouldn't be likely to trade anyone worthwhile just to get rid of those contracts. Maybe the Giants would trade someone like Gary Brown to get rid of Zito?

Nah, they'll probably have to sign Livan Hernandez for $10M or something.

No, Billy, you need an owner that isn't a shitnugget.

The A's are officially a Double-A team now.

The A's have never been bad enough to get many really high draft picks.

They also used whatever picks they had to draft Brad Sullivan, Omar Quintanilla, Bryan Snyder, Danny Putnam, Richie Robnett, Landon Powell, Corey Brown, Travis Buck, Cliff Pennington, Sean Doolittle, and James Simmons.

Their best first round pick since 2003 has been Huston Street. There's also still hope for Jemile Weeks, Michael Choice, Grant Green and Sonny Gray.

Their best lower round picks have been Andre Ethier (2nd), Kurt Suzuki (2nd), Dallas Braden (24th), and Andrew Bailey (6th).

Bad drafting has been a terrible problem for them.

Since 2003, the Rays have picked Jeremy Hellickson (4th Round), Desmond Jennings (10th), Matt Moore (8th), and Wade Davis (3rd) and Jake McGee (5th). Looks to me like the Rays have done better in the lower rounds alone than the A's have done in all their rounds put together.

“We’ve been through this cycle numerous times and it gets shorter and shorter because the gap between us and everyone else grows and grows.

What Billy Beane didn't say is that its the A's that forcing it to be shorter and shorter. A player has 6 years of service time before he leaves as a free agent, but its the A's who are trading guys in their 2-4 years.

Their best first round pick since 2003 has been Huston Street. There's also still hope for Jemile Weeks, Michael Choice, Grant Green and Sonny Gray.

Their best lower round picks have been Andre Ethier (2nd), Kurt Suzuki (2nd), Dallas Braden (24th), and Andrew Bailey (6th).

Bad drafting has been a terrible problem for them.

They also drafted Trevor Cahill. And of course if you move the endpoint one year earlier, you can add Swisher and Blanton to the list. It's not a fantastic record obviously, but it's probably in the middle of the pack.

Beane just needs to quit, at this point, not even his hard core followers thinks he has a ####### clue on how to build a team. His insistence of blowing up the team every other year is just idiotic. The a's aren't ever going to win again under Beane. It's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. He's not incompetent, he's just really a bad gm.

He's going to trade Parker and Peacock before they get too expensive in exchange for 5 top guys from the DSL

They also drafted Trevor Cahill. And of course if you move the endpoint one year earlier, you can add Swisher and Blanton to the list. It's not a fantastic record obviously, but it's probably in the middle of the pack.

Swisher---Yankee(traded for Gio Gonzalez who he has now traded)
Cahill---diamondback
Blanton---Philly(mind you, I've ridiculed the Philly fans for thinking he's actually a major league starter...this is a guy who makes Jason Marquis look good....well unless you are a fangraphs idiot. )

this argument doesn't really help. Beane is an egomaniac that hasn't been seen in mlb since Whitey Herzog was a manager, he makes constantly stupid deals to get younger, while saying "we won't compete this year" guess what, you need to compete sometime to show that you know what the #### you are doing. .....seriously there is no difference between the A's and Royals the past five years, except that Beane fools the idiots into thinking he has a clue.

Beane is an egomaniac that hasn't been seen in mlb since Whitey Herzog was a manager

LaRussa just retired.

The A's are officially a Double-A team now.

No, they're officially in the major leagues. The American League West to be specific.

LaRussa just retired.

I've watched the Cardinals for TLR's entire career. I have no clue where anyone could think of him as an egomaniac. Public perception doesn't mean reality. Compared to say Baker, Whitey or #### even Torre, there is no way he's a bigger egomaniac than those guys. Public perception is not reality.

Somehow Tampa has been competitive in a tougher division and crappier stadium. The A's will be working on their sixth non-winning season in a row. Thd only other AL clubs that can say that are the Orioles and Royals.

LOL. Friedman had a massive amount of talent already in his system upon arrival.

Beane hasn't had a pick in the top 10 since 1999, the difference between Oakland and Tampa is that Oakland was good for too long.

Every factual analysis of Oakland's drafting shows they've done fine given their drafting postions.

Beane just needs to quit, at this point, not even his hard core followers thinks he has a ####### clue on how to build a team. His insistence of blowing up the team every other year is just idiotic. The a's aren't ever going to win again under Beane. It's pretty obvious to anyone paying attention. He's not incompetent, he's just really a bad gm.

LOL. The problem with Beane is he won too many games every year to get the high picks to do a decent rebuilding job. Now he's apparently recognizing that.

I've watched the Cardinals for TLR's entire career. I have no clue where anyone could think of him as an egomaniac. Public perception doesn't mean reality. Compared to say Baker, Whitey or #### even Torre, there is no way he's a bigger egomaniac than those guys. Public perception is not reality.

I think of TLR more as an annoying drunk who has done more to ruin the enjoyment of baseball games than anyone other than Selig, and only secondarily as an egomaniac.

The Union may soon email Mr. Selig suggesting the A's $30 M payroll suggests they are not using their shared revenue for competitive purposes.

And the A's should suggest that baseball stop the Giants from asserting their imaginary rights and let the As move.

And the A's should suggest that baseball stop the Giants from asserting their imaginary rights and let the As move.

Exactly. I love how Beane is now labeled an "egomaniac" on top of things. Time for a reality check, I think.

1. If you're offered the package WAS offered and DON'T accept, that's plain foolish. A good GM takes that deal. Sorry.

2. Think of how frustrated the fans are on the OUTSIDE. Now, imagine trying to run a team under those conditions. You don't get to whine like folks do here about MLB dragging their feet to bring a resolution to this (a comittee formed in 2009 still hasn't solved anything???) . You suck it up, try your damndest to operate your team, and plow forward. You certainly want to make sure if/when the thing ever opens, you do it right. Especially now, with all that's gone on. The A's need a new stadium. I think that's fairly obvious. You continue to operate as though it will happen, eventually. You simply HAVE to. Hence, the constant cyclic behavior of churning through players quicker than your local Olive Garden burns through servers. There is ONE obstacle to that being accomplished, now. Just ONE...

2A. A while back, the Giants were struggling and...... you guessed it, needed a new stdium. The owners of the Athletics, in the best interest of the SPORT (not their bankroll) GAVE (freely) territorial rights to the Giants to build a stadium, outside of SF. The Giants eventually choose to build elsewhere, voluntarily. It's a nice stadium, right off the bay in SF. Beautiful. Right in SF. The area where the territorial rights come into play, is not even in the same county. Nor is it in the same metropolitan area. It is in an entirely different location altogether. The Giants SHOULD NOT be standing in the way of this at all. Cries over lost sales is simply shenanigans, laziness (MARKET BETTER!) and NOT helping MLB at all. Suck it up, Giants, and if you insist you own those rights, give them back for exactly what you gave up for them. Nothing. Then, this whole thing is over.

I still believe in Beane. Clearly the drafting hasn't been amazing, but the story in the early 2000s from his detractors was that all those great drafts weren't really his doing, it was Grady Fuson. So surely the blah drafting of the last few years isn't his fault either, right? There have also been a few decent players they couldn't sign: Papelbon, Smoak, Gary Brown. I'd like to have a few of them now. Though every team doubtless has a few guys who got away.

Drafting aside, it's pretty clear that Wolff has decided to starve the beast from the top down to convince MLB the franchise is so pathetic it simply must be moved to San Jose. The first part of that statement is of course a self-fulfilling prophecy: the franchise is pathetic. But Wolff's shamelessness aside, the team does really, truly actually does need a new stadium, and likely out of the East Bay. The city doesn't care, the well is poisoned, and anyway the A's really only draw from Alameda County now that the Giants have moved from the boonies to the most kick ass stadium in MLB, right downtown. Alameda County is just too damn small and too damn bereft to compete with that.

I don't blame Beane, what's he supposed to do? I'd love for him to draft multiple all-stars multiple years in a row, so the team wins with a bunch of guys on their rookie contracts in spite of it all, but that's not very reasonable. If/when/how the A's move and get a new stadium, then we'll see if he's really washed up or not. Until then it's clearly a team that by design is not supposed to compete. Silly to hang him for that.

Another $6+ M is Braden and Anderson, not their top pitchers.

Brett Anderson is probably the best pitcher in the AL if he can stay healthy.

Yes, yes, I know, not going to happen.

“We’re trying to collect as many young players as we can,” Beane said.

And in three years we'll trade them for even younger players!

Have fun on the merry-go-round, Billy.

It seems like now would be a good time for the A's to try to be relevant, since the Giants appear to want to sit on their hands and rake in money while fielding a mediocre team instead of stepping on the gas with a couple of good signings to take advantage of their perfect storm of pitching. I have to imagine that a lot of Giants fans are disenchanted about the way this off-season has gone.

I think of TLR more as an annoying drunk who has done more to ruin the enjoyment of baseball games than anyone other than Selig, and only secondarily as an egomaniac.

Pretty much, yeah.

now that the Giants have moved from the boonies to the most kick ass stadium in MLB, right downtown

The Giants are playing in PNC Park next year? How did I not hear about this until now?

Although this is very annoying as an A's fan, Beane generally does a pretty good job cycling guys out. The Matt Holliday disaster being the worst decision, but at least that was made while trying to win.

I have to say, I do hate the whining about the stadium. They were in the ALCS in 2006!

They also drafted Trevor Cahill. And of course if you move the endpoint one year earlier, you can add Swisher and Blanton to the list. It's not a fantastic record obviously, but it's probably in the middle of the pack.

Crap, I missed Cahill. OK that gets him somewhat closer to the Rays lower round success, but, still not quite there. Yes you get Swisher and Blanton (and Mark Teahen) if you move one year earlier, but you also get John McCurdy, Ben Fritz, Stephen Obenchain, and Jeremy Brown.

Whether Beane's in the middle of the pack or toward the bottom in drafting, it's pretty clear that he's nowhere near good enough to win anything. He doesn't make up for it with great free agents either. He's pretty good at getting value in trades, but that's not enough. The bottom line is that the A's haven't been relevant since they had Tejada, Chavez, Mulder, Hudson and Zito (and Giambi), but that was a long time ago, and they're not going to win anything with a GM who can't draft better than Beane has.

The bottom line is that the A's haven't been relevant since they had Tejada, Chavez, Mulder, Hudson and Zito (and Giambi), but that was a long time ago, and they're not going to win anything with a GM who can't draft better than Beane has.

That's not fair at all. The A's were in the ALCS without Tejada, Mulder, and Hudson (and Giambi).

Five years ago, Beane had a very plausible case as the best GM in the game. One wonders what's happened since then. I suspect that the drafting issues are intertwined with the player-development issues. You could say the A's would look a lot better with Andre Ethier and Carlos Gonzalez in their outfield, but maybe those guys don't turn into All-Stars if they're still in the A's organization.

The bottom line is that the A's haven't been relevant since they had Tejada, Chavez, Mulder, Hudson and Zito (and Giambi)

I guess they were irrelevant when they made the ALCS in 2006, without Tejada, Mulder, Hudson or Giambi.

The real uninspiring aspect of late-period Beane is the sub-Orioles choices of which "stars" to do his occasional splurging on. Ben Sheets, Hideki Matsui, Nomar, Holliday, Mike Piazza, Shannon Stewart, $13.5 million for 2 years to Esteban Loaiza.

Brett Anderson is probably the best pitcher in the AL if he can stay healthy.

What?

I guess they were irrelevant when they made the ALCS in 2006, without Tejada, Mulder, Hudson or Giambi.

I guess they were irrelevant when they made the ALCS in 2006, without Tejada, Mulder, Hudson or Giambi.

They were a slightly above average team that had a great year. They were about as relevant as 2006 Blue Jays except that they were in a weaker division and upset the Twins in the first round of the playoffs.

The real uninspiring aspect of late-period Beane is the sub-Orioles choices of which "stars" to do his occasional splurging on. Ben Sheets, Hideki Matsui, Nomar, Holliday, Mike Piazza, Shannon Stewart, $13.5 million for 2 years to Esteban Loaiza.

I would add Jason Kendall and Mark Kotsay to that list. Holliday was actually just fine for Oakland, just not worth trading Carlos Gonzalez for.

They were a slightly above average team that had a great year. They were about as relevant as 2006 Blue Jays except that they were in a weaker division and upset the Twins in the first round of the playoffs.

That's a high bar for relevant. How many relevant teams were there last year? 4 or 5? Were the Cardinals relevant?

I would add Jason Kendall and Mark Kotsay to that list. Holliday was actually just fine for Oakland, just not worth trading Carlos Gonzalez for.

The A's problem is that they gave up on Carlos Gonzalez way too soon. He only got 316 PAs with the A's before they shipped him out.

2A. A while back, the Giants were struggling and...... you guessed it, needed a new stdium. The owners of the Athletics, in the best interest of the SPORT (not their bankroll) GAVE (freely) territorial rights to the Giants to build a stadium, outside of SF. The Giants eventually choose to build elsewhere, voluntarily. It's a nice stadium, right off the bay in SF. Beautiful. Right in SF. The area where the territorial rights come into play, is not even in the same county. Nor is it in the same metropolitan area. It is in an entirely different location altogether. The Giants SHOULD NOT be standing in the way of this at all. Cries over lost sales is simply shenanigans, laziness (MARKET BETTER!) and NOT helping MLB at all. Suck it up, Giants, and if you insist you own those rights, give them back for exactly what you gave up for them. Nothing. Then, this whole thing is over.

Wally Haas was a mug. What he did was his perogative - he was a sportsman and ran the A's as a fun toy with the profits from his blue jeans business. He was also a native San Franciscan who lived his entire life in San Francisco and, conscious of his image as a good man, didn't want to be stared at at every cocktail party he went to as the guy who made the Giants move out of the area. But he was a mug and the Giants are not mugs.

#34....

So....that means they should or shouldn't give the rights back for exactly the same amount they paid for them?

Of course, then the Giants would actually have to PROVE they actually have those rights in anything other than theory, since the argument exists that the deal actually hinged on a stadium being built that was never built. The County itself threatened to sue the Giants on this very argument if they wouldn't stay out of the way of a deal getting done. I think there's a reason why the Giants never once PUBLICLY and OFFICIALLY came out with any sort of paperwork and declared outright they have rights there....they knew it would be a losing battle and postured for as long as they could.

Brett Anderson is probably the best pitcher in the AL if he can stay healthy.

What?

Sorry, did I stutter?

The A's problem is that they gave up on Carlos Gonzalez way too soon. He only got 316 PAs with the A's before they shipped him out.

Carlos Gonzalez was never blossoming with the A's. We don't develop hitters, like, at all. You must be thinking of another team.

That's a high bar for relevant. How many relevant teams were there last year? 4 or 5? Were the Cardinals relevant?

To me, "relevant" means World Series contender. So technically any team that makes the playoffs could be considered relevant from that perspective. I meant more in the sense that the team was good enough to be a World Series contender without a large amount of luck. That team was not anywhere near the level of the Twins, Tigers or Yankees, and finished with a lower Pythag record than the Blue Jays and White Sox as well. So from a fan's perspective they were relevant, but in terms of evaluating a GM, I wouldn't count them as relevant.

The 2011 Cards were certainly relevant, as were the Phillies and Brewers in the NL. All were legitimate World Series contenders when healthy and the Cards were better than the Brewers after the Rasmus trade. The Braves were too till they lost their pitching staff to injury so I'd count them as well. The Diamondbacks seemed a clear cut below the Brewers and Cards but I guess you could make a case for them.

Sorry, did I stutter?

I thought maybe you had missed a word or two.

A's drafting

First, let's be clear, the claim was about the quality of their drafting, not whether Beane later made good decisions about who to keep.

2003:
Ethier -- #62 pick, 11.8 WAR, 3rd best #62 pick of all-time, likely to become #1 this year

The A's did have 2 1st and one 1s pick that year who returned nothing. But those were picks 25, 26 and 33. Players of note they conceviably could have drafted are Barton, Quentin or Adam Jones.

Only 4 #25 picks have ever returned more than 10 career WAR; 3 more 5+; 3 more 1+. The numbers are much worse for #26 and #33. The greatest #33 pick of all time was Dave Burba. Simply by virtue of making the majors, Omar Quintanilla is the 10th best #33 pick of all-time.

So, in 2003, the A's had 4 picks which generally don't return much value and Beane hit on one of them. Median return on those picks is 0, upper quartile is maybe 1 WAR. Beane grabbed one of the 10 best players combined across picks 25, 26, 33 and 62.

In 2003, the Rays had the #1, 38 and 68 picks. Those players have produced -5.2 WAR. The best player they drafted was Jaso in round 12, good for 2.4 WAR.

2004

The A's had the 24, 26, 36, 40, 49 and 67 picks. These picks have combined for roughly 20 WAR led by Street (10.7) and Suzuki (9.9). Landon Powell was their #24 pick and, despite only .3 WAR, he is the 10th best #24 pick of all-time. 26 was Robnett who didn't make the majors (typical as mentioned above). Putnam was #36 who, by virtue of making the majors, gets into the top half. Street was #40 and he's the 4th best #40; Suzuki is only the 5th best #67 (Reushcel, Guidry and Joyner were all 67s).

The best player selected in the 1 and 1s rounds after Powell (not including Street) is ... Gio Gonzalez. The 2nd best is Blake DeWitt. Reach into the 2nd round and you get Gallardo (#46).

In 2004, the Rays had the #4, 45 and 75 picks. These players have produced 6.3 WAR. The best is Jeff Niemann (#4 overall) although Wade Davis might pass him. Niemann is the 19th best #4 of all-time, just behind Mike Harkey.

Running tally: through two drafts, the A's are ahead 32 WAR to 1.

2005

The A's have the 21, 36, 53 and 69 picks. Pennington is already the #9 #21 pick of all-time (5.3 WAR). Travis Buck, with 2 whole WAR, is the 7th best #36 pick though he'll probably be passed by Salty. 53 and 69 haven't made the majors. Total 7.3 WAR return.

The A's did miss out on a fair chunk of talent as Ellsbury, Garza, Rasmus and Buchholz were all drafted after Pennington.

The Rays had the #8 and #56 pick. Neither made the majors. They did grab Hellickson in the 4th round (4.8 WAR to date).

Running tally: A's 39 WAR, Rays 1 (or 6 if you want to include Hellickson)

2006

The A's stupidly surrendered their #1 pick for Loaiza (possibly Beane's stupidest move). So they had only the #66 pick -- Cahill, 9.3 WAR, already the 2nd best #66 pick ever, only 1.6 WAR behind Dempster. Note the A's also grabbed Bailey (7.2 WAR) in round 6.

The Rays had the 3, 47 and 79 picks. They finally hit the jackopot with Longoria with 24 WAR. The other two have returned nothing.

Running tally: A's 49 WAR, Longoria 24, Rays 1

2007

Picks 26 (their cursed pick), 41, 59, 74. This one has been terrible for the A's returning no value. With perfect hindsight they could have had Mike Stanton; more realistically Rick Porcello or Tommy Hunter. Just not a deep draft.

The Rays had #1 and #65. Price has been worth 10 WAR.

Running tally: A's 49 WAR, Rays 35 WAR

2008

The A's had picks 12 and 58. Both are in the majors and have returned 2.4 WAR. Weeks might be the A's best position player (not saying much). Don't know prospects too well but Brett Lawrie and Ike Davis are the only notable picks after Weeks that have made the majors.

Nobody from the 2008 draft ha made the majors for the Rays yet. Tim Beckham (#1 overall) isn't looking like anything special. They also had the 47 and 78 picks.

Final Score: A's 51 WAR, Rays 35 WAR

Now, fair enough, I'll take the Rays group going forward I think. Longoria alone is likely to win this for the Rays and several of the A's picks have already established themselves as pretty meh if not outright fungible.

But then the Rays had a top 5 pick in all but one of these years, including 3 #1 overall (only one of which has been worth a damn). The A's only had one top 15 pick (and he's doing OK so far). The A's were mainly drafting in slots where 1/3 or fewer of the players even make the majors but the A's regularly got value. They never found a star but, generally speaking, nobody else was finding stars in subsequent picks.

The team the A's don't compare well with is the Red Sox. They picked in similar slots as the A's and have generally done much better, especially in terms of finding potential star talent (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester).

The A's were mainly drafting in slots where 1/3 or fewer of the players even make the majors but the A's regularly got value. They never found a star but, generally speaking, nobody else was finding stars in subsequent picks.

This would be adequate if they had some other means of obtaining stars. They don't, and therefore it isn't.

Landon Powell was their #24 pick and, despite only .3 WAR, he is the 10th best #24 pick of all-time. 26 was Robnett who didn't make the majors (typical as mentioned above). Putnam was #36 who, by virtue of making the majors, gets into the top half.

This is the kind of analysis that drives me nuts about stats people. The objective isn't to consistently gain 0.3 WAR players and therefore "get into the top half", it's to win games and championships. I would give the A's zero credit for this Powell and Putnam.

The bottom line is that the Rays with lower round picks got Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings. Of the A's picks in any round, 1st or lower, only Cahill is someone you would ever trade for any of these guys, irrespective of contract situation. And Moore is far and away more valuable today than anyone the A's have drafted since 2003, or, for that matter, since 1999. They still haven't realized that the one star you get is infinitely more valuable than getting 100% of your draft picks to the majors or all the Landon Powells of the world combined.

There's no doubt that the Rays have benefitted from the high draft picks; Upton, Longoria, and Price have all been huge for the team and Niemann has produced some positive value as well. Plus Delmon Young might suck but his upside undoubtedly played a factor in the Rays being able to make a big trade with Minnesota. So there's some obvious truth behind the cliched, tired harping about how the Rays are successful because of drafting highly for years. However, those like VA that focus on that are missing the vital point that even a few top picks panning out won't make a playoff team, even if you draft well it's easy to screw that all up at the major league level (plus there's the matter of drafting the right players with the top picks, the current front office has Longoria and Price on their record but Longoria was just one of 5-6 players considered to be the top of the draft class and at times the Matt Bushes and Bryan Bullingtons of the world get drafted ahead of the David Prices). What has made the Rays a playoff team in three of the last four seasons instead of a mediocre team with a few top players and a bunch of scrubs is the outstanding job Friedman and his team have done in filling out the roster around the homegrown players.

Similar to what Walt did above, here's what the Rays have gotten in trades and free agent signings using BBREF WAR (WAR for traded players is prior to them becoming free agents, all value is that which was produced from 2008-11 when the Rays were actually good):

2006

Traded Danys Baez and Lance Carter (-) for Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany (2.1)
Traded Fernando Cortez and Joey Gathright (-.4) for JP Howell (3.6)
Traded Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson (-) for Jae Seo, Dioner Navarro, and Justin Ruggiano (1.1)
Traded Aubrey Huff (-) for Ben Zobrist and Mitch Talbot (15.2)
Traded Julio Lugo (-) for Sergio Pedroza and Joel Guzman (-)
Traded Russell Branyan (-) for Evan Meek and Dale Thayer (-.5)

-.4 future WAR "lost" in return for 21.5 gained

2007

Signed Gary Glover (-.3)
Josh Hamilton lost in the Rule 5 draft (17.5)
Won the posting auction for and signed Akinori Iwamura (2.7)
Signed Scott Dohmann (-.1)
Signed Carlos Pena as an NRI (5.9)
Signed Al Reyes (0)
Signed Michel Hernandez (-.3)
Traded Seth McClung (1) for Grant Balfour (3.8)
Traded Jorge Cantu (-) for nobody relevant
Traded Ty Wigginton (2.4) for Dan Wheeler (2.9)

20.9 WAR lost, 14.6 gained. Leaving Hamilton unprotected was one of only two moves by Friedman that has ended up as a major negative, I doubt that the Reds had any idea that Hamilton would do what he did immediately upon making the majors but it happened regardless.

2008

Now all the free agent signings could be affecting the relevant major league teams, hopefully I'm not omitting anyone that made it onto the major league roster at some point

Traded Brendan Harris, Delmon Young, and Jason Pridie (.6) for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett (15.7)
Signed Troy Percival (-.4)
Traded Elijah Dukes (3) for Glenn Gibson (-)
Signed Cliff Floyd (.7)
Signed Mike DiFelice (.1)
Traded Jeff Ridgway (.1) for Willy Aybar (1.1)
Signed Eric Hinske (.8)
Signed Trever Miller (.3)
Claimed Nathan Haynes (-.4)
Claimed Dan Johnson (-.3, includes value from the later re-signing of Johnson after he went to Japan)
Traded Josh Butler (-.1) for Gabe Gross (2.8)
Pittsburgh had taken Evan Meek in the Rule 5 draft but removed him from the roster, the Rays then allowed them to buy Meek's rights (2.8)
Acquired Chad Bradford for cash (.9)

6.4 lost, 21.3 gained. That 3 WAR lost from Dukes is hard to mark against them though, he absolutely had to go after the many troubles he had (including the Durham Bulls telling the Rays that Dukes wasn't allowed on their club any longer).

2009

Signed Chris Richard (-.2)
Traded Edwin Jackson (9.1) for Matt Joyce (4.8)
Signed Randy Choate (.6)
Signed Joe Nelson (0)
Signed Pat Burrell (-1.3)
Signed Gabe Kapler (-.2)
Signed Lance Cormier (1.3)
Signed Winston Abreu (.1)
Signed Brian Shouse (0)
Signed Jason Isringhausen (.2)
Traded Jason Hammel (5.5) to the Rockies for Aneury Rodriguez (-)
Traded Adam Kennedy (1.1) for Joe Dillon (.1)
Traded Winston Abreu (-.3) for Jon Meloan (-)
Claimed Jose Lobaton (-.2)
Traded Rhyne Hughes (-.1) for Gregg Zaun (.3)
Claimed Russ Springer (.1)
Traded Scott Kazmir (.3) for Sean Rodriguez and Alex Torres (3.5)

15.6 lost, 9.1 gained. Suprising total result, Hammel had struggled for any sort of consistency as a reliever, was out of options, and quasi-blocked in the offseason so trading him was defensible but they got nothing in return. Getting out of the rest of Kazmir's contract was a big gain that's not reflected in WAR (but of course they also bear responsibility for deciding to give him that contract in the first place). Burrell is the other big negative on Friedman's record, $16 million of a small-market team's payroll for garbage DHing.

2010

Traded Akinori Iwamura (-1.4) for Jesse Chavez (-)
Signed Dane De La Rosa (-.2)
Traded Mitch Talbot (-.6) for Kelly Shoppach (1.6)
Traded Jesse Chavez (-1.4) for Rafael Soriano (2.5)
Claimed Mike Ekstrom (.2)
Signed Joaquin Benoit (2.3)
Signed Hank Blalock (-.1)
Signed Rocco Baldelli (-.2)
Traded Matt Gorgen (-) for Chad Qualls (-.5)
Signed Brad Hawpe (0)

-3.4 "lost", 5.6 gained

2011

Declined option on Dan Wheeler (.3)
Signed Russ Canzler (0)
Signed Joel Peralta (1.3)
Traded Jason Bartlett (.1) for Brandon Gomes, Adam Russell, and Cesar Ramos (.6)
Traded Matt Garza and Fernando Perez (2.9) for Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld, Brandon Guyer, Hak-Ju Lee, and Chris Archer (2)
Signed Kyle Farnsworth (1.8)
Claimed Rob Delaney (-.2)
Signed Casey Kotchman as NRI (2.9)
Signed Johnny Damon (2.8)
Signed Manny Ramirez (-.3)
Signed Felipe Lopez (-.2)
Signed Juan Cruz (.3)
Released Cory Wade (1.3)

4.6 lost, 10.7 gained

So by trading away, losing in Rule 5, or releasing players who immediately went on to succeed for other teams (I didn't add Burrell with the Giants in 2010 because there's no reason to think that he would have performed like that if he continued as a DH) the Rays have lost 43.7 WAR while adding 82.8. If you were to look at Oakland's track record in the recent seasons of their struggles I doubt they would come out nearly as favorably and that's a large part of why they have struggled so much. The Rays are built on smart management with some good fortune in having those early picks, Oakland is irrelevant because Beane has been completely unable to make the moves to put together a winning team around whatever good homegrown talent they've produced. So yeah, call the Rays lucky for the high draft picks if you want but acknowledge that they're in the playoffs because they're run extremely well independent of those high picks. Plus the future is plenty bright due to the talent on the farm system where Tim Beckham is the only remaining legacy of the bad seasons.

This is the kind of analysis that drives me nuts about stats people. The objective isn't to consistently gain 0.3 WAR players and therefore "get into the top half", it's to win games and championships. I would give the A's zero credit for this Powell and Putnam.

This is dumb because even 0.3 WAR players have value. It means they were successful enough in the minors to have trade value.

Oakland is irrelevant because Beane has been completely unable to make the moves to put together a winning team around whatever good homegrown talent they've produced

Beane might not be the best GM in baseball, but he's clearly been one of the least lucky, and luck plays a significant part in every season and GM results. Because of that his results look worst than they should, but you also clearly see he's a good GM in the value he gets in the draft and trades.

You can say the exact same about the value Friedman gets for Tampa. And he might be the best GM in baseball, but in the reverse of Beane he's clearly been very fortunate, not just in inheriting talent, but in player health, development, trades, etc.

This is the kind of analysis that drives me nuts about stats people. The objective isn't to consistently gain 0.3 WAR players and therefore "get into the top half", it's to win games and championships. I would give the A's zero credit for this Powell and Putnam.

This is dumb because even 0.3 WAR players have value. It means they were successful enough in the minors to have trade value.

Oakland is irrelevant because Beane has been completely unable to make the moves to put together a winning team around whatever good homegrown talent they've produced

Beane might not be the best GM in baseball, but he's clearly been one of the least lucky, and luck plays a significant part in every season and GM results. Because of that his results look worst than they should, but you also clearly see he's a good GM in the value he gets in the draft and trades.

You can say the exact same about the value Friedman gets for Tampa. And he might be the best GM in baseball, but in the reverse of Beane he's clearly been very fortunate, not just in inheriting talent, but in player health, development, trades, etc.

This is the kind of analysis that drives me nuts about stats people. The objective isn't to consistently gain 0.3 WAR players and therefore "get into the top half", it's to win games and championships. I would give the A's zero credit for this Powell and Putnam.

This is dumb because even 0.3 WAR players have value. It means they were successful enough in the minors to have trade value.

Oakland is irrelevant because Beane has been completely unable to make the moves to put together a winning team around whatever good homegrown talent they've produced

Beane might not be the best GM in baseball, but he's clearly been one of the least lucky, and luck plays a significant part in every season and GM results. Because of that his results look worst than they should, but you also clearly see he's a good GM in the value he gets in the draft and trades.

You can say the exact same about the value Friedman gets for Tampa. And he might be the best GM in baseball, but in the reverse of Beane he's clearly been very fortunate, not just in inheriting talent, but in player health, development, trades, etc.

I think it's pretty fuzzy, how much the bad luck with injuries and development might actually be attributable to poor practices in both areas. especially with development. #### goes so bad, so fast, with hitters they bring in to the org.

This is dumb because even 0.3 WAR players have value. It means they were successful enough in the minors to have trade value.

Ironic that you posted this on the day Landon Powell was DFA. Let's see how much they get for him in trade.

If the move to San Jose is ON and the A's go into full rebuilding mode, the A's need to get as much future potential they can for their currently valuable players.
Andrew Bailey is obviously next.
Fuentes and Balfour will not be members of the San Jose Athletics - nor will they be particularly valuable to a bad 2012 team. Better to trade them now, trade them to a contender at the trade deadline, or hold them for draft-pick compensation (if there is any)? The A's need to work the angles to get maximum return for these two guys. Trading them now may also give "benefit" of higher draft position.

There is lots of good info in this thread. Good job, posters!

The A's problem is that they gave up on Carlos Gonzalez way too soon. He only got 316 PAs with the A's before they shipped him out.

And this is kinda the problem with Beane the last few years. Guys are cycled in and out so quickly it doesn't seem like there is any time to develop a really good team. They've had really good players, they just haven't held onto them.