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Hopefully, absence will make the average Met fan's heart grow fonder with respect to Beltran. Also hopefully, we got something decent for him ;-) Sounds like we probably did.
With the mega-force that is Jason Bay??? You're joking, right?
Seriously, no. Beltran has been the everyday right-fielder this year. No left field.
Ben Badler tweeted: "I like Zack Wheeler. I do. Big upside. Just want to see him put 150 innings on that arm before going nuts."
I'm so sorry Sir! Please accept my apology. You see, since Schierholtz has been hitting well, and has never played left, I was simply curious if Beltran had any experience playing left. I'm so sorry!
He missed a large part of last season due to a finger issue, so he is still very raw.
Sure. They don't make the play-offs this year, or they do but go out in the first round and Beltran helps them not at all. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler ends up having his number retired after winning 300 games for the Mets. As a bonus, Carlos Beltran returns to the Mets next spring after Boras gives Alderson a hometown discount, and the Mets will have gotten a HOF pitcher for 2+ months of Beltran. Voila.
This seems like a dumb move. Beltran is a damn good player, but he's a 2 win improvement at most for a Giants team that's better than the D-backs anyway. The Mets HAD to trade Beltran in the next 4 days, and their other choices were divisional rivals who would not give up a top arm. WTF Sabean?
I could listen to him for hours...
I am sad to see him go, especially given the awesome season he's had so far. The rock in the lineup with Wright, Reyes, and Davis out. I'm wondering if they're just going to stick Duda out there everyday, defense be damned, or give Pridie and Hairston more time. Guessing Nick Evans gets called up to take his spot.
I know it would be an irrational move, but I'd like to see this. And, sign Reyes no matter what it costs.
If I were Sabean, my answer would be, "This is for the games after we dispose of the Diamondbacks." The goal isn't to win the NL West. The goal is to repeat as world champions, and Sabean might simply believe (as perhaps few of us here do) that it is NOT simply a crapshoot, that his team is likely to have to beat both the Braves and Phillies to win it all, and that they have a much better chance to do so with Beltran's bat in the Giants' line-up rather than in one of the opponents'. Flags fly forever, and back-to-back championships are rare enough to really go for.
If I'm me? I don't give up a Top 50 prospect for a rental. But that's me.
Dallas Green can take care of that for you, if you give him a week or so.
I posted this in the other thread, but it seems like the Mets got more for Beltran than the Royals did seven years ago.
Classy move by Carlos. I am very glad I went to the game in Cincinnati Monday night -- the next-to-last game in which Wright, Reyes and Beltran all played together. That is certainly the best core of players (non-pitchers, anyway) the Mets have ever had together for such a significant period. Their success has been undermined by injuries and by the inability of the FO to put together the complementary pieces for the team to be as great as they deserved, but they are still a hell of a core. I just hope Wright and Reyes have the future together as Mets that should have been the past with Beltran.
But I think we should take a step back and recognize that he's got a 4.81 BB/9 in the California League. J.A. Happ has a 4.81 BB/9 in the majors this year (the worst rate among qualified pitchers) and he has a 6.12 ERA...
Didn't see any mention of this, but who will the Giants release/send down to make room for Beltran?
Why are you so sure Minor was ever offered? Every report I've read is that the Braves have made the Minor/Teheran/Delgado/Vizcaino quartet off limits so far.
Maybe they will release Bill Hall (can you release a player when he is on the DL)? Either Hall or Burriss seems the most redundant since they have Keppinger. Hopefully it's not Belt...
That nails it. Acquiring Beltran is all about improving the team's chances in the post-season.
As a Giants' fan, I'm very pleased with this deal.
As for Wheeler and his walk rate, he supposedly has an electric arm. Clayton Kershaw walked a lot of people in the minors when he was 19. As Keith Law says, improving command is all about learning to repeat your delivery. You can teach that, but you largely can't teach a 95+ MPH fastball. I don't think Wheeler is as good a prospect as Kershaw was a few years back, but he's a very impressive young arm. I'm actually surprised he's as old as he is already, considering he was a high school pick; i guess he was 19 when he graduated.
http://www.metsblog.com/2011/07/27/video-zack-wheeler-condensed-start/
FWIW - Kershaw's minor league walk rate was 3.82 BB/9
I know they made the right move, I guess in the end I wasn't ready to Beltran to go yet. Farewell Piss Tits. I hope SF appreciates you more than NY did.
Which is why you want a lot of pitching prospects. It increases your odds that one of them will develop.
I disagree - the question isn't even getting Beltran - the question is the price they paid. Is there any evidence to suggest the Braves were going to come close (especially when they would not deal their top 4 arms - Minor, Julio, Vizcaino, or Delgado)? Sabean had leverage, and did not use it. Again, Beltran makes this team better - what is not clear is whether he's the type of marginal improvement (ie, Reyes) that would make it worth it, especially since the Mets had to deal him in the next 4 days or get nothing.
Where are your legs that used to run, hurroo, hurroo
Where are your legs that used to run
When you went to carry a gun
Indeed your dancing days are done
Oh Carlos, we hardly knew ye.
The question (from the Giants POV). If they refused the Mets price, then the Mets might have been forced to lower their demands. By lowering their demands, would that make it more likely that the Phillies or Braves get Beltran? Since the teams the Giants have to defeat are also in the hunt for the same player, this becomes somewhat of a game theory situation. You want to minimize your cost, while improving your team and stopping your opponents from improving theirs.
Yes, there are both defensive and offensive issues involved. Given the inherent unreliability of pitching prospects, if indeed the price was apparently just Wheeler plus some possible cash, I think it's a fair price and a good deal.
I think the issue was that the Mets were strongly inclined to take the deal with the best single prospect in it. Maybe Atlanta doesn't put Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado or Minor in the deal (and I don't get the fuss about Minor), but my understanding is that they could put a secondary prospect package together that would be better than the Giants. Same with the Rangers and possibly the Phillies. The Giants were in a position where if they didn't put Wheeler in the deal (my uninformed guess is that the Mets were never too high on Brown), Beltran would be traded somewhere else. That was all the leverage the Mets needed over the Giants. Time wasn't on the Giants side because the Mets had other offers on the table.
All indications are that the Mets will be picking up most of Beltran's tab, to make sure they get a good prospect in return. You might have missed that news in your sad-hole, though.
I also don't think they'll move Reyes, though who knows. It's not about the money, though.
The Mets are 7.5 games out of the wild card (and double that to the division lead) with 4 teams ahead of them. The Mets are playing mediocre baseball (6-6 since the All-Star break). Nothing the Mets have done this year should make anyone believe that they will be able to make the playoffs this year. Beltran was gone after this year, so the Mets made the (very rational) decision to get the best deal they could for him (remembering that they could not offer him arbitration to get compensation picks).
Or the Mets would decide not to trade him if no suitable offer was made. I'm not positing that that was almost the case, but a team must hold out the possibility of making no trade if the offers are not good.
I'll miss Carlos, would've preferred he went to the Red Sox, but I'm glad he's not staying in the NL East. Sam's hypothetical has no chance of happening, but I'd love it if they somehow brought him back next year. I wanted them to trade Reyes and go after him this offseason too. That actually seemed more reasonable to me, given that all the Mets fans love Reyes and hate Beltran.
Agreed. My guess is that if all the teams held the line on their top prospects : (a) the offers still would have been good enough for the Mets to do the deal and (b) Beltran wouldn't have been traded to the Giants.
MLB ready lefty starters with a mid rotation talent ceiling are pretty valuable. He may never be filet mignon, but he will never be chopped liver either.
The Mets are picking up most of the remaining money on Beltran's salary. Basically, they spent $4M to buy one of the top 40 prospects in the minor leagues. Isn't that we want, Benji? The Mets to be willing to spend money to improve? If they had insisted on the team acquiring Beltran picking up the whole tab, they would have gotten a C prospect or two. The willingness to spend here got them a guy who is at least as good as any prospect in their system -- Wheeler is basically another Matt Harvey. The Mets weren't going to win this year with Beltran, hard as that is to accept. They significantly improved their farm system today. By NOT making money the priority.
As far as K-Rod is concerned, that trade was about the money -- but you know what? It is 100% justified and smart not to want to spend $17.5M on a pitcher like K-Rod in 2012. If you disagree, then fine -- but not every decision to avoid spending money is evidence the Mets are cheap and/or stupid. I have almost as many problems with the Mets owners and the situation they've put the franchise in as you do, but it would have been felonious mismanagement to let that option vest. If that's an example of it being "about the money," here's to money-based decision-making.
This. Wheeler signed in 2009 for $3.3M. The Mets got him for $4M plus two months of Beltran.
Excuse me? WTF does his hitting ability have to do with whether he plays left or right? On this team he will be the starting LF, there isn't even a discussion. This isn't in the F'n Mets, this is a team where Beltran will be at best the 4th best defensive OF'er on the roster.
Schierholtz provides gold glove quality defense in right, if he is on the field he plays right.
Which is substantially better than Wheeler's walk rate.
It seems to me a good trade for both sides, if it's just these two. The Giants want to win now and have tons of pitching, Wheeler's far away and is far from polished, and the Mets get a nice payout in an intriguing prospect. Trading at its best. Hooray for everybody.
Welllllll . . . that includes what he did when he was older than Wheeler, when he figured everything out in 2008 and dramatically lowered his walk rate at Jacksonville (AA). In 2007, when he was the same age and pitching at the same level where Wheeler is now (before being promoted to AA for a few innings late in the year), Kershaw was pretty comparably wild: 4.9 BB/9 that season overall, 4.6 in A ball. The Mets obviously will be thrilled if Wheeler finds his command at age 20 the way Kershaw did.
He was ranked #55 by BA in the preseason, he was an early first round draft pick, and Keith Law had him ranked I believe #33 mid-season this year. So I understand people like him. But why? (also, someone condensed a lot of the BA comments on Wheeler here: http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/showthread.php?t=638055)
He doesn't seem to be one of those guys who kills it with "stuff" ... looks like the FB is 91-94. I've read that he's a pretty smart pitcher already, so that doesn't portend well for his ability to improve as he goes up the ladder (Amazin Avenue has a blurb about him already). Most importantly, he's struggling so far in High-A. That 4.81 BB/9 is actually getting worse ... he's walked 34 batters in his last 56 innings. So if he's not a stuff OR a finesse guy -- what is he?
Mercury News
Not according to Fangraphs UZR. Schierholtz has a -1.0 (-1.8/150) while Beltran has 0.0 (-0.3/150).
link
Meanwhile, Wheeler has allowed 85 BB in 138.2 IP. He's made improvements in his walks this year, but he still has a long way to go.
When the server hiccups, it cause my work firewall to resend. It's very annoying.
He's definitely a stuff guy, but he's still raw. From Keith Law's mid-season report:
"There's some thought he could end up in the 'pen because the fastball command isn't there, but he barely pitched last year, and the lack of repetitions may be a reason. It's No. 1 or 2 starter stuff."
Yup. You're right. I thought I'd read he's 19, but either I read that wrong, or the article was wrong. Either way, he's 21. My bad. He's at the same level of experience Kershaw had in dealing with the control issues, but not the age.
EDIT:
I'm not sure we can say that Kershaw figured it out, though. His first exposure to pro ball he had a 1.22 BB/9. This is a small sample size, but all of his minor league work added together adds up to just over 200 IP, so I think it's best to look at it all together.
I don't see it that way. That 1.22 BB/9 you cite was in a really small sample size, 37 IP, in the rookie league, where I would argue that he could just throw a bunch of fastballs against overmatched hitters. IMHO, you have to just throw that out completely. It's his first full, A-ball season that is really comparable to Wheeler -- and where he had the control issues that are similar. The second season was just completely different.
Now, there's no guarantee (or even likelihood, frankly) that Wheeler will have the same sort of "Aha!" breakthrough with his command. All I'd say Kershaw shows is that this sort of dramatic improvement is achievable for a pitcher, and that it's possible to read too much into first-season control issues for a young pitcher with a lot of stuff.
Sample size...
over his career Schierholtz has a UZR/150 in RF (the only place he has played in the majors) of 12.8
Beltran is at -0.3
young.
Seriously, he's striking out more than 10/9 in the minors. Even with the terrible walk rate, this year his K/BB is a smidgen over 2. He's given up less than 8 hits per 9 and less than 1 HR per 9. If he was doing all that while walking only 3/9 he'd already be up in the majors.
People are excited not because he's a sure thing, lights out prospect but because getting somebody this good for 2 months of Beltran is pretty good return.
(link)
In these clips he looks good, but I'd feel better if he threw harder or was getting better results in High-A.
Boras might be another reason why this was impossible.
Maybe I'm confusing you with Banta and billyshears, Benji, but aren't you usually not this big an idiot?
If he were throwing harder or getting better results, then the Mets wouldn't have gotten him for Beltran.
Wright is hitting HRs again...that's good to see.
Better to have a bird in hand than two in the bush. Wheeler has a lot of developing to do.
By the way, I was going through that old thread and laughed when saw this:
Okay, the point with Huber is this: the Royals basically traded Jose Batista for Huber. That's an amazing steal. Can anyone give me a logical explanation as to why the Royals were in on the deal? The Pirates obviously would have done better had they kept KC out of it.
You can (and I do) lament that the Mets are in the position they're in. The Wilpons have mismanaged the franchise and their own finances to the point of farce. But that is different from opposing this trade, once you accept that you can't rewind the tape and change the position we're in. From this particular starting point, this trade is absolutely as good as you could hope for, and it was the right thing to do.
EDIT: Sam beat me to it, as usual.
There were really only two options that were reasonable given Beltran's contract situation:
1) Trade him before the deadline.
2) Sign him to a (very) short extension.
I think it's highly unlikely that Beltran would have accepted #2 given his strong performance this season. The alternatives are all terrible: have Beltran leave at the end of the season and get nothing because they can't offer arbitration; trade Beltran and the whole contract and get crappy prospects; sign Beltran to a long-term deal.
I don't really see that as a plus. Actually, I see the almost inevitable benching of Belt as a major downside to this deal. Bochy's history of player use suggests that Huff is going to continue getting the lion's share of the time at first base, even with his epic struggles at the plate. Belt's best hope for playing time was his ability to play an outfield corner, and now that avenue is closed.
So let's just say (somehow) that the Mets rally for an improbable capture of the wild card. We know the Phillies are going to finish with the best record in the NL, but they can't play the wild card if it's the Mets. So whom would the Mets face in the NLDS???
Yes . . . Carlos Beltran, Tim Lincecum, and the San Francisco Giants.
Ain't baseball grand?
Ain't baseball grand?
:-)
I hate that saying so much.
I'm not quite sure how I should take this.
I'm not quite sure how I should take this.
I took it as a compliment and somewhat of a delusion, as I am in fact an idiot. Some might say, to borrow a phrase, the biggest idiot ever.
And now, after discussing my qualifications, I will put forth some opinions!
Beltran's defense has greatly improved over the course of the year, but I'm still not convinced he's covering a lot of ground out there. And his arm is not particularly special for a right fielder (plus for a center fielder, sure).
He certainly won't hurt a team out there, however.
This is an exaggeration. Matt LaPorta and Justin Smoak went in deadline deals in the last few years. Andy LaRoche. All were top 30 prospects. Must be some bigger ones in years past. Does the Bartolo Colon trade count (Brandon Phillips)?
Me too. It's nonsense.
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