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Monday, May 05, 2014

Berg: Is it time to worry about Derek Jeter?

If the scrotal abscess drainage procedure doesn’t go as planned…then yes.

Derek Jeter is off to a slow start in 2014. After a sub-standard April, the Yankees’ captain went 1-for-15 in his first three games in May, including the first 0-for-7 night of his career on Friday. He’s now hitting .240 on the season with a .311 on-base percentage and only three extra-base hits in 96 at-bats.

Despite the shortstop’s struggles, the Yankees sit in first place in the AL East after a 16-14 start. But Jeter’s offensive woes have fans and media debating whether he should be dropped in the batting order, and, more generally, if it’s time to worry about Derek Jeter.

No and no. It is not time to worry about Derek Jeter.

...If panicking about sports is your thing, then by all means, panic about Derek Jeter. But poor results over 24 games say precisely nothing about Jeter that we didn’t know entering the season. Citing them as evidence that he should be benched or dropped in the batting order is as silly as — or maybe even sillier than — suggesting Yangervis Solarte’s hot start makes him a surefire All-Star moving forward.

Coming up on his 40th birthday, Jeter is not by any means the hitter he was in his heyday. But reversion to the mean is a powerful force in baseball, and it’s still likely safer to bet on Jeter hitting like a capable MLB shortstop than a deadball-era backup catcher.

Revisit that, of course, if Jeter still hasn’t shown any signs of life by sometime in June. For now, give the guy a few weeks to get his timing together after missing nearly the entire 2013 season.

Repoz Posted: May 05, 2014 at 06:52 PM | 132 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Yastrzemski in left. Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4700696)
I noticed that 0-7 the other day. Ow.
   2. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:18 PM (#4700700)
No. It's long past time for that. Jeter was finished a year ago. As well worry about Roy Halladay.
   3. Publius Publicola Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:26 PM (#4700704)
No. One should never worry about Derek Jeter because Jeter can consume the Red Sox with fireballs from his eyes, and bolts of lightning from his arse.
   4. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:26 PM (#4700705)
He may be done and not that I like splitting data up this way but you're dealing with a small sample of 100 PA to begin with and he was hitting 292/378/333 a week ago before going 2-24, so I don't see why you wouldn't wait to see if he can push the average back up to .270. If he can do that with some walks then you can live with it. It's not like you have a great replacement and he's gone in 5 months anyway.

His power seems to have left him.
   5. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:29 PM (#4700708)
This is why I think relatively few position players have "goodbye tours" like Mariano did last year. Good management can create relatively good numbers from a relief pitcher, spotting him against players he'd be most likely to succeed against, giving him extra rest when needed, and the occasional relatively easy (for some people, not for me) saves.

I think an everyday player (or a most-of-the-time player) like Jeter is less easy to massage. Unless you PH for him late in games (which they don't do for Hall of Famers), it's very difficult to put him into matchup situations that are good for him. And if he's hitting .240 at the ASB, his lineup place is going to be extremely difficult to guarantee, particularly if Brendan Ryan is playing acceptably.
   6. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:29 PM (#4700709)
$60m for 2.4 WAR over 4 seasons, so far. At current pace total will be less than 2 WAR by retirement.

One wonders what Yankees could have spent that money on. 97, 95, 85, ....
   7. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:31 PM (#4700711)
I think "earn" or "deserve" are problematic words. But Jeter, through his career, has "earned" a few hundred ABs from the Yankees this year. A 2-24 stretch shouldn't bury him.
   8. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:31 PM (#4700712)
I think it was well understood by everyone involved when Jeter signed that contract that it (and, for that matter, the guaranteed lineup spot it implied) was primarily for past services rendered.
   9. Into the Void Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:35 PM (#4700714)
Buster Olney talked about this on his podcast this morning and was asking "what should be done" if this continues, which seemed a little silly...I mean Jeter could hit .180 all year and it's not like the Yankees are going to bench him or something.
   10. frannyzoo Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:37 PM (#4700716)
I mean Jeter could hit .180 all year and it's not like the Yankees are going to bench him or something.


..which is why this is going to be so beautiful. So freakin' beautiful.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:38 PM (#4700718)
Mid-season retirements
Mike Schmidt
Ken Griffey Jr.
John Kruk
Sarah Palin
   12. Publius Publicola Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:39 PM (#4700719)
He may be done and not that I like splitting data up this way but you're dealing with a small sample of 100 PA to begin with and he was hitting 292/378/333 a week ago before going 2-24, so I don't see why you wouldn't wait to see if he can push the average back up to .270.


I think it's quite possible the word has gotten around to all the pitchers that you don't have to be careful with him anymore, just pound him because he doesn't have any more power, his bat speed has eroded and he can't hurt you. His K rate has skyrocketed, for instance. He used to K about once every 7 PA's. Now it's more than 1 in 5.
   13. Publius Publicola Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4700722)
BTW, isn't watching Jeter suck really enjoyable? He's got a negative WAR after 24 games, below replacement level.

I certainly find it so.
   14. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4700723)
I mean Jeter could hit .180 all year and it's not like the Yankees are going to bench him or something.


At some point they'd start to ease him out of the lineup and he might even retire.

Mind you I think he can still hit .300 with some walks. I wouldn't bet on it, but it wouldn't surprise me. (That would be his 80th percentile PECOTA projection. They project him from .230 at the low end to .320 at the high end. 275/333/356 at the midpoint.)
   15. Srul Itza Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:47 PM (#4700725)
This is why I think relatively few position players have "goodbye tours" like Mariano did last year. Good management can create relatively good numbers from a relief pitcher, spotting him against players he'd be most likely to succeed against, giving him extra rest when needed, and the occasional relatively easy (for some people, not for me) saves.


Did you see anything like that in Mariano's last year? He pitched 64 innings, which is more than he did in 2010 or 2011, and was reasonably effective throughout. Not vintage Mariano, but not out of line with other closers.
   16. Publius Publicola Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:58 PM (#4700734)
Mind you I think he can still hit .300 with some walks.


No effin way, Ray. That PECOTA is based on pre-season, right? And has to be appropriately down-adjusted now, right?
   17. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 07:59 PM (#4700735)
It just went out of style, probably in part because few players play with the same team their whole Hall of Fame careers in the free agency era. The few who have (Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Chipper Jones come to mind) have gotten farewell tours. Not on the shrill, screeching level as Rivera's and Jeter's, of course, but those guys weren't sainted by the New York media.

Based on some of the literature I've read, before about... 1975 or so?... it used to be common for there to be a sort of farewell tour, and in particular a Day (Joe Schlabotnik Day, etc.), for retiring players, even some who weren't stars. And in some cases, perhaps to tip them off that, ahem, it's probably time to retire, Joe.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: May 05, 2014 at 08:00 PM (#4700736)
Nobody's really had trouble managing "farewell" tours. Not that we've really had that many. Ripken started 111 games in his final season -- give the guy a lot of starts at home and at least one start in each road series. For Griffey, in his final season, the plan from the start was to split DH with Sweeney and when it was obvious he was toast, he retired.

And I think that is part of the problem with Jeter. I'm sure their plan was to give him maybe 2/3 of the starts but the Ryan injury means he's starting 80% of the time.

The chances that Mariano would be done after the year off due to injury were quite high.

I'm not quite sold he's totally toast yet either. The K-rate has skyrocketed but his other peripherals look OK. The 303 BABIP isn't where he needs it to be (353 career) but it's hardly embarrassing and he's still hitting LDs. If he can get the K-rate under control he'll be non-embarrassing.

At the plate. Problem is he needs to hit a lot better than a typical sS to provide any value.

   19. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 08:09 PM (#4700742)
No effin way, Ray. That PECOTA is based on pre-season, right? And has to be appropriately down-adjusted now, right?


You can down-adjust it but 100 PA of .240 isn't moving the line by more than a few points. His 80th percentile is actually .305, and I doubt the 100 PA moves that down below .300.
   20. Good cripple hitter Posted: May 05, 2014 at 08:25 PM (#4700750)
For Griffey, in his final season, the plan from the start was to split DH with Sweeney and when it was obvious he was toast, he retired.


That's, uh, quite the polite way of describing the end to Griffey's career.
   21. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 08:35 PM (#4700758)
Everyone knew that Griffey Sr. was a good player but who would have guessed after JR's age-30 season that his father would outpace him from age 31 on? 8 WAR for JR after age 30; 12 WAR for SR.
   22. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 05, 2014 at 08:38 PM (#4700762)
Combining last year and this year, Jeter's hitting .220/.302/.264 over 180 PAs. It's over. It's always been over.
   23. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 08:56 PM (#4700775)
wow--what will Repoz do when Jeter retires and Chass dies? Ther'll be no more kneejerk posts in response. C'mon Repoz, it's time for some new paradigms
Cano-loafing?
Puig?
???

   24. Publius Publicola Posted: May 05, 2014 at 09:06 PM (#4700779)
You can down-adjust it but 100 PA of .240 isn't moving the line by more than a few points.


.240/.311/.271 sure is. A bad-fielding SS with an OPS+ approaching the Mendoza line is on the way out.

   25. Howie Menckel Posted: May 05, 2014 at 09:10 PM (#4700783)

5 bucks says Jeter can fall below .200 and even the cheeky NY Post won't go with a "EL CAPI-TOAST!" back page.

#kidgloves
   26. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 05, 2014 at 09:46 PM (#4700804)
Well, naturally, they're a newspaper. They don't want to risk losing access to the next scintillating Jeter quote.
   27. Ray (RDP) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 10:02 PM (#4700813)
Combining last year and this year, Jeter's hitting .220/.302/.264 over 180 PAs. It's over. It's always been over.


Last year's performance certainly doesn't help his outlook, but at the same time I don't think one could reasonably argue that he was healthy during those 80 PA last year, and therefore to me it seems dubious to just lump those PAs in. Not that it's invalid per se; I mean, we're just throwing out guesses here, not opining on anything important.
   28. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 05, 2014 at 10:07 PM (#4700818)
I doubt one can reasonably argue that he's healthy now, or ever likely will be again. Everyone's body has a point of no return. It is likely that Jeter's body reached its point in October of 2012.
   29. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 05, 2014 at 10:34 PM (#4700846)
As noted in #4, a Jeter was doing fine until about a week ago. Perhaps this is the end, or maybe it is a one-week slump. However, the folks here that have always taken the under on Jeter, going back more than a decade, are sure they're finally right this time. Perhaps, but the track record on such predictions isn't very good.
   30. Gotham Dave Posted: May 05, 2014 at 10:38 PM (#4700848)
5 bucks says Jeter can fall below .200 and even the cheeky NY Post won't go with a "EL CAPI-TOAST!" back page.
That's because it would be bad business. Unlike Mets fans, Yankees fans don't delight in hating their own stars.

Jeter's probably going to have a bad season, but I was pretty sure he was done in early 2011 too. And all the people dancing on his grave here were certain he was done. Broken ankle and a few more years don't help anything but I'm not going to say anything with any certainty beyond that he will not be on the team in 2015.
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: May 05, 2014 at 11:39 PM (#4700884)

Jeter slipped to a 90 OPS+ in 2010, then had a modest 100 in 2011, a surprisingly solid 114 in 159 G in 2012, then fell off the cliff last year and again of late.

So he's had one "surprise" in the last four seasons. He surprised me with one more typical season for him.

I guess someone could have taken the under as well on Jeter after a dip to 102 in 2008, when he turned 34 midseason, but that's not so old for a big star, even at SS. It's now that reverting to even a 100 OPS+ would be a surprise...
   32. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 05, 2014 at 11:47 PM (#4700889)
It just went out of style, probably in part because few players play with the same team their whole Hall of Fame careers in the free agency era.

One-team HoFers have never been common, even in the "Golden Age." (defined however you define "Golden Age.")
   33. Blastin Posted: May 06, 2014 at 12:05 AM (#4700899)
So of course he has two hits, including a double, tonight.
   34. Gamingboy Posted: May 06, 2014 at 12:16 AM (#4700902)

So of course he has two hits, including a double, tonight.


Tomorrow: "Has Jeter Returned To His Old Form?"
   35. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 06, 2014 at 12:21 AM (#4700906)
So of course he has two hits, including a double, tonight.

The Angel fans also cheered Jeter on each at bat. Guess they didn't get the memo about hating on visiting players.
   36. Rob_Wood Posted: May 06, 2014 at 06:28 AM (#4700952)

not trying to pile on, but his defense has been, um, not good
   37. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: May 06, 2014 at 07:28 AM (#4700958)
I mean Jeter could hit .180 all year and it's not like the Yankees are going to bench him or something.


From your lips to God's ears.
   38. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: May 06, 2014 at 07:39 AM (#4700959)
One-team HoFers have never been common, even in the "Golden Age." (defined however you define "Golden Age.")


This is true, but they are certainly less common now than before 1980.
   39. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 06, 2014 at 07:43 AM (#4700961)
There are also fewer 13-team Hall of Famers playing today than in 1980.
   40. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:13 AM (#4700964)
I mean, we're just throwing out guesses here, not opining on anything important.


I think you just summed up BTF there. As well as the rest of the internet.
   41. Lassus Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:19 AM (#4700965)
Unlike Mets fans, Yankees fans don't delight in hating their own stars.

Robbie Cano. Who even St. Mariano trashed in his book, apparently.
   42. DKDC Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:32 AM (#4700970)
Jeter has been done for about 5 years, it was just masked by that one year he beat out a bunch of infield hits.

Speaking of preseason comeback player of the year candidates - after 50 articles a day in March and early April, it’s been a while since I’ve heard a peep out of sportswriters about Grady Sizemore. What’s he up to these days?
   43. TJ Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:53 AM (#4700974)

Speaking of preseason comeback player of the year candidates - after 50 articles a day in March and early April, it’s been a while since I’ve heard a peep out of sportswriters about Grady Sizemore. What’s he up to these days?


.224 with an OPS in the .600's...and I was tired of all those Comeback Player of the Year stories, too...

   44. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:13 AM (#4700979)
Silly question that I am for some incomprehensible reason seriously interested in the answer to: Were he a pitcher, would the patented spin-jump-throw be a balk?
   45. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:22 AM (#4700989)
So of course he has two hits, including a double, tonight.

He switched to a lighter walker.
   46. zonk Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:29 AM (#4700992)
I remember when Schmidt retired -- end of May, IIRC -- there's maybe no better signpost for the cynicism of aging... When Schmidt announced he was done, it felt like a gut punch to a 16 yo kid who didn't even like the Phillies and spent plenty of his youth dreading Schmidt PAs at Wrigley. Now, I feel like a vulture waiting for Jeter to slip under .200 and get run out of town.
   47. bunyon Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:31 AM (#4700993)
I remember when Schmidt retired -- end of May, IIRC -- there's maybe no better signpost for the cynicism of aging... When Schmidt announced he was done, it felt like a gut punch to a 16 yo kid who didn't even like the Phillies and spent plenty of his youth dreading Schmidt PAs at Wrigley. Now, I feel like a vulture waiting for Jeter to slip under .200 and get run out of town.

Yep.
   48. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:33 AM (#4700997)
Yankees fans don't delight in hating their own stars.

Alex Rodriguez neighgates that notion.
   49. Dale Sams Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:26 AM (#4701037)
Silly question that I am for some incomprehensible reason seriously interested in the answer to: Were he a pitcher, would the patented spin-jump-throw be a balk?


I don't think so, he's just stepping off the rubber.
   50. base ball chick Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:38 AM (#4701045)
astros went through this with the craig biggio Farewell Tour back in 07.
everyone immediately forgets astros stars

i know it was for him to reach the 3000 hits and then immediately be inducted into the Hall (fat chance, now that the writers are all talking about his roid use because of his large muscular body, enlarged head and the presence of roger clemens on the team years after he had had his best years which proves he shot up)

but he should have been benched for most out of town games seeing as how he hit like a pitcher only worse on the road. and he wasn't exactly good at home. it was pitiful. but fortunately, no one noticed and heda made it into the Hall, if it hadn't been for that meddling chass exposiing him for the obvious druggie he was
   51. Rob_Wood Posted: May 06, 2014 at 10:49 AM (#4701057)

biggio hit .251 with 31 doubles and 10 home runs in his last roundup. jeter does not seem likely to reach even those pedestrian heights. not everyone can bow out like ted williams.
   52. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 11:27 AM (#4701113)

This is true, but they are certainly less common now than before 1980.


As a percentage of Hall of Famers, it really isn't. Compared to all Hall of Fame players, post FA-players have been more likely to play their entire career for one franchise than guys who played before the advent of free agency. Now, if you simply limit it to the guys who played after 1900 (since none of those guys played their entire career in one place), then it's about the same, at slightly above 20 percent (slightly edge to the pre-FA era).

There have been nine one-team Hall of Famers who played in the post FA era*, with five more waiting in the wings (Jones, Rivera, Jeter, Bagwell and Biggio) plus three more potential Vet's picks (Edgar, Tram and Whitaker). That will likely keep the percentage near the historical, post 1900 norm.

* I excluded Brooks, who retired in 1977, but included Yaz, Pops and Bench, who could have taken advantage if they'd been inclined.
   53. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 06, 2014 at 11:49 AM (#4701149)
There was an era when superstars were more likely to spend their career with one team, extending roughly from Lou Gehrig to Mickey Mantle. In between you had DiMaggio, Musial, Williams, a few others.
It became less common after that - but it wasn't common before then, either. Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Mathewson, Anson, Lajoie, Alexander... of the first ten playing inductees into the Hall of Fame, only Walter Johnson spent his career with one team.
   54. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4701192)
Here's the list (I may have missed one or two), including HoFer, year of debut and team:

Only a few before Gehrig. There have actually been 12 since the FA-era started (I didn't include Palmer in the overlapping guys and two others).

Walter Johnson, 1907, Senators
Red Faber, 1914, White Sox
Ross Youngs, 1917, Giants
Pie Traynor, 1920, Pirates
Ted Lyons, 1923, White Sox
Bill Terry, 1923 Giants
Lou Gehrig, 1923, Yankees
Earle Combs, 1924, Yankees
Charlie Gehringer, 1924, Tigers
Mel Ott, 1926, Giants
Bill Dickey, 1928, Yankees
Carl Hubbell, 1928, Giants
Luke Appling, 1930, White Sox
Bob Feller, 1936, Indians
Joe Dimaggio, 1936 Yankees
Pee Wee Reese, 1940, Dodgers
Stan Musial, 1941, Cardinals
Bob Lemon, 1941, Indians
Phil Rizzuto, 1941, Yankees
Jackie Robinson, 1947, Dodgers
Roy Campanella, 1948, Dodgers
Whitey Ford, 1950, Yankees
Mickey Mantle, 1951, Yankees
Al Kaline, 1953, Tigers
Ernie Banks, 1953, Cubs
Brooks Robinson, 1955 Orioles
Sandy Koufax, 1955, Dodgers
Roberto Clemente, 1955, Pirates
Bill Mazeroski, 1956, Pirates
Don Drysdale, 1956, Dodgers
Bob Gibson, 1959, Cardinals
Carl Yazstremski, 1961, Red Sox
Willie Stargell, 1962, Pirates
Jim Palmer, 1966, Orioles
Johnny Bench, 1967, Reds
Mike Schmidt, 1972, Phillies
Robin Yount, 1974, Brewers
Jim Rice, 1974, Red Sox
George Brett, 1973, Royals
Cal Ripken, 1981, Orioles
Tony Gwynn, 1982, Padres
Kirby Puckett, 1984, Twins
Barry Larkin, 1986, Reds

Debuts by decade:
Aughts - 1
Teens - 2
Twenties - 9
Thirties - 3
Forties - 6
Fifties - 10
Sixties - 4
Seventies - 4
Eighties - 4

Yankees have 7 and Dodgers five.

The nineties will produce five for sure, plus outside chances at a few more (Williams and Posada can't be ruled out). There could also be a few more to come from the 70s and 80s.

Keep in mind, because the Veterans Committee hasn't really touched the last three decades yet (Santo being the sole exception as a player-only inductee), the number of Hall of Famers from 1960 on is quite smaller than the number from the previous decades.
   55. BDC Posted: May 06, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4701231)
Interesting lists, SoSH. There's also the occasional great player whose time with a second team, at beginning or end of his career, was so negligible that he is a one-team HOFer for all practical purposes. Yogi Berra comes to mind, as does Ryne Sandberg.
   56. Publius Publicola Posted: May 06, 2014 at 01:32 PM (#4701242)
You missed the Splinter and Doerr, SoSH.
   57. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4701259)
Ted was lost during the copying/editing/pasting process. Bobby was an oversight.

That makes five in the 30s.
   58. AROM Posted: May 06, 2014 at 02:43 PM (#4701316)
Interesting lists, SoSH. There's also the occasional great player whose time with a second team, at beginning or end of his career, was so negligible that he is a one-team HOFer for all practical purposes. Yogi Berra comes to mind, as does Ryne Sandberg.


I would also give an exception to Aaron and Mays - start with one team, move along with the franchise to a new city, then finish up with a new franchise in the original city.
   59. AROM Posted: May 06, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4701324)
The nineties will produce five for sure, plus outside chances at a few more (Williams and Posada can't be ruled out).


Jeter, Mo, Chipper, Bagwell, ???
   60. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 02:52 PM (#4701325)
And some would argue for Wagner and Clarke.

But no exceptions. You want to be a one-teamer (or one franchiser), you can't get any PT for some other outfit, regardless the reason.

Jeter, Mo, Chipper, Bagwell, ???

Good catch. I didn't bother to look up the debut dates for the not yets, so I was rolling Biggio (1988) in with them.
   61. An Athletic in Powderhorn™ Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:04 PM (#4701351)
If you ignore the NA Anson qualifies too. I think he's the only 19th-century guy who does.
   62. BDC Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:12 PM (#4701360)
start with one team, move along with the franchise to a new city

Drysdale and Koufax are the only HOFers who qualify as one-teamers this way (never moved to another team), right? Campanella, sadly, did not.

Some future Primates will be marveling over how Jose Altuve was a one-team HOFer despite switching leagues.
   63. BDC Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4701373)
Pitchers get rarer as the decades pass – I guess in addition to all the other factors, it happens sometimes that a pitcher simply becomes useless, disappears, and resurfaces with another team for a stretch – the Robin Roberts phenomenon. And they usually think they can come back – Jim Palmer tried even after years away, albeit with the Orioles. Now that would have been an asterisk: guy makes the Hall of Fame solely as an Oriole and then comes back for a cup of coffee with Seattle or something.
   64. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:22 PM (#4701385)
Pitchers get rarer as the decades pass – I guess in addition to all the other factors, it happens sometimes that a pitcher simply becomes useless, disappears, and resurfaces with another team for a stretch – the Robin Roberts phenomenon. And they usually think they can come back – Jim Palmer tried even after years away, albeit with the Orioles. Now that would have been an asterisk: guy makes the Hall of Fame solely as an Oriole and then comes back for a cup of coffee with Seattle or something.


Rivera obviously is the exception, though relievers are probably even less likely to pull this off.

Smoltz made a good run, but hung around for that ugly final season in Boston (and modest rebound in St. Loo).

Brad Radke had a nice 12-year-run in Minny. No one else jumps to mind in the last 20 years.
   65. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:50 PM (#4701426)
Brad Radke had a nice 12-year-run in Minny. No one else jumps to mind in the last 20 years.

Not a pitcher, but Jim Gantner has to have the most nondescript long one-team career of anyone. Seventeen years of hitting infrequent singles for the Brewers. One season of OPS+ > 100 (1983, 107).
   66. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4701436)

Not a pitcher, but Jim Gantner has to have the most nondescript long one-team career of anyone. Seventeen years of hitting infrequent singles for the Brewers. One season of OPS+ > 100 (1983, 107).


At least he could pick it at second. Eddie Kranepool had no noteworthy skill, but carved out a swell 18-year stint with the Mets.

The strangest one-team career in recent memory was Scot Shields, who managed a 10-year run with the Angels as a middle reliever. That's unusual.

   67. Jeltzandini Posted: May 06, 2014 at 04:29 PM (#4701476)
Not a pitcher, but Jim Gantner has to have the most nondescript long one-team career of anyone. Seventeen years of hitting infrequent singles for the Brewers. One season of OPS+ > 100 (1983, 107)


Yes, other than that year he was consistently at the "not good, doesn't quite suck" level for a very long time. A long career of being like the 17th best 2B in a 26 team league.

In one of the Abstracts, James talked about a player who (paraphrasing) "you pencil in the lineup for years and forget about, but then you look and realize he's not actually doing much to help you win games." Was it Gantner?
   68. Moeball Posted: May 06, 2014 at 04:40 PM (#4701486)
He’s now hitting .240 on the season with a .311 on-base percentage and only three extra-base hits in 96 at-bats


Still significantly better than most of the Padres lineup (sigh).
   69. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 06, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4701522)
Was it Gantner?

I think it was either him or Rick Manning.
   70. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 06, 2014 at 05:32 PM (#4701536)
Eddie Kranepool had no noteworthy skill, but carved out a swell 18-year stint with the Mets.

as far as I can tell, his noteworthy skill was being an original Met
   71. Walt Davis Posted: May 06, 2014 at 05:59 PM (#4701557)
The VC effect on this is hard to factor in. I wonder if there's any evidence that they show bias towards one-team players? Anyway, players whose career was (nearly) entirely in the FA era didn't start retiring until the early 1990s which means the VC is only now starting to look at them.

Anyway, I do wish P-I allowed me to toss out VC HoF selections or at least Frisch VC selections or something.

Another way to slice it I suppose is to look at the rate of HoFers who had more than X WAR with 2 or more teams or less than Y% of their total WAR with their main team. I'm not sure you'd see anything different but the difference between the FA era and the reserve era is the difference between a star player choosing to switch teams in his prime vs. a team being dumb/brave enough to trade a star in his prime. If there is any hope for humanity, the former has to be happening more often than the latter.

(OK, technically you'd want to ignore modern trades of a player about to reach FA in you assessment of whether there is hope for humanity.)

   72. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 06:08 PM (#4701566)
I think it was either him or Rick Manning.


I believe he described Jerry Remy as a quiet little drain on your efforts, or something similar.

   73. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 06, 2014 at 06:36 PM (#4701587)
"a quiet, effective little drain on the Red Sox efforts"
(for some reason this description has stuck with me for all these years)
   74. Publius Publicola Posted: May 06, 2014 at 07:03 PM (#4701598)
It was indeed Jerry Remy. Stuck with me too because I used to argue with my baseball fan friends that he wasn't that good and got all kinds of pushback about it. He'd hit the ball smack dab on the lapels and the result would be nothing more than a routine flyout. But his average was decent and he didn't strike out much so he got a pass.
   75. CrosbyBird Posted: May 06, 2014 at 07:04 PM (#4701600)
You can down-adjust it but 100 PA of .240 isn't moving the line by more than a few points. His 80th percentile is actually .305, and I doubt the 100 PA moves that down below .300.

Jeter is on pace for around 47 walks which is comparable to 2011 or 2012. Let's say he gets another 400 AB on the season. He's got to bat around .313 for the rest of the season to finish .300. Not impossible but probably pretty long odds.
   76. AROM Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:11 PM (#4701642)
The strangest one-team career in recent memory was Scot Shields, who managed a 10-year run with the Angels as a middle reliever. That's unusual.


I miss him, the bullpen has generally sucked ever since he got hurt and lost the ability to throw strikes.
   77. madvillain Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:28 PM (#4701647)
Not impossible but probably pretty long odds.


I will bet everything I own, which might add up to 1/10000 of Jeter's net worth, that he won't hit .313 the rest of the year. Hell, I'd bet he won't even hit 280 the rest of the year.
   78. Curse of the Andino Posted: May 06, 2014 at 08:36 PM (#4701656)
I'd though Ripken's final season was even worse than it was. Only showing him at -.6 WAR. Recall him being embarrassing at the plate there. Jeter's OPS+ of 71 just beats Ripken's farewell 70, but Cal did have some defensive value at 3b.
   79. Eric L Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:01 PM (#4701668)
as far as I can tell, his noteworthy skill was being an original Met


If you look, He had a 6 year peak that Ike Davis would have been happy to have. But he was a platoon player when they had deeper benches and could afford to platoon, and the offensive environment was brutal.
   80. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:10 PM (#4701671)
Terry Harmon had a 10 year, 2.0 WAR career for the Phillies.
   81. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:12 PM (#4701675)
as far as I can tell, his noteworthy skill was being an original Met
If you look, He had a 6 year peak that Ike Davis would have been happy to have. But he was a platoon player when they had deeper benches and could afford to platoon, and the offensive environment was brutal.

because he started at age 17, everything is chronologically skewed with Kranepool--he played 18 years, so you would think, he must have retired at age 40 or so--nope--he was 34 in his last season. When the Mets tried to send him down to the minors in 1970, he was 25 years old and in his 9th season with the club
   82. Eric L Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:28 PM (#4701685)
because he started at age 17, everything is chronologically skewed with Kranepool--he played 18 years, so you would think, he must have retired at age 40 or so--nope--he was 34 in his last season. When the Mets tried to send him down to the minors in 1970, he was 25 years old and in his 9th season with the club


Agreed, It is odd to think of 71-76 as his peak, but it was, and is clearly in line with the expected age for a peak.

BTW, He was sent down in 1970 for 2 months. Hodges (rightly) never thought much of his work ethic or attitude and thought it needed a fixing. Looks like he got it.
   83. Walt Davis Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:37 PM (#4701689)
It's interesting to think what Kranepool might have become under different circumstances (i.e. not rushed for PR reasons). At 19 he put up a 100 OPS+ in the majors. I'm pretty sure the prospect guys around here would salivate over that. There are only 24 19-year-olds to even get to 300 PA much less a 100 OPS+. He's not far off Griffey (108) and ahead of Yount, Staub, Cavaretta and Kaline. Granted he's also a smidgen behind Renteria, just ahead of Freddie Lindstrom. Even at 20, Aaron was just 104, Boog Powell 95, Sheffield 82.

And speak of the devil, Rick Manning at 101 at age 20. Baseball is a funny game ... age 20, Manning vs Rickey:

RM 285/347/358, 101 OPS+, 19/11 SB
RH 274/338/336, 88 OPS+, 33/11 SB

Manning added solid defense and put up 2.3 WAR in 535 PA. Rickey put up allegedly terrible defense (-14) and -1 WAR in 400 PA. Even if you zero out the defense he was only just above replacement.
   84. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 06, 2014 at 09:42 PM (#4701697)
His 6-year peak amounted to about 7 WAR (or almost double his total). He was no Jim Gantner.

   85. Cooper Nielson Posted: May 07, 2014 at 01:32 AM (#4701821)
I will bet everything I own, which might add up to 1/10000 of Jeter's net worth, that he won't hit .313 the rest of the year. Hell, I'd bet he won't even hit 280 the rest of the year.

That's a risky bet. He could go 1 for 3 and then break his ankle again. (But I suppose you could always pull a Greg Brady "exact words" argument and claim that he didn't hit .313 or even .280 -- he hit .333.)
   86. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 07, 2014 at 01:40 AM (#4701823)
And they usually think they can come back – Jim Palmer tried even after years away, albeit with the Orioles. Now that would have been an asterisk: guy makes the Hall of Fame solely as an Oriole and then comes back for a cup of coffee with Seattle or something.

I'm pretty sure that Jose Rijo was the only person to get further major league playing time after having gotten a Hall of Fame vote.
   87. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 07, 2014 at 02:28 AM (#4701829)
I'm pretty sure that Jose Rijo was the only person to get further major league playing time after having gotten a Hall of Fame vote.


In the structured ballot era. A number of guys got them when voters just threw names out there (Dimaggio in 45, Gehrig, Foxx and others in 1936).

   88. baxter Posted: May 07, 2014 at 03:05 AM (#4701837)
@ 54 Addie Joss
@ 62 Pee Wee Reese played for Brooklyn and Los Angeles Dodgers.
   89. baxter Posted: May 07, 2014 at 07:35 AM (#4701850)
@54 Travis Jackson
   90. Hal Chase School of Professionalism Posted: May 07, 2014 at 07:58 AM (#4701860)
I think it was either him or Rick Manning.


Rick Manning looked the part, and was always awesome defensively. The assumption was he would eventually start hitting. He was hitting something, but it was Eck's wife.

Gantner was from Wisconsin, too. Never underestimate that appeal to Brewers fans.
   91. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 07, 2014 at 10:25 AM (#4701941)
Thanks Baxter, I'll add them to my list.

   92. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 07, 2014 at 10:45 PM (#4702674)
Jeter scored a run in the 1st inning tonight, passing Tris Speaker for 12th all-time, and then homered in the 2nd. NOT. DEAD. YET.
   93. JoeHova Posted: May 08, 2014 at 04:37 AM (#4702720)
Not a pitcher, but Jim Gantner has to have the most nondescript long one-team career of anyone. Seventeen years of hitting infrequent singles for the Brewers. One season of OPS+ > 100 (1983, 107).


The really strange thing was the hype he got. Sure, he was ok, but people always included him in the discussion with Yount and Molitor. It's like if people today always talked about the Thunder's Big 3 of Durant, Westbrook, and Nick Collison.

Also, a lot of fans want Gantner's number 17 retired. I actually suspect that the team will do it at some point because they informally already have. Nobody has worn it since he retired. They let people wear Fingers and Molitor's numbers after they left, but Gantner's number is apparently sacrosanct. It worries me.
   94. JE (Jason) Posted: May 08, 2014 at 05:10 AM (#4702721)
NOT. DEAD. YET.

LOL, Clapper. Your excitement over Jeter's very first long ball of the season sounds a bit too much like a few of our lefty OTP thread friends who get gleeful over an outlier poll showing POTUS with brighter job approval numbers.
   95. Bunny Vincennes Posted: May 08, 2014 at 08:56 AM (#4702761)
Gantner was from Wisconsin, too. Never underestimate that appeal to Brewers fans.


They are the dumbest fans in baseball. Just waiting for the Packers. Nothing like getting hammered in a parking lot and spending the entire game leaving their seat to get more beer. If you want to watch the game buy middle of the row seats. And, they have no control over their children.
   96. Lassus Posted: May 08, 2014 at 08:58 AM (#4702763)
NOT. DEAD. YET.

Calling to mind that Monty Python scene doesn't really help your case.
   97. Publius Publicola Posted: May 08, 2014 at 09:24 AM (#4702780)
Every upward datapoint in Jeter's slash line is Clapper's MLB version of his political polls. He somehow manages to skip the days on Jeter's O'fers.
   98. Don Malcolm Posted: May 08, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4702892)
Ed Kranepool couldn't hit lefties, and spent more time cultivating his outside interests in his early years than he did trying to address his weaknesses. That's probably why he plateaued in 66-69: he was too busy being a stockbroker. He probably qualifies to be a member of the Joe Kehoskie All-Stars.

He changed his tune after Gil Hodges cut him. No one claimed him on waivers, so he went to Tidewater and applied himself, made it back to the bigs and was a good bit better from then on. He also became a terrific pinch-hitter after previously making the giant suck sound in that capacity. Over five years (1974-78) he hit .396/.440/.590 coming off the bench.
   99. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 08, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4702893)
I will just repeat that outside of one really bad week (that seems to have ended with the posting of this thread) Jeter has been OK this season, as was noted all the way back in #4. Now perhaps that bad week is going to be indicative of something, but small sample size suggests some caution in making that assessment. Not sure why the fan-boy haters ignore that, but they have done it before. Jeter is still the Yankees best option at SS.
   100. Publius Publicola Posted: May 08, 2014 at 01:05 PM (#4702908)
I will just repeat that outside of one really bad week (that seems to have ended with the posting of this thread) Jeter has been OK this season, as was noted all the way back in #4.


Who would you rather have play SS for you right now, Clapper? Jeter or Bogaerts?
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