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Saturday, October 20, 2018

Best 2018-19 Hot Stove value may be in trade

Let’s make a deal!

Jim Furtado Posted: October 20, 2018 at 08:12 AM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: team building, trades

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: October 20, 2018 at 06:08 PM (#5771767)
Problems with the opening premise of the article. This is too broad a definition of "value acquired by trade." The list includes:

a) mid-season rentals like Machado, Moustakas, Pearce, etc. That's got nothing to do with offseason trades or building a team.

b) Guys who have been extended beyond when the traded-for contract would have expired: Porcello, Rich Hill at least. Those players were acquired for 2018 (and beyond) via money.

c) Players who were either throw-ins or parts of minor deals nobody paid attention to: Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Muncy, Kike Hernandez, Ryan Pressly, Brock Holt. I'm pretty sure Josh Hader was the #3 guy in that trade.

Point (c) raises another issue. The article then goes on to list some potential trade targets with the apparent notion that the team acquiring the "big name" player will get the benefit. But it's just as likely to be the team trading the "big name" player that will get the benefit, sometimes from the relative unknowns in the deal, sometimes from the big prospect.

By the very nature of these trades, either the acquiring team is giving up roughly equal current talent or potentially superior future talent. Or the bejillion deals that are "we've got this OK prospect who we will have to rule 5 or is going to be a minor-league FA, but you can use him now, can we have one of your pre-40-man OK prospects in return" and related deals that usually result in nothing for either team but occasionally a team hits the jackpot. Trades are more about the timing of value than the quantity.

So sure, a good chunk of this season's value was produced by big name players acquired in the last couple of offseasons ... but a lot of it was also produced by the guys traded away in similar deals 5 years ago. All a team gets to decide this offseason is whether it makes more sense for them to try to be in group 1 for 2019-20 or group 2 for 2021-24.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: October 20, 2018 at 06:44 PM (#5771770)
As Walt points out, the simplification of the table "players acquired by trade" doesn't really cover the entire spectrum of trade acquisations. and on top of that, in a way it double counts trades...

In simplest terms, let's say team A trades a player who is a 4 war player for his new team, and they acquire a guy who is 3 war, by this chart that is a 7 war+ because of trades.... not the 1 war advantage for team B.

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