People of MLB…I came here to give you these facts. It is no concern of ours how you run your own team, but if you threaten to extend your ignorance, this league of yours will be reduced to a burned-out cinder. Your choice is simple: join us and live in enlightenment, or pursue your present course and face obliteration. We shall be waiting for your answer. The decision rests with you.
Some general manager is about to make a critical mistake.
Last season Jon Garland had a tRA of 5.74, or 0.01 runs better than a replacement level starter’s ERA (0.36 better tRA), over 196.7 innings pitched. That works out to about eight runs (non-leveraged), making Garland a 0.8 WAR pitcher, worth less than 4.4 million last season, and nearing 30 years old. Since 2003, Garland hasn’t posted a single tRA* under 4.75, and only one tRA under 4.75, that came in 2006. Despite this, he finished sixth in the 2005 Cy Young voting, largely due to 18 wins.
It appears Garland is a 5 run pitcher at absolute best, and that’s barely over replacement level. Anything more than 4.4 annually is overpaying for him, but the odds are he’ll get double that this off-season, and possibly a deal similar to Kyle Lohse’s 4/41. That’s simply unacceptable for any team, even the Red Sox (who are smart enough to not even call) or the Yankees (who probably won’t consider him.)
...So, which team steps on this landmine?
Posted: November 27, 2008 at 02:58 PM | 25 comment(s)
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