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Monday, July 07, 2008

Beyond the Box Score: Bendix: Has Johan Santana Gotten Worse?

Oh no!...Oh no! This is more shocking than Jason Belmonte’s approach to bowling!

First of all, Johan’s strikeouts are still “down.” While 109 strikeouts in 121 innings is nothing to sneeze at, it’s well down from Johan’s rate over the last several seasons (the last time Johan struck out less than a batter an inning was way back in 2001). This is even more troublesome given the fact that Johan is now pitching in the National League, and thus gets to face the pitcher (or a pinch hitter) three or four times a game, as well as generally weaker competition (as evidenced by the American League’s domination in interleague play).

Additionally, Santana’s walk rate is up (albeit slightly). He has walked 2.38 per nine this season, after walking 2.14, 1.81, and 1.75 per nine in each of the last three seasons, respectively. This is not a huge jump, but considering the drop in strikeouts and move to the easier league, it is not a particularly good sign for Santana.

Perhaps of more concern is Santana’s velocity, which is down. This season, according to Fangraphs, his average fastball velocity is 91.2 MPH. Last year his fastball averaged 91.7, and in the previous two seasons it averaged 93.1 and 92.4 MPH. Interestingly, Santana’s changeup velocity has also decreased from 81.9 and 81.8 MPH over the previous two seasons, to 79.9 MPH this season. Additionally, the velocity of Johan’s slider is down, and he is using it less frequently than in the past.

Repoz Posted: July 07, 2008 at 01:15 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: mets, sabermetrics

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1. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: July 07, 2008 at 02:16 PM (#2847046)

It's obvious the Mets should stop babying Santana

2. Cris E Posted: July 07, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#2847172)

Folks were getting on Johan in MN last year about not throwing his slider, going to the change too often and consequently giving up more HR. It's obviously not that simple, but he was catching flak for it from several quarters. Another conjecture was that when he saw his pal Liriano's elbow detonate he became wary of throwing the slider as often. Whatever: it kept batters off his change, which made a very good pitch even better.

3. billyshears Posted: July 07, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2847180)

Santana has been very good for the Mets, but he has not yet looked dominant at any time.

4. BeanoCook Posted: July 07, 2008 at 04:36 PM (#2847183)

I thihk very good is correct. It seems MLB fans have a need to crown a great pitcher. But the fact is, there are a dozen or so very good pitchers, but none great right now. CC, Santana, Lackey, Webb, all very good (even near great), but not Great! Certainly not like the greatness we have seen recently, Maddux, Pedro, Clemens. Nothing wrong with very good, but some fans need to realize the difference.

5. bfan Posted: July 07, 2008 at 04:46 PM (#2847194)

as long as the agents for very good pitchers and the owners also recognize that the top-level pitcher is, relative to his peers, only very good, it will all work out fine. Of course, all very good pitchers have to do is point to Barry Zito's contract, as a base-line.

6. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: July 07, 2008 at 04:57 PM (#2847212)

Is there going to be one of these articles after every Santana outing? I feel like I've read this article already. Many times.

7. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: July 07, 2008 at 05:15 PM (#2847233)

Certainly not like the greatness we have seen recently, Maddux, Pedro, Clemens. Nothing wrong with very good, but some fans need to realize the difference.

Yeah, this new crop of pitchers is like the crop of guys who came after all the great pitchers from the 70's. They just pale in comparison. Lincecum might turn out to be the exception.

8. AROM Posted: July 07, 2008 at 05:39 PM (#2847265)

I thihk very good is correct. It seems MLB fans have a need to crown a great pitcher. But the fact is, there are a dozen or so very good pitchers, but none great right now. CC, Santana, Lackey, Webb, all very good (even near great), but not Great!

True. I nominate Kazmir and Lincecum as the next kings. But they aren't quite there yet.

9. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 07, 2008 at 05:46 PM (#2847275)

Lincecum may not be there yet in that he hasn't proved it over the long haul, but Jesus Cristo, is he ever some kind of pitcher right now.

10. Infinite Yost (Voxter)

Posted: July 07, 2008 at 05:48 PM (#2847279)

I just think baseball will never be the same. It's ruined. These new guys and their new-fangled not being quite as good! A pox on them!

11. Moneyball can't buy you love (Joey B.) Posted: July 07, 2008 at 05:58 PM (#2847285)

Harden looks like he'd be at that super-elite level if he was durable, but alas, he may never get there.

12. salfino Posted: July 07, 2008 at 06:00 PM (#2847288)

Oh no!...Oh no! This is more shocking than Jason Belmonte’s approach to bowling!

Simple fix: Johan has to pitch with the ball in both hands. Let's see managers matchup against that!

13. Repoz

Posted: July 07, 2008 at 06:15 PM (#2847300)

Simple fix: Johan has to pitch with the ball in both hands.

I believe Dave LaRoche perfected that with his Larry LaLaub pitch.

14. Esoteric Posted: July 07, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#2847323)

Felix Hernandez is one of the only pitchers I've seen in baseball right now who has the raw tools to actually be GREAT, as in Clemens/Pedro great. The stuff, the speed, the variety, the indomitable bulldog mentality, the ability to hit first-pitch grand slams...it's all there. But I worry that he'll never put that all quite together - his overreliance on his fastball is holding him back right now. And of course, I'm always scared to death that he'll get hurt again.

15. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: July 07, 2008 at 06:40 PM (#2847327)

Good call on Felix. Talent-wise, Kazmir, Hamels, Lincecum, Joba, Felix, Volquez could all be great pitchers. It just reinforces how spoiled we've been by the Johnson/Pedro/Clemens/Maddux era.

16. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2847360)

We've been so spoiled that 300 game winner Glavine is rarely mentioned as one of the best pitchers of that era. It's usually the Big 4 and no one else.

17. James SC Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#2847365)

I am sorry, but Johan was definitely a "great" pitcher for a good 4 years in MN, whether or not his career will be great is if he recovers that form for the next 4-6 years or not and then tacks on some good years after that. But Johan's was one of the best ever for a stretch of 4 years there, the fact that he is just "very good" this year is disappointing to Mets fans, but should not cheapen his domination earlier.

18. Conor Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#2847371)

I am sorry, but Johan was definitely a "great" pitcher for a good 4 years in MN, whether or not his career will be great is if he recovers that form for the next 4-6 years or not and then tacks on some good years after that. But Johan's was one of the best ever for a stretch of 4 years there,

Was he really? Just using ERA+, he had a 4 year stretch if 148,182, 155, 161. That's great, but does that 4 year stretch put him as one of the best ever? Pedro had a stretch of 219,163,243,291,189,202,210. That's a stretch twice as long where he had 7 years better than the best of Johan. To pick a random 4 year stretch for Randy, he had 186,181,188,197. Maddux 166,171,271,262,162,189,187. That blows Santana out of the water.

Santana strikes me as more of a run of the mill best pitcher in the game (if such a thing exists) than a best ever type of guy.

19. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:29 PM (#2847383)

We've been so spoiled that 300 game winner Glavine is rarely mentioned as one of the best pitchers of that era. It's usually the Big 4 and no one else.

Or a 3000 strike out pitcher like Curt Schilling. Those 4 guys are so great, they make other great pitchers seem ordinary. They had such different styles and temperaments, as well. AND they did in in a high octane era for offense. We may never again see anything like it.

20. RJ in TO Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:41 PM (#2847398)

Or a 3000 strike out pitcher like Curt Schilling.

Or Mike Mussina, who has also put together a pretty darn respectable career. Or John Smoltz, who also knows a little bit about the art of pitching.

21. PreservedFish Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:45 PM (#2847401)

...

22. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: July 07, 2008 at 07:46 PM (#2847402)

You know who has been pretty amazing as well? Mariano. The guy has had a career of ridicously good seasons at a position in which sustained dominance is hardly ever seen. He's 38 years old and he's having arguably his best year. He's 38 and there's still not another closer I'd rather have over the next three seasons.

When will his reign of terror end? The guy seems impervious to the ravages of time.

23. AROM Posted: July 07, 2008 at 08:14 PM (#2847435)

You know who has been pretty amazing as well? Mariano.

He looks as great as ever right now. Seems like this is the first time in awhile he's completely free of nagging injuries.

The group of young guns seem like they can become the quality of Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling, but unless someone takes a big leap forward, there's nobody right now who looks to touch the big 4. It could happen. Say Lincecum can cut his walks down to about 2 per 9 without becoming more hittable, he might be the next Pedro.

24. RJ in TO Posted: July 07, 2008 at 08:35 PM (#2847459)

The group of young guns seem like they can become the quality of Smoltz, Mussina, and Schilling, but unless someone takes a big leap forward, there's nobody right now who looks to touch the big 4.

Well, you do have to remember that one of the big 4 didn't really become a member until his late 20s/early 30s. Randy Johnson, for a long time, sure didn't look like someone who would eventually belong in the discussion of greatest LHP of all time.

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Beyond the Box Score: Bendix: Has Johan Santana Gotten Worse?

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