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Monday, August 25, 2008

Beyond the Box Score: Bendix: What’s Wrong With Clay Buchholz?

Clay Buchholz has gone 0-6 since Clay Felker’s death. Coincidence or not? I think not.

Clay Buchholz has been quite a disappointment this year. After throwing a no-hitter last September, Buchholz has posted a miserable 6.75 ERA in 76 innings this season, leaving many people wondering what went wrong. Upon closer examination, we can see many of Buchholz’s problems stem from bad luck.

The first thing to note about Buchholz’s season is that he has still managed to strike out 72 batters in his 76 innings. This is an excellent sign for his future, as it suggests that Buchholz possesses the ability to make major league hitters swing and miss. On the downside, Buchholz has also walked 41 hitters this season. However, Buchholz’s biggest problem this season has been his teammates.

The Red Sox have an excellent defense, posting a .699 DER while playing half of their games in a ballpark that is very difficult to defend. In fact, once adjusting for park, the Red Sox’s defense is second best in baseball, behind only the Chicago Cubs. Yet this year, Buchholz has seen an inordinate amount of his balls in play become hits. Buchholz currently sports a .345 BABIP, the third highest BABIP of any pitcher with at least 70 innings this year (poor Kevin Millwood and Ian Snell). Buchholz does have a rather high line drive percentage of 20.9%, but this is not terribly high and hardly explains his high BABIP. Rather, Buchholz has simply been unlucky.

Repoz Posted: August 25, 2008 at 11:07 AM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: red sox, sabermetrics

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1. OCD SS Posted: August 25, 2008 at 12:08 PM (#2915223)

Having watched most of Clay's starts, it is insane just how many little bloops, dribblers, and errors have hurt him this year. That said, as these things have continued to happen Clay has managed to have visceral meltdowns as an immediate response. Instead of taking the hit and stopping the bleeding he winds up trying to cauterize the wound with napalm.

And then it gets turned over to the Red Sox bullpen.

2. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: August 25, 2008 at 12:20 PM (#2915228)

As Mike Emeigh said in another thread, it's pretty hard to get that BABIP if you're not getting smoked regularly.

3. villageidiom Posted: August 25, 2008 at 12:26 PM (#2915232)

villageidiom's Law of Sabermetric Myopia: When reality doesn't match expectations, the default assumption is that something must be wrong with reality.

4. Textbook Editor Posted: August 25, 2008 at 12:28 PM (#2915235)

Other Red Sox pitchers' stats with men on base, for comparison:

SITUATION / BA / OBP / SLG

Beckett (234 PA): .268 / .322 / .435
Matsusaka (250 PA): .205 / .312 / .329
Lester (304 PA): .268 / .310 / .368
Wakefield (225 PA): .224 / .318 / .365

As the article points out, Buchholz's BABIP is not that out of whack when no one is on base (.315), but is stratospheric (.402) when runners are on base. This could be SSS rearing its ugly head, but these numbers generally back up the feeling I've gotten watching his starts--he just seems to fall apart when runners are on base. Some of it may be flukey, but some of it is reality--it's not just being unlucky that is plaguing Buchholz.

5. The Marksist Posted: August 25, 2008 at 01:54 PM (#2915282)

It really bugs me when people point at high BABIP and shout "bad luck!" First of all, calling it luck is a little misleading - seems more accurate to call it random variation. Not a big difference, granted, but the word luck has a value judgement attached to it. Second, and more importantly (as Textbook and Emeigh (via Slinger) point out), high BABIP can be the result of a very real, non-luck-related problem (melting down with runners on base, grooving fastballs in hitters counts, poor command, etc).

A lot of "luck" has nothing to do with luck.

6. JPWF13

Posted: August 25, 2008 at 02:10 PM (#2915291)

It really bugs me when people point at high BABIP and shout "bad luck!" First of all, calling it luck is a little misleading - seems more accurate to call it random variation.

what's the difference?

"It seems random chance has operated in our favor"
"We got lucky"
"That's what I said"

As the article points out, Buchholz's BABIP is not that out of whack when no one is on base (.315), but is stratospheric (.402) when runners are on base.

.402 is way above the Rusch line- collectively non-pitchers (when guys like Cirillo and Pena are brought in to pitch an IP) give up a BABIP of .330-.350

IOW even if a BP pitcher is on the mound your BABIP should be lower than .400

7. Kyle S at work Posted: August 25, 2008 at 02:29 PM (#2915305)

I also don't think there's a difference between bad luck and random variation, but neither mean that Buchholz hasn't been pitching poorly with runners on base. To me, "bad luck" encompasses a spectrum events that span from a great pitch resulting in a slow grounder just out of the shortstop's reach to a curveball that Clay was "unlucky" to hang that resulted in a titanic blast. One of the great misconceptions of sabermetrics is that luck limits itself to marginal plays that could have gone either way... I think it plays a much greater role than that.

8. madvillain Posted: August 25, 2008 at 02:39 PM (#2915315)

There is a great discussion about this on SOSH. Buckholz clearly has mechanical problems when there are runners on base, and watching him against the White Sox a few weeks ago they were on display. His delivery is rushed and his upper body flies open and he leaves pitches up. He also has a hard time getting them over the inside part of the plate to righties. Changing mechanics with runners on base is a physical symptom resulting from a mental problem -- lack of focus and confidence.

As he matures as a pitcher these things should take care of themselves. His K rate is still there, so it's not like he's lost 5MPH off his fastball or something like that, but the walks and meatballs left up in the zone or disconcerting, but no so much that he won't be a good pitcher eventually -- again, he's a young pitcher and these things happen to almost all of them.

That said, his stock as a player has fallen quite a bit, and his development has been set back a year. He'll need to regain confidence in the minors before getting another shot in MLB, probably in late 2009 or spring training 2010.

9. The Marksist Posted: August 25, 2008 at 04:16 PM (#2915456)

what's the difference?

Fair enough. Probably just one of my many non-sensical pet peves.

10. Textbook Editor Posted: August 25, 2008 at 04:31 PM (#2915476)

Re: #8, I would still be pretty surprised not to see Buchholz in the starting rotation in 2009 to start the year, unless they go out and get Sabathia or something (which I suspect will not happen). They have 4 slots more or less filled (assuming everyone is healthy):

Beckett
Lester
Matsusaka
Wakefield

And Buchholz is arguably still the best internal option for the start of 2009 for the #5 slot, again, assuming they don't sign Sabathia or someone else.

11. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: August 25, 2008 at 04:56 PM (#2915503)

And Buchholz is arguably still the best internal option for the start of 2009 for the #5 slot, again, assuming they don't sign Sabathia or someone else.

Wakefield has to stick around too. That's not a foregone conclusion.

12. Textbook Editor Posted: August 25, 2008 at 05:23 PM (#2915534)

Re: #11, yes, no doubt. Wakefield could certainly retire, but, if healthy, I expect he'll be back at it (at least to start 2009).

You know, we're never mentioned in the Sabathia sweepstakes, probably because we're not located in SoCal, but with the Manny $, the Schilling $ and the Tavarez $ coming off the books (even with adding Bay for 2009), plus an expected cut-rate deal for Varitek (or parting ways completely), it would seem there is the money there to play with if we wanted to make a full-out push for Sabathia... But I suppose now that he's seen how good he can be against NL hitters, he's likely to want to stay there and mop up than move back to the AL.

13. Mike Emeigh

Posted: August 25, 2008 at 05:36 PM (#2915552)

Changing mechanics with runners on base is a physical symptom resulting from a mental problem -- lack of focus and confidence.

It could also be a response to being under additional pressure, above and beyond the norm (which may indirectly be related to a lack of confidence, I suppose). I've seen this happen on occasion in the minor leagues when the big club's brass is in town - it happened with Gaby Hernandez last year and with Chris Mobley this year.

-- MWE

14. villageidiom Posted: August 25, 2008 at 05:41 PM (#2915557)

But that kind of stuff isn't captured in his pitching line... so it must be luck.

15. Fred C. Dobbs Posted: August 25, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2915751)

You know, we're never mentioned in the Sabathia sweepstakes, probably because we're not located in SoCal, but with the Manny $, the Schilling $ and the Tavarez $ coming off the books (even with adding Bay for 2009), plus an expected cut-rate deal for Varitek (or parting ways completely), it would seem there is the money there to play with if we wanted to make a full-out push for Sabathia...

Just curious, and I don't mean to pry, but do you work in the Red Sox front office?

16. Mattbert Posted: August 26, 2008 at 10:44 AM (#2916211)

Buchholz definitely has some issues to work through, but I would be surprised if he does not find success in the major leagues at some point. It appears that he won't be the instant blue chip smash that many expected based on last season's no-hitter and his excellent minor league track record. However, he clearly still has more than enough talent to be a very good pitcher at the highest level. It's just a matter of getting the mental aspect of his game to match up with his physical gifts. Zack Greinke comes to mind as a (very loose) comp.

I think #8 identified some of the mechanical problems Buchholz has struggled with at times. In his last start at Baltimore, he showed those same symptoms: rushed delivery, uncontrolled front side, late arm, etc. Nearly all his offspeed pitches were left up in the zone as a result. To make matters worse, he also showed the "opposite" symptoms by overcorrecting for the original flaws. His tempo slowed way down, he started aiming his fastball instead of throwing it, and his offspeed pitches went in the dirt.

I hope the trip to Portland and working with his old pitching coach will help him straighten out because he's a complete wreck out there right now.

17. Textbook Editor Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:33 PM (#2916232)

#15, not sure if you are serious or not, but on the off-chance you were... no, I don't. My handle really is my occupation.

18. chris p Posted: August 26, 2008 at 12:38 PM (#2916233)

hmmm .. i think they should put him in the bullpen (maybe in AAA to start) to force him to pitch out of the stretch. it's clearly his greatest weekness ... methinks if he can get to the point where he's comfortable pitching from the stretch, all his problems will be solved.

19. The Marksist Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:20 PM (#2916536)

Buchholz's line from yesterday: 7.0IP, 5H, 4R, 3ER, 8-0 K/BB, 7-5 GO/FO

No walks is encouraging, and first-hand reports at soxprospects.com were generally positive. Of course, it is AA so it's likely he felt more comfortable pounding the strike zone than he did in the majors.

20. SoSH U at work Posted: August 26, 2008 at 05:26 PM (#2916546)

#15, not sure if you are serious or not, but on the off-chance you were... no, I don't. My handle really is my occupation.

I think he was asking because of the use of "we" in your post.

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Beyond the Box Score: Bendix: What’s Wrong With Clay Buchholz?

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